Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Getting similar calls here. Twice already. I am assuming there’s a proxy battle underway.
Getting similar calls here. Twice already. I am assuming there’s a proxy battle underway.
Same stellar results here. On V for 3 years- no colds flus or COVID symptoms
RAF, this brings up a question about European sales. My current understanding is that Lovaza is not acceptable in Europe currently. If that’s the case doesn’t that bode especially well for V sales in Europe? Or perhaps my understanding is wrong. Would appreciate input.
BO of $16
Let’s just say that if V also helps combat COVID-19, even if it’s a small but measurable increment, the combination of positive factors for prescribing this medication should be enough to skyrocket sales volume. I’m not convinced it will happen but I would be happy to see that result.
ORB, I think you’re on to something. (As opposed to “on something”.). A friend of mine who is fond of recreational drugs, wine, etc. is always up for a good conspiracy. Even when he acknowledges the real experts he reverts right back to the tantalizing fantasies. I think he likes the extra mental stimulation it provides. I urge him to take more walks...
I don’t expect BO or settlement until appeal status is fully determined. This is dead money until appeal status or some other catalyst pushes stock price up. You don’t make ultimate deals when you are undervalued as is the current status. Don’t expect partnering revelations from management until late second quarter or later. Don’t expect appeal ruling for at least six months either.
I don’t see how Amarin can settle with Hikma or Reddy at this point, since it would not overturn Judge DU’s ruling. They have to appeal. Settling (with anyone) gives them no protection against other generic companies.
JL, I couldn’t agree more with your ruminations about “prior art.” Just this morning I read Siddhartha Mukherjee’s article in the current New Yorker (Title: “The One and the Many”) which includes historic perspective on vaccine like arts practiced in China and India as far back as 1100. And yet vaccines normally get patent protection all the time. Great article, by the way. I highly recommend it.
Friday the 13th appears to have arrived a day early.
Or is tomorrow more of the same?
Bought more today, and will continue to buy over the next few days.
Thanks HD. This hopefully will help people make best efforts to stay uninfected.
I expect settlement within 5 business days and here’s why:
AMRN likely has posed settlement offer, but with the proviso that defendants have XX hours to accept terms. As it appears the legal proceedings are trending in AMRN’s favor, future settlement offers will have less generous terms. (That may include defendants paying legal fees of expensive AMRN legal team. And with recent additions to counsel this is not an insubstantial consideration.)
Going into full trial and losing might well cost defendants even more, so isn’t it in their best interests to settle before the judge makes any more moves, rather than wait and see if something sticks? Nothing so far indicates to me that the judge has allowed defendants anything of great potential value in recent proceedings, so the writing appears to be on the wall. Time for defendants to take what they can and go away.
I say we see settlement before end of day next Friday. Otherwise the settlement offer gets reduced or goes away entirely.
Happy New Year and New Decade folks! I am sure it will start with a bang for all AMRN longs.
As much as many of us would prefer to go it alone in the next decade, everything AMRN management has done since FDA expanded label points to buyout. Can’t blame them, given the years of headwinds and continued challenges. It’s time to get Vascepa out to as many as possible. Thanks to all the salient posts that have given me hope over the past 7 years. Especially JL, HDG and TTE. A lot of drivel on this board but it’s still the best source of information and analysis. Thanks to all and all the best to you!
What is “baked in” at current PPS?
As far as I can tell, peak revenues of about 2.5 billion.
If you believe that’s all this drug can do, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
Never thought I’d be adding more at this stage, but couldn’t resist!
And to think this is happening on Friday the 13th!
“Are you on EPA therapy?”
That’s the question we are going to hear on everyone’s lips for the next generation.
Confirmation Bias has done very well for me here. Not so much for the confirmation bias of people like PYR and several others.
Even for 2020, if Amarin manages to get to 1.5B mark GIA, then why exactly would anyone want a BO?
I don’t prefer a buyout if AMRN can get to this level of sales, but I sincerely doubt they will get a chance to prove it. Too many big players out there want to be selling Vascepa. The offers are already being formulated and discussed.
Writing on napkin here at Blue Bottle coffee:
2020 revenues (GIA) get bump from expanded label, better insurance coverage, conversion of Lovaza scripts, international sales, continued sales force growth (past 800 to ??), settlements with generics, etc.
Combined factors should push sales growth around triple (1.5b) for 2020, with steeper grow curves with each quarter.
2021 and 2022 and 2023 revenue growth should be annual double if not more. Additional indications and uses kick in as well. Margins improve as well.
That’s 9-10 billion by 2023. Even this may be conservative. No way BP doesn’t see this, and realize that potential goes well beyond $10 billion annual revenue peak. Well beyond.
Clearly the incentives are already in place for buyout discussions. AMRN’s reluctance to hire and delaying entry into EU market should not be interpreted as steady-as-she-goes, GIA strategy. Buyout discussions with multiple entities are probably well along and an announcement will likely follow FDA label decision within days.
Based on above I expect buyout offer any week now, with a combination of $, stock and additional securities not less than $125 ps cumulatively. Minimum $ portion of this will be $75.
IMHO
“Buy when there’s blood in the streets.”
That adage May be highly appropriate today!
I am impressed by the technology used in EVAPORATE to distinguish different kinds / qualities of plaque. Didn’t JT mention the improved testing capabilities over CHERRY study? Regardless, even a significant slowing of plaque progression is a big plus, in my book. If you sold today, you lost out on a lot of upside. Then again, I don’t trade, I invest.
There’s also a monthly patch in the works, I hope, not to mention an implant.
Nuke, you may want to consider giving V a little more time and upping dosage to at least 4g a day. My lipid numbers are finally starting to improve only after my doc upped my dosage to 3 g/day. I’m now well into year two of taking V without any statins.
My canker sore issues completely disappeared several years ago when my dental technician suggested I stop eating...walnuts. I was in such pain, increasing with age, that I went with her suggestion. Unbelievable and complete success. Immediate success. After two years on V I am tempted to try them again but I won’t. Must be some neural virus triggering from walnut skins, we think. I strongly believe V may reduce viral flare-ups.
For you chart readers, today’s chart now shows a giant “V”. Is it a wonderful new “Vascepa Cross”?
I am enjoying Blue Angels practice from our place in SF. The jets routinely fly right over us, which is a bit much, especially for the dogs in the neighborhood (and interestingly the crows as well). Never ceases to provide a good dose of amazement.
Beautiful San Francisco California, JL.
My mistake. Current V prescription through United Health is $40 for a three month supply not a one month supply!
I currently am not getting EPA/AA levels checked, but will ask before next labs in about 3 months.
Here in SF with United Healthcare my V prescription has been covered for two years now. I currently have a $30 monthly co-pay. Blood work showing progress, especially trigs.
I am beginning to think R-IT results made it impossible to request minimal label expansion. Meaning, in the interests of shareholders and in light of R-IT data, AMRN felt it necessary to ask for a much more expanded label and then the FDA felt it couldn’t sign off on it without conducting an ADCOM to cover its you-know-what. Must be very frustrating for management.
I remain long and strong. Still picking up shares when I can. Nothing has taught me the value of patience more than this long long ride with AMRN.
I was having similar thoughts; good to hear yours.
I would like a Vegas 2.0 get together but perhaps September is premature?
What, you make point I have also been pondering. With Alzheimer studies ahead, not to mention EVAPORATE due later this year, why would AMRN feel it necessary to tackle EU approvals or even buyout at this point? I personally get the feeling they have been stalling on certain rollout options specifically to wait for results from EVAPORATE.
I think Amarin management is tabling offers and Europe partner is on hold until Other studies like EVAPORATE are concluded and FDA has indicated review timeline. Why sell now if there’s a chance of major expansion of target group?
Any time the PPS sinks a dollar+ without news it can only mean one thing...buyout, right?
:)
We have been in GIA mode since the Adcom, and some would say since SPA. Now with completed studies, continuing studies, SOC announcement, partnerships in Canada etc the GIA ship has sailed. One more meaningful partnership and the ship becomes a flotilla. Turning the fleet back will be nearly impossible. I’m okay with buyout and would actually prefer to be able to move money to other areas. But honestly I just don’ Think a large pharma or consortium has much time left to get in on this. Either way I am here til the end.
JL, I don’t dispute your claim that EPA/AA ratios are the elephant in the room. You have been dead right on so many matters surrounding Vascepa I generally accept your opinion as gospel.
Having read through all the other opinions as to why Amarin isn’t currently touting this ratio I find some of them compelling. Especially about not giving FDA decision problems with appropriate markers, and IR’s response to KG about prioritizing their sNDA submittal along pre-established ideas of using trigs as markers. Certainly the study results can support that perspective, even if it’s a red herring.
To this discussion I would add that, until the court dramas are resolved surrounding DS competition, they don’ t want to give DS a chance to appear like an acceptable alternative to V. If ITC and FDA can’t get esterified EPA alternatives off the market, then the potential market for V could take a sizable hit if it’s all about the EPA blood levels. And given the obvious reluctance on the FDA and ITC to act, as well as the unusual delay by the court to make a ruling, I think JT and crew are not willing to tout the EPA/AA ratio as the biggest factor in the success of the trial. At least not yet. Hopefully that day is coming.
It may also be the case that commercial labs aren’t currently set up to test for this marker yet - maybe something to do with insurance coverage?
In other news, I was notified today that my refill of V is on back order. My Walgreens in San Francisco is out of stock - something that seems to be happening more often these days. I’m not complaining... I take it as a good sign.