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FFS and the Amarin village
We all have our ways of trading. We should not as group keep throwing knives at each other. I personally like when FFS adds to the board and have found it helpful. I for one should have sold in the twenty's but I did not and still have a lot of cash invested in AMRN. I did reduce my position on the run up to 9 this year and feel good about that. My base is less than $4 a share so I still feel good about my chances. It helps that I sold my company before the Cap gains hike that is coming and have someone else managing the proceeds. So lets quit being bitter to each other and welcome all views in to what the future holds for AMRN.
PT
FFS Thanks again for your TA insight. Very helpful. You should be thinking about starting a trading board.
PT
FFS as I have stated you been right way more than wrong. If you are right on this call then you should start a trading site because I for one would pay to follow you.
PT
Thanks for the TA FFS. It is much appreciated.
PT
Great find SoCal!!
FFS you have been spot on with this stock most of the time. Great explanation of the charts. Keep it coming.
PT
Don't be so sure we are 98% lost. There is a reason they have not fired the 800 reps. There is a reason that have stopped talking about going generic. This will be a VERY unique case. I am not happy with Management at all but something is cooking.
Don't get me wrong the road we have is long and the view is crappy. Odds are very low but we will not know how low until we see their plan.
ON HDG I find it funny that in the 7 plus years of posting he has never wrote a post without making English mistakes. The post in Markman is not that way. Maybe he just took his time or maybe, nevermind.
PT
I agree the case yesterday was a big deal. It makes the generics take pause. Here is a footnote from the first trial.
In a footnote, Judge Stark distinguished the instant case from typical ANDA cases in that this case involves an at-risk launch. Cases such as Sanofi v. Watson Laboratories Inc., 875 F.3d 636, 646 (Fed. Cir. 2017) involve the ordinary Hatch-Waxman framework, “where a claim of induced infringement is filed before the generic has launched its product, and necessarily, before the generic has even attempted to communicate with any direct infringer.” (D.I. 411 at 3). In those cases, “the focus must be on intent, rather than actual inducement.” Id. In this case, GSK filed its case almost seven years after generic product launch. Therefore, GSK’s inducement claims “are not based on a hypothetical, but instead must be supported by sufficient evidence as to what actually happened during the relevant time period.” (Id. at 3-4). Reliance on a label and speculation about what may occur in the future cannot substitute for actual evidence about what actually occurred in the past.
This case will likely be appealed.
Now the intent will be in the supplier agreement. They will have to agree to buy a ton more then the marine label. Huge issue for them and now with the lost yesterday. Interesting times for sure.
PT
CC If it was obvious why would the FDA make them run a 250 million dollar trial? They would not accept Jellis. I am not saying it wont be challenged but the biggest health org in the world did not think it was obvious. I would say they qualify as a person with ordinary skill...
PT
Guys I am in for a donation. Very slim chance. What I am pissed about is the strategy he laid out yesterday is insane!! Try and outrun the generics supply. Is he joking??? He did NOT even mention AG.
The only real way out of this mess is to go generic tomorrow. Be first in the market and starve them out. Fire most of the sales team and conserve cash for EU. We would have over 500 to 600 million in sales so we would be very profitable.
It is my guest they are doing so back room negotiations to supply product to the generics for a fee. I hope not.
Scorch earth is the only way to move forward. We could have a AG and beat them on their own field. If this is a 3 billion dollar drug then we could control at least 50%.
Worst management ever!!!!
I did not think the Marksman reply was that bad. We all knew the score. Here is the catch that we know and so do the generics. 70% of their sales will come from Reduce-It indication. It might take a little while but we will drag them back in to court with hard evidence. It might take some time but we will have our day. I am not blind and know the road is long but the Generics know they will be infringing and the market right now is not where it will be. the stock is under value and most of us know that.I still think we might see a surprise in the next 60 days.
PT
I would say with the majority of the scripts being written for Reduce it indications this could come in to play. The Author is from Fish and Richardson. https://www.fr.com/files/uploads/attachments/Skinny_Labeling_Inducement_of_Patent_Infringement_Nov-Dec-2010.pdf
Correct me if I am wrong, Our patent's should protect us even if someone makes synthetic EPA.Our composition is base on amount of EPA in each pill. So in my mind they could not sale the product if we win the our court case. EPA is EPA no matter what generation it is.So if that is the case they need us.
PT
Buy more if you can. Just got more.
Everyone just take a deep breath. I understand this is not good but the value of Europe is between $10 and $15. There will be an appeal!!
More from IR
Hi Scott- To follow up:
Amarin has no indication that there was a change to UnitedHealthcare’s 2020 Commercial or Part D formulary coverages of Vascepa compared to coverage in 2019.
UHC is often slow in covering new drugs and new indications. Moreover, their commercial formularies have historically been outliers with regard to the entire category of Omega 3 products – including generic Omega 3s – which have been covered on the Non-Preferred Brand tier with a Prior Authorization requirement. And, UHC’s PA criteria for the Omega 3 category has historically restricted access to patients with Triglycerides > 500 mg/dL.
Now that Vascepa® has an FDA approved indication for CV risk reduction, we believe that UnitedHealthcare will revise their PA criteria for Vascepa to reflect the updated label. As a result, we believe that Vascepa’s access in the UnitedHealthcare Commercial business will improve during the course of 2020.
Currently, Vascepa is covered by UHC Commercial plans in the Non-Preferred Brand tier. In order to offset the higher co-payment amounts associated with such formulary coverage, Amarin continues to offer the $9 for 90-day co-pay card program to help Commercial patients minimize their out-of-pocket cost for Vascepa.
In Part D, Vascepa continues to be covered without restrictions in both the AARP and UnitedHealthcare plans. In the AARP Part D Plans, Vascepa is covered in the Non-Preferred Brand tier (as are generic Omega 3 products). In UnitedHealthcare plans, Vascepa is covered in the Preferred Brand tier for the majority of lives.
Amarin continues to engage with payers regarding their coverage of Vascepa. Within 24 hours of receiving FDA approval, Amarin communicated Vascepa’s new label to all major payers. We have meetings scheduled throughout January and February with multiple plans, including some of the largest national payers.
Hope this provides more context,
Elisabeth
IR response
Dear Scott- Amarin has no indication that there was a change to UnitedHealthcare’s 2020 Commercial or Part D formulary coverages of Vascepa compared to coverage in 2019.
I hope this helps,
Elisabeth
Wow!!! Been a Long time coming. Good luck everyone.
Paul Choi rantings in terrible. Not sure how he even works for GS or anybody.
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/paul-choi
Well I Guess I am not the only one who has asked about this.
Hi Scott- Thanks for reaching out.
We are aware of MRC’s activities. I am not at liberty to comment further.
Thank you!
Elisabeth
Elisabeth Schwartz, Sr. Director of Investor Relations, Amarin Corporation plc
440 Route 22, Bridgewater, NJ 08807
Direct Number 908.326.2569
Email: elisabeth.schwartz@amarincorp.com
I was responding to BAA about his statement of AMRN releasing top line. Follow the tread leading up to my last post.
AMRN is a Public company and had to release top line because it was a material event. The evaporate study is not being conducted by a public company. No results will be release.
AHA presentation states.
Late-breaking abstracts and presentations are embargoed until the day and time of presentation and no information may be released before then. Failure to honor embargo policies will result in abstract being withdrawn or barred from presentation.
I do not think ANY information can be giving out. Some in the study have already crossed the 18 month threshold. I do not think the good Dr would risk breaking the embargo by releasing anything relating to the study.
PT
I am sure someone has posted but just in case.https://twitter.com/GPUWorld/status/1175098400238374913
That is a lot of excitement for something that is not a game changer.
PT
I agree the timing of the offering was strange. Which leads me to believe that some new information cause it. GS and JPM as you all know were the runners and have a reputation to protect so my feelings are its positive. Imagine selling close to half a billion to wealthy clients and saying oh my bad. Could it be a better label than we expected? Could it be new guidelines-statement from AHA? Did we need to show the FDA that we had plenty of firepower for the label? Did we need to show BP that we have the cash. I am guessing that one or two of these to be the reasons.
On looking at the value of the stock since the offering and the emotions that go with that. I have stated on this board before Sept 24th what my holding were. I have not sold a single share. So yea it sucks and plays mind games with you. Its not everyday you lose a couple of million. I don,t get too excited when it goes up 5 and the same when it goes down 5. I am not planning to holding this for another 12 months unless BP buys it out with shares. I will then lighten my load and keep a small amount.
Its my opinion GIA is not a good strategy. It will take too much time and BP has the structure in place today. Their margins would be a lot better. One sales rep to sell several products to the same Dr. Reducing the sales cost and expense. I do not believe JT or his leadership really wants GIA. Most small Bio's leaders love a buyout on there resume.
Last thing is the BB. They should report around the 15th. That could give us more clues. If they sell some it will hurt the stock. If they buy more or hold it will help the price and give us some assurance. I feel that could be the last possible negative event before label expansion. The next 60 to 90 days could bring another 3 year protection, a label that we did not see coming. The evaporate study that could be historic. Exciting times are ahead but could be in for a little more turbulence.
The real last thing. JL don,t worry about us "lucky" ones that would not know how to invest our winnings and losing it. Its called 10% cash and the rest in low cost index funds.
My average cost is 3 and my Price target 34.
Here is the Twitter feed.
"Eicosapentaenoic acid in combination w/ EPHA2 inhibition shows efficacy in preclinical models of triple-negative breast cancer by disrupting cellular cholesterol efflux"
— TerraPharma (@TerraPharma1) May 23, 2019
"...we sought to investigate the anti-tumor effect of..Vascepa.." $AMRN
https://t.co/Md1NXgrE7p pic.twitter.com/KXv58sIavJ
JL is this what you are looking for? http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6430703
PT
I have seen it all. Kiwi holding and JL is running. Look this stock has not change but the market has. Keep am eye on market cap. Right now its telling you that EU is at 2 billion and the USA is at 3 billion. A low normal sale price of a company is four times sales. That's telling me that EU sales will be 500k a year and the US sales will be 750k a year. Now I am in the camp that GIA is not a good idea and that will hurt the stock. JL and many others don't share this belief. This is a company that should be and will be sold. It does not have that reach and resources to see this amazing product to it's potential. You guys sell a little to make yourself sleep better. JP Morgan is coming up and might see some movement. This is not a $100 stock but could be a $40 to $65 stock if the cards are play right.
Now this is interesting.
NOVO's head of drug discovery seems to acknowledge that Vascepa could become "standard of care". Hopes to test STT-5058 antibody drug against them some day but admits "will be a while" before tested in humans. $AMRN https://t.co/SLBMykyZUm pic.twitter.com/C0fYqNLJwt
— TerraPharma (@TerraPharma1) December 17, 2018
Received from IR
Hi Scott- Great question. I had to dig into the data a bit.
Yes there was a 38% RRR in a population with lipid values similar to the STRENGTH study. As per that data regarding consistent results, data is reported for results in the subpopulation with TG>200 mg/dL and HDL-C <35 mg/dL and the result was a hazard ration of 0.62 (or RRR of 38%). This was not the primary endpoint of the study. We did not enroll patients intentionally based on this criteria. But it was a pre-specified sub-population. See page 17 per the following link:
https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/7eed9f2b-3f7a-493f-9113-99d981a198b1.
I hope this helps,
Elisabeth
Elisabeth Schwartz, Sr. Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Amarin Corporation plc
1430 Route 206, Bedminster, NJ 07921
Direct Number 908.326.2569 | Mobile 201.674.7876
Email: elisabeth.schwartz@amarincorp.com
_________________________________________________
Notice to Investors Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: Recipients of this message who are investors or potential investors in Amarin Corporation plc. (Nasdaq: AMRN) are reminded that any forward-looking statements included in this message is subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results to materially differ from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned to not place undue reliance on such statements and to review the discussions of forward-looking statements and Risk Factors in our annual report as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
From:
Sent: Thursday, December 6, 2018 12:44 PM
To: investor.relations@amarincorp.com
Cc:
Subject: Citi Call
Hi,
On the call with Citi yesterday JT said the following about the strength trial “But I hope they succeed. They're talking about results in 2020. They're studying a slightly different patient population. They're studying patients with elevated triglycerides and low HDL. Elevated triglycerides, they defined as 200 above. We had a 38% relative risk reduction in that higher risk patient population.”
What 38% reduction was he talking about. Is this reduction from reduce-it? Is this information that has been published or soon to be published? Just need clarity.
Kiwi, I came across this stock many moons ago from a stock site called Bio-Run up. I remember at the time I invested in 3 stocks. AMRN, SQMN and EXAS. I began researching several hours a day on all 3 stocks. I remember the morning that we got great phase 3 results and the stock went to 19. I had about 50k shares but did not sell because of I had not held the stock for a year and did not want to take a 40% tax hit. After ADCON we all know what happen and rode the stock ALL the way down never selling a share. I sold my SQNM around 4.50 and my EXAS around 25 and plow all my liquid assets in to AMRN to end up with my 394k shares. Its true I had only one stock in my etrade account after that.I was not worth 40 million as you stated after my last post that you replied to. I am still not following correct investment rules on this stock because I have still not sold a share. With this stock and the knowledge I have gain on this board and researching lead me to understand this was a blockbuster. I also started taking V 4 years ago and got my wife on it. Both were off label prescriptions. I knew I always have my equity in my business that has continue to grow. So I am sure that and my daily two hrs of research always helped me sleep good at night.This will be my only and last all in....
Plane
Well It is a good day in this household. Thanks for all the the great posts and research from the longs on this board. This is a morning I will never forget.
JL, My take on the study is you need to treat both the cause of the inflammation and inflammation itself. One is not great without the other. V does both. Just a laymen's perspective.
Speaking of PAD. I posted this back in Feb. I understand it is not enough events and very small group but it is still very interesting what the results of RI will be with it being a SE. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=138581068
Real Simple. The release states that they will discuss this and other data presented at the ESC. The other data is ASCEND trail. The results of the ASCEND will not be positive and they need to get out in front of it. I expect the stock to be down next week. They are just trying to minimize the damage. Now as Dude has stated if the results are somewhat positive then they also can jump on that.
PT
You are unbelievable. Just throwing crap out there. Have you ever done any research.https://fintel.io/soh/us/amrn/baker-bros-advisors-lp
OMG
We are maybe four weeks or closer to the read out. You have people like Pyr saying it's not going work. Then you have fish saying the sky is falling because of a leak. People are playing off fear. Know your investment. I have spend six years on this one. My wife and I have been on V for 4 years. I know people will say I am crazy because I am holding 394k shares at a $3 avg. Might be the same type of people that told me not to start a aviation company seventeen years ago now with 1000 employees in 20 states. I cant say that we will see the 53% that we saw in Jelis but we will see better than 15% and some of the SE could be off the charts. If you know your investment you will sleep fine at night and keep your fear level in check.
PT2
Just add this to the pile for the 30% reduction camp. https://www.lipidjournal.com/article/S1933-2874(18)30061-8/fulltext
Just saw the TV ad on NBC on the voice recap. Looks like its almost made prime time.