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Austin may get run out of D.C. after
talking truth about Israel military...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/3/27/israels-war-on-gaza-live-rafah-bombing-intensifies-despite-un-truce-call
Peons could draw up more strategy
on dodging frogs while trying to catch
lightning bugs than the Israel military
uses to spare civilian casualties, [opinion]...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE, REI, EGY, pick one and it
went limp on Tuesday...
It's like Elway looking off the deep
safety before throwing deep...
Seems to happen before Easter to give
drivers false hope for cheaper summer
prices ahead...
The deep throw is coming before summer...
Laffer of the day seemed to be Joe saying,
U.S. will rebuild the Maryland bridge...
An insurance company for the ship that
took out the bridge is totally responsible
for paying for expenses to rebuild it...
Daily foo-faa from Joe it seems...
Uuuhhh, it will increase fuel demand too...
So we watch...LJ
It takes a lot of luck to get timing
right on trading reverse etfs...
Only happened to take a break
this afternoon when SQQQ bounced...
Entries for next week are based on
history of April bringing some weeping...
Which is tied to, lucky traders who have
made good money paying taxes...
Older oil sector traders seem more
consistent in prepping for April taxes
in late March...looks seasonal...
So we watch...LJ
Ai will kill the EV auto industry first...
Count that as #1 industry to go...
There isn't enough power now to
fuel more EV autos because Betcoin
energy hog and Ai are taking energy...
No excess energy to add more EV autos
already without more EV usage growth...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/AI-Surge-Has-Big-Tech-Scrambling-for-Power-Supply.html
No, you don't need betcoin...
No, you don't need more Ai programs
to track all your daily activities...
And gov't leaders disregarding the energy
abuse users shows that maybe, just maybe,
global warming is propaganda...
They better get their stories straight before
rolling black outs start coming...
So we watch...LJ
Oil stocks are often coded weak going into
Easter weekend...
tend to bounce back strong next week...
but they have no sympathy for drivers
going into Mothers Day weekend...
History often repeats...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ 10 calls for Thursday were sold
late in day that were bot late
last Friday...
shoulda turned them a couple of times
this week already...
Q drop had a fake feeling to it late in
the day with econ numbers due Wednesday...
Coders are gonna rally Q anyway on Wednesday
no matter what the data is and probably
hold it up going into weekend close...
Wednesday late or Thursday may offer
the better spots at SQQQ reentry...
SQQQ seems due to give a real nice return
sooner than later now...
SDOW also could mirror some weakness...
So we watch...LJ
Overall, that is a high priced OTM option
price on a $10 share price...
.10 to .20 would be more expected
to see on a $10 share price...
Whole lotta premium hype built into
that option price because of price rise...
Folks with good profits riding that debated
selling now would have a tough choice
between selling that 10 call at high premium
or taking the current price for profit,,,
if'n they were gonna play to buy again
lower on any price pull back...
Overall option review only, you could
insert any symbol on the thesis...
SQQQ, highly liquid, only had a few cents
premium on 10 calls today above the
trading price for Thursday calls...
it expands a little bit a few weeks out...
But the turns come cheaper playing the
cheaper, short dated expirations often...
So we watch...LJ
Hate to see new cover plan rolled out...
ram a bridge and close a port,
and blame a sinking economy
on that event...
Never is, dems can't grow an economy...
So we watch...LJ
Gasohol inflation,,,SPY may have peaked for year
was an idea that flew in from out
of nowhere today...
Inflation in gasoline pricing with things
going into slower motion at same time
aren't usually a good recipe...
Peon random thought, of course...
So we watch...LJ
Nvda selling under 50 years of future earnings
based on last quarter's results...
Appears around 47 to to 48 p/e
ratio looking at that...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
Looks more like a hot air balloon ride
in a cyclical industry than stock pricing...
You just want to hop out quick when
the dancing music finally stops playing...
disclosure...still holding vastly underwater
anti-symbol to the pricing...
Been draining cash off other positions,
so haven't wanted to risk more now
betting against the establishment pump
of Managed Money...
So we watch...LJ
Natural gas cash price is still way below
future's monthly pricing ahead...
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGY00/overview
And that is still with some good cold
weather demand in some areas...
Traders are taking hopie pills when
biding up summer lull pricing now...
On that egy, they pay those huge taxes
on production in accounting in the 1st
thru 3rd quarters normally, those recent
4th quarter numbers didn't have that hit
as usual in them...just a watcher note...
So we watch...LJ
$5/gallon gasoline in Cal is good for Ai...
Ai pump loves inflation...
Prices get driven up...whatta pun...
This 2024 period of rising gasoline
prices with weak demand has been
relentless so far...
Reality could see the pump prices Have
to drop after Easter to lure buyers
as weakness in demand returns...
So we watch...LJ
Mass Firing via remote work day notification...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stellantis-uses-mandatory-remote-day-225053112.html
Morale of the story is...
'Don't ask to work from home'...
Nah, the real truth is!...
You can't have big pay raises without
cutting jobs to offset wage cost increase...
So we watch...LJ
U.S. intel gave Ukraine the coordinates to
hit Russian oil infrastructure,
but now Joe says don't use it...
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-stop-targeting-russias-oil-refineries-will-defy-us-2024-3
U.S. politicians in D.C. have two
countries biting the U.S. hand that
helps feed them military thingies...
Just a big circle jerk in the military power
complex to keep dollars rolling into
the defense companies...
And surely you don't think that high
priced betcoin, in it's shroud, is being
used to buy food items?...guess again...
Nvda isn't the only bloated priced company
in this market...
World trade screeching to a halt seems
a clear and present danger now...
And all economies feed on retail spending
more than making thingies now...
I don't need anything with an Ai chip in it...
That tells you where the bubble floats...
So we watch...LJ
Whole lotta junk up today...
most smart money may be out
because resistance looks low...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR needs to start getting hoppy in
week ahead,
to get in better shape for a
run in April...
It doesn't need to get winded and
fall out in an April run...
April is all about conditioning...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ loaded for a pre-Easter sale
extravaganza on the Qs...
Retail shopping hopping keeps up
pressure on interest rates...
So we watch...LJ
Some overpaid jobs in America...
Whoever does the seeding for
college basketball March Madness...
You could almost pull team names
from a hat and do as well...
So we watch...LJ
'and I hope that judge ain't blind',,,
Luv that song...
nice tune to close out week...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ needs NVD to double with a
bubble pop and nvda flop...
Everyone with big money has piled
into the bubble, so why not take a
little bit from the well off?...
So we watch...LJ
did you peek at the price?...
if you did, there is your answer...
so we watch...LJ
Bloated ERX won't drop,,, SQQQ will be new
play to start with popup Thursday,,,
Folks are likely to find disappointment
in 1st quarter results from oil/gas
companies being pumped up now...
Big reduction in cash flow from lower
natural gas price still present...
Memories of lost production in January
are very distant now...
Big tech pumpers seem to be rolling
in for a few days again...
SQQQ...this should be the loading time
now to use for longer term wait for
big pull back at some time...
Averaging into SQQQ as new highs
happen in Qs will be monitored...
04/05 and 04/12 for weekly calls will get
most monitoring for potential low
entry prices on ITM SQQQ calls...
April should bloom some gloom...
Highly speculative thesis...
So we watch...LJ
Jews took another Gaza hospital over...
Innocents killed added to tally...
https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-03-19-2024-a46aed2d25a6d95d9f3d67edcd60dd50
Al jazeera is getting too graphic to
post all those daily kill scores...
N.Y. Times doesn't mention them...
So we watch...LJ
If Elvis was trading for anti tax status,
he might sell a rebounder for a
smaller loss to offset other gains
from the dazzling market...
Good thing for you, Elvis isn't giving
you trading tips...
Ya Gov't wouldn't appreciate it...
And you know Egypt must be 3rd world
anyway based on GRRR, when watching
that egy bounce...
So we watch...LJ
FED has market headed for bigger bruising
by dangling rate carrot...
6% wage inflation is built in by the
Gov't pushing last year to get Union
contracts with big pay raises...
That wage growth isn't pixie dust...
That wage growth gets added into
consumer pricing on Most Items...
What the phock doesn't need shipping?...
Gov't Debt crisis caused the need for
more tax revenue and was behind the
push for big Union wage growth...
Economy already appears in Stagflation
mode with less volume on units...
Big, wealthy Richy Riches are pushing up
stock prices because they don't give a
chit about economy or rates...
They are just ringing up watch boards higher
because they can't grow biz now...
Average folks have limited budgets trying
to pay Higher costs on every item and
can't buy everything they may want to...
Average folks are the drive belt of the
whole economy...
And that has the economy in stall mode...
0 inflation now would still leave average
folks trying to pay for the higher prices...
FED will only lower interest rates as political
move if they do because that will be
ignoring wage inflation pushing prices
higher on items...
Market appears headed for a bruising
when reality makes media headlines...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE may be like comparing the meter
to the yard in inches on that
unhedged production...
My wag would be a bigger difference
in meter and yard percentage in inches
than hedged to unhedged in 1st quarter...
Only a peon wag of course...
Revenue will show higher but doesn't get
to see as much kept due to hedges...
So we watch...LJ
Uncle Sam may be giddy over estimated taxes
due in a few weeks...
May have been a lot of profits made off
tech especially in 1st quarter, 2024
and even betcoin in the quarter...
Some may still be sitting on edge of
the table being held...which is paper profit...
So we watch...LJ
Market could easily correct 20% from high
prices in a weak economy now...
10% correction would be norm for a
better economy...
Diesel demand is staying in lag mode
now as economy keeps slowing...
Market is well past pricing for a perfect
economy without higher interest rates...
Oil price is flat out stupid with low demand
that will get worse with prices higher now...
So we watch...LJ
Jews may be getting oil money backing
to buy weapons to keep killing
the people in Gaza...
VTLE now losing 10/bbl. on oil
hedged at $73/bbl. in 1st quarter...
But nothing in world demand would
ever suggest high oil price so high...
War machines of the world are pushing
to keep that spending up...
Never ends well for economic cycles...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR .76, increased shareholder equity about 65%
in 3rd, quarter, 2023 versus 2nd quarter...
New contract going into motion
propelled the net income to drive
more shareholder equity...
Around 14 million of earnings increase
in 3rd quarter versus 1st half of 2023...
About $37 million of revenue thru the
3rd quarter...
About $65 million is company guidance
projected for 2023 year and recent pr
stated that they expect to meet guidance...
There is no where yet to go and just
compare the company numbers easily
because the company files annual audited
numbers on form 20-F,
Prs put out other quarterly info...
So you have to look at financials given
in prs for 3rd quarter, 2023 and first half
of 2023 to make comparisons...
3rd quarter, 2023 pr link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gorilla-technology-group-reports-results-130000669.html
2nd quarter, 2023 pr link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gorilla-technology-group-reports-first-200400368.html
Financials don't show any noticeable
increases in borrowing in 3rd quarter
when assets grew so much with the
new profits from increased revenue...
$65 million revenue guidance for 2023
with $37 million of revenue thru 3 quarters
booked shows decent revenue possible
for the 4th quarter when filed...
$90 million revenue has been recent guidance
on revenue for 2024 so far...
Not widely followed or easily reviewed
yet doesn't really imply that things aren't
growing and improving...
Peon thesis on not easily followed...
Form 20-F filing should be due by
Tuesday, April, 30, 2024...
So we watch...LJ
Haves figure in unneeded airline travel in their
demand on fuel which helps distort
it to look better...
Only 30% to 50% of airline travel
now might be considered necessary...
True gasoline demand doesn't need to
get lower than the miserable numbers now...
Diesel demand also isn't robust and could
start showing more as it seems that rail
traffic may have already slowed too...
Wouldn't you like to fly in my beautiful
balloon?...
So we watch...LJ
ERX, refiners, 1st quarter, 2009 was probably
last time fuel demand dropped so
much in a quarter when compared
to year ago levels as 1st quarter, 2024...
Sector pricing for oil/gas seems just as
out of line as tech sector to me...
Really stupid, high market prices...
All the oil needed to service spring breaks
weeks is already out of the ground and
refined into gasoline...
So we watch...LJ
GRRR partnered with an established company
with Lanner Electronics...
some Lanner product videos...
REI up, what doesn't cost you more now?...
so we watch...LJ
King Biden keeps U.S. troops in harms way
illegally by if ignoring Law of
needing Congress approval...
https://apnews.com/article/biden-war-powers-israel-gaza-yemen-houthis-c9cfce9a874fbc520ddcc4ef182bf63a
Folks, this is way above the violation
that the King committed with illegal sales
above Laws governing SPR sales...
This violation spends extra money that
has to borrowed every week...
U.S. troops need to be pulled from harm's
way before the Arab nations unite to
over run Israel...
And it that could happen with folks
doing the over running without Gov'ts
doing any authorizing of it...
So we watch...LJ
Israel ups kill count quickly on aid seekers...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/3/14/israels-war-on-gaza-live-rafah-attack-coming-soon-despite-pressure
They don't get to count kills if
they starve to death first...
So we watch...LJ
Opex Friday has potential to stall or
stretch tech capabilities of the
market this time around...
A record number of options are
expected to be on chopping block...
Did some roll over activity on Thursday
in case it causes some big unexpected
price drops anywhere...
At some point, the big prop up in play
could get out of balance temporarily...
hopefully not humpty dumpty style...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE open interest at 45 for Friday
makes ya wonder why price
is 50/share now...
both on sold calls and sold puts...
many of those stranded may let
shares get exercised with a drop
in EPS coming in next report...
Or might roll them ahead if the oil
price looks believable to them...
$73 hedge prices for VTLE mean the
oil price doesn't matter for it...
So we watch...LJ
EGY is worth 3 to 4 times the .56/share
annual earnings for 2023...
EGY appears a public listed front to
me for Gabon and Egypt to collect
massive taxes off oil/gas production...
AKA production sharing agreements...
EGY full year earnings best depict that
versus popup 4th quarters that they
report each year...
EGY has to account for the big production
revenue costs, aka taxes, in the 1st three
quarters of each year typically...
Took me a few years of losing a little in
it and some time to learn it...
EGY hedges based on what Opec expects
so that is worth following...
So we watch...LJ
EGY is forever off my watchlist...
so we watch...LJ