https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826557

nuther loser week for me is nothing new...

bad karma is part Indian heritage

and not black...

no, biggie...blacks need to be in paid

ads and not Indians in U.S....

gasoline demand is probably 20% to

30% higher in Sept. and Oct. of 2024

than it was in Jan. and Feb. of 2024...

Gov't data put out doesn't show that

though because it can't promote what

needs promoting now...cheap gas price...

natural gas could approach zero soon if

folks believe that record oil production

is also happening now also...

I honestly don't believe it with the lower

rig counts ongoing and strong depletion

that comes from the shale wells drilled...

Can't go without a surge of more over

abundant natural gas if more oil production

was actually brought online in October...

Plenty of things to ponder out there...

After Trump loses and it hits freezing across

most of U.S again in January don't bet against

another miracle rally in gasoline demand

numbers to show in gov't data...


Gov't would just connect voting to online

via everyone's social security number

registration if they really wanted to clean

that up too in U.S. voting...

Ask Ai if you need a second opinion...


so we watch...LJ

Dem power money shorting oil over night

may create buying chance in oil

sector companies if low prices hold...

Re-election of Dem leadership very soon

could renew wars for 3 or 4 more years...

A buyer of oil companies on the dip could

dump them if Republicans had surprise win...

Barely over a half a day's supply of world oil

demand floating in storage is backgrounding

for the big overnight drop in oil price if any small

oil supply disruption happened...

2.69/gallon for gas and around 3.29/gallon

for diesel at pump is nice buying area but

hard to count on low prices holding after

the X-mas holiday price scheme ends...

Hyper inflation driving up prices slowing

has not lowered prices, so x-mas spending

could still be challenged even with the

annual holiday, low gas pricing scheme...


So we watch...LJ

Russia and Iran can cut off oil to India

being sold so cheap below market...

And let them buy the higher priced

oil at market price...

Since U.S. may have a president from

India soon that may have helped the

cheap oil price loophole go to India...

then China could scoop up oil cheaper

with their economy needing help...

Moving the cost metric away from the

pre designed choice of the current

leadership can be effective also...



so we watch...LJ

Up to $100/bbl oil price spike before election

day is still possible...

Unilateral move from Opec nations on

oil delivery and not just production short

term is what could trigger it...

Israel doesn't mind using U.S. funding

from ole school war backers in politics to

poke up more unrest...from both parties...

Have thought all along that Opec nations

may have wanted to be poked just before

the election week...

Interesting week ahead to watch...LJ

Israel genocide...Microsoft fired two employees

that supported Palestine relief efforts...

72 more slaughtered in past few days...

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-forces-kill-38-people-khan-younis-storm-north-gaza-hospital-say-medics-2024-10-25/

Lebanon gets a break from attacks...

Israel now bombing in Iran...

Gotta keep up with news from the

unholy land and not get surprised...


so we watch...LJ

NOG sold calls closed...Jews can't stand these

low gas prices before election day...

So closing out on the NOG sold call

position on Friday seemed prudent...

Their production results are looking

good too...


so we watch...LJ

overpriced tsla pump shows trump lost before

he even knows it...

those pump and dump crews think

they have 3 or 4 more years to

launder out over priced shares...

just watch the money flow...

so we watch...LJ

Aces or 8's might win...SMCI or HPE...

which one is the long term hold

for Aces?...

Dell is the street fav, so it moves

anyway...

this peon isn't smart enough to know...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI shows about 5 times short volume

as the slow volume today so far

for the September short date...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/key-statistics/

With filings, how high and how fast

it moves may be more to watch than

what gaps get filled...


so we watch...LJ

That was the pre-hindenburg gap down set up

day on Monday before they released

the short attack...

Who Knew?...other than hindenburg and

Associates...

That gap down around 65ish was after

earnings on margin decline...

How long does the short attack orchestra

keep playing may be what determines

which gap down matters most...


so we watch...LJ

VTLE still seems a good, growing company

in the sector...

VTLE did a deal that wasn't Accretive to

EPS in late 2023 that hurt EPS and

shareholders by lowering the share price...

VTLE still priced lower than some smaller

peers like SD and larger peers like PR...

NOG also looks cheaper by the same

gauges but not by so much, maybe because

of paying a dividend...

Seasonal time to hold some sold calls on

cheap buys with holidays approaching is

a decent way to buy in slowly...

Not much to think could spook them real

high quicker at this time of year...


so we watch...LJ

thesis, hindenburg and Associates on 100% of

the time create a wake of destruction in

order to pursue shorting profits...

India requested more help on the topic...

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/7/2/new-twist-in-clash-between-us-short-seller-hindenburg-and-indias-adani

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/what-is-short-selling-how-hindenburg-used-it-last-year-to-make-4-million-from-the-adani-groups-shortsell-11723379732208.html

SMCI had two separate Audit companies

for the last two fiscal years...

SMCI had to clear Audits to enter the

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes in

first half of 2024...

There seems to be an unreasonable

delay in releasing the 10K filing...

If there was a screwup it couldn't be

changed by any delays...

Cooperating with a DOJ investigation might

be a reason for them to delay...

Anyone building a racketeering case after

the India complaints would need time...

Time to track money flow from India shorting

profits and where they flowed to and by whom

to make more short bets on companies...

Seems bigger item than lil ole SMCI which

has gotten a lucky, growth spurt...

Seems like SMCI should have filed already

and are just dragging for some reason...

peon thesis only, of course...

so we watch...LJ

Can't be racist and not consider all investments

when eliminating capital gains as

a method to lower tax liability...

Market trends lower until Trump loses,

and then valuations on Everything start

dropping before tax laws change...

We thought the last four years were ugly

with hyperinflation...

Hyper-Deflation is gonna be worse...

Just need a liberal attorney to show folks

how it will create massive losses...


so we watch...LJ

HPE 19.31, some backgrounding on cheap Ai play...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/value-investors-buy-hewlett-packard-134012281.html

so we watch...LJ

Hopefully paying it forward comes back

to help SMCI...

Bigger discounts in 4th quarter crimped

margins and sales to Musk companies

came along then...

1+1=2 is usually how things add up...

or in this case subtract...

need that 10K filing...

so we watch...LJ

https://stocktwits.com/jlr_rio07/message/589786167

Please fill that gap down from around $65.60

on SMCI when you get a chance...

Filling that gap down from around $77

might be too much too ask...


so we watch...LJ

China blocking chip shipments from Taiwan

to U.S. could crash U.S. stocks...

About only downside to the Reckless

Israel threats of attacking Iran...

Hardly even notice it elsewhere...

Jews are giving appearance of being over

loaded in oil contracts with demand slow

around the world and making threats...

Israel has done pretty stupid stuff for over

6 months so it wouldn't be silly to hedge

for the market taking a hit...

Been an ugly 3 years to watch...


so we watch...LJ

Aljajeera was Muted in Israel and not BBC

unless I missed some news on it...

Most media at least peruses lightly

over the numbers being killed...

Amount of detail can be limited from

different sources...

One cruelty to animal charge in U.S.

will get you jailed...

One innocent person killed in Gaza

is only a tally on a total board...

Just doesn't look right from where

I come from...


so we watch...LJ

Sold puts need the closing price on Friday

expiration to be above the Strike, or

sale price, to collect the Premium

and also retain share ownership...

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/options?expiration=2024-10-25-w&moneyness=20

Contrary, sold calls require closing price

to be below strike at expiration to collect

premium and retain share ownership...

As noted elsewhere, daily volume on the

42.50 put strike for Friday was high...

It implies expectation by the seller for

the price to be above that strike price...

That isn't super bullish but does express

some belief in price support holding

above the strike price...

Call sellers want price to close below their

strike price at expiration to retain shares...

Hedging can be done with call selling or

put selling at opposite price extremes...

Selling Puts requires more capital in an

account than selling calls...

So the big put volume does appear to

represent some big money activity...

General review and not to give any

impressions to pin any hopes on...

peon thesis only...


so we watch...LJ

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvglg9293ddo

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/21/genocide-unfolding-640-palestinians-killed-in-north-gaza-in-17-days

democratic war party whupped out a chenney...

of all the nerve...

gloom, despair and killing to no end...

Dude, we seem screwed...

global recession that has drove oil demand

down so much will turn depressionary if

the democrats win soon...

canned goods are the investment then,

and nothing using any of your cash...

world will face bigger trouble than us

though, if it makes ya feel better...


so we watch...LJ

four more years of hyper inflation under democrats...

only twisted souls like that idea...

so the safe like gold is prepping

in case...


so we watch...LJ

Oil price is in trouble, betcoin is too silly

to worry about...

Gold should be topping as it appears

the liquidity flow in the economy isn't

growing anywhere now...

The ole dem fav in tech land is getting

it's last toppy farewell tour if the Dems

retake control of W.H. and Senate...

This anemic U.S. fuel demand now rivals

lows of many years past...stunning...


so we watch...LJ

HPE dipped nicely for buyers, SMCI went up...

hard to figure out what to do,

or when to do it...

so we watch...LJ

SMCI needs to file 10K in week ahead

or risk a possible delay in getting

the 1st quarter, 2025 filing out...

SMCI put out info for 1st quarter, 2024

on November, 1st, 2024, last year...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-201300306.html

SMCI needs to get the filing out and

double up the price,,,

need funding to buy VTLE probable dips

going into the election week...

VTLE starter on Friday...NOG added to

on Friday...still light weighted...

Gasoline price at pump now seems cheaper

than oil price before tumble started at

beginning of past week,,,

Oil companies reportedly bot hedges in big

waves in recent oil price spike for the

next year ahead...???...

Me?, would still max out hedging on the

natural gas production more than oil...

peons only have peon ideas though...

so we watch...LJ

Iran is prepping for 4 years of Democratic

control possibility again in U.S....

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Readies-New-Oil-Outlet-To-Bypass-the-Strait-of-Hormuz.html

Blinken has led charge to starve too

many folks in Gaza to be ignored

forever by those folks...

That is the guy up for hot seat if the

Republicans pull of a miracle...

Investigations of Blinken ignoring data on

Israel and still funding them gets no

review if Dems maintain control...

Ahhh, the webs weaved we watch...


China, Saudis, and Iran have a cooperation

pact in anything that ends up happening...

China sub companies control the Iraq oil

industry that U.S. taxpayers are still paying

interest on to fund opening them up...


so we watch...LJ

TSM eeked out U.S. $10 Billion profit quarterly...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-tests-record-high-105610641.html

Guided for growth to maintain pace...

TSM is the largest holding of retail

investors in the Taiwan market,,,who

bot heavily in the past drawdown of tech

prices over a month ago...

SMCI board needs to get the 10K filing

out and put the short blast in the past...


so we watch...LJ

fuel demand dropped and PR pumped up by

institutions like you said it would be...

WTI around 1.90 entry was on watch too,

but they also pumped it up today...

maybe op-ex Friday is for call buyers

this month...naaahhh...

could still see some reality on Friday...

China is getting all the cheap oil they want

from Iran now,,,

and China has built up their SPR if there is

a short term rise in oil price...

U.S. exports are at whim of world economy

without the built in war demand...

so we watch...LJ

U.S. net oil imports dropped about 7 million

barrels in latest weekly report on a week

to week basis,

U.S. oil exports Well below year ago level...

with lower demand and strong oil

production...

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

line item...fuel ethanol showed small

weekly build with lower refinery activity

and lower gasoline inventory reported...


so we watch...LJ

Sweater or not folks like it, it's cool in Dixie...

summer just flew by...

tropical activity is modeled for low

expectations thru end of month for

any U.S. mainland impacts...

it stays warm in Caribbean later in

the season into November though...


so we watch...LJ

Probably have a President from India soon...

And them Indians know how to buy

cheap fuel...

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-Imports-of-Russian-Crude-Oil-Continue-to-Climb.html

So gas prices could drop more later...

She might have checked black on the

candidate application to try to get more

votes, but most likely it is only the Media

that is checking that black box...


so we watch...LJ

If a storm in Atlantic gets up near tropical

storm status by the time it reaches

around Puerto Rico, then it should

start guiding itself north thru a gap

east of Bermuda out in the Atlantic...

If that stormy area stays weaker then it

could keep drifting east toward Central

America...

Long shot is the stormy area in Caribbean

that will move west over Central America,

If it then got pushed north back into

the western edge of Gulf of Mexico....

A real long shot like Milton was...

No models are expecting that at this time...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI gapped down from $77ish area

after last quarterly earnings release...

the lapse in margins was blamed...

Company CC had statements that said

that SMCI had about 600 million of revenue

delayed into next quarter on parts delays

that hurt margins to a degree...

All the other gap down info out there is

from the prepositioning of the short attack

and after it was initiated...

for those keeping score at home...


so we watch...LJ

Oil price could be 40/bbl by election day

if it keeps dropping at same pace

as last Two days...

Holiday on Monday didn't see any

selling in oil companies with the

oil price getting weaker...


so we watch...LJ

FSM, acting like gold from colored countries

isn't as good as Canadian gold...

either picked wrong horse or it

could gap up to play catch up...


muted expectations for tropical activity

toward U.S. thru about mid part of

next week on current line of sight...

hard to guess much further out than that...


so we watch...LJ

diesel at 3.29 or less now is good for

the fall harvest period...

someone has to use the diesel to

make up for lower trucking activity...

wait for Friday to see what the value

price may be for oil companies...

op-ex Friday's can show case pricing...

so we watch...LJ

Gold,,, Biden sending U.S. troops to Israel

is to bolster the war more before

the elections...

old school politics...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/14/middleeast/thaad-missile-interceptors-israel-defense-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

And the warS propagated under Democratic

party leadership for almost 4 years are why the

world economy continues to Contract...

Different countries lower trading with other

countries to retaliate and it creates a

down spiral in economies worldwide...

If Republican control doesn't take over

then there will never be an Audit of how

much of U.S. Weapons Deposits of Billions

of dollars may have been used by Israel...

That is enough incentive to try to sway

elections anyway possible...


so we watch...LJ