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SUNW – Falling Wedge
Hi !
SUNW is trading a Falling Wedge pattern in the last 1½ month.
This pattern, once activated generates a buying signal, making the trend to change from bear to bull on this time frame (1-2 months).
Please take a look at my SUNW chart in order to understand my analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=23.0
Right now we have some technical problems regarding the short term, because SUNW has broken it’s long term support last month, and this is a bearish signal…
So besides the Falling Wedge we should also look to some important values like:
- $3.75 (the top of the wedge pattern, and buying trigger reference)
- $3.85 (the old support, acting as a resistance level)
- $4.15 (the descending resistance, and projection of the Falling Wedge if activated)
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
SIRI Technical Update
Hi !
SIRI as touched the $2.21 reference again… today’s session was a week positive reaction, so I should maintain my short positions expecting lower lows on the short term…
It’s important to remember the $2.00 first target (descending support), and the $1.56 projection target for medium term trading.
You should take a look at my SIRI technical charts in order to understand this analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=8.0
A potential rebound can bring SIRI up to $2.45 which is the descending resistance an main upside reference for this stock.
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
AAPL Technical Overview
Hi !
AAPL is on a Bull trend since April 2003, and it’s on ascending channel since last December, trading in a very technical way inside this pattern.
Take a look at my AAPL technical chart in order to understand this analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=22.0
The main reference for this pattern is the ascending support, already with 6 contacts and positive reactions.
The medium and long term time frames are very bullish, but the short term time frame is having some difficulties since late June… The last 3 relative highs where down trending, making a new short term trend line, a descending resistance.
This situation is under control, but it’s very important to have in mind some important technical values:
- $30.20 (the ascending long term support)
- $32.50 (the descending short term resistance)
- $35.00 (the top of the ascending channel)
Overview:
With AAPL above the ascending support the Bull trend is under control, but a break down of this values could project AAPL to $26 price level.
The last contact with the support has generated a strong reaction, and also filled an open gap.
The next target for AAPL is 32.50 where I expect some reactions, but if it breaks this values, the way is opened to a new test on the top of the channel…
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
NDX technical update
Hi !!!
You should take a look at my NDX technical chart in order to understand my analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=21.0
The NDX is starting the week with a technical rebound… Today’s session started to fill the opened gap down from Friday, making 1,352 a resistance level for the next sessions, along with the 1,370 zone, which was the breakdown zone.
From Mach to July, the NDX was maneuvering on a trading range between 1,370 and 1,500… last week’s breakdown projects the NDX to an ugly price target, the 1,245 (target valid for 4 months).
On the chart you can also see the 1,425 zone, which is the next upside reference in case NDX start breaking up the first resistance levels.
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
TASR is reacting near the support level...
It didn't touched the $25 reference, but already trying a rebound... any opinions on this chart?
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=11.msg65#msg65
Jesse Livermore
CSCO Rebound… Technical Synopsis
Hi ! Before you read this post, you should take a look at my CSCO technical chart, in order to understand my analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=20.0
After last week’s big drop, CSCO started this week with a technical rebound.
The reaction point was on the descending support, right now with 4 contacts since April.
It’s difficult to set a main target to this rebound, but there are 2 key values for the short run:
- $20.50
- $20.70
The most important is $20.70 because it’s the short term descending resistance, and top of a tight descending channel trading since late June. A breakout of this value could mean a reversal on the short run bearish trend…
After this value, the main CSCO references are the ema50 ($21.75) and ema200 ($22.00).
Let’s see how the next sessions in order to catch the technical move…
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
DCschmoeka thanks
Thats it... but my point in shotring CSCO is:
Why to short CSCO if you have thousans of other stocks with stronger bearish patterns ?
I got a few shorts on other stocks like SIRI:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=8.0
Jesse Livermore
CSCO: Technical Update (closing longs)
Hello !! you should take a look at my CSCO Technical Chart in order to understand this comment.
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=2.msg2#msg2
I’m done with CSCO… My stop level has been activated…
Probably it will happen some kind of upside reaction on this zone, but I must follow always my trading plan…
This drop is the fourth contact with the secondary support level, and is inside a very tight short term descending channel.
The momentum is not oversold yet, giving some space for further «blood», in the other hand there is no divergence on any momentum indicator (I’m using DMI as a benchmark).
Positive reactions should have the yellow line on the chart (bottom of the medium term descending channel) as a short term target, the $20 level should also be considered an intraday resistance for the next Monday session.
I have some shorts opened on other stocks, and it’s common to say:
«Cut the losses and let the profits run»
That’s exactly what I’m doing right now
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore
CSCO: Tecnhical Chart Update
CSCO is now below the primary channel line, and it's coming close to the secondar support:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=2.0
Below $19.85 I will close my long posistions...
Jesse Livermore
NDX: Red Alert (Technical Update)
Hello, before you read this Post, you should take a look at my NDX Technical Charts, in order to understand my Analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=18.0
Yesterday, the NDX has broken it’s trading channel, making a first selling signal…
Today’s session has begun like a «blood bath», with a major gap down and giving new year lows to the NDX.
Analyzing the Channel pattern, we can calculate a primary price target projection of 1.245, based on the traditional «break zone minus range amplitude».
This price target is valid for a 5 month period (the same has the pattern)
For the short term, we can consider 3 main resistances:
1.360 (The last «physical» relative low)
1.370 (The main reaction zone – yellow on the chart)
1.380 (The descending resistance zone – light blue on the chart)
Momentum is now oversold, but it doesn’t mean anything specific in technical terms… We can consider serious rebound possibilities, but it’s to early to make a move.
Traders on the short side of the market, should stay short for now, and use the 3 resistance levels as stop prices for their positions…
Traders on the long side… should be very careful, because the movement can be really strong this time, and the rising potential is not so high as it looks, specially if compared with the 5 month price target for the NDX index…
What you think about this analysis ?
Jesse Livermore
right now...
I don't have strong up pick...
I guess CSCO is holding pretty well given the blood bath circunstances...
Jesse Livermore
I agree...
The NDX on new year lows...
SPX on the edge of the abism...
Lots of important stocks testing the major support levels...
... And August... The month of the surprises
best regards,
Jesse Livermore
LOL thanks again
I do my best
thanks
probably it was some kind of local network problem... i'm glad its ok now.
bye
Jesse Livermore
Slow ? do you think ?
I think it's normal.. I don't have any problems in accessing it...
Jesse Livermore
SGI: Technical Analysis
Hi !! You should take a look at my SGI Technical Chart, in order to understand my Analysis and the Key Values:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=14.0
Long Term Overview:
SGI is trading a lateral-triangular pattern for the long run, having 4 higher lows and 3 lower lows since 2001.
On the downside we have an ascending long term support, which has been tested last week (low of the year), in the other hand the upside resistance was tested in February (high of the year).
The contact with the support level has generated a first positive reaction, which is bullish.
Short and Medium Term Overview:
This time frame is bearish since last February…
The long term support test was on the $1.27 level, but the main reference for the last months is the $1.50 level, which can be considered a support for the next sessions ($1,50 level was a resistance during late 2003 and was a support level on May, making this number an important trading orientation)
There are several patterns running on this time-frames:
- A slim descending channel since late June
- A downside projection given in July, that has already been achieved on the lows
- An upside resistance on the $1.72 level
- A moving average bearish signal given on July.
- A buying signal given with the DMI (Dynamic Momentum Index) indicator
This situation can make a little confusion for the short run, but it’s possible to make a sort of trading plan using this clues…
Resuming:
Let’s keep the big picture in mind, and remember that we just had an important contact with the main long term support which is working since 2001…
This reference is now on the $1.28 level, and it’s possible that it will be tested again in the short term… this event can be interpreted as a Buying opportunity with the first short term target on the $1.72 resistance level.
In the other hand, a downside breakout of $1,28 would be very bearish, and will invalidate all the long term pattern.
To change the short and medium term trend, we need a confirmation with a close above $1.72, this may open the road to the long term resistance…
Jesse Livermore
CSCO: Technical Update
Hello !
The last days have been «reaction» days for CSCO….
Up and down… and testing the primary support level, the same which is the bottom of the descending channel…
I’m making this update, because I have to use more a accurate technical pattern for this Analysis, using a secondary support level (see chart for details), I have room for maneuvering on my trading plan…
So, my stop level should be placed over the secondary reference, approximately around the $20 psychological spot.
Watch the Chart:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=2.0
Jesse Livermore
CSCO: Technical Update
Hello !
The last days have been «reaction» days for CSCO….
Up and down… and testing the primary support level, the same which is the bottom of the descending channel…
I’m making this update, because I have to use more a accurate technical pattern for this Analysis, using a secondary support level (see chart for details), I have room for maneuvering on my trading plan…
So, my stop level should be placed over the secondary reference, approximately around the $20 psychological spot.
Watch the Chart:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=2.0
Jesse Livermore
SIRI: Technical Update
Hello !
After yesterday sell off, SIRI had a nice session today… retesting the $2.40 short term reference, and making a bit of confusion among short term speculators…
I maintain my short position on SIRI, because nothing has changed on the Technical Analysis overview….
I have my updated chart here:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=8.0
Jesse Livermore
SIRI: Technical Analysis Update
Hello !
After yesterday sell off, SIRI had a nice session today… retesting the $2.40 short term reference, and making a bit of confusion among short term speculators…
I maintain my short position on SIRI, because nothing has changed on the Technical Analysis overview….
I have my updated chart here:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=8.0
Jesse Livermore
ADSX: Do or Die (Update)
Hello !
This is an update of my Analysis and Trading Plan on ADSX:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=13.0
I maintain my position, and my trading plan…
But the NDX move today, may cause me to be stopped tomorrow…
If you look at the chart:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=13.0
We can see that the main Triangle Pattern is still active, and waiting for an upside reaction on the ascending support…
Of course, that if it breaks the support, this scenario is gone
Any opinions ?
Jesse Livermore
XMSR, Waiting for the Technical Signal...
Hello! Before you read this, you should take a look at my XMSR Technical Chart, in order to understand my Analysis and key values:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=15.0
XMSR is a very technical stock, in the last few months several patterns worked perfect creating great trading opportunities…
After a well succeeded H&S pattern in March/April, XMSR hit the downside targets on May, on a major big sell off…
Since then, it started to create an ascending support already with 4 contacts (positive reactions), the last one was yesterday, making today’s session upside reaction…
On the upside, we can easily see the descending resistance line, already with 3 contacts, and making a fourth one on today’s highs…
It’s a bit early to talk about it… but this is a symmetric triangle, a pattern that can provide us a buy or selling signal, depending on what side will breakout…
Right now, the main key values are:
$26,80 (up reference)
$24,75 (down reference)
This values would trigger the next big move on XMSR…. (attention, because this values change every day, due to the leaning trend lines)
The projections are the $31 level on a potential upside breakout of the pattern, and the $20,50 level for a potential downside breakout of the pattern.
So, I recommend a lot of attention on XMSR for the next sessions, as the pattern is getting stretched….
I’m liquid and waiting a signal for my next move on XMSR…
Any opinions on this Analysis ?
Thanks !
Jesse Livermore
SGI: Technical Analysis (05/Aug/2004)
Hi ! Before you read this, you should take a look at my SGI Technical Charts, in order to understand this analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?topic=14.0
Long Term Overview:
SGI is trading a lateral-triangular pattern for the long run, having 4 higher lows and 3 lower lows since 2001.
On the downside we have an ascending long term support, which has been tested last week (low of the year), in the other hand the upside resistance was tested in February (high of the year).
The contact with the support level has generated a first positive reaction, which is bullish.
Short and Medium Term Overview:
This time frame is bearish since last February…
The long term support test was on the $1.27 level, but the main reference for the last months is the $1.50 level, which can be considered a support for the next sessions ($1,50 level was a resistance during late 2003 and was a support level on May, making this number an important trading orientation)
There are several patterns running on this time-frames:
- A slim descending channel since late June
- A downside projection given in July, that has already been achieved on the lows
- An upside resistance on the $1.72 level
- A moving average bearish signal given on July.
- A buying signal given with the DMI (Dynamic Momentum Index) indicator
This situation can make a little confusion for the short run, but it’s possible to make a sort of trading plan using this clues…
Resuming:
Let’s keep the big picture in mind, and remember that we just had an important contact with the main long term support which is working since 2001…
This reference is now on the $1.28 level, and it’s possible that it will be tested again in the short term… this event can be interpreted as a Buying opportunity with the first short term target on the $1.72 resistance level.
In the other hand, a downside breakout of $1,28 would be very bearish, and will invalidate all the long term pattern.
To change the short and medium term trend, we need a confirmation with a close above $1.72, this may open the road to the long term resistance…
Jesse Livermore
ADSX: Do or Die (Ascending Triangle)
Hello !!
In the last 2 months, ADSX has been trading an Ascending Triangle. This pattern is usually used for detecting trend reversals for the short run.
This one has an ascending support, right now at $2.36 and an horizontal resistance line on the $2,75 level. This 2 values should be used for trading decisions on the next weeks (or probably earlier).
The price target projection for this triangle is the $3.47 level, but off course, it’s only activated after a positive breakout of the triangle, in this case a closing price above $2.75.
You Should take a look at my ADSX Chart, in order to understand this price projections:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?board=3;action=display;threadid=13
The main problem right now is how will ADSX react tomorrow on the support level ? since today’s session was another contact on the ascending support…
A closing bellow $2.36 will invalidate this pattern and it’s projections…
On a negative scenario, with a break bellow $2.36, we have 2 main supports as references:
$2.21 and $1.94
My opinion:
I’m moderate bullish… I’ve bought a few ADSX during the end of the session, I have a stop price on $2.32 and a primary target of $2.75 for the short term…
I’m not yet trading the triangle… I’m only trading «inside» the triangle pattern…
Any opinions on my trading plan ?
Best regards !
Jesse Livermore
NDX Target: 1.125 (6 month Technical Analysis)
This is an interesting Analysis made by Rogue Trader.
NDX Technical Chart for this Analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?board=1;action=display;threadid=10
This is a very simple analysis, based on the major uptrend channel and basic time-frame study of the pattern.
- NDX broke the channel in July
- The last upside contact was in January
- The amplitude between Top and Bottom of the Channel was 303 points
- The Channel breakout was at 1.428 on 14/07/04
So the target of this signal is easy to calculate:
1.428 – 303 = 1.125
The timing should be around 6 months.
I posted on the chart a few more scenarios, taking in consideration Fibonacci Retracements and Arc for calculation impact zones and timings.
I’m short on QQQ, NDX Futures, and I’ve also some QQQ Put options with high maturity and in the money.
Any thoughts about this scenario ?
Good trades guys !
Rogue Trader
NDX - Technical Analysis (02/Aug/2004)
Hello, before you read my Analysis is better to take a look at my NDX technical charts in order to understand my Analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?board=1;action=display;threadid=6
In the last few weeks, my main report on NDX is about 3 things:
1) There has been a downside breakout of the Long-Term Support trend line (this support was an important pattern since October 2002, with 3 contacts, being the main reference of the Bullish movement)
2) A new low of the year was recorded at 1.359,20 proving the existence of a descending trend on the 6 month time frame.
3) Although the new low, there has been a positive reaction on that level, the same has happened in March and May, this way we can consider the 1.360/1.375 level an important reaction and support level on this time-frame.
We need to give some time so NDX could define it’s actual pattern, but we can begin to consider a lateral pattern between 1.360/1.520, although, this prototype be likely to breakout on the downside.
Another important information, is that the ema200 (exponential moving average) was also broken on the downside in the last weeks, it was another important reference on the chart, and was supporting NDX for long time. Right now we can also consider this line as a resistance level.
Resuming:
NDX is having a lot of technical «troubles»… I don’t expect to watch the same upside movement we’ve been watching on the last 2 years, but in the other hands, the fact of it broken the bullish pattern don’t necessary means that it should go right away down…
I’m trading the lateral pattern 1.360/1.520, but having in mind that we have ema50, ema200 and the 1.450 resistance level in front of any short term upside move…
best regards,
Jesse Livermore
SIRI - Technical Analysis (03/08/2004)
Hi, before you read my analysis you should look at my SIRI Technical Chart, in order to understand the Analysis:
http://globalspeculators.com/trading_futures/index.php?board=3;action=display;threadid=8
Long Term Overview (2 years):
SIRI is on the middle of a recovering process, after the long drop from 2000 to 2002.
This bullish movement use to have a main trend line, the Long Term Rising Support, which has been broken in the middle of June.
With this situation, the main pattern in SIRI goes from Bullish to Neutral on the Long Term time frame.
Medium Term Overview (6 months):
Since April that we can draw a descending trend line, the Descending Resistance, which is the main upside reference for SIRI on this time frame. This line has been touched 5 times in the last 5 months, and is considered a strong pattern in order to detect changes on the trend.
By the way, the medium term trend is Bearish, with lower lows, and lower highs following each others.
The moving averages (ema50 and ema200) are both declining, but the ema50 is still above the ema200, which means that the Long Term trend is not yet confirmed has bearish.
An important technical aspect is the selling signal, triggered during the long-term support breakout, giving a price target of $1,56 until October. (note: this target is given by subtracting the amplitude between the relative high and the support, before the breakout, to the breakout value)
Short Term Overview (2 weeks):
Since the middle of July that SIRI is trying a Pullback, but with no great results… The main target should be the $2,58 resistance level, and in the most good scenario the $3,11 level (I don’t believe that)
$2,21 would work as a technical support for the next weeks, and $2,00 the support level of the main falling wedge formation (look chart, yellow lines)
Resuming:
I’m selling SIRI, using $2,60 as a stop level, and $2,00 as primary target.
I believe that the Long term trend is changing, and that the short term rebound will not succeed above the first resistance points.
Best regards,
Jesse Livermore