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That same building is shown on the HB movie starting at 1:25 and going for about 15 seconds. It is at the extreme north end of the project and should be seen on the Google earth photo.
Total rainfall is less of a problem if it doesn't all come at the same time. Spaced out at two storms a week would be perfect. You just don't want to see runoff causing erosion. What concerns me more is the air pollution in China.
Some observations about the MF and HB's video.
1. Chinese farming techniques are very labor intensive compared to modern US farming. I would think that it would take about one worker for every two of those subsections defined by the canals.
2. Irrigation shouldn't be a problem if that is fresh, clean water.
3. It looks like the climate there is similar to the US South (GA, AL, MS, LO). If so, the growing season could enable two crops of some vegetables per year and a wide variety of fruits and vegetables.
4. I would estimate that the heavy spring planting would start this month and continue for a few months of successive plantings. That would give a main harvest season starting in May and lasting through the summer into October. Therefore, the greenhouse use would be essential to provide a year-round harvest.
5. Since they have already started some planting, there should be a small revenue stream starting in Q2.
6. The Chinese appear to value landscaping and fences.
Monday should see a small positive reaction but a larger reaction would come from a PR about the final tranche and nomination of a new BOD member.
I would rather see a monthly video of the MF project than have a verbal update. Seeing is believing. Next HB should bring a drone for a quick flyover. haha.
FT
This is possibly what the Blue Horseshoe referenced.
http://bluehorseshoestocks.com/
Great video, thanks. I noticed that workers were out in the fields of what looked like vegetables. Are these for worker food or is this the start of the cropland to be developed? The scale of this project is very impressive. The PR dept should make a deal with one of those Discovery Channel producers to document the construction.
I agree with WW. Many times I have got an order filled at a lower price than what I set as a limit. For example: Limit set at $8,33 and filled at $8.3199.
Your broker may require you use a limit order when buying OTC BB stocks. If so, set the limit a few cents above the current ask price. Be careful if you select the All or None option, because this will not fill if shares are not immediately available. Also, you could consider using the option of letting your offer ride Until Cancelled. That way you could get partial fills for several days from the same order.
The building might be the three water holding tanks for fresh water, salt water and waste water that are housed under a 10.000 sq meter building (described at the 6:05 mark in the video on facebook).
The PE 50 or more ratio will come when the institutions are allowed to buy (after upgrade). Usually, insti's get their million share allocations during the IPO process and at bargain prices. If they want any of SIAF, they will have to pay retail. The way I see things developing, the common shareholder of today (us) won't even have time to decide to sell before we reach PE 50. In other words, a big fast spike.
There is a great incentive for the company to meet or exceed the construction schedule. If they meet the phase 1 schedule, the Zhongshan govt has committed to granting the company additional industrial land for a larger project.
Any announcement about a new venture outside of China would probably be an import/export facility in Sweden to take advantage of the company already existing but having no real function.
I think we have probably already seen the news for this quarter. The update on construction of the mega farm and the opening of the Shanghai distribution center qualify as news.
I saw a farm raised sturgeon crop on the food channel. It works. These were only three or four feet long. Different variety from the Russian sturgeon I guess.
Having a variety of species makes short term pricing problems less troublesome. If prices for smaller shrimp are low, then keep them in stock and get the price for larger shrimp in a few months.
IMO, the long term outlook for shrimp and prawns is bullish because of disease problems in countries like Vietnam and India. Short term pricing erosion should self correct.
Or they could stock a few tanks with sturgeon and enter the caviar business.
Tony, too many variables to answer that question, imo.
What are they growing?
Stocking density?
Market price currently?
The real answer is to grow a variety of species and let the averages control what you get in the market. That way, the price of one species may be down, but another is higher so it averages to your goal.
Eight is the luckiest, but really anything but four, five or six is fine.
Chinese are very superstitious about lucky numbers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numbers_in_Chinese_culture
AliBaba is now delivering tea to customers by quadcopter, maybe they could do it.
It would be cheaper to hire a detective agent (maybe from Hong Kong) company with a pilot's license for a once a month flyover and photo shoot. You could even get one of HB's American Airlines friends to do a flyover.
The Shanghai distribution center business is just still in the startup phase and will have an impact on earnings later this year. The Tesco concession is still new and the other main sales target is the hotels and restaurants in the area. Those will both grow over time.
The strategy we are seeing with morning sell-offs followed by afternoon buying is called "shaking the tree" by the MM's. Someone is trying to entice some panic selling to acquire additional shares on the cheap. In other words, it is signal to either hold or add on the dips in price.
"Tree Shakes – if you hold shares in a company and the price starts to drift downwards, you need to check two things. Firstly check the date and make sure it is not ex-dividend day – your share price will drop by the same amount as the dividend, and this is fine.
Secondly, scour the news for reasons why the sp might be dropping. If you can’t find any good reason, then the chances are that you are witnessing a “tree shake”. When a market maker is trying to fill a large institutional buy order, sometimes they may not have enough shares. They start to gradually drop the share price in order to “scare” people into thinking the company has a problem.
Weak holders will sell up, and the market maker continues to drop the price until enough weak holders have relinquished their shares. The market maker then fulfils its large order and returns the share price to where it started. Be eagle-eyed for all news relating to companies you hold shares in, and you’ll be better able to spot tree shakes and not get caught out."
What was said in the CC was that they were converting the herd to a Waygu breed but that it would take some time for the whole process to work through. My guess is that they will still buy regular cattle from the local growers buy their own herd will be premium.
RD will have to fire up his calculator after the cattle farms are converted to producing Waygu beef. A sample of the prices can be found on this page from Amazon.
http://www.amazon.com/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=wagyu+steak&tag=googhydr-20&index=grocery&hvadid=55307885556&hvpos=1s1&hvexid=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=6904877246562859765&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_1slf6eaxa1_b
I think the RD post underestimates the potential. SIAF has shown via past actions that they will switch out of lower value products to more profitable (for example adding eels). It also doesn't consider emarketing, online shopping and other methods of sales directly to the consumer. I haven't even considered anything like a Whole Foods deal.
10-K
According to the calendar posted at the SIAF investor page we can expect the 10-K to be filed on Mar 31. But they also posted the extended deadline date of Apr 15
http://sinoagrofood.investorroom.com/events?date=1427864400
Noble investment conference presentation on Jan 21.
http://noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/705c1202d0664af1a460e6a9e03d3cae1d
Highly recommended you listen to this.
There is a misconception that MM's have to actually own stock to buy or sell. They are allowed to make their markets at any time and then settle up with others at the end of the day. This is done to make sure there is liquidity in the markets. It is up to the individual MM to police the trading. That is what is meant when the MM is trading for their own account. For instance, they will sell 100 shares in the morning, then buy 100 shares later that same day.
RAFF
RAFF | M | Rafferty Capital Markets, LLC | Main Contact Number | 646-572-3310
http://raffertycapitalmarkets.com/
RAFF is a boutique MM catering to private clients and also trading for their own account.
ARCA is owned by NASDAQ. It is an automated order routing service that combines all NASDAQ trading into one platform. The Nordic system would be a part of this.
The ARCA whale is finally found. It makes sense that the Nordnet orders would be routed through that MM.
The reaction of analysts when the upgrade to Naz occurs will be total surprise. All of a sudden they have to look at a highly profitable company with a long history of growth in earnings. At the same time, this company is selling at a PE of 1. The reality will be some panic buying, mainly by the funds in the sectors of agriculture and growth stocks (about 40 funds should be interested the first day).
Has anyone emailed Peter with a question about the scope and direction of the ecommerce/emarketing effort that was discussed in the last call?
There is a right way and a wrong way to use tax money. Some states do just fine, but others have union contracts which mandate the use of 5 workers and 3 supervisors to do the work of 2 people. Cut out the waste and higher taxes are not necessary to get superior results.
However, the lower oil prices are having an effect on taxes. There is a movement by legislatures to reap the benefits of lower gas prices by raising the gas tax. The solution to this is to vote the democratic spenders/wasters out of office. The dems will never let an opportunity to raise taxes escape them.
Regular trading hours on Dec 31. Market closed all day on Jan 1. Regular hours on Friday.
The key thing to watch for SIAF in 2015 is the growth story.
More Tesco outlets, several new distribution centers in major cities, and the start-up of operations at the mega farm for prawn production all indicate that revenues will be on an upward curve for the full year.
The Yahoo shareholders as well as everyone else knew far in advance of the IPO that Yahoo owned that position. The gain was factored into the Yahoo price far in advance. That won't be the case with SJAP.
When SJAP is listed approximately 40% of SJAP will become the basis for the new shares. The rest of SJAP will be held by the current owners. The key to unlocking the hidden value in the company is that the new investors will have to pay a higher PE multiple for their shares which in turn raises the value of the rest of the company.