100%. At the very least he knows a rise in price is likely coming within the next couple months.

In late February, I provided some calculations here...just an FYI for those who want to do some math after today's news.

"Correct me if I'm wrong on some of these assumptions. I just went through the Q3 financials and MD&A. Looks like fully diluted share count including warrants, RSU, and options is about 66 million. There was also about $12 million CDN worth of convertible notes outstanding that at some point should convert to equity for about 13 million shares."

Has a third party said they’re buying LWLG’s polymer modulators?

No, not yet. But multiple Tier 1 companies are actively engaged and we’re told engineers from both sides are under agreement and actively working together.

Has damn near every single white paper/technical paper on optical modulators over the last decade mentioned polymer modulators as being an attractive option?

Yes.

Do polymer modulators today offer the best balance of size, efficiency, bandwidth, and scalability?

Yes.

Do many companies today mention polymer modulators as being an option for their modulator needs in the future?

Yes.

Google just did. Arista just did. List goes on.

Posters here are the most responsible for creating unrealistic expectations. Too many posters here rely on other posters for their due diligence.

Do your own due diligence. I have and it tells me this company and its technology are going to be a wild success.

And one thing to consider is that when you relisten to Lebby, he never said mass commercialization was to occur in 2021. He said around then they partnered with silicon foundries which ALLOW mass commercialization.

They did publicly tell investors that one of the uses for the new space is material production.

Speaking to management directly then revealed more intimate details. Nothing inappropriate or material was shared.

Proves the value of attending the shareholder meeting. Can’t wait to talk to Atikem because it seems he’s willing to get into more details on why/how things work.

It’s OK I’m a penny long with yuge gainz still.

Agreed.

Supposedly at OFC Mark was trying to ask a question to a panel, couldn’t get a coherent thought together, and Lebby interrupted him basically told him to get to the point. Probably embarrassing for Mark and might explain that post about Lebby. A personal vendetta. Granted Mark does have a point…time to unveil the curtain and not be so secretive.

Mark sent Ted his OFC slide deck. Don’t let Ted fool you.

I wonder if Mark knows Ted trolls here. Probably. Quite literally Mark is stabbing LWLG because Ted bothers Mark so much.

If anyone would like the slide deck, I can provide Ted’s email address. It’s the one he has 4,000+ unread messages. Dumdum didn’t create a burner to use with me LOL.

Either that or a queef.

Please try to be useful to the forum.

Andy B confirmed that TFLN and EO polymers are the only options for 400G per lane. Yes, not needed for a few years but that means in only a couple years they need to be available. In the meantime, it’s 200G per lane. Today for initial deployments, that is being served by InP modulators. EOP modulators are much smaller, much more efficient, simplify overall system design, and pose be to MUCH more scalable.

NLM said they’re aiming for 2026 for sampling with module makers and they only just started on fabrication development within the foundries.

I’m so glad they publicly said that. You know why? Because I’m an investor in NLM and now I can publicly compare their timelines to LWLG’s. I still need to be careful with what I say as to not violate my contracts with them.

LWLG is already sampling with Tier 1’s and has succeeded with foundry manufacturing of polymer modulators.

200G per lane polymer modulators mass produced at a foundry. LWLG has that in hand TODAY.

LWLG is years…that’s right I said years…ahead of NLM and owns all the IP anyway.

EOP modulators are happening. This is real. Tier 1 deals will most certainly be announced. And I can’t F’ing wait to watch it happen after witnessing the development over the last 15+ years.

NLM said 2026 for them to be sampling with module makers and they’re now just starting to work on wafer scale foundry manufacturing.

LWLG said they’re doing wafer scale poling INSIDE the foundry, thousands of devices at a time, and on commercial grade 200mm wafers and that they’re in some sort of talks with multiple Tier 1s.

You go ahead and tell people to sell now. You are the scam.

Precisely. The vast majority of the first deployments of 800G using 200G per lane will use InP based modulation because that technology is already available. The 8x100G will use SiPh.

The market for 800G over the next decade is absolutely enormous and many companies will most certainly use new technologies that offer better power consumption and performance…ie EOP.

He said he “thought it was the right thing to do”.

The only reason why they would never be accepted is if they fail their reliability testing. Data we’ve seen so far shows excellent reliability.

Compared to TFLN modulators, EOP is smaller and more efficient. They also have a higher bandwidth. EOP is silicon foundry compatible while TFLN is not.

Every single company in this industry has acknowledged the need (some say requirement) for better modulators. Many even reference EOP when talking about options…like that Google presentation at OFC.

The advantage that TFLN has right now is that it is widely available to researchers and organizations. It is not a proprietary material but people are patenting manufacturing/processing methods.

Interestingly right now there is one company in China that has a monopoly on supplying TFLN wafers. I have a contact who sells devices based on bulk LN and currently is working with TFLN. Because this one company has a monopoly, my contact is investigating starting a TFLN wafer foundry in the US.

TFLN isn’t going anywhere, but EOP is going to take some market share for modulator PICs for pluggable transceivers. And then other applications down the road…

Assuming LWLG gets their technology designed into at least one transceiver makers modules (that’s being worked on), there’s no reason why it wouldn’t flourish.

I’m sure there’s plenty of people in the industry who are thinking along the lines of Mark L. Over the last several years LWLG has brought so much of their development in house and not much of their progress is obvious unless you’re paying very close attention.

It’s time for Lebby to reveal their Tier 1 partner.

What’s your go-to nice scotch?

I hope you’re smart enough to understand that YouTube video saved the day here. Unless you’re an insider at the company, that came out of left field.

Again…I am happy this all happened. I’ll gladly wear that clown suit.

Cheers

Haha oh I’m so so sorry that I’m happy they avoided insolvency by a matter of weeks (two times in 6 months).

I stand by every single thing I’ve said about this company. Sure plenty of those statements came with negative connotations and yes many of them were fueled with emotions from losing a lot of money. But those statements came from valid observations of this company and industry.

Or maybe I’m just happy because I recouped nearly all my previous losses by trading this recently. And my previous average was around $4-5.

Anyway, POET finally did something right and now they will survive.

GFY. ;)

Excuse me what?

Cash on hand through the end of summer 2025 and another $60ish million available on its equity lines. The company is fully funded through 2027. By then, LWLG will easily be cash flow positive.

Sure that $60 million requires the dribble dilution. There’s also no warrant overhang here thankfully. That’s 15% dilution over 2-3 years at today’s market cap. That’s NOTHING!

The company is in a VERY good financial position.

Per Agora there was a filing today…no link yet…but said as of 4/26 they had $8 million USD in working capital. Without ATM usage I was estimating about $1 million in working capital right about now. So it looks like they did indeed take advantage of the ATM the last 10 days or so and raised ~$7 million.

Add this weeks private placement of about $7.2 million USD and they estimate $15.24 million on hand.

Burn rate hovers between $1-1.4 million per month so there’s a year of cash on hand now.

Well done, POET. Phew.

Best $100,000 spent on marketing if that new company is who put together the YouTuber video. Wow what a Hail Mary.

It would be a major relief if they raise this whole PP AND several million via the ATM.

If they get $15 million USD in their pockets…no need to think/worry about money until the end of the year. And hopefully by then the commercialization path has become even more clear and some positive surprises in between.

Private placement announced. $10 million CDN or about $7.2 million USD.

Now I’m really wondering if they used the ATM last week. I think shares outstanding number gets updated somewhat frequently so we’ll know soon.

Yes that is correct.

The leading edge to my knowledge is Huawei bonding 6 inch TFLN wafers to 8 inch silicon wafers and they believe the same process can be applied to future 8 inch TFLN wafers.

Lightium claims to be using 200mm but they’re a brand new company with only a few people so who knows what is actually going on.

For some reason Huawei’s upcoming paper on the topic at CLEO has been withdrawn. So I wonder if it didn’t make it through the peer review process.

You do realize that situation changes as soon as LWLG announces their Tier 1 partner? It’s likely LWLG’s foundry partner is either Tower Semi or SkyWater. I’d bet money at this point that the name of the foundry is going to remain secret for some time.

Interestingly enough in the last 24 hours since my last comment on this, I found the Ciena information. OFC 2023 there was an article that came out that mentioned Cienas’s WaveLogic6 was going to use either InP or TFLN. More recent spec sheets from Ciena indicate that they went with InP for their initial roll out of WL6.

TFLN isn’t ready. Unless HyperLight drastically expanded their production line and figured out their stability issues, they aren’t able to supply the market.

Liobate. No. Luxtelligence and it’s customers. No. Lightium is the new guy. No, years away. Rapid Photonics. Who? Ori-Chip. Maybe if anyone. NanoLN…monopoly on TFLN wafers hence why Luxtelligence and Lightium exist. Eoptolink uses HyperLight’s PICs because their own Chinese suppliers can’t supply…and Eopolink isn’t selling. And why is that…go to the paragraph above.

“The volume will act as a barrier.” LOL for TFLN you mean Markie?

For the modulator PIC for pluggable transceiver market…the minute EOP becomes available, every single TFLN business loses value. Plenty of other applications where TFLN has a place, though.

I’d bet you $100 Andy B. is an investor in HyperLight.

From the angle of what I see…

You made millions in profit here, moved investment dollars into another company, lost millions there, and now you said you’re looking to buy back here. Your jabs are obvious.

I respect that a 90+ year old is actively investing and hanging out on forums…but come on.

You also don’t seem to realize that the more data that is created and processed via AI growth and what you mentioned…there needs to be better technology to transmit that data across servers in/around/about data centers. It’s actually a good thing for companies like LWLG because it puts pressure on the end users to commercialize new technology.

But yes, sure, LWLG needs to wrap up some deals.

Again…you have no clue what you’re talking about and not once have you ever said anything that indicates you have a clue.

Mark is a black sheep in the industry who is tolerated because he has a platform. Supposedly his behavior at the OFC executive forum was odd and it’s likely he has some form of autism.

He’s taken a keen interest in TFLN and has said he’ll shout from the rooftops about EOP once he sees that third party validation we all want to see.

My guess as to why he made this post today is it’s a lead-up to Tuesday’s Optica event. When that event was first published, the only speakers were Andy B, Mark L, another guy, and Lewis J from NLM Photonics. Unfortunately the panel list has doubled, but still will be worthwhile to listen to.

If it was years ago that would make sense because EOP wasn’t ready then. TFLN wasn’t either though but it’s much more accessible.

I still haven’t seen evidence that Ciena is using TFLN and it doesn’t sound like Mark has seen it first hand either.

I know their latest offering uses InP EAM.

Copying my response from Reddit…

Now that’s interesting.

I saw him make very similar comments in a private exchange with a shareholder a couple weeks ago. He basically said that he’ll shout from the rooftops the day he hears a top engineer from a Tier 1 validate LWLG’s technology.

That day is coming and I look forward to hearing Mark’s opinion. Even though he’s generally known as a contrarian journalist. He’s been a vocal opponent of LPO and yet the industry continues to move on in that direction.

At least Mark acknowledges the need for better modulators ie TFLN in his case.

Jimmy’s comment on that LinkedIn post is spot on. Why TFLN when EOP can (and is now confirmed to be) be applied inside a CMOS foundry. That is true scale. LWLG’s modulators are smaller and have lower drive voltage. TFLN either requires a dedicated foundry or complicated etching/bonding/growth processes.

I’ve seen Mark’s comment about Ciena using TFLN before and I’m not sure he’s correct. While I’m not 100% sure which product he’s referring to from Ciena, their latest WaveLogic 6 uses InP EAM as the modulator.

In any case, the market is big enough for all technologies to exist. It’ll take years to see who gobbles the largest market share.

LWLG cannot announce their Tier 1 deal soon enough. We know it’s coming. Just don’t know when.

Enjoy Mack!

You are drastically underestimating the power that traders can have. This wasn’t just a blog. That YouTube channel has ~350,000 followers. If 1,000 of them have $10,000 to trade with that’s $10 million of fresh money smacking around a stock that was unnoticed with tiny volume just a week ago. Understand these types will go in and out multiple times per day. And some of these traders are clearly playing with bigger money than $10k. Hell, I’m not a trader but I got my toes wet this week and recouped a nice chunk of my previous losses. Overall…still in the red just a bit. Easy, easy money made this week and I’m a dummy.

We’re not seeing huge dark pool trades recorded so this isn’t institutional accumulation.

This isn’t industry/partner accumulation because nothing has really changed in the last couple months and a potential industry investor has already had opportunity to participate in financings if they wanted to.

IMO this is pure retail trading.

And that is OK as long as the company is raising ~$10 million via the ATM throughout all this.

Whoever orchestrated this whole thing deserves some recognition. Proves to me that in desperate times, someone at POET is willing to get into the mud and get nasty. I like that.

Now…I hope the momentum continues. Best case scenario is the traders bring this to $7-9ish per share. Hover around there for a few weeks and you’ll start to get forced buying by the indexes. THEN things can get weird as you saw with LWLG during 2021/2022.

My comfort level here will be greatly increased if it turns out they sold a few million+ shares this week via the ATM. To me this whole thing seems coordinated, and seeing upwards of $10 million raised would confirm that. If the ATM was not used significantly, then wow, what a wasted opportunity.

This won’t get them enough cash for mass production, but it’ll get them through 6 months comfortably without having to prematurely sell a portion of SPX or do another dilutive (warrants) private placement.

POET branded module sales slated for second half of 2025 and I don’t doubt they’ll find buyers. The optical engine sales don’t mean much other than validation the technology works. Those sales don’t benefit POET with revenue.

Management has no room for any errors at this point if they want to ensure that their shareholders see a meaningful return on their investment.

Can we replace Ted's sticky with this? Much more concise lol.

I never said that.

I think the best news we can get next week is that the company raised $5+ million this week with all this volume.

Haha hey venting is OK in my book. It's healthy and sometimes can create productive conversations. I still don't completely understand those December statements.

Regarding a Tier 1 contract...I'd assume this year still. LWLG and its primary transceiver-related partner have been working together since 2022. 2023 was about getting packaged (and optimized) devices through reliability testing with the new ALD encapsulation technology/process. Now, it sounds like the customer wants even more data and my theory is that they want to see reliability on devices that come from different foundry runs. This is to test the consistency in manufacturing. I'm going to ask if this theory is correct in a few weeks at the shareholder meeting.

When is enough, enough? And what is the trigger event where the relationship can be formally announced? I don't have those answers.

Besides a foundry tech transfer please let me know what goal you think was missed.

Because the last time goals were set…December 2022…they all were marked as complete. The reliability data from packaged devices using the new ALD. Lifetime results, red flag, etc.

And let’s not forget the focus of 2023 per the December 2022 letter would be BEOL engineering and high volume poling. Which was a success considering polymer deposition and poling is now being done at wafer-scale inside the foundry.

Thank you for sharing that paper. I'll read it with my second cup of coffee this morning lol.

I quickly dug through my stash and found some others on the topic.

https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9717/10/11/2342 - Design, Manufacture and Assembly of 3D Integrated Optical Transceiver Module Based on an Active Photonic Interposer

https://opg.optica.org/oe/fulltext.cfm?uri=oe-32-1-40&id=544663 - Low-loss and broadband wafer-scale optical interposers for large-scale heterogeneous integration

https://opg.optica.org/jlt/abstract.cfm?uri=jlt-41-4-1152&origin=search - Beyond CPO: A Motivation and Approach for Bringing Optics Onto the Silicon Interposer

https://opg.optica.org/abstract.cfm?uri=cleo_si-2023-SM1H.3&origin=search - Integrating Nearly-Indistinguishable Quantum Emitters onto a Photonic Interposer

Some are more relevant than others, but you get the point.

ASTAR/AMF had a really interesting paper with their electronic-optics integration method. FOWLP. They built an 8x200 1.6T engine on their manufacturing line and claim it is cheap and ready for high volume. I'll post a link to that paper when it becomes available. Usually within a couple months after OFC.

Now...what do the foundries like Tower, GFS, etc. have on this subject? I think the big boys won here. Even Broadcom has monolithically integrated MUX/DEMUX...something POET had touted that they're the only ones to do.

Slightly off topic but I'd really like to know SPX's plans for a permanent manufacturing facility. Right now it is 5,000 square feet of temporary space and that certainly won't cut it for the long-term.

Small Potato do you post here as Lab Man or is that Dave with the red airplane?

Anyway…saw your comment about Arista’s slide mentioning silicon interposers.

Not to burst your bubble, but that’s not a reference to POET.

Silicon interposers are already everywhere in foundries and are basically free. IMO that is essentially why POET pivoted to be a module maker because their interposer itself was an expensive alternative to what is already offered. I also believe that same reasoning is what caused Mark Lutkowitz and Dylan Patel to call POET’s technology “expensive”.

Technically POET’s is silicon oxynitride anyway ;)

No clue! Haha

When these new traders get bored and move on. The volume will dry up and when that tide turns is probably a good time to find the exit.

End of May when lock-ups expire is likely to create selling pressure unless the company puts out some banger PRs.

Also, 10 consecutive days over $1.80ish triggers an acceleration of warrants for 30 days which will create some selling. If the volume is gone by then, the stock will get hammered.

Most long time shareholders are still at 50% losses.

That YouTuber sure has some big boy trader followers.

Two-bit trader.

April 9 you said ‘I see green flags which is why I’m heavily invested’

LOL

Yup just did. I don’t check PMs too often there.