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Ditto
Attacks always tell you more about the attacker than the object of the attack.
Jbog has been a classy gentleman.
ij
I agree with all of that.
GLP-1's look like the class could become the biggest selling class of drug with MANY branded versions.
In that, it reminds me of the statins which became the biggest selling class of drug, with 16 branded versions.
Reminiscent of statins.
Skip Virgin is impressive.
Education and Early Career
Herbert "Skip" Virgin, also known as Herbert W. Virgin IV, has a distinguished academic background. He completed his undergraduate studies at Harvard University, where he received his AB degree. He continued his education at Harvard Medical School, earning both an MD and a PhD. His thesis work focused on host immune responses to Listeria monocytogenes
Medical and Postdoctoral Training
After his doctoral studies, Virgin completed his residency in internal medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital. He then underwent postdoctoral training in viral genetics and pathogenesis in the laboratory of Bernard Fields
Academic Positions
Virgin served as the Edward Mallinckrodt Professor and Chair of the Department of Pathology and Immunology at the Washington University School of Medicine (WUSM) in Saint Louis, USA. He held this position until 2018 and was succeeded by Richard J. Cote
Research Contributions
Throughout his career, Virgin's research has been influential in the fields of virology and immunology. His laboratory used genetic, structural, computational, and sequencing methods to explore the relationship between host genes, the virome, and disease pathogenesis. Notably, his team discovered the first murine norovirus and developed the first culture and genetic systems for a norovirus. They also identified the role of bacteria in norovirus persistence and linked changes in the enteric virome with human inflammatory bowel disease
Virgin's work has also contributed to understanding the roles of autophagy and interferon-stimulated genes during viral infection. His research has implications for a range of conditions, including chronic viral infection, lung inflammation, and autoimmune diseases
Industry Experience
In the industrial sector, Virgin served as Chief Scientific Officer at Vir Biotechnology from 2018-2022. During his tenure, he directed the discovery of the monoclonal antibody sotrovimab for the treatment of COVID-19 in at-risk individuals
Altos Labs Involvement
Most recently, Virgin was appointed as Chief Medical Officer and Head of the Altos Institute of Medicine at Altos Labs, where he was responsible for leading work on the translatability of scientific discoveries to transformative medicines. However, as of December 2023, he is no longer serving in this role
Honors and Memberships
Virgin is a member of several prestigious societies, including the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), the American Society for Clinical Investigation (ASCI), the American Association of Physicians (AAP), the American Academy of Microbiology (AAM), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). He also serves on the editorial boards of prominent journals such as Cell and Science
Publications
Virgin has authored numerous influential publications, some of which include studies on herpesvirus latency, interferon responses to murine norovirus, and the discovery of a proteinaceous cellular receptor for a norovirus
Contact Information
While specific contact details are not provided in the search results, professional profiles such as LinkedIn and institutional affiliations can be used to establish contact with Dr. Virgin
Summary
Herbert "Skip" Virgin's CV reflects a career dedicated to advancing the understanding of virology and immunology through both academic and industry roles. His contributions to the field have been recognized by his peers and have had a significant impact on medical research and treatment development.
$OCUL Paxtrava - the Glaucoma data look promising. Not without risks. We do the studies because we do not know, what we do not know.
Thus, OCUL has another potential blockbuster in the pipeline. A P-value of 0.0001 tells us there is a dramatic therapeutic effect given the tiny N. That means that the studies will not need to be large, which means less costly. Durysta was approved off 12 week studies. Suggests the studies of Paxtrava will not need to be very long either, though guessing likely over 8 months. Again the cost is sustainable even for a little underfunded company.
IMO this puts Paxtrava in third position behind doing trials for Axpaxli in wAMD (one already started under an SPA) and then in DR (diabetic retinopathy) an underserved disease.
wAMD is a huge market and DR could also be multi-billion.
It will be interesting to see how OCUL prioritizes moving the pipeline ahead. I'd prefer a partner for Paxtrava. But if one is not forth coming then I would think it a favorable omen if management decides to move it ahead in third priority.
Bottom line is I doubt that OCUL remains independent. At some point one of these three indications will attract a buyer. JMHO.
The GLP-1 agonists, originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, have shown potential in slowing the loss of motor function in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. Several studies and clinical trials have investigated the neuroprotective effects of these drugs, which can activate the GLP-1 receptor in the brain, potentially influencing neuronal metabolism, repair, and synaptic efficacy.
A recent Phase 2 trial reported that patients with early Parkinson's disease taking the GLP-1 diabetes drug lixisenatide experienced no worsening of their symptoms, in contrast to patients on placebo
5
. Although the difference in motor function between the two groups was small, the results were seen as a positive signal, suggesting that GLP-1 agonists might offer a new approach to treating this slow-moving, debilitating disorder. The trial was conducted over one year, and the question remains whether longer-term use of the drug could result in additional benefits
5
.
Previous studies have also supported the use of GLP-1 agonists in Parkinson's disease. For instance, a study published in 2017 found that Parkinson's patients treated with exenatide, another GLP-1 drug, showed improved motor features, and these improvements persisted 12 months after stopping the drug
5
. This finding suggests that GLP-1 agonists may have disease-modifying effects rather than merely providing symptomatic relief.
The neuroprotective effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists in neurodegenerative disorders such as PD are being explored due to their ability to reduce inflammation and protect neurons from dying
5
6
. The GLP-1 receptor is present in the brain, and its activation is thought to be anti-inflammatory by reducing microglial activation
7
. This could potentially prevent the steady loss of dopamine-producing neurons that characterizes Parkinson's disease.
While the evidence is promising, further research is needed to confirm the long-term effects of GLP-1 agonists on Parkinson's disease progression and to determine the best dosing strategies to control side effects
8
. Ongoing and future clinical trials will be crucial in establishing the efficacy and safety of GLP-1 receptor agonists as a treatment for Parkinson's disease.
Thank you.
It is common for small drug company stocks to sell off after a new drug launch as exuberant expectations meet the reality of a slower sales ramp. This one looks more extreme.
Hope it turns up.
Jim
RVNC is down close to 90% in the last year.
What is the bull case from here?
Kaiser is a very busy guy, but he is very interested in DR and thinks $OCUL has the potential to make it practically treatable.
ij
AI - FWIW
I have been using several AI engines. Sometimes I ask the same question of each.
Claude3 and Gemini are the worst for my queries. Claude frequently comments it is not current and thus cannot inform beyond August '23. Gemini likes to make you refine your query and then tells you all the reasons it cannot answer.
Perplexity and Pi are my favorites in that order, but it is close. ChatGPT (CoPilot uses it) is good but so far not as good as Perplexity and Pi.
I have read that MSFT CoPilot will be processing some of the requests locally and taking some of the processing off the cloud to speed things up. They are going to require computers to not only have the normal CPU's and GPU's but also a NPU capable of operating at over 40 TOS.
The time saving in getting basic information together is enormous. As others have pointed out, we cannot trust the answers blindly. I have noted some. But these tools are just getting started. For those of us who are not geniuses or topic experts, the tools are good today and in a couple of years we won't be able to spot errors if there are any.
87!
Congratulations! Quite the accomplishment.
You have 14 years on me. But so far, I am fine having out lived many of my contemporaries and attended funerals of youngsters I taught.
Still practicing law for a few clients mostly tax and General Counsel for a small rapidly growing company.
Jim
No offense with questions. My fault for not writing more clearly.
While on Mounjaro I adopted some dietary changes, eating more fruit and carrots, nuts, eggs, etc.
While vacationing I decided not to even try to maintain the dietary changes but to just enjoy eating.
Since I view all of this as a learning experience, I decided rather than start taking Mounjaro right away to run my own trial with n=1, me.
So I am trying without the aid of the drug to adopt dietary changes and see if I can lose weight. IF it works well enough, I will not need Mounjaro. I will give it a month or two. I can always restart Mounjaro if necessary.
Thanks for the suggestions. I have adopted food strategy that works for me and it is unlikely that I would do exercises other than walking. But I will take a look at Metzlers book.
GLP-1's:
My experience taking Mounjaro has left me with two questions that may impact the addressable market for the GLP-1's.
1) Can less frequent dosing produce weight loss? (5mg worked well for me at monthly vs. weekly)
2) After some term on drug, will behavioral modification be sufficient to sustain weight loss? (I am starting a test of this. After a 66 day return to normal eating habits and gaining 24 pounds, I am seeing if I can invoke the behavioral lessons learned on Mounjaro and again lose weight. Will give this at least one month, perhaps two. IF I am not losing weight I will restart Mounjaro.)
There is no question that the side effects of the GLP's are significant and will limit the market. Muscle loss is significant and may prove another confounding factor.
But bottom line for me, GLP's will be big, but not nearly as big as some analysts are projecting.
My take on the GLP1's:
On Mounjaro I lost 23% in 6 months. (Over 260 to under 200)
My guess is the SE profile would cause 1/3rd of people to drop out.
I'm a guy that has always loved to eat and cook. But I think that six months on Mounjaro has changed my eating habits. I am gaining some weight but much slower than I expected.
Because of the long half-life of Mounjaro, you need fewer doses than the administration directions call for. After some experimentation I was still losing weight with one shot per month. I suspect even that could be longer. The SE profile is bad enough that you really do not want more doses even when you seriously want to lose more.
When I return from vacation in March, I will re-evaluate my weight and set new goals.
It is not certain that I will need to take Mounjaro again. I might have the tools (behavioral modification) to lose weight without it. I will NOT hesitate to use it again if I need it. But I will be surprised if I am as dependent on it as I was the first six months.
Yes, $TGTX is up on Briumvi an RRMS CD20 B-Cell suppressor drug that is ramping up sales.
Briumvi is arguably the best-in-class CD20. The class addresses over $10B in US sales potential. By 2027 that is projected at $14B.
My WAG is that it can capture $3-5B in sales.
IF so, the stock is cheap with a MC ~$3.4B
Three weeks ago tested CV+ for the first time despite many exposures, including caring for my wife with CV.
Took Paxlovid and tested negative a week later.
Hi guys,
I have a friend looking to invest in US companies paying qualified dividends, higher yields better consistent with safety of capital.
I suggested PFE now at over 6.3% Y.
Suggestions?
TIA
Jim
With Zepbound pricing lower than Mounjaro, what would keep MD's from prescribing Zepbound?
Perhaps, the far larger market or competitive positioning will offset the lost marginal revenue.
On balance, I agree with you that the news on Zepbound is positive.
Recently spoke to an MD who said Zepbound is not available and likely will not be for a month or two.
Mounjaro/Zepbound
I started Mounjaro 5mg for weight loss over 16 weeks ago.
I quickly realized that satiation lasted far beyond the weekly dosing and allowed weight loss with less of the bad side effects.
I am now dosing every 4 weeks and losing weight, albeit more slowly, which is to be expected.
Very interesting note on the use of DHA.
Aspirin: I started 325mg daily (taken at bedtime) in my mid 40's. Call it 28 years ago.
No sign of atherosclerosis despite father with serious problem. (I credit aspirin)
X-rays show no sign of arthritis. (May be unrelated to aspirin.)
One of my friends has had Long Covid for over 2.5 years. It was essentially debilitating, and he could no longer work.
But slowly over time he has gotten better. One of the things he credits is aspirin. Perhaps the anti-inflammatory properties helped.
One of the lingering symptoms was brain fog. A few weeks ago, he tried nicotine gum and after a few days the brain fog lifted and has not returned.
Seems this could be related to the serotonin observations since acute nicotine exposure will increase serotonin levels. Unfortunately, chronic exposure can have the opposite effect.
Will be interesting to see if it loses the effect with chronic nicotine use. I have encouraged him to try and minimize the dose provided he is getting the relief.
Just a lawyer practicing medicine on the side.
One question that study raises is whether use of SSRI's might treat Long Covid in the segment where reduced serotonin is a MoA for the disease.
Seems a reasonable thing to try.
But I am NOT medically trained.
Thanks Mufaso,
$PFE - down 3% premarket to up 5.5% in early trading.
Nice reversal, might have put in the bottom.
Comment on Shorting:
IMO shorting should be made illegal. Markets no longer need to have borrow and short.
Simply allow for zero strike calls with set duration and even a perpetual option.
That way anyone that wants to be long or short synthetically can do it without directly impacting the trading value of stocks. And any premiums are set between willing buyers and sellers (writers).
JMO
Jim
I understand the point. I used to make the same argument.
Tax efficiency is a first order principle. You only keep the after tax results.
And I agree that IF the question is comparing trading (without long term investments), with investing for the long term (and not trading) the proposition is true.
BUT this is NOT an "either or" problem.
It is easy to have LTBH positions and day trade from the account. The gains (or losses) are produced with essentially NO additional capital and it does not take big moves to make money trading - it does take time and some skill.
For those who can day trade profitably it is an incremental return on the invested capital. YES, it carries a higher tax rate, but it still adds to overall returns and the incremental after tax profits can be added to investment in LTBH assets.
I'm not against using DCF to value companies. As I said, I taught it. I have also used the tool for over 50 years. I have been investing for close to 60 years so I am not purely an academic.
I am against believing that modeled results will hold up for long. Too many things can and do change.
A pillar of value investing is investing in companies with predictable positive growing cash flows that you can discount to determine value. Lots of what we thought predictable and stable have proven not to be. Huge companies are gone (Eastman Kodak) or a shadow of their glory days (GE, ATT) - the widows and orphans have not fared well in them.
A couple of years ago the Treasury was issuing 30 year bonds at 1.25%. Models that used that rate to determine VALUE, produced wildly erroneous results. Despite that, the relative value of the choices may still be good, but the models predicted value is not. Utilities and banks looked golden a couple of years ago at those rates. They have not done so well.
A year ago, staples looked safe at prevailing rates and consumption levels. Now the consumption looks weak taking earnings and growth rates down and food stocks are being questioned as the GLP-1 drugs ramp changing eating patterns. Models of value that looked appealing last year are sad today.
I used to teach this in Accounting at St. Louis University.
Believing the results of models are more than a decision making tool is error bordering on delusional.
Eg. AGW has models that tell us the future, but the models won't back test. When a model has dozens or even hundreds of independent variables, they will never produce reliable long term predictions. How do you ever understand how each variable impacts the others, or the negative or positive feedback loops?
You can believe your models if you want to.
Point is simple.
The benefit conferred by using DCF analysis is the ability to rank investments and the rate selected will have little or nothing to do with the which investment is predicted to be the best.
WSJ shows the Bank Prime rate at 8.5%
So, we should be using mortgage rates as an input in valuing equities?
I did not comment on what to use to do DCF valuations. I just gave a fact that illustrates the comment that interest rates were moving up to 7% was by one metric already exceeded.
IMO the proper DCF rate is not as critical as using the same rate consistently for given time horizons.
IF you do that you can easily select the investment which will produce the highest expected return.
30 year fixed rate mortgages (WSJ) this week hit:
8.07% Conventional
8.14% Jumbo
$RVNC - see the risk-reward on the stock as increasingly attractive @ BARC
ANALYSTS COMMENTS:
? Risk reward attractive with RVNC ending 17% down (recovering from a 33% dip), despite a strong KOL attestation of DAXXIFY's Superiority.
? In the L6M, BARC's Surveys & Expert calls told US of a need for lower price.
? Today, mgmt shelved its premium pricing in favor of greater LT Adoption
B) is the argument for irreparable harm, one of the predicates for injunctive relief.
But getting a judge to see that, is a low probability.
Any guess as to how long before we have neutralization assays against this new variant?
GLP-1's
I know several people that started Mounjaro and one Wegovia.
Two of those who started Mounjaro dropped it. One for stomach pain which she says has continued despite being off for three weeks. She is still losing weight. The other was vomiting and dry heaving to the point he did not want to continue.
The guy on Wegovia complains of loss of energy after the shot for a couple of days but is staying the course.
I started Mounjaro over three weeks ago and it is tolerable. Weight loss is consistent with my expectations and plan. I have posted details on X if anyone is interested. The one unexpected side effect is sleep disturbance that seems to run several days after each shot. One favorable effect is that eating satiation is lasting far longer than the 7 days. Guessing it will last two weeks between shots. I'm acting as guinea pig with weight loss as the target, NOT A1C.
PFE oral weight loss drug
https://twitter.com/Beeken_health/status/1660663857285824512?s=20