Right here, Right now -
We're overbought, way overvalued, and overextended -
IWM puts here, the Oct 18th, the 225's are at 8.25
The QQQ puts, the Oct 18th, the 480's are at 12.20

On the crazy bounce days, like today,
what amazes me is people have the confidence to hold overnight -
with PPI tomorrow -
with the Shiller PE at 35 -
with everyone knowing we have econ contraction -
we still have an issue with inflation -
monstrous debt everywhere -
This is not a healthy market, this is the FOMO and the Greater Fool theory.

IWM at 208.35 is a great, long term, SHORT and HOLD
Such a bearish pattern, hard time even clawing its way back to green on the day....
Ominous signs, no support buying by the 'tutes.

Doubled the QQQ puts here -
The Sept 20th 460's @ 7.86

Check an hourly candle QQQ chart, this bounce was expected back to the top of the downward channel.
So if the CPI comes in HOT tomorrow ??
It actually doesn't matter - no way rate cuts will stop the coming Juggernaut that the debt will bring.

Doubled the QQQ puts here -
The Sept 20th 460's @ 7.86

Check an hourly candle QQQ chart, this bounce was expected back to the top of the downward channel.
So if the CPI comes in HOT tomorrow ??
It actually doesn't matter - no way rate cuts will stop the coming Juggernaut that the debt will bring.

Bought SPY puts here
The Sept 27th 550's @ 9.15
Watching to add to/double the QQQ puts position -
Few realize how nasty, how quickly it's going to get.
Check KRE, it's starting.
Gold is also sending a pre-indication
Econ contraction everywhere - debt that can't be handled everywhere -
Private sector hurting and gov't expansion is masking how bad it is.
we already have solid overhead resistance and the bounce of this week IS WEAK.
Solid downward channels on the 15 min candle chart.
Get ready.

Bought QQQ puts here -
The Sept 20th 460's @ 8.52

Bought QQQ puts here -
The Sept 20th 460's @ 8.52

Charts look terrible -
Econ data is weak and contracting -
Buying the puts, a month out, will be big gainers.
SPY at 547.00 here
QQQ at 456.50 here
IWM at 207.00

Thanks for putting these out -
It's nice they continually update -
Downward channels everywhere, or lower highs,
except the tech and chip stocks -
It's just astonishing.
All signs point to econ issues, whether it's debt, the employment charade in the numbers -
losing full time jobs for part time, inflation still rolling, no matter how they want to try and "celebrate"
a miniscule drop....

We're soo near a hard pullback -
Many items way overextended -
Breadth is gone -
$TRAN, IWM, RSP, etc... falling -
The safe havens will collapse.
QQQ at 476
NVDA and ARM, SMH, will drop hard -
Even FNGU will give a good return over the summer.
You just can't get multiple gap ups - on "nothing" and expect such poor structure to hold.
the July 19th puts are still with low premiums.
The NVDA July 19th 130 puts at under $7 are a great buy here. - I grabbed a handful at 6.60 15 minutes into the open

AAPL and MSFT holding it all up here -
we have IWM red -
RSP red -
QQQE red -
even FNGU red -

seems like a great put opportunity -
I grabbed a couple of Jan 19th QQQ 368 puts on Friday - at $11.20
and ready to add a couple more at just over $10 - if the QQQ gets back to the 369 area.

so much time to play with -
IMHO, the QQQ goes back to 350 during the next month.

All in all,
I am still very bearish - especially with the many factors that I won't even start to list -
at about half way through the day, we just felt very oversold and the selling pressure fading.
I am just looking for a solid bounce day -
We've seen a hard drop of 5% here... In 10 days.

knew it - have actually been having some good luck recently, grabbing good gains.
sometimes it's amazing - 60 days ago, everyone ready to step up and buy every little dip on the way up - bulls everywhere -
and now..... no buyers - or maybe even worse - buyers just constantly squashed by big volume on the ask -
Distribution to the max.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172471885

and at this time, just think of
How a gap up in the morning would create an upward frenzy.

So who is carrying the risks here ?

IF the QQQ
finishes above 355 today - even the slightest hint of a bounce - (at 354.25 now)
we can run and gap up tomorrow - green tomorrow.
The gamblers will remember they have a couple of marbles in the pouch -
and with Greed whispering in their ears -
they'll buy and we'll climb in the last 90 minutes.
the 354 Friday calls are low risk here.
It all feels coiled tight here.

and also - everyone hates them, but GDX and GDXJ are great buys here - to hold for a month or 2.

If we sell off here -
during the last 90 minutes, and then a small gap down and run downward tomorrow -
SOOO many Bulls trapped.....
It changes everything on the charts -

I feel ominous signs here and now -
Retest of the 50 from below and fail -
on both the SPY and QQQ -

It could easily get NASTY -
That H&S which all are watching come to fruition...
SPY at 441.20
we'll see what happens.

and again...
these below $7's are now at 9.50

Killin' it...

Knew it was coming...

and here and now, going with the Sept 15th QQQ puts -
the 370's at below $7 is not a bad play.

Time for a hard drop - a credit collapse....

I knew they would launch -
especially Silver -
with the BRIC's.....
In those calls at 0.98

Gold and Silver holding well -
and check the chart, they come off the bottoms really well -
environment is right for a rush to tangible assets.

Holding the Sept 15th SLV $20 calls here.

Gold and Silver holding very well here -
Nice candles today - nice tails -
Environment is perfect for them launching.

Yes - I fully understand - thanks -
I fully know what I am working with.
I am using it because it's very liquid and just want to score the short term bounce -
Hence going with the calls -
Scaling in -
If I didn't want to hold physical, there's always PSLV or CEF.

Most think the precious metals are dead,
but think of it this way....
How many days, here in 2023 have Gold and Silver been below their 200 days ??
It's started, little by little.

This aged well - VERY well -
and it will continue.

New call, buy the Oct 20 SLV calls here - the $20 calls.

The precious metals are finally ready to launch, for a dozen reasons -
SLV is at 20.90 here

One of the worst things occurring,
And it's criminal, IMHO,
Is the big banks, still getting free money,
And they're dumping it into the markets.

I see that ending quickly here, as we're just getting too overvalued and big risks still in real estate CRE and other areas.
Inflation has crushed the consumer discretionary money and that's not coming back easily.
I agree that we could easily see another inflation wave up.

Who will find big gains?
Who's going to double their money during August and September?
Or even a triple?

The put buyers.
Right here, the Oct 20th SPY 450 puts are at $7. The QQQ 385's are at $12.
That's incredibly cheap.
Historical low for buying that much time.

We know how overvalued the market is, especially compared to the global economic conditions.
We know the indications are overbought and how fast it can tumble.
Theta on them is nothing here.
Over the next 2 weeks, scale in, or buy the spikes and selling at even small dips is 15%.
Also good 401k hedge.
It'll work...
We'll revisit and review this in time.

"Despite headwinds"
That's an understatement.
The masses get easily distracted.
Check the charts, Aug/Sept will resemble Feb/March.
8% down, Back to the 50 day and we'll be lucky if it stops there.
The stage is set.
Overvaluation and negative divergence. https://t.co/6oUuFb9Wlj pic.twitter.com/8dzDYmlSpx

— Jeffrey Lebowski (@to_borg) July 30, 2023

Here's a quick page which
shows both 5 min and 15 min candles -
on the 15 min candles, it looks like IWM and RSP are ready to take another step down -
weak basing here - no real bounce -

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Yong Pan - his public list
Now covers hot stocks

Just dumped half of them at 3.80
Couldn't help myself

Probably premature ejectulation....
but it's gains baby !!

Happy Friday
I'm already thinking, next week is an option expiration week...
And what happens?
What do the market makers, the Boyz, the sharks do?
They make sure and cause pain.
They get options to expire worthless.
Plenty of calls to destroy.
They will be taking it down.
Expect it.
Yesterday I bought IWM puts big.
The July 28 193's at average cost of 2.54
And I think we'll see it back below 190.
Over the past few months, such poor structure on this rise upward, plenty of gaps and untested points of control.
I think it'll be the small caps which show the weakness the most, and plenty of selling to get to safety.

QQQ and 372.34
That is where it opened -
if it drops below, it may tumble...

What I see and
IMHO only,

Put/Call ratio very, very low.
Last hour retail buying ramp up of Tuesday trading forced shorts to cover.
We're near the top of the recent trading range.
Bulls already in, and so IF we don't see a perfect CPI #, IF we don't climb immediately,
We'll sell off pretty hard.
Bulls carrying solid risk here.
Bond market saying we should not have been climbing recently.

Either way, if it's a nothing burger,
I think Bulls will be getting back out by Friday close.
There's very little confidence and conviction here, by the Bulls.
They recently have just wanted to grab a spike and sell...
Dangerous market.
IWM also vulnerable as it's loaded with regional bank stocks, and another blowup is inevitable.

The metals and miners are having a good day here -
Remember, all of this is about "perceived future value" and
I don't think the general public has a clue yet -
as to the potential of a gold backed currency involved in alot of trading -
or as to how "held down" the miners and metals have been for years.

I keep thinking - How can we stop it all, if there's 40 countries ready to trade / or accepting the idea of trading in a different base.
And we're back to "the perception of it occurring"
Obviously I am bullish, and IMHO, GDX hits 40 here in 2023 -
If you add 15% to Gold -
Many, Many of the miners, all the sudden, are very under book value and all that stuff.

This could light a bonfire
under the metals and miners.
Remember, the market is all about speculation and perceived future value.
This info has received 100s of thousands of views.

Was this why Yellen went to China for a meeting with Xi ?

Yesterday, we had confirmed the most important monetary development since Bretton Woods 80 years ago: BRICS and SCO will adopt a gold standard for trade. This is over 50% of global GDP on a PPP basis, and 64% of the worlds population. $,£,€ and yen will be toast.

— Alasdair Macleod (@MacleodFinance) July 8, 2023

No confidence in the clown show -
House of cards - no solid fundamentals in the economy -
That shows us we may now be a short the spikes market.

Everyone knows pain is coming and it's a recession, already started.
Soo many cracks that could break the dam.

the last 2 hours will show us -
how confident and committed are the Bulls -
I wouldn't want to carry items over the weekend.
QQQ is at 370.07
NVDA is at 431.55

I think going with the July 21 puts here, at the money -
these will work well.

so much for that island left stranded in the sky -
they fooled many.....

This could get ugly, quickly.
The SPY and QQQ are ready to begin a game of hot potato.

China to restrict metal exports that are crucial for chip production

Even though it's a half day, these are going to be ugly candles

Stock market irrational exuberance.
Right now, there's no perceived risk. No thoughts the long trade will lose money.
Doesn't matter if a company has no growth, but has a p/e of 30, or even 130, IF the mentality is that it can be bought, then sold for a profit, there is demand.

It's amazing how high above the 200 day we are, on both the SPY and the QQQ.

So Twitter is now limiting the
Number of posts that can be read,
Just when the European chaos has climbed to a higher level.
Unbelievable... Coincidence?
Nothing is worse than when regulations and limitations are implemented,
"For the good of the people" or
"To better your experience".

Premium burn and holding it up -
window dressing and into end of Qtr...
We're not "really" going anywhere until next week -

and we'll see what July brings.
I have a feeling it'll rain down fire and brimstone.

On Friday and next week, I will watch for July 21st QQQ puts and also
waiting and watching for any life in the metals and miners.
I would love to see them start a 6 month bull run.
The most abused sector in history.
$Silver at 23 and it should be at 40.

Does anyone closely watch the 0 DTE items?
or track them.

The setup has recently been one of the main reasons for the sustained rally -
the big buying of the calls, and the writers of the calls, having to protect themselves.

I can just feel it in my bones - soon, very soon, there will be a reckoning -
a day when the 0 DTE puts will pay big - a mini crash day when a 0 DTE put can be
bought for 50 cents and then 4 hours later it will be worth 10 bucks -
a SPY 12 point down day.

I can feel it coming in the air.... soon.

Just wondering if there would be a way to spot hints to it occurring.
A day with a lazy, first 30 minute climb of a dollar, then ending the day at 9 bucks down.
Remember those?