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NVDA seems more liked by M.S. than
SMCI...
https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/#:~:text=Morgan%20Stanley%20(NYSE%3AMS),rating%20and%20%241%2C000%20price%20target.
but my adds again on weakness
were higher on SMCI this time...
SMCI currently has a higher Average
price target than NVDA,,,
but that is easy to understood by the
much lower share count of SMCI...
and Dell already had a liquid cooling
product before SMCI that is helping
drive the SMCI current quarter's growth...
Market seems to be large...
So we watch...LJ
June rate drop...Contraction in April in U.S.
manufacturing showing in survey...
https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/Stagflation-Signals-Soar-as-Manufacturing-Surveys-Show-Skyrocketing-Prices.html
Israel pushing oil price pump with
war is temporary price change until
world oil demand improves...
FED lowering amount of whatever they
are selling off their balance sheet monthly
now shows that they know that things
are slowing down,,,
but showed happy face this week...
So we watch...LJ
Asian countries reduced oil buying in April
with higher prices...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asian-Oil-Imports-Dropped-in-April.html
Those bigger numbers of buying in
January and February were likely bot
at cheap prices in November and December
on oil futures delivery...
So we watch...LJ
Turkey halted all trading with Israel,,,
probably more to follow...
so we watch...LJ
SMCI needs to close gap around $859 from 04/30
if it is going to trade above
$1,000 on 3rd like it has done
on two previous months...
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/interactive-chart
Odd how it is down after being
higher for a good spell...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI gap down from 858 close on 04/30
needs to fill to ease the crowd...
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SMCI/interactive-chart
MMs work both ways on their
daily gap/open close markings...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI price targets are getting some raises...
https://investorplace.com/2024/05/smci-earnings-why-the-streets-reaction-to-super-micro-stocks-strong-results-was-illogical/
It likes to bounce around...
Key may be that factories were already
added to for increased production...
so we watch...LJ
SMCI 23ish forward P/E is cheap in
this market...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/key-statistics
If anyone looks...
so we watch...LJ
NVDA RTX reads like science fiction...
https://wccftech.com/nvidia-calls-rtx-the-premium-ai-pc-platform-npus-only-good-for-basic-ai-pcs/
Which company might build the PCs
for such an idea?...
So we watch...LJ
NVDA goes for the gold...
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/How-Gold-Became-an-Essential-Component-in-Nvidias-GPUs.html
so we watch...LJ
VTLE,,,WAHA at negative price shows that
the Gov't needs to put a floor under
that price in Texas if they want to
maintain oil drilling high enough to
keep oil production stable...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Permian-Shrugs-Off-Below-Zero-Natural-Gas-Prices-in-Texas.html
Whoever controls the WAHA gas flipping
to retail markets makes a lick and
surely won't agree...
If NYMEX natural gas drops to a
dollar or less this summer, then some
floor pricing might get bantered about...
Flaring is against the law now...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI forecasts over 30% quarterly revenue growth
over the quarter just reported...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-inc-nasdaq-144129328.html
MMs painted down price to get
better deals after filling gaps...
MMs are slick...
Over 5 billion revenue in current
quarter would be even slicker...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI forecasting 30%+ revenue growth in current quarter
versus quarter just reported...
SMCI forecasts 5.1 billion to 5.5 billion
for current quarter versus the 3.85 billion
for quarter just reported...
CC transcript link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-inc-nasdaq-144129328.html
DLC server rack items caused a
surge in inventory at end of quarter
just reported to meet the demand
coming in the current quarter...
CC actually helped explain things...
It doesn't forecast the distant future,
but it hints the sell off was overdone...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI trails NVDA by over 10 forward p/e
on price now...
That is a pretty good knock down on
a company in a growth sector needed
to get Ai chips more in play...
and SMCI is in loop if AMD captures
more market share from NVDA...
chicken before egg thingy again...
so we watch...LJ
Wildcard seems holding anything with good earnings
in this market right now...
Hopefully, the market got the J.P.
flop out of its system...
Timing is bad for oil/gas companies
reporting now with oil price falling and
little relief from spot natural gas prices...
And of course, this is a market that can
forget that these are high oil prices...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI raised revenue guidance after stellar EPS
growth was produced for the quarter...
https://stocktwits.com/Stockmarketnerd/message/571370486
Profit taking off the price rises
seems to leave a vacuum on buying
for a short period at times...
So we watch...LJ
Etsy and Sbux found a weak 1st quarter
in consumer spending, despite Gov't
data spin that things were strong...
https://stocktwits.com/DonCorleone77/message/571486259
lol, hard to believe the gov't spinsters
get in front of mikes and say odd
things about good times now...
Houston, we have a reality problem...
So we watch...LJ
FED may try to run Dems out of office
by putting off rate relief later
than June...
July would seem latest to get ahead
of growing unemployment when campaign
spending is over and masses of staff
get pink slips...1% surge then?...
September would be too late...
The big wage inflation in union wages
pushed for by the gov't last year is
built in and won't be dropping...
Inflated growth numbers put out in
1st quarter looked a little higher than
Main Street reality too...
FED seems to be trying to paint a
pretty picture of things being better
than they may be...
So we watch...LJ
Oil price dropped with traders dumping war
premium on expectation of Gaza
war slowing that may not happen...
Bogus higher demand spinned in early
2024 now meets period when real
demand should start growing...
And at the same time as heat in Arab
nations uses more fuel to cool and
lowers supply to export elsewhere...
Stupidest looking prop and flop of oil
prices in 2024 by trading powers...
Makes it hard to estimate where true
values for companies shake out in
the oil/gas sector...
Weekly inventory change came due to
increased net oil imports for week...
Trucking traffic on highways being high
now doesn't indicate lower demand
in that distillate area...
So we watch...LJ
Institutions made a ton off sold call action
when dumping all tech stock
prices down together...
Need to pick the creme of the crop
to rise after they have stopped selling...
It is how institutions can hold positions
long term and improve returns...
So we watch...LJ
SBUX seemed to have a solid miss...
https://stocktwits.com/wallstengine/message/571333945
Question isn't the economy...
How does a coffee selling company
miss in a winter quarter?...
Too many working and not enough to
sit and drink coffee?...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI has Ai related products for NVDA, AMD,
and INTC...
https://www.supermicro.com/en/solutions/ai-deep-learning
click on GPU Optimized Systems to
review closer...
Liquid cooled options add to choices...
Interdimensional or playing the field...
So we watch...LJ
So the market tanks and oil price drops,
so why is U.S. Dollar up?...
On the Ai chips, the company with
the contracts to get chips to go into
products are in the lead,,,
Company already in that loop, should
have some advantage on the hard
side too...perhaps...
ARM is really the company in the cat
bird seat as long as Ai keeps rocking,
but seems priced in at its high price...
NVDA leadership is tied to TSM contracts
and their OpenAi connection...
Need to find a decent oil play during
this flop period...
So we watch...LJ
AMZN beat got whupped like SMCI
beat in after hours...
https://stocktwits.com/NewsByNick/message/571329500
What happens in afterhours stays
in after hours...
SMCI only has smidgen of sector sales
in comps to DELL and HPQ...
It is the much lower share count of SMCI
with a high price tag that shocks folks...
Oil price being brought down on Tuesday
and maybe Wednesday should give out
company price deals along the way...
The over priced oil for most of 2024,,,
now goes into period when higher prices
should start looking more correct,,,Opec
producers use a lot more of their own
production to cool in summer and it has
already started warming up there,,,And a
lower supply for world markets will occur
unless Opec+ increases oil production...
Just between us...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI, if every company reported .87/share higher
than expected, the whole market
might implode...
NVDA was a small snag in after hours...
SMCI was a small snag at 4 times more
than NVDA in after hours...
This whole stupid day may have been a
set up for the wheels to kiss the ring of
J.P. with a rally coming next...
SMCI stunned me with the good numbers...
Peons are often easily impressed though...
ERX put calls for 70 were closed today
to not leave any profit on table...Oilies could
bounce with everything else...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI, started buying after hours below
$786 gap fill area watched for...
no idea why it moves either way...
so we watch...LJ
I apologize, the lowball price prints didn't show
after Friday close, or on Saturday
or Sunday for Smci or Nvda...
https://www.investing.com/equities/super-micro-compu-historical-data
https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
The price drop was to bring them
lower to get them closer to the high
side of p/e ratios on companies over
long term in markets...
No idea how to explain the lowball print
prices showing for Friday on either now...
Amd did show the gap fill, But if you can't
see that High P/E, you don't need to
look at any charts...
My bad, everything appears lovely now...
So we watch...LJ
crack, refiners have room to run down
more in price...
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/traders-scramble-for-us-storage-as-distillates-demand-disappoints-3406244
refining more gasoline is how we get
lower pump prices...
so we watch...LJ
Around $787 gap open from Friday didn't
fill on Monday...
If it doesn't fill on Tuesday, then
will be eyeing puts before close...
MMs marked the spot for retreat
for some reason during rebound after
dip expecting weak ER...
ha, if any become cheap enough
to even buy...
when put prices don't go down when
call prices are going up, it has to be
a sign that some want to profit off
selling high priced puts...
strictly looking at technicals and nothing
to do with company prospects...
Nvda not moving much on Monday
when this one did adds reason to
watch chart gaps...
A penny saved is a penny made...
so we watch...LJ
Lots of trash stock symbols being posted
on stocktwats board for GRRR...
And those posters may not have any
shares in GRRR...most look focused on
junk symbols for flips...
Avoiding distractions is easy...
so we watch...LJ
FED needs another rate hike to try
and get the excessive pricing in
raw land to come down...
So far they haven't dented that
over priced area...
So we watch...LJ
China economy losing lots of Russian exports
shows that rebound is ghosting
everyone watching for the China
economy to rebound...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Chinese-Exports-to-Russia-Are-Declining.html
Hand Seng pricing is up too high
like tech monopoly company P/E
ratios are too high...
The Abnormally high tech P/E ratios
aren't a sign of better things ahead, but
more a sign of excessive pricing in a
very concentrated area...
So we watch...LJ
Why in the phock were oil stocks up
on Monday?...
Refiners just posted a terrible quarter
as regular followers expected...
Now refiners will go into a margin war
in 2nd quarter competing for weaker
demand with more refining back online...
Oil companies posted weak 1st quarter
with cheap natural gas prices which
won't change at CASH price in 2nd
quarter for revenue sales...
Refiners are also at highest prices that
I remember ever seeing them...
A good ole price shake on company
prices seems more plausible...
And why in phock is tsla up when buyers
don't want their autos anywhere?...
It is A big green lie for climate change...
tsla ceo pushed betcoin in past and it's
a pure dee energy hog...
tsla ceo now pushing Ai which is another
pure dee energy hog...
Tsla is the most deserving company ever
to go under for playing the watchers...
So we watch...LJ
Oh yeah, it seems slower out there,,,
oil price dropping and market dropping
should happen at same time...
installer for internet satellites said
he was surprised how slow it was...
spotting big foot or tsla up are both
pretty rare events now...
1st of month funding for may is likely
coming in today and tomorrow and early
for may, so that will also not help...
toss an inflation adjustment on gdp and
it should yield negative versus only year
ago costs and look more in line with
orders for futures goods...
so we watch...LJ
? AI killing program unleashed on Gaza
blamed for the genocide spree...
https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/
Ai may be the scapegoat if Israel
gets scolded in future...
No idea about this article source...
Heck of a court defense though...
So we watch...LJ
Big Foot video from Colorado...
CASH, ended up with largest Percentage cash
position last week that I can
remember since fall of 2019...
2019 was on a profit taking binge,
while this year has been more tuck
and curl mode moving...
Doesn't seem like the Friday week
ago ending week was a fluke, and
hope to be less gambler till we
wait for more weakness confirmation...
Don't put off till May what you can
do today...
has been the play book approach...
Will buy a gap filling play in the
right spot if it comes out of the blue...
so we watch...LJ
SDOW or SQQQ are decay plays that
only get used short term periods...
And the calls lose just as easy with
less money outlay...
Some calls might get the bid hit on
Monday on SDOW if futures hold
up until the opening...
Over night is no indication of what
happens the next day though...
So we watch...LJ
SQQQ next target entry on Wednesday afternoon...
Amzn reports Tuesday and could
push it up a lil more...
AMD also reports and seems likely
a potential disappointment...
SQQQ target entry on Wednesday would
be in position before Aapl reports on
Thursday...nothing they say can change
that current market for them...
And that will have most of the money
on the table by then after many big
companies reported...
High current prices for folks and no
rate relief potential are back lighting...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE didn't expect $20/bbl war premium
when they hedged after acquisition...
Israel added the inflation in oil...
We have to be fair about their choices
and when they made them...
If U.S. could keep the Red Sea open
like China can keep the Taiwan Straight
open safely, oil price would be cheaper...
So we watch...LJ