85Ghz and PAM6 will not win the 400G per lane market. It'll likely be first to market, like today's 200G per lane announcements largely using InP EML. I bet a module using those lasers/modulators is pushing 40-50 Watts. That's insane. We'll see data in 2026 it sounds like. EOP (and TFLN, too) will be drastically more energy efficient than InP for 400G/lane. EOP certainly lower cost/simpler designs as well.

Cool news for POET though. They need to tell the market who has rights to the revenue for their 800G+ optical engines. So far, their Chinese JV has rights to nearly all the revenue from their previously announced collaborations. Not many people understand that or are willing to acknowledge it. Those sales never show up as revenue for POET and that cash stays in China with the JV.

I wonder what other 1.6T+ announcements we'll see next week with ECOC. It's already starting to brew with many announcements this week from others. Again...mostly InP based and a couple SiPh based.

LWLG should be winning a post-deadline award I'm thinking. I saw a couple technical papers that could include LWLG, too.

Time for LWLG to put out some news that actually has meaning. We shall see.

I had a delicious Auntie Anne’s pretzel at the train station.

Yes I know for a fact these statements were made because of the ongoing collaboration with Intel back then. Long story short, Intel kept moving goalposts for LWLG to meet and whenever targets were met (and LWLG assumed the deal would be consummated)...Intel created new targets. This was a major part of the motivation to bring all development activities in-house.

Might be worthwhile to mention that Lebby confirmed to you that this datasheet represents LWLG's "worst" performing device. Not every customer's application requires the super high bandwidth and low voltage he essentially said.

I was told in May that the fiber-to-fiber losses for the 200G/1v modulator are 4-5db.

Really happy to see the website updated. I hated how outdated the old one was.

Yes I believe the front page video is LWLG's lab.

I was a bit facetious with that comment. I also never sell ALL shares when I exit an investment. I keep 1 to hang onto as a memento lol

We'll see what the next couple months brings us. I'm hopeful and confident I'll be pleased with further developments.

I didn't get a sense either way, unfortunately. They're undoubtedly working towards that though.

I brought up that quote and conversation to Lebby and told him who said it and he laughed. For what it's worth...

Between the 'reaffirmation' press release and the conversation between the 'executive' and a shareholder....they better have a meaningful deal to announce this year. I told Lebby what will happen if they do not and then that's when he opened up a bit on a personal level.

He knows what shareholders want and he knows he needs to deliver. He knows what happens if he doesn't.

Don't take my advice, but personally I am comfortable taking this risk. I am not underwater on my investment though.

Everything is shaping up really well. LWLG's development, basically the entire industry now publicly noting the significance EO polymers can play, the addressable market growing faster and larger than previously anticipated.

I bet if the stock did a slow and steady march from $1 to $8 per share over the last few years...every single person would be happy. The violent explosion to $20 and the roller coaster ride after that has F'ed with some people's heads.

I agree.

I think next summer 1 million of his options expire. Perhaps a move is made before that.

It's $1.8 million per month plus or minus.

It's not that the incumbent technology is adapting better than expected, it's that LWLG's development is moving slower than (we) expected. Probably slower than LWLG expected, too. It's hard to predict how long the last few % will take to finish.

Marcelli should be removed and a proper CFO should replace him. That's the first major move to make in 2025 and especially if the stock continues to be in bad shape. The company would need to find a different type of financing that Marcelli is unqualified to obtain.

Thanks, Jorge.

I should have clarified that statement. I definitely didn’t mean PR communication. I more so meant his willingness to engage his shareholders who reach out to him. Meeting me, going to Europe once or twice a year to meet those investors, constantly answering emails and texts…

He spent 30 minutes on the phone with a disgruntled shareholder last week and just let the person vent it sounds like.

I asked him if he feels like quitting yet because we all bother him so much. He said he’s fine lol.

Imec/Nokia had a technical paper last month, "Proposal for a 500GHz Silicon Photonic Modulator" that uses EO polymer.

Concluding sentence - "We found that achieving modulator bandwidths of hundreds of GHz doesn't require plasmonic waveguide design or CMOS-incompatible Pockels materials (TFLN and BTO)."

Edit - my summary will also have a part that mentions 400G per lane with and without plasmonics.

Wtf are you doing awake? Go back to bed.

I spent about 1.5 hours today sitting down with Lebby in NYC. Had a really wonderful time. Might drop a summary ;)

You couldn't be more wrong.

Post # 200,000. Crazy

OT: I had a chicken salad sandwich for lunch. It was decent. The tomato was perfect. Beautifully red, thicc, and juicy.

No one cares.

LWLG still more valuable and didn't sell its soul (and legal rights to the vast majority of its revenue over the next few years) to the Chinese. They're getting set up for an early buyout (absorption probably a better word), too. Mark my words. If within the next 12-18 months, easily less than $500 million and that's about $5 per share.

Because you clearly forgot about the context of that 'statement', here it is:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174725622

lol

I'm fairly certain Lebby has acknowledged competition, so you're wrong there.

Silorix is not using LWLG's material or NLM's material.

You have no clue whether it is as good or better than LWLG's.

Lebby is acutely aware of what is happening at Silorix.

WRONG.

Minor correction...EOP is starting to be acknowledged as a possible required technology for the future. High bandwidth and low power modulators are undoubtedly required for the future and EOP is one of just a few technology categories that can meet the demands. GFS, Google, Arista, Coherent, etc. all have it on their list of technologies. It has been researched and explored for decades.

Regarding adoption...it should go like this:

Modulator PIC completion --> Optical Engine (with laser and other components) completion --> Transceiver completion --> Initial Sampling --> Volume Production

While we don't know the precise status of the modulator PIC, we've been told for nearly 2 years that it is "in progress" and in May a lab engineer said they are "shipping arrayed modulators to customers". Whatever that means.

The recent May presentation showed "transceiver outsourcing" as 2024 and 2025 activities. While LWLG may still be optimizing a modulator PIC, we should reasonably expect LWLG to already be in Phase 2 above - working with other companies that take the modulator PIC and integrate it with other components to create an optical engine. Some companies solely make optical engines and then sell them to transceiver companies. Some transceiver companies also make their own optical engines. I am guessing that the "Tier 1" is the latter type. I am still expecting that collaboration to be revealed this year. It's a logical next step after knowing the modulator performance is where it needs to be and there is a foundry that is capable of producing these devices entirely at the foundry.

Do I think we'll see an EOP based transceiver this year? No, probably not. And no, Ted, I'm not worried. All I want at this point is that named T1 partner because then I can relax knowing I'm not crazy wasting time and money here. I've remained invested here because I know if they succeed in doing all this, this company has a very high likelihood of being a very profitable business that will be around for a long time.

PS - When I say 'optimizing a modulator PIC' above, I mostly mean optimizing manufacturing processes. Just FYI. I think a great deal of work over the last 12-18 months has revolved around the encapsulation process with ALD.

Yes this is the long term plan I see unfolding. Silicon modulators are ubiquitous today. No denying that. EO polymer + silicon modulators are the goal to make ubiquitous in the future. I don't know when, but there will be a day when the numerous SiPh foundries across the globe will be offering this technology to its customers.

The same energy savings calculations could be applied to any of the new modulator technologies being discussed - EOP, TFLN, BTO. So far, EOP is the only one that offers a proven platform for the necessary device characteristics that allow these energy savings. Even the best-of-class TFLN doesn't get there.

Why no deals yet? A multi-channel PIC needs to be complete and ready IMO.

Could LWLG supply 4 individual 200G modulators to be put inside an 800G module? Sure. But IMO that wouldn't be scalable because it requires too many steps to package and also 4 individual lasers. Ideally...one 4 channel PIC is powered by one laser that is split into 4 waveguides. Maybe there's something I am not seeing and there's a way to package 4 of the 200G modulators into a module with one laser. I dunno.

Are there still issues with the tech? No, fundamentally I don't think so. LWLG is putting the tech through its paces and through many foundry runs to convince its partners that they can ultimately provide millions of these devices reliably. That's the ticket.

The other EOP players are limited by tiny budgets and minimal IP/experience. LWLG owns the IP in this space and has a huge budget comparatively. LWLG will win the EOP battle no matter what the others claim.

I very rarely comment on the stock price. I don't agree with the current valuation, but I completely understand it. It is the company's fault. I think once a legit partner signs up with the technology then we could get proper analyst attention. LWLG has cornered the market for a category of technology that is required for the future according the many major industry players. When this translates into stock appreciation? No clue.

Relevant...a copy of a recent Reddit comment of mine:

Great question. I’ve done a little bit of research on this the last few months.

Per Ashkan Seyedi at NVIDIA recently, today’s 800G transceivers consume 15-20 Watts of power. The industry is doing everything they can do to get that power consumption down. For 1.6T, the wattage increases further, and I believe I saw up to 50 Watts estimated for future 3.2T pluggable transceivers using today’s technology.

A lot of the focus today is on design changes, mostly LPO, which removes the DSP from the transceiver. This year it became a bit clearer that the industry appears to be hesitant to go the LPO route and now are talking about LRO – linear receive optics. Below is a quick Google link on the LPO vs LRO topic:

https://fast-photonics.com/linear-pluggable-optics-and-linear-receive-optics/

Andy Bechtolsheim from Arista has mentioned many times over the last 2 years that the other ways to reduce power consumption are to switch to better modulator technology and use lower power lasers. He has mentioned that better modulators can offer 20% or more in power savings versus LPO.

With that said and moving along…I am hoping/estimating we’ll see an EOP modulator based 800G transceiver operate under 10 Watts. I’d love to see 7-8 Watts.

Modulators themselves don’t consume a significant amount of the transceiver’s power. But these highly efficient modulators enable lower power lasers to be used and enable lower power DSPs and/or eliminate modulator driver chips altogether in the design.

Overall, it is strictly the use of these better modulators that offers drastic power savings because of the ancillary effects they have. They are going to enable LPO levels of power efficiency without having to go the LPO route.

Now to quantify this let’s look at the typical energy usage of a hyperscale datacenter. I used ChatGPT in some of my fact-finding FYI.

A typical hyperscale data center uses up to 50% of its total power for data processing and transmitting infrastructure.

Optical transceivers are a small portion of that and consume up to 5% of the total datacenter energy.

There are several categories of optical transceivers depending on distance needed. Initially and of course, not all optical transceivers inside a datacenter would use LWLG’s modulators. But it won’t be too long before much of the market is dominated by 800G+ transceivers in all categories which potentially can be served by LWLG’s EOP modulators. IMO…the sweet spot for LWLG is the 2k+ distance. But anything over 500m is likely the start of where LWLG could operate. Beyond 10k and up to 80k…the modulation is coherent and today is wildly power hungry and expensive. Tons of value to be unlocked there and EOP is already proven in that wavelength and modulation format.

Let’s say EOP based transceivers shave 2% off the total datacenter power consumption from optical transceivers. Gives us some wiggle room and assumes some types of transceivers will not use the ‘latest and greatest’ modulator technology.

The average hyperscale data center (50MW) has an average power bill of $72 million per year. ChatGPT says ‘it depends’ but an average of $6 million per month.

2% of that total is $1,440,000. Google operates 39 data centers and Amazon has 125 according to a quick search. At the end of 2023, there were almost 1,000 hyperscale datacenters worldwide with half of them in the USA. The number won't stop growing.

EOP modulators appear to have potential to save Google and Amazon a collective $236 million per year in energy costs. The future projections in a world of 1.6T/3.2T modules are significantly more.

Anyway…these datacenter upgrades to 800G and beyond are happening no matter what. LWLG has a very solid case to be enabling the most efficient and scalable modulator platform to power the future pluggable optics. EOP is far more power efficient than SiPh and certainly InP. It is also more efficient than TFLN. It is customizable for continued improvement. Above everything…it is the only emerging material platform that is totally compatible with silicon foundries.

It doesn’t stop at pluggables either. EOP will make its way into co-packaged optics and the power savings are amplified even further there. Lower power SerDes, cooler operation/less cooling requirements, etc. So it’ll chop off more of that 5% segment mentioned above plus into other sections of networking infrastructure.

Please anyone try to find some holes in my analysis here.

"We thank colleagues at Ayar Labs, Inc. and GlobalFoundries for support relating to the 45CLO platform."

Right from the paper.

I spoke to an Ayar engineer in person and we discussed the fact that EOP enhances MRR's in several ways. However, right now the 'standard' silicon MRR's are good enough for their current offerings.

Want comprehensive? Go to the Mega DD thread on Reddit. It's my depository of all things LWLG. I have several dozen other technical papers on EOP that are not included in the Mega DD thread. I tried to keep it focused on LWLG, but the bottom section has a really good collection of general photonics resources and then a couple of the other EOP-related papers.

Here is the paper I was looking for on EOP and MRR's.

https://opg.optica.org/col/abstract.cfm?uri=col-19-4-041301

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10258984

The polymer used is not mentioned, but two scientists affiliated with KIT and SilOriX are on the paper.

Here is a paper that uses Perkinamine with Polariton in a plasmonic racetrack modulator. There is a section about the reduced temperature sensitivity caused by the EOP.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41566-023-01161-9

I'm trying to dig in my stash and find another paper with EOP and MRR that highlighted the improved temperature stability by adding EOP. It know I have it somewhere because I discussed it with an Ayar Labs engineer at OFC last year.

Besides this, there's a handful of other papers from groups investigating EOP in ring modulators. It's most likely a configuration to be used down the road once CPO takes off.

I'm a man of my word. I'll drop a copy of the trade confirmation in your mailbox lol.

Jesus I hope you're not serious.

1.6T can be done with 100G lanes using basic SiPh. Initial 200G lane deployments are InP based for the most part.

Imec is likely bonding InP EMLs to their wafers. Maybe even talking about TFLN. Maybe EOP now that we know Imec has used Perkinamine in some research recently.

No surprises.

EOP > TFLN > InP.

Undeniable and I can't wait for that deal PR to shut so many of you up. Then again most here have nothing else to do but complain so there's always going to be something I'm sure.

Ted,

I feel the need to chime in. First, I'd like to address your post yesterday that contained some information that needs clarified. I know you read my posts on Reddit. Over the last few weeks I've seen you reference directly/indirectly several of my comments. With that said, you continue to spew the 'we have to wait 6-9 months for another round of wafers' or 'we have to wait till Q1 2025 for more AMF results'.

Absolute garbage and your continued use of this reinforces my belief that you are not here to be 100% honest. Hell, at least say 3-6 months and not 6-9 months for 3 months in a row.

At the shareholder meeting, Lebby had a comment where he mentioned that on average it takes 6 months to receive wafers back. You are also able to pay more to jump ahead in line.

Let's consider a few things now...

OFC in March had the 200G modulators that were produced at AMF. That means LWLG very likely received those wafers/modulators (not sure who did the dicing) in February and probably at the latest. Because before OFC, those modulators went to PHIX to be packaged, and then back to LWLG. I'll give you a nugget from the ALD presentation. Recall the PHIX LinkedIn post that got everyone excited a couple months ago because it looked like and sounded like LWLG modulators? Well...the ALD presentation had a close up picture of the packaged modulators and it was 100% identical to the PHIX LinkedIn picture.

In May, shareholders also saw multiple other uncut 200mm wafers. There is no way LWLG just let wafers sit around uncut from February to May...so it appears very likely that LWLG received another batch of wafers without 'having to wait 6-9 months'.

This is because LWLG is continually receiving wafers from MULTIPLE foundries. I would guess on average they receive 2 wafers per month. I asked Lebby if they receive 5 or 50 per year. He said something along the lines of 'probably somewhere in the middle'.

Now...we know LWLG is working with AMF. It is also likely that LWLG is working with GFS after recent comments. It is also likely that LWLG is working with Tower Semi in some capacity. My support for this is that last fall at Optica PECC, Adam Carter from OpenLight said he's had "many discussions" about adding EOP to their InP platform at Tower Semi. Now, EOP/InP combined is possible as evidenced by the Imec InP/EOP device using Perkinamine earlier this year...but it is more likely that LWLG would be using TowerSemi's standard silicon photonics foundry in California (much like AMF's actually) prior to moving beyond that to the InP platform with OpenLight.

I think it is also more than likely that LWLG is working with SkyWater. Their photonics foundry is in Florida. SkyWater is one of the US governments most trusted foundries. During 2023, LWLG added "defense entities" as possible customers in the SEC filings. Now, I've said those filings need a major overhaul...but it was a very interesting addition. It became even more interesting when I learned that there is an undisclosed employee at LWLG for the last 18 months or so who happens to have affiliations to DARPA. I'm the only one who has found those connections and obviously that is NOT something I am going to share publicly until this person's role is made public.

TSMC is also now in the silicon photonics business. There's a picture of an organic modulator as "under development" on the website of a foundry that is affiliated with TSMC.

With all that said...to supply a couple million PICs for the pluggable transceivers, LWLG doesn't NEED all of these foundries to produce those volumes. However, if Lebby truly wants to make this technology ubiquitous, it SHOULD be offered by as many foundries as possible.

Summer is almost over and there's several conferences coming up in September and October that LWLG is participating in.

I think it's going to be a very exciting fall.

Dang that's weird.

LWLG's Tg is more than satisfactory at this point. Published research shows over 175 degrees and the shareholder meeting presentation shows almost 187 degrees. You might be thinking of Td (decomposition temperature). Which for LWLG appears to be a very tight and consistent 260 degrees which is more than enough for processing/reflow for subassembly manufacturing.

NLM's HLD Tg is 80-100 degrees without crosslinking. With crosslinking, it is higher. I don't have that figure off the top of my head. Definitely not 185 though. I think 140ish, but I'll check. I do know that recent publications from KIT/Silorix mention that they were not able to replicate material performance in-device and that crosslinking methods are still producing inconsistent results. Even still, I'm likely going to see a ~4-5x on my money when NLM completes their Series A. LOLLLL

SiN and carbon nanotubes are not materials for modulation YOU VERY IGNORANT NEWB.

Optical losses for EOP are far lower than TFLN and that is documented.

GFS will work on anything that people pay them to. Simple as that.

The best material will prove itself via commercialization and all signs (except the opinion of your pal Mark Lutkowitz) point to EOP being the winner.

Look at the spider charts again you regard. BTO and TFLN are there.

Physics wins and mother nature is on LWLG's side.

We got news today so technically I'm allowed back per my own rules lol...

For real newbies, the shareholders at the lab tour just 2.5 months ago received confirmation from LWLG management and engineers that they are in fact working with and receiving wafers from multiple foundries across the world. Woo!

It is astounding that after all this time and effort you have put in here, you still just don’t have enough knowledge of the technology and general development process to actually be able to piece this all together. I think you have the capability to learn enough to do a better job, but you haven’t done it.

Good bye again. This forum is absolutely worthless now.

That's not having it both ways.

Too many here just don't take the time to understand the context of statements made.

I'm wasting my fucking time here.

I'm out. I'll be back if there's news or I need to drag my balls on GP's face.

Below is the context of his comment. Lebby is not the type of person to look at the stock price every hour like most of us here. THAT is the point of his comment.

Regarding T1's knocking on the door. Considering the number of engineering teams that have visited the company AFTER the Ghent presentation where he told shareholders that process has already started...that is NOT a lie.

Quotes below. I took out some "ums" and cleaned some double words.

Attendee: "What can be done to get price up if you can’t tell anything what you’re doing? What can be done to improve communication?

Lebby: What's share price again…can you explain it to me? (clearly said this in a joking matter)

Attendee: The share price…(the room and Lebby laughs right here)

Lebby: I don't look at the share price. I mean I run the company.

Attendee: We do…(this was said in between Lebby’s two sentences above).

Lebby: …I know YOU do…everybody here looks the share price except me. I'm focusing on commercialization and the only way I think about this is is the more we move towards commercialization, the better it's going to be for everybody. So I have to focus on getting more commercial deals…more commercial traction. I can't predict the share price like anybody else. I certainly understand the sentiment of a lot of retail investors and investment banks. My job is to get more commercial traction then I think it will sort itself out. But that’s my focus."

It’s a shame I called you out on accusing the company of “outright lies” within the editing window because you drastically softened your tone with your edit and back tracked. Just caught that now unfortunately…

Yup. Very easy to find the necessary information so this poster is deliberately spewing nonsense.

Haha split that convo into a couple different phone calls and maybe that’s all it was.

It is true.

It was me, RichardL, Marcelli, and Lebby standing in a circle when it was discussed.

I don’t care what your contact said because what was said to me and Richard was too specific to be made up. Perhaps they were talking about Vanguard making that board suggestion and not BR. Either way…doesn’t matter. We all know it’s not an active investment. And this isn’t a lie.

I know him personally. Perhaps I’ll shoot him an email. Haven’t talked with him in a few years.