Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[heysfguy]

Writing on napkin here at Blue Bottle coffee:

2020 revenues (GIA) get bump from expanded label, better insurance coverage, conversion of Lovaza scripts, international sales, continued sales force growth (past 800 to ??), settlements with generics, etc.

Combined factors should push sales growth around triple (1.5b) for 2020, with steeper grow curves with each quarter.

2021 and 2022 and 2023 revenue growth should be annual double if not more. Additional indications and uses kick in as well. Margins improve as well.

That’s 9-10 billion by 2023. Even this may be conservative. No way BP doesn’t see this, and realize that potential goes well beyond $10 billion annual revenue peak. Well beyond.

Clearly the incentives are already in place for buyout discussions. AMRN’s reluctance to hire and delaying entry into EU market should not be interpreted as steady-as-she-goes, GIA strategy. Buyout discussions with multiple entities are probably well along and an announcement will likely follow FDA label decision within days.

Based on above I expect buyout offer any week now, with a combination of $, stock and additional securities not less than $125 ps cumulatively. Minimum $ portion of this will be $75.

IMHO