Airdale: Fascinating chart with an interesting anomaly. Every 80-week cycle low marked came at a significant valley--except the last one. This is what I have been puzzling over ever since, and lends weight to Blissbull's observations. Looking at this chart, the last significant pullback was at the 40-week low in April/May 2005. One could even argue that the last real bubble release in the $NYA occurred at the last 80-week low in August 2004, and that the runup since has been excessive.
Clearly the trend is up, and arguing about when the bubble is going to pop is a waste of time until it actually does. I was at a friend's house a while back digging through bathroom magazines and found an amazing newsletter published in 1996. It was saying that the tech stocks were overpriced and would be subject to a major pullback soon. Well, the writer was absolutely correct but 2 years and 4-6 years too early (1998 four-year low and the big bear market in tech stocks 2000 to 2002).
I will say this: The runup in the $NYA has been matched by only a few stock markets in history, and they have all met the same end. I don't know when the next big correction will hit the $NYA. I know one thing for sure: I will recognize it when I see it.
Until then I will be waiting and watching.
BB
