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Ultra-small batteries powered by viruses
MIT researchers claim dramatic performance increases
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MrT's NOTE: For trends in the 21st century, think way outside the box. Our assumptions concerning fuel sources, technologies, and what is and is not possible will probably be as wrong as the judgements that human beings will never fly. If this is true, then how will we ever discover a significant trend before it has unfolded more than 50 percent? Keep the faith. It is more possible than you realize, although in the short run it appears difficult. The work we do here is designed to pay off months from now.
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Iain Thomson, vnunet.com 07 Apr 2006
http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2153668/viruses-assemble-ultra-small
Researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) are using viruses to create tiny batteries that can store up to three times as much energy as conventional power systems.
The team, led by MIT professors Angela Belcher, Paula Hammond and Yet-Ming Chiang, genetically modified a virus so that it attracts cobalt oxide and gold, and assembled the metals into ultra-thin wires just six nanometres in diameter.
The viruses can be cloned to assemble lithium batteries ranging in size from a grain of rice to a full-sized product.
"Once we have altered the genes of the virus to grow the electrode material, we can easily clone millions of identical copies of the virus to use in assembling our batteries," said Professor Belcher.
"For the metal oxide we chose cobalt oxide because it has very good specific capacity, which will produce batteries with high energy density.
"This allows it to store two or three times more energy for its size and weight compared to previous battery electrode materials. And adding the gold further increased the wires' energy density."
Furthermore the viruses do not need a special environment and the reaction takes place at room temperature, lowering the production costs of any virus assembly system.
Experts estimate that current battery technology performance improvements will be limited to around eight per cent a year, but this new technology could lead to a dramatic improvement in these figures.
The energy density of current batteries is a major sticking point in the development of long lasting laptops and electric cars.
Bliss, just so we are clear, I'm not questioning Airedale's labelling of the 80-week lows. I agree with him! I simply pointed out how the last 80-week low is different. And even there, I'm not saying it can't happen, because it did! The only thing I said was that on that chart, there was not much of a dip at the 80-week low and that was different from the previous ones.
I might add that it seems particularly interesting given the size of the dip at the last 40-week low and 10-week low. Again, I'm not sure what this means. Cash has speculated that the 4-year cycle peaking now may have held the 80-week cycle up or kept it from falling lower. This is an interesting hypothesis. I see that possibility and others too.
What interests me is the possibility that a bubble may now be forming.
That's all, folks! Have a good weekend.
BB
Aire: What's with the condescending tone. It serves no purpose whatsoever.
I simply pointed out that on your chart, the recent 80-week low was an anomaly, an exception in the 80-week lows that you had marked.
I did not say such exceptions could not happen. Obviously, it did. I have questioned why and how it happened, but ultimately this is useless speculation.
Referring to the next big correction in the $NYA, I had written: "I know one thing for sure: I will recognize it when I see it." What I meant was this: When I see a short opportunity, I will recognize it. I didn't say that I would recognize the top--just the next correction. You're correct--it may or may not be the top.
If there is any question about what is and is not condescending, let me clarify. "if you *ever* get to study the hurst course you will *eventually realize*..." This simply serves no purpose other than to boost your own ego. You do not know what I know or don't know. I am asking you kindly to stop.
I prefer to keep the discussion to the facts or information stated. I pointed out that the recent 80-week low was an exception in your chart. The statement obviously stands. What it means or may not mean is open to question. I am speculating that a bubble may now be occurring, but as I pointed out, the speculation is a waste of time. When it pops, a short trading opportunity will appear.
BB
Tech: Thanks. The answer is yes. Currently implementing system applying human research, opportunity selection, and system oversight. Semi-automated scanning. Market and stock-trading anomalies will be screened out by human operator with trading system switched on and off by central operator according to specific rules. Upon reset of market cycles and/or target stock demonstrating potential opportunity, trading system will be armed to monitor for specific trade-on conditions.
In my opinion, stock market opinions, bullish/bearish outlooks, trading judgment calls, risky decisions, and the idea of ego-identity from trading are old-fashioned and soon to be eliminated. Price behavior is subject to the rules of software. This simply hasn't been fully realized yet because the market puts out so much data, much of which is random and virtually useless.
From time to time, I have mentioned a present-moment-oriented trading system which is entirely non-speculative. This is how software would view the market. The human mind has trouble grasping the perspective. The cold, hard world of software sees it differently.
You may fear robo-trading now. The future world of trading is software vs. software. Own the right software and you can enjoy golf while making money. It frees the conscious mind from the responsibility of the decision. Once the statistics prove the case, you can relax and breathe easy.
BB, the machine
Airdale: Fascinating chart with an interesting anomaly. Every 80-week cycle low marked came at a significant valley--except the last one. This is what I have been puzzling over ever since, and lends weight to Blissbull's observations. Looking at this chart, the last significant pullback was at the 40-week low in April/May 2005. One could even argue that the last real bubble release in the $NYA occurred at the last 80-week low in August 2004, and that the runup since has been excessive.
Clearly the trend is up, and arguing about when the bubble is going to pop is a waste of time until it actually does. I was at a friend's house a while back digging through bathroom magazines and found an amazing newsletter published in 1996. It was saying that the tech stocks were overpriced and would be subject to a major pullback soon. Well, the writer was absolutely correct but 2 years and 4-6 years too early (1998 four-year low and the big bear market in tech stocks 2000 to 2002).
I will say this: The runup in the $NYA has been matched by only a few stock markets in history, and they have all met the same end. I don't know when the next big correction will hit the $NYA. I know one thing for sure: I will recognize it when I see it.
Until then I will be waiting and watching.
BB
Chart formations: The market can twist any formation--no matter how clear and definite into any other formation it likes. Any head and shoulders formation--one of the most reliable--can be twisted pretzel-like into an upside-down head and shoulders and magically become the base for a large move up. The recent head and shoulders in the DIA became a diamond became a megaphone. Now toss a penny to determine whether that megaphone is bearish or bullish.
A similar problem exists with Elliot wave analysis where just about any formation can twist and turn to--surprise, surprise--become something else altogether. Just in the last 12 weeks I have seen astounding proclamations--including my own--turn to dust.
For these reasons, I have gravitated to the Hurst system of trading principles where we get projections but always verify with present market action. So we did get some downside projections in December that failed--or to put it more technically--were undershot. The higher-than-expected 80-week low signalled the market would likely move higher, and it has. Still there have been many crosscurrents that have led to incorrect assessments all the way around. In fact, what I have noticed is that the market has become so diverse and varied that just about everyone gets to be correct. GOOG crashed, the NASDAQ is bearish, the $NYA has been bullish but a bit weak this week, and the doggy DOW has turned into a mighty bull. Wow. Oil sank, gold lost its glitter, and copper lost a penny or two. Everyone gets to be right--and wrong--and just what in the world of money is going on?
My funny-mentalist picture looks like this: A post-industrial U.S. trying to maintain leadership and quality of life by printing paper dollars and running enormous deficits in nearly every department in a world where the great trend of the century is a flattening of prices and quality of life with China/India/third world countries becoming the producers of the world and absorbing our paper. The excess paper is inflationary and globalization/automation is deflationary, and the net effect is ever-increasing imbalances and price distortions, the consequences of which are nearly impossible to predict. We live in a world where just about anything could and will happen, and just one symptom is the pseudotrend in commodity prices in the metals and energy. Another symptom may be increased volatility in stock market indices because new forces will be increasingly at play over the next 10 years--including shifts in dominant currencies, excessive paper, and market trading automation.
A trend just now going vertical is trading automation, and the day when the average Joe will trade world markets through sophisticated computer algorithms is fast approaching. Imagine systems that automatically monitor 100 leading stocks and automatically enter and exit trades to maximize returns and protect capital. I'm building such a system right now--the Trading Automation Project (TAP). The consequences are incalculable. It could lead to a new bull market, or at the least, enormous volatile waves. Just one consequence of this historic turn will be what Blissbull has been hinting at, and that is, what happens when everyone is using automated stop losses. Every market advance leads to new opportunities and vulnerabilities, and every problem leads to the next solution which yields the next problem.
Note regarding the broker/dealer index:
Is there anything in Hurst principles that would help us distinguish between a bubble that is near a top and a chart ready to climb to new heights? I don't think so--at least not in this case. Given where the market is in the 4-year cycle, I suspect the former is more likely true, but this still doesn't tell us WHEN the bubble will pop. So debating when or whether the bubble will pop seems a waste of time. We know it will pop SOMETIME, and until it does, it will go higher. So I can either trade it long--as long as the trend is up--or I can add it to my watchlist and go short when the bubble does pop. Until then, speculating with money or opinion seems like an exercise futility.
BB
Thanks, Chuck. Airedale, you carry a grudge for words exchanged a while back. I apologize. I'm asking you to let it go.
BB
Absolutely unnecessary, Airedale. I said nothing to offend. Anyone can look at several different indices on an hourly chart and see the possible reason for my post. I may or may not be right, but there is good evidence to support my position. As one of the board leaders, you just set one H*ell of a poor example.
BB
I'm counting 2/7 (close of business) as the 5-week low, which suggests mid-day Wednesday, the 15th, as a possible 1.25-week low. That gives us a couple more days to hit upper targets before the 2.5-week low.
BB
Bliss--Still think you could be right--you were just a little early AND you made some great calls concerning gold, oil, and the high-tech flyers. It just didn't have the effect we thought it would--at least so far.
I'm laying low and letting it happen instead of trying to force it.
BB
OT: Ego is the enemy of the trader/investor. It has popped up on this board a lot. The market is absolutely impersonal, and the trader who puts his identity before his analysis will have his head handed to him sooner or later.
Ego causes me to see what I want to see rather than what is. Ego lures me into holding positions I should sell and into buying what should remain untouched.
My ideal is to remain as unidentified with my words as possible, and if I challenge your opinion, this is where I'm coming from.
BB
Duffer: I like the Profunds Ultra funds of which there is a wide selection:
UCPIX
UIPIX
UWPIX
URPIX
What I don't like about these funds is having to wait until after market close to enter or exit--and with some brokers having to place your order one hour before the close. This involves getting in or out a day late or being a genius about getting in or out before the signals are clear.
These funds try to deliver 2 percent for every 1 percent of the underlying index, and therefore are slightly more risky. They work well in a strongly trending market, however.
BB
Bliss, I stand by all statements made.
1. I went to cash just after posting my message concerning a potential rally.
2. Oil is the key to this market. It declined and the $NYA came down--but it did not break. OIH is in an area where it could bounce, and the market will move with it.
3. Bernanke can directly affect this market both through words and decisions. He holds important levers. Period.
4. The setup for a rally was perfect, and it continues to be.
5. If the $NYA fails to break out, if its bases breaks here, it is all over--but not until then.
BB
Bliss, the market is waiting for Bernanke. If he says something stupid, the market is doomed. However, my read is that the market is preparing to take his dullest statement as a HUGE positive to explode upward--even if it only lasts a few days. Then you can go back to your melt-down talk.
We will know if Bernanke has said the wrong thing if the $NYA base breaks, but for now, it looks good. The $INDU is breaking up and out of the diamond/H&S formation. If a back-test holds, it's up and away for a few days anyway.
I'm prepared for either move--up or down.
BB
Bliss, I don't like hedging and sometimes it just doesn't work in my experience. I prefer to trade the absolute edge and to stand aside the moment the market proves me wrong. I may get a larger bite taken away but I earn larger bites to cover it.
BB
A rally *could* precede the crash next fall. (EOM)
Bliss, I'm 100 percent short, but see the setup. Will almost certainly stand aside until I see which way the market breaks. I'm not saying the market *will* go up, but the setup looks great and see the "too pooped quality" as part of the setup for a great bear trap.
Assume nothing.
BB
ATTN: ALL SHORTS
Don't let this market fool you--especially if it seems too pooped to pop. We are setting up for a Bernanke celebration rally--IF the base on the $NYA holds.
* If the base breaks down, all bets are off. *
Do not underestimate this market. Do not assume anything--we live in strange times--a world awash in paper than could potentially create unusual price distortions. If the $INDU breaks up out of the current DIAMOND/H&S pattern, the panic buying could drive it up 200 points, and the bulls will soak in gravy.
BB
Setup for short-term rally here. (EOM)
Here comes the judge. (EOM)
BBH just keeps falling. Same with GOOG. (EOM)
Market may be on hold - Bernanke testifies Weds. (EOM)
Bliss, I don't think Hurst has failed. I do think there is mixed evidence and some market distortions due to energy prices and Fed pumps. The correlations between Fed activity and the market during the last several weeks have never been more clear--although not conclusive. Interestingly, the Fed will stop publishing M3 data in March.
See "FOMC and the S&P 500" on Bullandbearwise.com--and then select the last 90 days.
BB
Aire wrote: "the only concusion one can make using Hurst's principles are the market will move higher."
If you examine *all* evidence, a Hurst analysis could easily conclude the following:
* The trend is still up.
* Probabilities suggest the market may move higher.
* Some evidence suggests the market is rolling over ($NYA50, $NYA200, $NYA having trouble climbing out of a 5-week low when all cycles except 4-year and 10-week are pointing up)
Until the $NYA can break out, we simply will not know whether the market will move higher, and if it doesn't get in gear soon, we will know it is rolling lower into the 10-week low.
BB
GOOG down -9.00 afterhours. (EOM)
OT: That's cool. Bliss made an outrageous call today, and I just know he has an uncanny way of being proven correct. I for one am giving him the benefit of the doubt.
BB
Laugh if you want. Bliss is often wrong on the timing but awesome on the overall outcome and general timeframe. You may not be laughing so hard soon.
BB
From the Hurst perspective, we have to give the market every chance to prove itself. If sigma el is changing, there is no point in speculating until the evidence is in. However, the current situation is anything but bullish. Until proven otherwise, I will read the sector breakouts ($RUT, $XBD) as irrational exhuberance associated with major market tops. Pretty subdued as a blowoff top--but this has been a subdued market since 2003. Looking for lower lows going into the 10-week.
Oil remains the wild card and could jerk this market around in unexpected ways. Volatile markets always shake themselves apart. Every irrational swoop creates new waves of exhiliration and fear, ultimately leading to market collapses. I read this as a market rollover into the 10-week low followed by a lower low at the 20-week in mid-May.
Still, we need the evidence to prove the hypothesis--or disprove it.
BB
Bliss, pop and drop. Good call. Don't know how you do it. :)
BB
From the Hurst point of view, the jury is still out concerning whether this market is bullish or bearish. As Cash pointed out last week, many indices put in left-translated peaks on the 5-week cycle and put in lows that point to a lower 10-week low.
The $NYA and $RUT *may* now follow suit and put in left-translated peaks for the 10-week cycle. They put in right-translated peaks on the 5-week. Until these sectors either put in a lower high or a higher high, we simply won't know for sure.
On this basis, we can trade long with tight stops--and a keen awareness that sigma el could be changing anytime now. The market's behavior in January was anything but a clear bullish signal. Much more consistent with a market top than a major cycle low preparing to launch to new highs. We did see several indices breaking out, however, and so new highs remains a possibility.
BB
OT: Deva, I understand you meant (ment) "read" (red) but I hadn't read it anywhere because I wrote it so you could read (reed) it.
I might prove useful, eh? What do you have in mind?
BB
Bliss, you're right of course. See today's $CRB. (EOM)
The oil sector remains the key to this market. Oil has good support at $63 and a bounce is likely--perhaps more. If you can tell me where the oil sector is headed over the next few weeks, I can tell you whether the market is big-time bearish or not.
Bliss is convinced we go down here, and he may be right. But I'm not sure anyone knows where the oil sector is headed during the next 3 weeks. It is a guess at best for now.
BB
Deva, read what? :) I wrote that in reply to you. BB
Been noticing a trend. Traders have been too bullish on the one hand and too bearish on the other, and the market has been tracing out a path between the extremes. I read this as topping behavior with increasing odds of a substantial move down but later than what the bears expected and perhaps only after whipsawing enough to confuse everyone.
BB
Deva, thanks. Market has been pretty boring lately. No real comments other than I still think the relatively high 80-week low was a fluke--not a bullish sign as we would normally interpret an event like this. Market performance since confirms this. Mixed messages abound (left and right translations, unusual volatility, market overreacting to bad news from isolated companies). A hard turn down into the 10-week low likely. If not in March, then at the next 20-week low in mid-May. If I'm correct about the turn down into March, it would begin soon--next week or the week after.
BB
Thanks, Cash. (EOM)
Cash, perhaps I missed a post. On what basis do we need one more leg down? Thanks!
BB
OT: I'm watching, but having trouble learning your method. :) I admire your conviction and am enjoying how you play the game.
BB
Hail Bliss, King of Bears and Crashes (EOM)