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Tuesday, 08/21/2007 8:47:54 PM

Tuesday, August 21, 2007 8:47:54 PM

Post# of 35736
Is Nickel turning the corner ?

Probably to soon to tell but it's looking encouraging. I bought more BMC and LBE today. Under water here but thing can improve quickly if the general market conditions stablize.

http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml

Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $11.86/lb - 3 months buyer - $11.97/lb (90.4% higher than 1/1/07). Baltic Dry Index slipped again today, dropping 46 points to 7,243. So China raises interest rates for the 4th time this year (usually bearish), nickel inventories grew (almost always bearish), stock exchanges are in a wait and see attitude about what further repercussions, if any, the sub-prime problem will cause (potentially bearish), but nickel prices gained today. How come? Well, just saying the LME inventory levels rose again, doesn't tell a complete story. Here are the daily numbers. Rotterdam, Netherlands, received 366 tonnes. On the outbound, Rotterdam shipped 48 tonnes, Singapore shipped 24 tonnes, and Busan, South Korea, shipped 102 tonnes. So what? #1 In the last two days, nickel inventories have grown by 150 tonnes gross. But after considering cancelled warrants, which almost rose to 4% today, they have actually fallen by 24 tonnes. #2 Last week, during all 5 trading days, LME warehouses received 1896 tonnes for an average of 380 tonnes per day. This week, they have received 462 tonnes in 2 days, for an average of 231 tonnes per day. #3 Last week, over a 5 day period, 8 outbound shipments were made, totalling 372 tonnes. In the first two days of this week, 7 outbound shipments have already taken 300 tonnes. Two weeks ago, 12 shipments totalling 480 tonnes shipped. Have we turned a corner? Like yesterday, we aren't ready to say that yet, but the clues are starting to hint that change may be in the wind. The London markets apparently think something is up, as 3 month nickel ended the trading day at $12.34/lb ($27,195/tonne)

It's better to be out wishing you were in than in wishing you were out.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". - John Maynard Keynes

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