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POG is taking off...don't know why yet but won't hurt PTQs valuation case.
JFF7
rebought trading shares but not establishing a long position today. Silver prices need to strengthen. Need the election and its effect over. That may take sometime. Hopefully this gives PTQs fundamentals time to improve.
Big thing is to see their capitalized position improve through that nonexistent debt financing they keep shining us on about or perhaps the new shine-on, land sale. Success with heap leach or Spanish ore would be gravy.
JFF7
Why has Petaquilla not not been granted full concession rights if some of the applications are as old as 5 years?
JFF7
Yes PEC was halted because the price dropped so swiftly. Could have been leaked bad news or just someone dumping that caused some stops to be taken out. Cascade effect. IRROC asking company if they have reason for the share price drop.
We'll find out tomorrow what the story is. More than likely bad news leaked but I know a lot of people were taking some off the table today, myself included. I still have the majority of my shares so hoping for just weak hands starting a stampede. Not likely though.
Two more kicks at the cat in 2013. Also Phase 2 approval pending. Still some value here even with a successful well this time around.
JFF7
Now that the poison pill is set aside, is Inmet not free to purchase shares on the open market as well as what they can get tendered?
Lots of questions outstanding.
This legislation probably contains some of the procedural answers (if you want to wade through it).
www.bcsc.bc.ca/uploadedFiles/securitieslaw/policy6/MI_62_104.pdf
JFF7
Hmmm one for Inmet. Now they are free to press the HT as far as they want. No debt financing for PTQ till the HT fails or is successful or is dropped.
Can PTQ and Inmet get back to the table to hammer out s deal for access to land on terms that both can live with? Are both parties willing to?
The share price moves higher from here. 60 cents is not enough to get 50.1 % of shares so either Inmet moves higher on the offer or PTQ gets some substantial form of payment.
Things are moving along. Nice to realize some shareholder value.
JFF7
oh yeah, another bid would trump all. Signing a debt deal would be good for longs in the long run. In the short term it may have mixed results as it would kill the existing Inmet offer which would remove current support for share price. Could / would Inmet come back with another offer? Possibly but it would have to be higher since PTQ would be in a stronger position. So I would see an intial dip and then move higher if Inmet came back to the table. All speculation that is worth nothing.
Nice volume today. Always a good sign.
JFF7
disclosure: I only have a trading position.
won't be surprised that Inmet was behind some of the low prices for PTQ over the last year. But we will never know.
Inmet has to make their moe before those production increases from the HL and new ball mill. That gives them a couple of months unless PTQ can crow about actual improvements as they happen.
JFF7
all a competing company does is keep them honest. Existing shareholders get closer to real current value. Without another offer, all they do is keep bumping their offer until they get the 50% they are looking for. That could be well below what they would otherwise had to pay.
They will get some at 60 cents and as they go higher they will get more. I don't know at what point they get what they need.
JFF7
No doubt Inmet is pushing the envelope with the amount of time given to find another buyer but they have done their homework in terms of what BCSC and courts consider sufficient time. I am not sure when the clock starts...when Inmet publicly stated they are interested or when they made their first offer. I think PTQ might be able to argue for more time.
It will be interesting to see on Nov 6th if Inmet comes out with stats on how much interest they received to their offer. Not much chance of them getting their 50.1 % but a significant uptake would set them up for another offer.
Hopefully alternative negotiations for land access are also taking place and making progress.
JFF7
Jal, unfortunately I have never had the experience of having another buyer come in to make a bid when a HT is taking place where the new bid is not serious. It takes a lot of DD to put together an offer and that costs money. At a minimum they would negotiate a significant breakup fee to cover their costs if they do make an offer. The bankers and lawyers don't work for free and certainly not peanuts.
Even white knights result in a sale of the company. Just on better terms.
JFF7
I think you are right, especially about that last part. Probably someone there but nobody they want to end up with. All part of the HT dance.
JFF7
what mystery bidder? would that still be a takeover? I thought PTQ does not want to sell. Just get the debt financing done and the HT by Inmet is dead.
JFF7
JAL,
This is still just an inferred resource. Very little value is assigned to it under the 43-101 system because so little inferred resource ends up coming out of the ground profitably.
If they want to get credit for it, they will need to do more infill drilling and get good results to upgrade it out of the inferred category.
It's good to see some numbers coming out but we still need to understand what it is we're dealing with.
JFF7
Your post makes a lot of sense to me. Lots of potential but lots obstacles along the way. I think PTQ can be successful given enough time. Perhaps it is best to think of it as a long term investment. Trading it with so many variables is difficult to do for more than quick small profits which is not something I am interested in doing.
JFF7
Your confused about me being confused...
Letting shareholders vote on the offer will be the deciding factor on setting the poison pill aside.
PTQ application and arguments about Inmet not disclosing material facts will be determined by the commission and hopefully they give a quick decision. Inmet and PTQ definitely see the "facts" differently. If they didn't, they won't be in front of the commission. The commission will have their own view and decide accordingly.
As PTQ has no one ready to make a better offer, the offer will probably be allowed to stand if Inmet gets past Tuesday. I have my doubt though about them being able to get 50%. Will they take another crack at it if they get encouraging results though? But if they did win 51% of PTQ, do they really think Panama would simply stand by and let it go. I still believe this is so much posturing to negotiate the best deal possible.
As for China as a partner, China has a history of wanting things to be done their way with their people. Panama will have their hands full with them as well. This amount of capital investment does not come without a lot of strings attached no matter who is ponying up the capital.
If the Inmet offer gets killed and Inmet does not up their offer right away, can the share price drop back significantly. Of course it can. You simply have to look at the share price history and other failed takeover offers in other companies to see that. Unfortunately that psychology works in Inmet's favor when it comes to getting acceptance of the offer.
JFF7
PTQ is saying Inmet is withholding material information. Yes Inmet would like to have access to the land PTQ has first rights to but Inmet is also on record as saying they don't need PTQs concessions. Perhaps they have an alternative plan to run at a reduced rate or such. I don't know. Yes they are on record as saying that they would like access to PTQ concession because it is critical to their current plan but they have also said they do not absolutely need it. Their filing is consistent with their position.
Also it is not Inmet's job to point out the value of PTQ. That's PTQ's job. That value should be proven but presenting an alternative offer that provides shareholders more value.
Sure requests to overturn poison pills may not be that common but when they do occur, most of the cases seem to favor overriding the poison pill and allowing the shareholders to vote on the offer. That's the over-riding principle the courts look at.
No doubt Inmet is playing hardball by keeping the pressure on but eventually the shareholder will have to be able to vote on the offer. Perhaps PTQ will be able to get a ruling that says Inmet has not allowed sufficient time for alternative to be found. But I find it strange that PTQ did not argue this point themselves.
Anyways, all PTQ has to do is get the debt financing PP in place and the offer is dead. Seems like a pretty straight forward way for PTQ to protect itself from Inmet's hostile takeover offer.
If both sides continue playing hardballl, it looks to me like mining in Panama gets delayed for a while.
JFF7
I would think the poison pill will be quashed on Tuesday since Inmet is only trying to put the vote to the shareholders. Unless PTQ manages to argue that they have another bona fide suitor in the wings that needs more time to step forward.
If PTQ really wants to kill this offer, simply get the debt financing put in place.
Lots of ways for this to play out but Inmet is going to have a hard time proceeding if these Panamanian rulings continue to go against them. The only winners here might turn out to be the environmentalists.
JFF7
yes most of what is going on in the public is simply posturing by each side to negotiate a better deal.
If PTQ truly isn't for sale, why not just put in place the new debt deal. That would kill Inmet's offer outright. It's been three months since they announced it which means it been much longer than that since they have been thinking about it and trying to put it together. It's possible it is just posturing. Panama is behind PTQ and the courts / boadrs / enforcement authorities are turning up the heat.
A deal has to be made for Inmet to have use of PTQ's land to some extent or other. Inmet knows it and PTQ knows it. Inmet's project cannot be allowed to fail or be delayed. A deal will be hammered out eventually. The longer time goes by, the more pressure on both parties to make a deal happen. Inmet holds the weak hand so the offers will only get better (either cash, % of the action, or out right purchase).
Although it's nice to sit back and speculate, there is really no move for the shareholder here other than sit back and wait.
JFF7
IT would be nice to break the offer by signing a debt PP rather than letting the offer just lapse. Should be available anytime if that intel is accurate. Have to give them some time for the paper work.
JFF7
signing that debt deal would do it. Should be any day now. They proposed it three months ago.
JFF7
Thanks for the input guys.
JFF7
AUN.V
any particular reason or theories on why this one is getting more beat up recently than other silver stocks?
Did the stock run up ahead of itself and is just retracing ? Did they miss on some fundamental basis that the market is punishing them for? Is some big players pushing the price down so as to accumulate ?
Just trying to put my finger on the reason for this.
JFF7
pump and dump?
JFF7
Fundamentals continue to improve. Can't wait for all this Inmet fighting to end.
PETAQUILLA MINERALS LTD. HIGHLIGHTS FIRST QUARTER RESULTS OF FISCAL 2013
Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. Highlights First Quarter Results of Fiscal 2013
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Oct. 17, 2012) - Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (TSX:PTQ)(OTCBB:PTQMF)(FRANKFURT:P7Z) ("Petaquilla" or the "Company") announces its first quarter operating and financial results for its Molejon gold mine, located in Panama. Currency is reported in United States dollars unless otherwise indicated.
Molejon Mine Operating and Financial Highlights for First Quarter of Fiscal 2013
Gold production at 17,882 ounces, an increase of 1% from prior quarter
Gold equivalent production at 18,459 ounces, an increase of 2% from prior quarter
Gold stockpiled at 112,266 ounces, an increase of 17% from prior quarter
Revenue at $25.9 million, an increase of 8% from prior quarter
Cash cost per ounce of gold equivalent sold at $524, a decrease of 14% from prior quarter
Operating margin at $10.6 million, an increase of 30% from prior quarter
Adjusted EBITDA at $12.7 million, an increase of 182% from prior quarter
Adjusted EBITDA reflects increased revenues relating to the termination of Petaquilla's existing prepaid forward minerals agreements, which have required the Company to deliver a specified amount of gold and silver ounces each month below then-prevailing spot prices. As previously announced, the Company intends to offer, on a private placement basis, US$210 million in senior secured notes due in 2017. The Company intends to use a portion of the proceeds of this offering to terminate its obligations under its existing prepaid forward minerals purchase contracts. By selling gold and silver at prevailing spot prices, the Company anticipates that it will realize significant increases in its sales prices, and, as a consequence, a significant increase in its EBITDA.
During the first quarter of fiscal 2013, work on the Molejon plant expansion progressed and the Company is on schedule to commission the expansion equipment during the second quarter of fiscal 2013. The new equipment will enhance plant throughput capacity at Molejon by 1,100 tonnes per day and increase production capacity by approximately 30%. In addition to the equipment acquired for the plant expansion, a second mobile crushing system was acquired by the Company's infrastructure subsidiary, Panama Desarrollo de Infraestructuras, S.A. (PDI). Upon commissioning, this crushing system will increase aggregate production and add approximately 10,000 tons per day to the Company's crushing capacity.
Further, on September 1, 2012, a resource and reserve estimate was completed by Behre Dolbear & Company (USA) Inc. ("Behre Dolbear") for the Botija Abajo deposit, associated with the Molejon gold operations. As a result of this estimate, the Company reported additional reserves of 210,000 gold equivalent ounces at its Molejon Project.
You think all this squabbling is helping Panamas reputation? But not to worry, the Chinese care not. Just give them a swing at it.
JFF7
MMY.V
that sounds a lot better than the old deal. 45 cents sucks a little because it is below today's price but it was not long ago it was trading at that price. No warrants is also really nice.
Your right, I think the market will like it. It takes the overhanging cloud of huge dilution away. That should free up price movement and allow the share price to rise closer to the true value which is significantly higher than here.
This funding should be enough to get them started on Mengapur but unfortunately there will be more financings along the way. Hopefully at much higher share prices.
"The Company will continue to pursue financing from alternative sources to obtain additional funding for the further development of the Mengapur Project."
I suspect this is all the funding they private Tulum group could get away with while the authorities were looking over their shoulder.
JFF7
I think your right about private settling of it. All the public statements are for the most part posturing. I think both parties should feel the pressure to make a deal happen. Inmet should be the first to blink but I do not think Panama wants Inmet to delay it's project either.
The question is how long will negotiations go on? the longer, the better for PTQ, the worse for Inmet. PTQ can improve production while negotiations go on which should improve their bargaining position.
JFF7
(still out at this point though).
This should be good. PTQ on BNN today and Inmet CEO on Friday.
So much of this is public posturing on both sides. I agree that the most likely scenario is a purchase of needed assets or a joint venture. both side will be under pressure to make this happen, as this big a project must go forward.
Nice to see capitalism in action. Could you imagine how long it would take to settle this in the courts?
JFF7
MMY.to
Im in at 47 cents. Not sure why it is moving now. Maybe because of the latest news about them coming to agreement and avoiding the lawsuits back and forth. Only the lawyers win with those.
Definitely undervalued. Could easily run to 1 dollar per share (trading at 52 right now) based on their earnings.
JFF7
IF Goodman is involved, you can count on the stock price being driven up and down. His companies like to churn the stock and make money long and short once they have enough shares. MTO is a perfect candidate.
JFF7
Good suggestion, I think that is a perfect match. The Chinese are definitely long term thinkers and have the needed patience.
JFF7
MMT.v
also note the increase of oil bearing sands. 8 new sands?
JFF7
another win for Chen. My gosh that guy is good at picking winners. Noticed he also picked a Biotech winner (multi-bagger) this year as well.
(Just shaking my head in awe)
JFF7
Leave the contest as it is. There is so much investor value derived by Skillz holding this contest that the overriding priority has to be that what ever is easiest for him to manage it.
I don't currently compete in this contest but that is because of a personal character flaw.....I hate to enter contest that I don't think I have a chance of winning. KIK has won that context so often that it is obvious that he is a superior stock picker and that the space of penny stocks that he plays in is a great fertile place to generate returns.
But I don't play the penny pink sheets so even if I was half the stock picker of KIK I would not be able to match his returns. But do no misunderstand me, I follow this contest closely and examine a lot of the picks because there is so much investment talent that is drawn to this contest. I would be an idiot to pass up the opportunity to look AT what the smart investors here found to be good opportunities.
jff7
MMT.V Curlews
I am of the understanding that there is an outstanding financing that has not yet closed but that the company intends to close which is for 140 million shares at a price of 50 cents and that it includes 140 million warrants an an exercise price of 70 cents (good for 3 years).
That's a heck of a lot of dilution to commit to just at a point where they are increasing profits because the mill has just been expanded and gold prices are increasing. Do they really need the money right now? Won't it be smarter to let the share price rise in value, let the coffers grow and then go shopping for any additional needed financing?
I don't find the posters views all that out of whack with simple logic.
JFF7
MMY.V
from the history of the share price this company looks like it has always traded at an absurdly low share price.
Anyone know the reason for this? Speculation?
JFF7
where's that wascally wabbit?
JFF7
ORT.to
why is this falling so far? is this just a normal retracement from the run up or was there some bad news somewhere that I missed?
JFF7
Nice catch Bob. I was on a fishing trip on the weekend and didn't catch anything so nice. I'm jealous. Good on you.
JFF7