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About time!
As I said in July, I'm booked. I'll be staying with friends
in a timeshare unit about 10-15 mins from the strip (trying to keep costs down). Arriving on the 14th evening (frequent flyer points).
I hope to meet some of the VMCers!
First time to Vegas (yeah, I don't get let out of my cage much)so I will be no help in finding a restaurant or banquet room.
JFF7
Oh oh
I guess that makes me the second party pooper.
JFF7
WEX mine visit
I read this post last week when it was copied and posted to another board. I reread it again but got the same feeling after reading it. Not sure what it is about the writing style. It's almost too smooth. When I read it, I get the feeling I am being led down the garden path.
Could be nothing at all, just a persasively written posting by a ardent shareholder. On the otherhand, my gut doesn't like it.
Sorry for the opinion-based only post. I know most posters only like to read facts supported by a link. For some reason I felt compelled to comment on this post.
JFF7
PS. I am long on WEX and believe there is a lot of potential value there once the mine becomes commercially operational and they start pursuing the high grade ore. Maybe the market will discover it before then.
Cl001 - Gold
I am participating this week with the Gold run. I am about 30% Gold and freed up another 10% on Friday in case there is some kind of pullback next week.
But I am very wary of Gold. Every gold bug will tell you how predictable it is (it's going to the moon now!), but my feeling is that there are so many interested parties, some with very great influence, that are in control of things, that it is in fat very unpredictable. It's not a simple case of supply and demand with a few twists thrown in. It's very convoluted. Certinly not one that I understand.
Proceed with caution, but then you usually do. I'm sure you'll be one of the first ones out since you seem to stay on top of the markets signals so well.
JFF7
China's copper needs #2
Here is the url for the report mentioned in the previous post.
https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SGL00129.pdf
repost from InvestorVillage on China's copper needs.
"CitiCorp On When Will The Cycle End...
pg 12 of the report I referenced earlier this year.
"... The charts indicate that once GDP reaches $15,000-$20,000 per capita, metal intensity begins to plateau. China's GDP per capital is currently around $7,000 indicating that metal intensity is likely to continue to rise at strong levels for the next 5-10 years. By the time China reaches a GDP of $15,000/capita and assuming copper consumption per capita of 10 kg and a population of 1.4 bn, annual cooper consumption would be in the region of 14 Mt - 82% of 2006 total copper consumption and nearly four times China's 2006 consumption of 3.6 Mt".
Its going to take a lot of new mines to satisfy that (and it doesn't even address India or other developing economies).
Monty"
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4923&pt=msg&mid=2935985
Moly stocks doing well today also
Just noticed that ROK, AUA, TCM and therefore MLY are doing well today. Upwards pressure on my MLY warrants. I am assuming this is just recovery of lost headway from the correction.
JFF7
Cl001 - Gold
Could this movement in Gold just be the usual seasonal upward move that take place this time of the year?
I think the National Post said this has happened for 7 years running at this time of the year. That trend usually last 2 months.
JFF7
PS Waiting for my CMM to move up with the others.
10 Bagger - GFCI
Wow, I can't believe people are still playing this stock, GFCI. It under a penny now and traded as low as 1/10th of 1 cents in July, but people are still holding on and giving it a lot of attention. BBB atnd other still there preaching the virtues of that invenstemtn and Jim Dial. Incredible!
JFF7
Sallay Malay reports
Maybe this will bode well for BMC.
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/56275/Sally-Malay-rides-high-on-nickel
Sally Malay rides high on nickel
30-August-07 by Mark Beyer
Latest News
Indonesia expects Aussie uranium if nuclear plan proceeds - 31 Aug, 09:39am
Second airline invited for Perth-Geraldton route - 31 Aug, 09:29am
Harvey Norman reports profit surge - 31 Aug, 07:43am
Competition bureau approves Rio Tinto purchase of Alcan - 31 Aug, 07:40am
Territory to adopt "wait and see" approach in bid for ConsMin - 31 Aug, 07:32am
Today's headlines - 31 Aug, 07:13am
Strong nickel prices and a big increase in production volumes have enabled nickel miner Sally Malay Mining Ltd to record a 453 per cent increase in net profit after tax to $88.1 million for the year to June 2007.
Sally Malay joins Western Australia's other major nickel stocks, such as Minara Resources Ltd, Jubilee Mines NL, Independence Group NL and Mincor Resources Ltd in reporting sharply higher profits.
The nickel price has tumbled from the peak it reached in mid 2007 but is still well above the levels that prevailed in recent years, which augurs well for the sector.
Sally Malay has also predicted a big jump in production volumes and has increased its exploration budget to $10 million to identify additional resources.
The company lifted production volumes to 11,920 tonnes of nickel in 2006-07 and is predicting output of 16,000 tonnes this year and 20,000 tonnes in 2008-09.
The higher production helped the company lift sales revenue by 125 per cent to $302.2 million.
Earnings per share jumped 397 per cent to 45.7 cents while the company declared an inaugural dividend of 12 cents per share.
"The company is in good shape with a robust financial position and poised for strong growth," managing director Peter Harold said.
He said positives for the company included higher production volumes, the repayment last year of all of its debt and changes to its hedging structure.
Mr Harold said about 35 per cent of 2007-08 production was hedged through forward contracts, adding that the company had bought put options which would give it some upside if the nickel price rose.
Sally Malay is planning to invest about $80 million in capital projects this year, which Mr Harold believes will set up the company for longer-term growth.
He said it was difficult to make precise predcitions about future earnings.
"Anywhere between fifty and a hundred million of profit would be a fantastic result," he said.
tomorrow. Congrats Niles!
JFF7
CMM
Well, they did better than I thought they would. They were profitable and production was above where i thought it would come in.
Maybe we will see a little appreciation in the share price from here.
JFF7
Nuts - WEX
Thanks for pointing out the update to Sedar. It's been about a week since I last checked.
What do you suppose id the purpose of capitalizing the payment received from the joint venture?
Can't say I got much out of the management discussion. Revealing buggets like ....full ramp up will occur when the development work is complete (my paraphrasing).... aren't really all that helpful.
I expect this one to drag out.
JFF7
Why was the uptick rule eliminated for shorting recently?
JFF&
Warrants - Nosleep
Here is a good link.
www.canadianwarrants.com
Actually, you hit upon my strategy for playing the rebound. I swapped out stocks for warrants to some extent. I did not catch the lowest of the bottom that week (the market may retest or go lower yet) but I did try to catch it as quickly as I saw it start to turn around. On the MLY warrants, I was too early. On the Qua warrants, there just wasn't much available until 3.40 - 3.50.
At these levels, I like warrants for QUA, TCM, EPM, and MLY.
Good luck but be careful. I don't hold that many warrants in these stocks, just enough to turbocharge the recovery. The exception was QUA which I have gone heavy in to the warrants as I expect to hold these for 18 months. My average cost now is 2.80 but I hope I will be able to sell them for 12-15 dollars in 18 months.
JFF7
Niles - race to the end
Niles, that's mighty nice of you to makr the finish line for the rest of us! LOL.
Seriously though, I probably would have done the same thing. It looked like a real safe decision at the time and may well turn out to be. It seems the old saying.. all ships rise ... might have been the only factor overlooked. Your boat would have had a very strong chance of rising with eveyone else's and certainly would have clenched the victory for you.
As it is, someoone is going to have to have a great week to catch you.
VALUEMIND,RESEARCHER59,WYOBUFORD,LENTINMAN, MICHAEL T,DANLC,OLDPRO,YIELDDUDE,GILEAD23,2MORROWSGAINS,and SKIDOS are all within striking distance. Even CLIFFVB could make it with another exceptional week like last week.
Come on guys, get the lead out (oh, that one even works well (IVW up 21% last week) and let's give Niles something to watch.
All in fun,
JFF7
Nice day
Up 3-4% on most stocks. Only down on CMM (my nemisis).
CS.TO best perfomer of the day for me.
Anyone pick up some cheap TAM? I have yet to bite on it because I am concentrating on producers or near term producers in an attempt to stay away from any miners that need financing to move into production. Very tempting though. SRZ might be a safer bet though.
Have a great weekend everyone!
JFF7
CS.TO upward movement
CL001 and others. Thanks for the heads up on this bargain. Got a small position yesterday. Finding it hard to find cash with so many opportunities out there. May need to start selling GOLD stocks to fund BM but Gold stocks have been my insurance in case things go south.
I think BM stocks in general (especially copper and nickel) are getting a push upwards today based on the rosy Durable Goods report and the stats on new housing starts for July (up 2.8%?). Can we believe these reports? Will the market believe them?
JFF7
Baystock - YNG.TO
Sounds interesting. I will dig into it more this weekend.
Thanks for the idea.
JFF7
Is Nickel turning the corner ?
Probably to soon to tell but it's looking encouraging. I bought more BMC and LBE today. Under water here but thing can improve quickly if the general market conditions stablize.
http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml
Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $11.86/lb - 3 months buyer - $11.97/lb (90.4% higher than 1/1/07). Baltic Dry Index slipped again today, dropping 46 points to 7,243. So China raises interest rates for the 4th time this year (usually bearish), nickel inventories grew (almost always bearish), stock exchanges are in a wait and see attitude about what further repercussions, if any, the sub-prime problem will cause (potentially bearish), but nickel prices gained today. How come? Well, just saying the LME inventory levels rose again, doesn't tell a complete story. Here are the daily numbers. Rotterdam, Netherlands, received 366 tonnes. On the outbound, Rotterdam shipped 48 tonnes, Singapore shipped 24 tonnes, and Busan, South Korea, shipped 102 tonnes. So what? #1 In the last two days, nickel inventories have grown by 150 tonnes gross. But after considering cancelled warrants, which almost rose to 4% today, they have actually fallen by 24 tonnes. #2 Last week, during all 5 trading days, LME warehouses received 1896 tonnes for an average of 380 tonnes per day. This week, they have received 462 tonnes in 2 days, for an average of 231 tonnes per day. #3 Last week, over a 5 day period, 8 outbound shipments were made, totalling 372 tonnes. In the first two days of this week, 7 outbound shipments have already taken 300 tonnes. Two weeks ago, 12 shipments totalling 480 tonnes shipped. Have we turned a corner? Like yesterday, we aren't ready to say that yet, but the clues are starting to hint that change may be in the wind. The London markets apparently think something is up, as 3 month nickel ended the trading day at $12.34/lb ($27,195/tonne)
CMM - Not bitter, just realistic
I was not lucky enough to buy CMM last time around at 55 cents but I did buy in the low / middle 80 cent range on a Thursday or Friday morning, went for lunch and came back and it had jumped up to something like 1.12. I sold half for a quick gain. Next business day it went to 1.2o something. I started to regret selling that chunk so quickly.
After that it was all down hill. I held the rest and I continue to hold. It been a while. I've read a lot more about the company over that time although I am far from an expert on it. The last quarter was only profitable because of some non- normal business practices. Nothing illegal, just arranging their business to maximize profitability for the short term to get the share price up. I am 80-90 % sure they will not be profitable this qtr although most people expect they will. I am pretty sure they will miss 100K guidance for 2007 as well.
Bottomline is they are just strecthed too thin on money, talent and time.
Maybe Bobwins wants to comment on their ability to deliever as he has been in CMM a lot longer than I have.
Lots of potential for the Shahuindo property but they are 1-2 years away from settling their legal problems with it and then need to develop it. I hope they can make a deal with Sulliden to jointly develop the property so they can save time but that is unlikely given how things have gone to date.
CMM has always been undervalued but has never been able to unlock that value. Maybe Gold breaking out over 700 dollasr to a new high can do the trick for them.
JFF7
CMM - no sale
I agree. It is cheap here and they have had some good news on the court case lately but as I already own some, I wouldn't buy any more even at these levels.
I don't think they will post a profit this qtr.
They have lots of properties and quite a few of them on the go but each has it's own problems. Perhaps that is why Peggy can pick them up at firesale prices.
CMM needs time, money and some good personnel to start making a go of these properties. If they could even get one going well, maybe it would be enough to give them some momentum.
Peg keeps trying to deal her way into profitability. I wish her luck (and me as a shareholder) but there are enough other good opportunities out there (like NGG, SGR, and EPM) that I will pass on any more "opportunities" to own more of this one.
I prefer SGR because of the world class grade and location in North America but even they have been slow on delivery. Doesn't seem like you can put together a gold mine with good grades,good management and the right amount of funding. Sorta like a golf game. You never find the right day when you are driving, chipping and putting well all on the same day. The closest you get is two out of three.
JFF7
Metals price risks stabilizing
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Scotia Capital is saying price risks in the base metals sector have moderated, reflecting the “observed stability of the LME complex” in relation to other asset classes during the latest market turbulence.“Given China’s importance to demand growth, we continue to believe that only an (unlikely) sharp slowdown in U.S. growth could meaningfully alter our supply-demand outlook,” write analysts Onno Rutten and Lawrence Smith.
As a result, they increased their 2008 copper price forecast by 9 per cent to $2.40 (U.S.) a pound and lowered their zinc price forecast by 11 per cent to $1.20 a pound. On a micro level, they upgraded Lundin Mining Corp. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd to “sector outperform” from “sector perform,” based on recent share price drops and an improved copper outlook. They also upgraded FNX Mining Co. to “sector perform” from “sector underperform,” based on recent share price performance.
On the flip-side, HudBay Minerals Inc. was downgraded to “sector perform” from “sector outperform,” based on a dimmer zinc outlook, with Fording Canadian Coal Trust downgraded to “sector underperform” from “sector outperform,” based on the stock’s relative performance.
http://tdw.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/RTGAM/20070821/WBmarkets20070821141332/stocks....
JFF7
Observations
Starting to notice that it is copper stocks that are leading the way back. QUA has made consistent gain in the last three trading days. Most copper stocks up today.
Thompson Creek (Moly stock) is doing very well today.. Up 7-8% at 17.38 and that down from the high of 17.90 for the day.
I hope that helps all the Moly stocks.
Nickel stocks flatenning now ready to start a climb up.
JFF7
Bobwins - BMC
"based on 2 times cashflow.."
what vaue of nickel was used for determining the cashflow?
JFF7
Bobwins - BMC
"based on 2 times cashflow.."
what vaue of nickel was used for determining the cashflow?
JFF7
Asian / Australian markets tonight
anybody watching thiese markets tonight. Toook a look just before I go to bed. Not a pretty sight. Not sure I will sleep all that well tonight.
JFF7
ROK down hard (8.5% to $2.26)
Wow, didn't think these Moly stocks would be hit so hard. Wasn't ROK over 3.50 just recently? That's almost as bad as how hard the nickel stocks are getting hit. Is it time to buy some ROK?
Picked up some MLY warrants today at .71. Finally looks like a buy but it may go lower yet.
JFF7
QUA
QUA is now trading at a trailing P/E of ($14.26 / 3.78) = 3.81
Unfortunately Europe and Asian markets are ugly and LME copper inventories rose.
Good luck deciding whether to buy or sell or hold. I am holding.
JFF7
Qua results from Sedar
SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS:
• Earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 were $36,556 or $0.78 per share (basic) compared to a loss of
$21,997 or $0.59 per share for the quarter ended June 30, 2006.
• The Robinson Mine generated revenue of $141,139 in the second quarter of 2007 from the sale of 32.3 million
pounds of copper and 23,607 ounces of gold in concentrates compared to revenue of $142,225 from the sale of
33 million pounds of copper and 17,574 ounces of gold in the second quarter of 2006.
• The Company has settled the last of the forward sale contracts related to 2006 production, and 2007 metal
production is unhedged. The Company incurred a loss on derivatives of $10,267 in the second quarter of 2007
compared to a loss of $101,360 in the second quarter of 2006.
• The Company completed a bought-deal equity financing for gross proceeds of $136 million ($Cdn 150 million)
and used a portion of the proceeds to repay $50 million of debt.
• Production for the quarter was 32.2 million pounds of copper and 25,893 ounces of gold compared to 27.8
million pounds of copper and 12,532 ounces of gold for the second quarter of 2006.
• Onsite and offsite costs* were $53,716 and $15,681 respectively for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 compared
to $44,879 and $23,100 respectively for the same period in 2006.
• The Robinson Mine continues to focus on safety and training and operated with no lost time accidents in the
quarter. During the quarter, the mine also passed 1 million man-hours and 12 months without a lost time
accident.
• The acquisition of InterMoly was completed in the second quarter with the Company obtaining 82% of
InterMoly’s outstanding shares in exchange for the issuance of 3.2 million Quadra shares.
• InterMoly commenced the feasibility level studies required to make a development decision for the Malmbjerg
molybdenum project.
• The Company ended the second quarter with working capital of $290 million.
JFF7
http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00020335
Good Research report on Base Metals
Here is a link to a good research report on base metals (and precious metals) from Standard Bank Commodities Research - Commodities Weekly
http://cm2.zawya.com/researchreports/sbl/20070802_SBL_060536.pdf
Red Dog shipping 19 days earlier this season due to global warming. Copper outlook is good for next year. Prices may peak again.
Nickel constrained by stainless steel producers agreeing to reduce production by 30% for August.
JFF7
Cartonet : Coxe link
Here is the link to Donald Coxe calls
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/
JFF7
Donald Coxe held an unscheduled (not part of his regular schedule) conference call today to reassure the big money that they should not unwind their commodity positions.
JFF7
Donald Coxe held an unscheduled (not part of his regular schedule) conference call today to reassure the money that they should not unwind their commodity positions.
JFF7
Nosleep MLY.wt
You might want to consider holding off on buying those warrants. Although they are at a low of 1.08.... or 1.07 just now, they are rated by Canadian Warrants site as overvaued right now. Their FMV is .71. Even if they are off by 10-20% in their valuation, you would be still paying way too much.
The question is how low will they go before Moly has another run. I do think they would move up significantly if that happens (despite being overvalued right now).
Just a couple of thoughts to consider.
JFF7
Tomorrow
Will tomorrow be a repeat of today?
In some ways I hope it is (as long as it is not worse that today) because sometimes you need to tack a step back before you move forward.
Didn't make any adjustments on my portfolio today. Usually these weak moments make it clear which holding are weak for the short term and which ones are strong. But today, it is red across the board with the exception of QUA. Don't know why QUA is the exception.
JFF7
What a day
A low volume, low volatility day. Truely, one of the dog days of summer.
JFF7
I own lots of QUA already and it has done very well for me, espeically the warrants which I acquired on the dip. I am a long term holder of this stock because of the projects they have lined up and the financing I believe they will be able to pull off to make those project happen (Sierra Gorde will require a partner).
ROK I do not own and have not owned. That was a mistake as it is becoming clearer to me that it is going to be one of the instituional investor's darlings for MOly. When they explore a little more and prove up reserves beyond what they have established so far, they will be even more attractive. I like the fact that the stock price rises when they issue PP shares. Not to many companies share price performs that way.
WEX I already own, so I will need to be patient and wait for the dust to settle. Unfortuately, I do not think the disagreement with their partner in this joint venture is as trivial as some think. Phoenix's claims may be anchored in the remedy clauses of their joint veture agreement. That may well govern the way any contract dispute they have is settled.
AUA? I'll take a look as well.
JFF7
Impact on WEX
Maybe this will get WEX moving in the right direction. It would be nice if they could have their long awaited report on their reserves ready but I get the impression they are still aways away from that. It takes a lot of time and effort to put together those reports. That takes money to drive it as well. These guys don't have a lot of money floating around. Not that the holding company is issuing distributions, that should change.
Will their focus be improving infrastructure and efficiencies of the current operations or will it be on proving up reserves. Or can they do both at the same time?
JFF7
Peddle faster! It's hard drafting when you are slowing down.