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Re: 10nisman post# 249231

Saturday, 10/07/2023 4:23:36 PM

Saturday, October 07, 2023 4:23:36 PM

Post# of 252412
I used to teach this in Accounting at St. Louis University.

Believing the results of models are more than a decision making tool is error bordering on delusional.

Eg. AGW has models that tell us the future, but the models won't back test. When a model has dozens or even hundreds of independent variables, they will never produce reliable long term predictions. How do you ever understand how each variable impacts the others, or the negative or positive feedback loops?

You can believe your models if you want to.

It is astonishing what foolish things one can temporarily believe if one thinks too long alone ... where it is often impossible to bring one's ideas to a conclusive test either formal or experimental. J.M. Keynes

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