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$2.25 1/8/2010 could be broken? $11.25 might be the next breakthrough.
All Time High! - Great last 3 weeks - $24K (unrealized) profits in my LiCarboniteE-Bag. partial sells "click-click on ascent "and buybacks "Heavy G's" while I ride the coaster, increasing share counts.
DCIX Diana Containerships - Be careful your stuff is not on the Paradise Papers. Companies are not disclosing when 10% rule is in effect for SEC disclosure like Apple and many others.
Fidelity shows 11:07 CDT at 10.16 and Google has it at 9.76 - Is that possible?
Scottrade - TD- said they would get the accounts for LACDF - LACDD handled sometime today - system wide - Friday 11/10/17
LACDF is now LACDD ???
Account is going crazy with false numbers?
I thought the old guard - WLCDF had already done all this, drilling holes, testing, pilot plant in Germany, already making hectatone from the clay byproduct. Done with the holes and now's its time to start producing? What is the hold up?
If we apply total Lithium Carbonate production in 2020 at 425,000 tons
If LAC/LACDF is 10% share of world production at average retail of $16,500/tonne this comes to gross sales for LAC of $595,212,000.
Gross margin of 54.6% comes to $325,202,000
Take out selling GA and interest depreciation, taxes - 10%
That Leaves Earnings to apply to shares of 292,682,000
The 10-15% profit of gross sales is not a true reflection of pricing at 16,500 levels.
If shares are at 411,970,000 then EPS is $0.71
If shares are at 1,000,000,000 then EPS is 0.293
If we apply a 19 PE ratio to these EPS then 2020 targets are: 13.50 / 5.56
If we apply a dismal 10 PE ratio then 2020 targets are: 7.10 / 2.93
This controversy appears to have always been present in the instability of these countries whose GNP: Argentina 585B is equal to New Jersey and Chile at 240B is equal to Louisiana will always be present.
It did mention POSCO and LAC as part of another failed capital/equity injection for those who are too high a risk and never making it to the production finish line.
It appears the SQM/LAC might be arriving at production or are the 6 bags 1/2 ton, each just bags of rice going to Feed My Starving Children?
POSCO ADR Korean - making deals and pilot "brine" plants across the junior Lithium mining market. What do you guys think? - JV with all these players and POSCO owns the Int.Propery (IP). What is their take of the EPS to come?
1. Goes from 50% recovery to 80% recovery on brines.
2. When it rains or the sun doesn't come out then the brine pools are severely hampered in time frame to get 99.9% LCE battery grade that can sell for 20,000 - 30,000 per tonne in Japan. That comes to $10 - 14 USD/lb.
3. Their process does it in 8 hours versus years and months?
4. Cost per pound is claimed to be equal or less than historical typical brine methods with other extracted marketable compounds without having to add more base compounds?
5. Mentioned earlier about Li PPM in US brine lower than the Triangle. Also much longer drying out periods per static product output.
6. Environmental impact is many factors less with this method - The Flamingos will appreciate in the Triangle.
Found the second flaw in report:
The report assumes 145 grams of lithium per kWh or 10 kg per 65 kWh battery - this is only theoretical best case scenario which does not occur anywhere in the world on a commercial basis.
The reality is 320 - 400 grams per kWh or 28 kg per 70 kWh battery (published 53 kWh). All EV battery systems have hidden kWh (+25%) in order to keep degradation under control and avoid lawsuits. "Warranty of Merchant-ability".
This report is seriously flawed in that they are taking lithium reserves at mined and refined pure numbers. The numbers of reserves or resources are gross ore numbers (LCE) that have not been refined to a usable lithium carbonate number.
3,000 kg of LCE yields 320-400 grams of purified lithium as input into the batteries to make 1kWh.
If Kings Valley comes online per their report:
If global production hits 200,000 tonnes
If average retail price/tonne is $8,000 USD
If margin cost per tonne is $556 USD
If LACDF percent of market is 35% greater than Albemarle
If 50% of Gross margin makes it to final EPS
If LACDF holds outstanding shares at 291,970,000
If fair PE ration is 27.31 - SQM current number,
Then EPS would be $0.89
Then Price of share would be $24.37 (34.8 multiplier on price of $0.70)
Economics of this stock:
If global production hits 300,000 tonnes
If average retail price/tonne is $8,000 USD
If margin cost per tonne is $2,100 USD
If LACDF percent of market is 18% equal to Albemarle - likely not but optomistic
If 75% of Gross margin makes it to final EPS
If LACDF holds outstanding shares at 291,970,000
If fair PE ration is 27.31 - SQM current number,
Then EPS would be $0.82
Then Price of share would be $22.35 (31.9 multiplier on price of $0.70)
Sensitivity of these numbers:
If global production hits 200,000 tonnes
If average retail price/tonne is $6,000 USD
If margin cost per tonne is $2,100 USD
If LACDF percent of market is 10% equal less than Albemarle
If 25% of Gross margin makes it to final EPS
If LACDF holds outstanding shares at 291,970,000
If fair PE ration is 27.31 - SQM current number,
Then EPS would be $0.07
Then Price of share would be $1.82 (2.6 multiplier on price of $0.70)
I am showing some more conservative numbers from using my friend Google Search from several sources - Stanford and USGS.gov
World Reserves are 18,000,000 tonnes (2,204.62 lbs) - highest of 39,500,000 tonnes.
Taking the high end that comes to 39,499,953,025 pounds of LCE - raw
Taking processing yield and purity at 70% and 19.05% respectively that brings you to 5,267,318,735,831 grams of high grade lithium for battery production.
It takes anywhere from best theoretical of 158 grams per 1 kWh Lion battery to 400 grams. 320 grams/kWh seems to be the norm inside from more than 1 study/estimate.
Using 320 grams/kWh this comes to 16,460,371,049 kWh
If a Tesla Model 3 gets 215 miles per charge and gets 4.095 miles/kWh then this comes out to a published battery pack of 53 kWh. Add 25% for loss over life to hold warranty claims and life time published range, the battery would have an un-published (real) rating of 70 kwh.
This makes a Total world domination of lithium reserves dedicated purely for Tesla at 235,148,158 cars. The US produces 10-12 million cars per year. Add other countries of another 25 million? and this comes to approximately 37 million cars. Thus world consumption of Lithium reserves at 100% EV adoption worldwide would be 6.7 years.
Never found the "Billions of cars"
At current annual production of Lithium of 300,000 tonnes - this only makes 1,428,748 Tesla model 3's /year.
GTAT Bondholders $434M
Does anybody know what was done with the $434M in bond money?
Did GTAT deposit this money, did it slide across as an electronic transfer to a party outside of GTAT?
What is on the books - asset side - that corresponds to the debt in bonds of $434M?
Did Apple pay GTAT for the furnaces on top of the 3 traunches? The bills that were sent every 2 weeks
How much does a Furnace cost if GTAT were to sell and install one at my facility?
How many installed lit furnaces are in Mesa AZ?
Says Mesa APPL has looked Startup Only.
?? Next Court Date?? October 15 or 21 ??
Quote from a board - http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1798826 as follows:
Poster's name - Siaz - 10/9/14 7:20pm local time
This plant is right down the street from my house, I drive past it daily. They haven't seemed like they have been producing anything. It has more or less just been construction and setup for the past 12 months. The building was already built but empty when Apple bought it and GTAT moved in.
Another Mesa AZ news outlet quotes Mr. G (CEO) on 8/11/14 - "plant is nearly finished" - sapphire soon. Production slated for early 2015.
MacRumors article yesterday: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/10/09/gt-advanced-wind-down-operations/
The facility, which was purchased and outfitted by Apple and run by GT Advanced, has operated for less than a year. Approximately 700 employees are employed at the manufacturing plant, where GT Advanced was rumored to be creating sapphire for use in Apple products like the Apple Watch and the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the deal between GT Advanced and Apple may have crumbled following the former's failure to deliver sapphire iPhone screens for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. Apple was widely expected to use sapphire screens in at least some models, but both the iPhone 6 and the iPhone 6 Plus continue to feature Gorilla Glass displays.
GT Advanced will again appear in court on October 15 at a hearing related to its wind-down request. Apple, for its part, has again said that it plans to focus on "preserving jobs" in Arizona and that it will "work with state and local officials" as it considers its next steps.
GTAT/APPL Planned Sabotage?
Hindsight is 20/20: If true as reported not be me:
1. GTAT sells faulty furnaces to Asian Sapphire manufacturer(s) and pays a small "rectification fee"?
2. APPL fails to pay final traunch of $139M to GTAT to put things in Default status?
3. Bankruptcy filled - APPL say we are surprised. Blink Blink of right eye. (no question mark here)
4. Bankruptcy court gets the "Sealed" "tied up all in knots" - my stomach included Judge. (not one here either). October 15 Deadline to put a small piece of meat on the table? Beef, pork or Chicken?
5. FUTURE: Parties decide on an "after the fact Buyout" since the appearance and subsequent actions look the same at this point as if Apple owned GTAT back in November 2013 during the "unbelievable" SOW. "Non compete" without market rate compensation is not very legally sound!!
6. FUTURE: This buyout should accommodate the stock holders and the bond holders. This is because Apple will take Sapphire to market and is extremely viable "going business concern".
You read between the lines!!
Faulty Furnaces sold to TeraXtel??
Quote from previous link/article:
In addition, the company’s finances were further strained by compensations it had to pay to sapphire manufacturer Tera Xtel for delivering faulty sapphire furnaces, said Roger Chu, the research director of LEDinside.
When did this happen, how material? Mr. CEO might be in further hot water failing to report to the news outlets timely or maybe after all his insider sales prior to 9/9/14?
SEC "SOW" -like a Buyout Agreement!!!
Maybe it can be construed as such now that Apple has strong armed (Walmart's) another american vendor out of its spoils and failed the American Corporate schema (read stock holders).
1.6 MEPA needs some clarification - How can APPLE get away with "Cost" - the correct way is Cost plus overhead and some guaranteed minimal profit margin = "Cost Plus"
Are the books "assets" at Cost or cost plus? These "furnaces and equipment" are not normal fixed assets since they are titled to APPLE if they paid their submitted invoices every two weeks.
Section 10 Intellectual Property is the true Buyout Agreement proof in my mind.
The last failure of APPLE to pay $139 million puts the total Agreement into Default and the ownership of "Furnaces" and "Sapphire IP" (the most important for US, GTAT stock, Samsung, and Corning, and any other suitable buyers who like Arizona manufacturing facilities).
You are dead wrong - IF I would have been able to peer into the non-disclosure agreement between GTAT and APPL and found that Apple had Intellectual property rights (IP) as part of the security of the loan as well as the furnaces - I would have not invested in nearly as strong.
It was worded as technical expert onsite engineers / liasons to Mesa GTAT/ Apple to get the "furnaces" going up to production speed all in 6 months or less? Even the time frame is now shocking as well as we were expecting some Sapphire in late October - Pre Xmas.
I did not know that "furnaces" were GTAT's - I thought from my due diligence that it was Apple furnaces and the money was for technical expertise.
How are we as investors going to trust Apple with American manufacturing jobs with this kind of "apparent" crap!!
In China , the government owns 51% period and Apple cannot make these "maneuvers" on Chinese soil while they crank out ipads and iphones - I do own 3 ipads and 0 iphones FYI
I hope you are right!! $30K plus hit for me if I can salvage at a buck a share.
Samsung have any cash for GTAT to make an end run around APPL?
Nevada GigaFactory is looking stronger after this news:
SolarCity Corp announced that it is launching its solar service in Nevada for the first time. The nation’s largest solar power provider will make it possible for many Las Vegas area homeowners to install solar panels for free and pay less for solar electricity than they pay for electricity from the local utility. SolarCity can allow Nevada homeowners to go solar for as little as $30 per month, with design, installation, financing, insurance, monitoring and a performance guarantee included.
This would allow hime to sell readily to employees and subcontractors housed in Nevada for the building phase of the plant and beyond.
The 90 second battery swap means that Tesla's current proprietary standard for changeable battery packs could become the industry defacto standard when they can build standard battery packs for all EV car vendors and have them at their EV stations along with Starbucks and Apple Genius Bar's.
GM's LG Korea battery joint venture for Chevy Volt and Cadillac and any future EVs will not be able to compete in price with Tesla's battery pack at 30-40% below competition once the Gigafactory comes online with Lithium Carbonate from Northern Nevada's Western Lithium Corp (WLCDF). Thus GM will be forced my open free capital markets to sell Tesla battery packs, electric motors, and controllers.
Reno Nevada will be the EV battery capital of the world and the shortest train route back to Tesla's car plant. Reno might become final assembly for the install of the famous battery pack for Tesla's heading East of the Rockies. This alone will save Tesla $800 per car times 500,000 units and putting 400,000,000 to the bottom line every year.
Couple the Gigafactory's need for plastic ceramic battery liners via Polypore (PPO) and no longer needing to worry about patent infringements by the Japanese and Koreans. Let them fend for themselves to keep the chemicals proper in their batteries. American Ingenuity being utilized on US Home soil before it leaves on a tanker or jet and then reverse engineered and showing up in a Chevy Volt.