From the Hurst perspective, we have to give the market every chance to prove itself. If sigma el is changing, there is no point in speculating until the evidence is in. However, the current situation is anything but bullish. Until proven otherwise, I will read the sector breakouts ($RUT, $XBD) as irrational exhuberance associated with major market tops. Pretty subdued as a blowoff top--but this has been a subdued market since 2003. Looking for lower lows going into the 10-week.
Oil remains the wild card and could jerk this market around in unexpected ways. Volatile markets always shake themselves apart. Every irrational swoop creates new waves of exhiliration and fear, ultimately leading to market collapses. I read this as a market rollover into the 10-week low followed by a lower low at the 20-week in mid-May.
Still, we need the evidence to prove the hypothesis--or disprove it.
BB
