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No way to spin it. Extremely brutal out there. Peter deciding to file the shelf the Friday before a shortened Thanksgiving week and wrecking the stock is quite the bold move. I'm sure on the next CC he will thank investors and boast the great funding runway thru 2023or 20xx that CEO's love to repeat and carries absolutely no weight
Certainly the only happy stakeholders are the two Canadian execs who dumped majorly in 30's after the Bloomberg piece where no sources needed confirmed.
Great work Pete! Impressive strategies all around. When you can look at the year and see the entire growth of the stock collapse and erase may the bonuses be heavy my friend. We know this country club memberships in Silver Spring can be steep. LOL
come on Caforio. call Greenleaf. close the deal already and give your stakeholders a new and FDA approved asset in the portfolio. :)
FDA tells BMY Mavacamten PDUFA will be delayed three months deeper into 2022 as more time is needed. Caforio. just buy Aurinia. you can do it. FDA approved asset ready for your large sales force.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/bms-heart-drug-delayed-at-fda-as-risk-mitigation-program-worked-out
one thing is for sure BMY has a shit ton of cash flow and the forecasts aren't going anywhere for them. and money is still cheap so a company with that kind of cash flow stats (50B range) has a buffet of options for low risk financing. remind that when J&J acquired Momenta for 6.5B which closed just over a year ago, I laughed when I read that their cash war chest wasn't even touched as the entire deal was completed with low risk loans. These big Pharma companies, BMY...all of them.....they have plenty of options and war chests. any BP CEO that doesn't prioritize M&A in the near future is gonna pay for that missed opportunity...Caforio certainly didn't waste any time yesterday to spread the word that small to medium bio bolt-ons were on the top of his list for strategy
I think I need to revise my estimate of what Pharma would pay for AUPH considering the margins that VOC has and the 2037 patent timeline peak sales potential Ive been low balling the valuation While I don't see AUPH selling for 13-15B (I'd take it) Im intrigued about BMY's 13B deal for Myocardia. Mavacamten wasn't even approved at the time of the merger and seems to have a similar sales ramp as Lupkynis (peak 1-2B annual sales) under its protected patents. Mycocardia also had other earlier stage assets as well (danicamtiv) perhaps helping the deal get that high. But still one can't rule out a 10B takeout for aurinia tho I have typically concluded that was also on the unlikely side so $45-60 a share from $35-42 range
haha. if I upset some then hopefully it will thicken their skin. Don't get me wrong I will be thrilled with an over $50 per share takeout. I just don't see that being the likely scenario. Especially after Bloomberg published this BMY interest sending the price way higher to ATH's how much of that will be baked in, imagine if news never leaked and a $22 stock was taken out at $45. that's a nicer premium than $45 from current levels. Most of these old timers, like myself, starting buying shares low $3's so everyone should be thrilled either way. JMHO
ahhh the classic suspense reminds me to those ariad days. I love the poster's comments about missing 2da's intense manifesto posts. I remember those Aurinia knows what it owns and after Aurora-2 updates the data don't lie. Just like Tim Clackson reporting the ph3 Brigatinib NSCLC late 2016...after that we all knew what Ariad owned. In fact, now Brig is also FDA approved for First Line therapy since it was initially FDA approved after the Takeda deal later in 2017. The suitor knows it can extract more value out of purchasing a young high quality asset
Since AUPH knows the potential with Lupkynis I do believe the deal will happen. but not immediately. I recall Harvey Berger saying he couldn't believe it took as long as it did for Denner to seal the deal. Thats M&A for ya...I think these deals take longer than planned most of the time, especially when young, high quality drugs like Lupkynis are potentially up for sale
I think this company gets sold for $35-47 a share with potential CVRs.
Folks concerned that AUPH PR'd their attendance to Jefferies Conf Nov 18th should also reflect back to good ole ARIAD They too PR'd their attendance to JP Morgan Health Care Conf, way more prestigious than a corporate update at Jefferies etc. that PR was issued in December 2016. Per SEC filings of the ARIA buyout, offers were rejected and re-offered to Paris P around 12/25/16 and final $24/share accepted. Attendance to JP Morgan and presentation was still in tact. It wasn't until Jan 9 2017 that we woke up to finding out about this deal being official!. Immediately after theARIA presentation at JP Morgan was canceled ! My point is I don't look at any PR's stating AUPH attending a conference impacts the flow of any deals. If AUPH is sold tomorrow. we will know
I think this is real weshouldsee PR Monday
nice analysis. Yeah most are Trial in progress updates. I think the next big data drop comes in early 2022. Its been a quiet year for REPL outside of the Investor Day event
Looking forward to seeing these updates from SITC. Did MGMT slip up last year and release the abstract content with initial PR of SITC abstract titles? The PR on oct14 2020 included the abstract content and SITC embargo for abstract content unlocks right before the actual conference This year I think the abstract embargo lifts Nov 9 2021.
Horizon Therapeutics plc (Nasdaq: HZNP) and Viela Bio, Inc. (Nasdaq: VIE) today announced the companies have entered into a definitive agreement under which Horizon will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Viela Bio, Inc. common stock for $53.00 per share in cash, which represents a fully diluted equity value of approximately $3.05 billion, or approximately $2.67 billion net of Viela's cash and cash equivalents
https://ir.horizontherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/horizon-therapeutics-plc-acquire-viela-bio-inc-significantly
We knew Horizon raised nearly a billion in $ for M&A. now we know why.
ImmunityBio and NantKwest to Merge, Creating a Leading Immunotherapy and Cell Therapy Company
The transaction is structured as a tax-free 100% stock-for-stock merger, with ImmunityBio to reverse merge with NantKwest. Under the terms of the agreement, ImmunityBio shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.8190 shares of NantKwest for each share of ImmunityBio owned. Upon completion of the transaction, on a fully diluted basis, ImmunityBio shareholders will own approximately 72% of the combined company and NantKwest shareholders will own approximately 28% of the combined company, on a fully diluted basis.
https://ir.nantkwest.com/news-releases/news-release-details/immunitybio-and-nantkwest-merge-creating-leading-immunotherapy?field_nir_news_date_value[min]=
Lilly Announces Agreement to Acquire Prevail Therapeutics
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-announces-agreement-acquire-prevail-therapeutics
I like the logic and will buy you a drink if this gets sold my friend. While I don't "own this to be bought," I see that playing out in the logic, especially with PG being hired...I disagreed with the timing and price of our last offering, but I didn't disagree with PG's decision to secure more funds for commercialization and dont doubt for a second his ability to navigate the business pathways and believe his skill set is deal making.
I still owe Vidpok a drink in Dutchcess Co NY from our ARIA days. have a good night
yeah you are right its either 2031 0r 2032
Ive never wanted to be a corporate patent attorney more than right now trying to negotiate the waters of timeframes and valuations looking ahead 24 quarters. PG did comment at one of the recent firesides of institutional holders of AUPH consulting with patent attorneys on the potential outcome scenarios for VOC with respect to LN and he sounded favorable about those discussions. I imagine dealing with patent protections and disputes and extensions etc. is pretty standard these days for most bios and companies require the talent to handle this the same way they require talent for molecule discovery/development.
I think we chatted on ST today as well. Im curious what you think the end game is for Aurinia being your medical background you don't seem too bullish on added indications for VOC given the patent protection timeframes (come on LN IP2037!)...Do you think the company diversifies the pipeline with new molecules in the inflammation/boutique space? I have been saying for awhile how fitting it is that Tim Walbert is on the Board (maybe a bit too fitting IMHO) I still see this as a bolt-on play for a potential endgame scenario (under 10M takeout by the big boys). However if we are bought we are all lucky as hell. that's my motto with any holding of mine that gets bought, its never guaranteed only a logical path. I do find it intriguing that, to date, PG hasn't announced one deal/partner regardless of what he has communicated at conferences and calls
Could this be another excellent therapeutic position for voclosporin?
Everolimus is an mTOR kinase inhibitor that inhibits antigenic and interleukin (IL-2 and IL-15) stimulated activation and proliferation of T and B lymphocytes. It is indicated for prophylaxis of allograft rejection in adult liver transplant recipients in combination with reduced doses of tacrolimus and with corticosteroids.
Just read a bunch of studies that show how mTOR kinase inhibitors successfully spare or eliminate tacro/steroid dosing in transplant recipients. I wonder if Everolimus combo with low dose voclosporin without steroids would be an option for transplant recipients.
This is a link to similar application for cardiac transplants
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25041227/
Vid and Jess- Great work here lots of potential to add into the mix here with the inflammation focuses of late. Jess- great call on the Covid linkage. I suppose a scientist dealing with CNI's already had some evidence of the invitro antiviral agent implications. Again the potency of Voclosporin at 8 times smaller the dose is amazing for safety, tolerability and toxicity translations down the road. Im adjusting my price targets and I'm sure the analysts are as well. Alethia (Cantor Fitz) was interviewed on CNBC yesterday about vaccine stocks and the sector. She was the fireside moderator for AUPH's recent chat.
I didn’t expect this PR and the potential here is huge. Anti-inflammatory and now indicating anti-viral. The combos and synergies here are immense if any of this pans out useful. Voclosporin cocktails ? What we know per PR Voclosporin inhibited covid at mega low levels.
“Calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs), like voclosporin, have been shown in prior in vitro studies to inhibit viral replication. The team at the LUMC demonstrated that voclosporin inhibited viral replication of SARS-CoV-2 at an 8-fold lower concentration than tacrolimus in vitro, while maintaining cell viability of infected cells. In contrast to voclosporin, tacrolimus did not show antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro at clinically relevant concentrations. “
The VocoVid Study. Dedicated to Vidpok. Lmao. Love it
$2? thanks for Chiming in Rachel McMinn
yeah the avg daily volume is probably around a little over a million. this is a monster volume rate so far today, so far at 5M in 60 min of trading already exceeds every single daily volume since ph3 data days volume which will be hard to beat over 40M shares that day
well they have nearly 500 m cash on hand now, I dont think the market likes this second offering at the same price of 15. kind of a bad look for Peter. you want to offer again at higher share prices Pete. Lets have the next round at 25-30 folks. I get it...launch isn't cheap and no one is subsidizing these bios. its on them to fund. But market doesn't like this one so far. We are going to see if Peter is a hero or a zero very soon Good luck to all
Granted Priority Review, FDA doesn't see need for ADCOM, Voclosporin is still an unencumbered asset, PDUFA JAN22. This is the optimal feedback...remember Ariad was acquired with a shining candidate in Brigatinib...post ph3 (stellar data) and pre FDA approval. Takeda owned it for at least a couple months prior to Alunbrig winning FDA approval. Aurinia is in a similar scenario now IMHO.
Good luck to all of us longs. We await next friday FDA NDA decision. perhaps we will hear something on Monday morning. If you have owned AUPH from back in the Vid era you know what you hold. Aurora data was very promising so I'm confident in the FDA accepting the NDA BTW we need Trading Cyclist to log back in...also Vid. now is the time folks!
The Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson announced today its decision to discontinue the Phase 3 LOTUS study of STELARA® (ustekinumab) in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) due to lack of efficacy in SLE.
https://www.jnj.com/janssen-announces-discontinuation-of-phase-3-lotus-study-evaluating-ustekinumab-in-systemic-lupus-erythematosus
Jesspro- what's your buyout price range for aurinia if it gets acquired?
First off, KZR's programs aren't entirely aligned with LN, some of it is but I wouldn't say AUPH and KZR are comparing apples to apples, but I understand that in some form this is competition down the road. I worry more about the current phase 3 trials of LN products like Roche's Obinutuzmab which should be starting Phase 3 soon
But down the road. KZR is far away. think about AUPH in phase 1 was that 2015? now we are past phase 3 but still unapproved with commercialization hurdle...This is like comparing Michael Jordan to King James in the same court. Jordan being a promising rookie in the NBA after watching him impress at UNC...Lebron was he even in kindergarten at that point?
IMHO Im not too worried about any competition right now...Aurora data was as solid as we needed for a readout. Wishing the approval process luck
AUPH files for a 500M shelf of mixed securities (replacing old expired shelf)
https://ir.auriniapharma.com/all-sec-filings#document-958-0001193125-20-155700
looking to be a consolidation down to one HQ? Seems like it if they aren't renewing any Canadian leases. Interesting.. they will have expansion up to 4x in Rockville MD according to the agreement
"Aurinia’s Rockville site at 77 Upper Rock Circle will initially occupy 30,000 square feet, with potential expansions to 120,000 square feet. The company plans to hire up to 100 employees in the first year and up to 500 employees as the company expands its operations"
https://rockvilleredi.org/aurinia-pharmaceuticals/
anyone else see in AUPH's annual report that they didn't renew their leases for Canadian locations (Victoria ends 12/20) Edmonton ends (9/20)
rest in peace HotRodder
Are we ready for ARIA 2.0? kidding. but this time reminds me of how exciting it was post brigatinib phase 3 readout...the possiblities seemed endless.. BTW on 5/22/20 Brigatinib was approved for Frontline NSCLC by the FDA. pretty impressive.
So, does anyone find it rather intriguing that the newest BOD selection, Horizon CEO Walbert also skippers a rare disease/rheumatic company? Lupus fits that portfolio perfectly. Also Horizon's newest FDA drug is a Thyroid Eye Medication that is absolutely killing it sales wise out of the gates. tripled the expectations for first quarter of its market life. One of the common medications needed to treat Thyroid Eye Disease happens to be Chronic Dry Eye treatments as patients typically have Bulging eye and blinking complications.
Now that Walbert can access AUPH file cabinets at what point does he click and say. Holy Crap this company with unencumbered assets and patent protections in Horizon's neck of the woods with a team that can already achieve sales ramps in rheumatic disease... Just gets me thinking about that
Alexion to Acquire Portola
– Expands and diversifies Alexion’s hematology, neurology and critical care commercial portfolio with transformative Factor Xa inhibitor reversal agent –
– Conference call and webcast scheduled for today, May 5, at 8:00 a.m. ET –
https://investors.portola.com/2020-05-05-Alexion-to-Acquire-Portola
Oragenics Acquires Noachis Terra Inc., To Develop Its TerraCoV2 NIH-Generated SARS-CoV-2 (COVID 19) Vaccine Candidate Utilizing “Spike Protein”
As a result of the acquisition, the Company (i) paid an aggregate of $1,925,000 in cash, a portion of which was applied to retire outstanding obligations of Noachis Terra with the balance being paid to Mr. Hernandez, (ii) issued 9,200,000 shares of common stock of the Company and warrants to purchase 9,200,000 shares of common stock of the Company, carrying an exercise price of $1.25 per share and a five-year term,
https://ir.oragenics.com/press-releases/detail/104/oragenics-acquires-noachis-terra-inc-to-develop-its
Acquisition of Stemline establishes Menarini’s presence in the U.S. biopharmaceutical oncology market
Menarini will support further development of Stemline’s ELZONRIS® and enable global expansion by leveraging its commercial infrastructure in Europe and other ex-U.S. geographies
Total potential consideration of $12.50 per share comprising $11.50 cash and $1.00Contingent Value Right (CVR)
https://ir.stemline.com/news-releases/news-release-details/menarini-group-acquire-stemline-therapeutics-transaction-valued
This is nearly 90% below NTGN IPO price 18 months back
https://ir.neontherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-acquire-neon-strengthen-global-leadership-position-t
The biggest update out of JPM so far this year is that Brad Loncar lost his iPad (again) and it was returned to him by an honest person. First iPad lost in China- returned, now San Fran. Humanity is good!
MorphoSys and Incyte Sign Global Collaboration and License Agreement for Tafasitamab
MorphoSys and Incyte to co-commercialize tafasitamab in the U.S.
- Incyte has exclusive commercialization rights outside of the U.S.
- MorphoSys and Incyte to host joint conference call on January 13, 2020 at 7:00am PST / 4:00pm CET
https://www.morphosys.com/media-investors/media-center/morphosys-and-incyte-sign-global-collaboration-and-license-agreement