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Agreed. Minoxidil sales in the US are about $1 billion. I'll bet men account for the majority of this sales (a quick Google search didn't yield a breakdown).
Women have no monopoly on vanity.
If this experience is typical it bodes well for Daxxify's ability to compete against Botox in the aesthetics market. Her testimonial almost makes me want to try it, LOL!
I also add opportunistically, but I don't trade in and out.
If RVNC is acquired at a multiple of today's price I doubt you'll care about missing a trade by a few dollars.
I've come to a different conclusion - the way to make real money in biotech is to invest in companies with solid science and good management and then hold long term through all the bone-jarring volatility. All the short term trading would certainly exhaust me and I'd probably lose my shirt. Credit to you if you can pull it off!
Congrats Dew {and all longs) - you sure know how to pick them!
Do you think the company will be bought out before we see therapeutic sales ramp up?
So, according to Atlantic Magazine, Botox may help alleviate teeth grinding syndrome. My guess is it may not show the same efficacy amongst RVNC investors.
RVNC, Well, you did it again, Dew. Thank you. This ride wasn't without its drama but to an Ariad survivor it was fairly smooth. The next year or two will be interesting, if the company isn't bought out before then.
I hope your Covid symptoms continue to diminish.
Dew, Care to share which which muni bond fund (I happen to be shopping for one) Any thoughts on duration in this interest rate environment? TIA
I appreciate your perspective on many issues on this board, but clearly you have not been involved in basic science grant applications over the past decade or two.
I can't speak to the specifics in this article but in general the Daily Mail is where you go to find information on topics like "Royals behaving badly". It may be a cut above the National Enquirer.
Large amounts of NaCl should be consumed with any content from this source.
WVE- Anyone have any thoughts on the broader implications for the stereopure platform concept?
I think ARIA holds the record, but maybe that was over two days.
Good science, questionable management – reminds me of Ariad (albeit pre-Denner). That turned out fine if you held your nose and stayed put. Pretty sure RVNC mgmt has not sunk to Harvey Berger level. I’m adding.
CL,
Mine was not a political post. Like many others on this board I am sitting on significant gains in biotech stocks (thanks in part to Dew and Peter). I am normally a buy and hold guy but this crazy political environment has me worried. I see the Nov elections as a potential turning point and was hoping to hear how others are thinking about the possibility of the Dems taking the House and the potential negative impacts on the entire biotech sector.
These macro-type concerns are my investing blind spot and I was hoping to get some thoughtful feedback.
It looks increasingly likely that the Democrats will take the House. Anyone thinking of taking biotech gains before the election?
RVNC I'll join the chorus thanking you for this one Dew. It's now my largest position and looks like it's only going to get larger. Very helpful in resolving my ARIA PTSD.
That takes the cake. Looks like everyone is expecting something to fall on them.
Yes, amusing that wives (or partners, as we say here in Cambridge) do seem to be a common thread in Ariad stories. Mine was not so comforting and flat out refused to let me put another $100K in when Berger bought a couple of million dollars worth. That investment would have grown into seven figures. She made the right call since in her mind we already had more than enough risk.
Once Denner came on the scene the writing was on the wall (although nothing is absolutely certain in biotech). I hope that no one here is repeating the mistake many of us made with ARIA - over concentration in one biotech stock can be hazardous to one's health. On the other hand I'm now looking out the window of the beach house I bought with my ARIA gains!
I suppose that after Trump's Tweets the word "sad" can't be used without irony, but this is sad in the pre-Trumpian sense of the word. A huge upheaval for each individual and family involved, but I agree that they should have a good shot at quick re-employment. I certainly hope so.
AF underestimated the value of Brigatinib. If it is BIC and takes half the market it will be a billion dollar drug. But several years ago AF was correct about Ponatinib's side effects while Harvey was denying his reporting.
Trying to adjust to life without obsessing over ARIA - so much time on my hands!
Denner was even better than I thought he'd be (sorry 2da).
Last one here please turn out the lights.
Best to all (or most, anyway)
Alpha
Anyone know what iHub's protocol is for message boards relating to companies that are acquired? Will the ARIA board disappear and if so when?
788 may be a promising molecule, but Takeda has stated that they did not attribute any value to it in its valuation of Ariad. That's a fact (not an "alternate fact"!)
It was stated on the call that 788 was potential upside that Takeda did not pay for.
Something tells me we wouldn't have got $24 per share with Harvey at the helm. According to the Takeda call (thanks for posting Gregors) no value was attributed to 788. It was indeed all about Brig, which they predict will generate revenue of $1 billion per year.
From today's Boston Business Journal, looks like Denner skillfully and successfully managed a one-horse race...
Ariad played hardball to boost Takeda buyout price, federal filings show
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2017/01/20/ariad-played-hardball-to-boost-takeda-buyout-price.html?ana=twt
See SEC filings on Ariad's web site for interesting blow-by- blow account of deal negotiations. Denner ran the show and did not disappoint.
I think most here are primarily concerned with minimizing downside risk (especially with the volatility surrounding Trump) and are happy to pocket $24 per share. Given the short time period event risk is minimal (e.g., issues with the FDA). The current gap represents about a 10% annualized return, given depressed biotech valuations many feel they can do better elsewhere. IMO that's a more compelling reason to sell now.
As for me, I'm holding on until the end then sharing a well-earned bottle of nice wine with my lovely wife.
Thirty eight days left. Do you feel lucky?
Logic would dictate taking some chips off the table now. Many on this board held six figures of ARIAD shares - at 100,0000 shares they're getting paid nearly a thousand dollars a day to take the risk of some calamity scotching the deal. Now $33,000 isn't that much compared to $2,400,000, but still.
I've always had a gamblers attitude towards ARIA. I held too much (and like others here I swear I'll never do that again!) But first I'll indulge in this last little bit of irrationality. What could possibly go wrong?
I recognize all those names from the Yahoo board days before it became a cess pool. I started my ARIA position in 1997 so it's a long time ago and my memory is a bit hazy. As I recall Seamus sold out in the 20s a few years ago, mitosis is still around (or at least someone called mitosis, I'm not sure it's the same person).
I added at various times over the years, never sold a share (even when the share price went up to 48 believe it or not). I had a hunch that Brigatinib was going to be good, which is what kept me from bailing after the crash. Within the last few months I came to believe that if the market held up we'd get over $20, I think we all ought to be thrilled with Takeda's price. If Clinton had been elected I'd guess our eventual take out would have been considerably lower. It's hard to say what Trump's going to do as he has a habit of saying one thing and doing another, but I'm glad to be out and won't significantly add to any biotech positions until the dust settles.
If you follow Biomaven and Dew you'll do fine. And don't put too much in any one stock (I definitely had too much in ARIA and although it worked out well I'll never do that again). My exposure in any one stock will not exceed 5% of my portfolio. OK, maybe 10% LOL.
Good luck, JP.
The thought occurs to me that there are several early Ariad supporters, including cruiser and friar tuck, who have since succumbed to cancer. I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting, all of us who remember them and have been fortunate enough to have reached this denouement should raise a glass in their memory.
Dew,
As a long suffering but recently redeemed ARIA investor, I'd like to thank you for posting this. Regarding the "Are you still committed to R&D in Japan?" question, it reminds me of the same question posed to the then CEO of Sanofi when he did the Warp Drive deal. I hope the new administration can eliminate pricing abuses without killing innovation.
I'll be taking my hard earned profits and investing them (or at least some of then) in biotech and look forward to following your board for ideas.
And Biomaven, thanks for helping me develop the conviction to hold on to ARIA. Your decision to buy more just after the crash helped me keep a steady hand on the tiller. Many thanks from my heirs, who are too young to thank you themselves.
Congrats to all. I've been in since 1999 and eventually accumulated way more shares than I should have. My wife and I have had many "discussions" regarding sale of this stock, but I've always been able to put her off.
Now for a big "I told you so!"
My lesson learned - never put too much into one position, especially in biotech. I've made millions, but given the emotional roller coaster we've been on you might say I've broken even.
Good luck to everyone in their post-ARIA life. 2da I hope you hung in 'til the end.
The number Paris has been using in presentations is $2 billion dollars a few years out. Question is how much does BIC get you? Large pharma marketing muscle would be helpful.
The short thesis is that Brigatinib will not be able to take much share in a competitive ALK market and that Pona revenues will not grow significantly any time soon. Hence Denner and Co. will not be able to find a buyer at an interesting price. I don't like the level of short interest in this stock, but I'm betting they're wrong, even though they weren't wrong about Pona's SAEs (not quite sure why many blame Adam F for this fiasco).
Sawyer was one of the many talented scientists who've been affiliated with Ariad over the years. HB's retention rate was terrible, but he did have an eye for talent. Iclusig was Sawyer's baby (sorry TC fans!).
Unfortunately, Harvey never saw a shelf offering he didn't like. We got diluted and he became wealthy.
A key distinction between the HB approach and Denner's MO.
From your keyboard to God's ears. "Max market" = macro market?
Agree with your assessment of Denner vs HB. HB continually took $ out, Denner put $ in. HB wanted to build an empire at our expense, Denner wants to make a return. Let's hope he's as smart as we think he is.
JP, note 1rst line for Zykadia vs 2nd line for Briga. This is good news for Briga.