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THx oddlot, missed that. I have a very weak OBV on IWM here on 10 day chart as a for instance (and your post was a timely & good reminder to take a more thorough look at that in more detail).
ziko,
I think that is a good observation.
Right now underlying technicals (e.g., MACD, Stochs, ADX)show that the sentiment of traders right now is that they will continue to buy these support points.
Although, I am seeing now some turning down in those measures.
However, weekly, monthly charts on technicals, moving avgs (9/10 ema) etc show continued strength so it looks like until the "back is broken" so to speak of this buy on the pull back mentality then we will continue to trade sideways to up.
Once we see a really good hard pull back with follow through then we will have a good signal to short (other than the more localized scalps I'm doing).
Technicals so far indicate that we are still going higher (but likely will trade a bit sideways to down here). Once we see a big break of the underling technicals I will only short these more modest timeframes to make a few bucks here and there... Mike
Watching the SPY here. Its challenging the previous 3 day lows. My take is that this is the "modest pull back" we are looking for. Most of time this has been short-lived (as a pullback). On IWM looking to see 81 to 81.15 perhaps a tad higher to be tested and then another rebounds.
Bets off of course if vol at those levels acclerates.
Otherwise, saw a response or two to my posts last night...much thx will try to respond a bit later.
Oh, Currently have a small position in TZA thta will take profits on at end of day or perhaps tomorrow. Mike
Oh man of course I was just kidding on the too old stuff... I'm a bit in between I think on this board (turning 55 soon). Regardless, I didn't think I would get a comment on this post regarding Daryl Hall --- so getting a really good chuckle out of the whole thing.
Will definitely look up the link you posted. Getting tired and wife getting tired of me being on PC at this point anyway. Otherwise, one of my favorite old songs is "Further on down the Road" by Eric C... and perhaps I might add mad dogs and englishmen (delta lady, cry me a river, etc)
Nighty Nite. Mike
Not sure I get the 'stop thinking so much' comment.
I do think. Then I look at the analysis and react accordingly.
Which 'I think" must of us are doing.
So not quite sure of your point here. Can you be a bit more specific on my "over thinking" here?
Thx, Mike
kiy
I really appreciate the return thoughts/ So even though I'm pushing the idea to buy the pull back here. I really getting increasingly reticent about the idea. I looked for instance at how RTH &XRT reacted today. I'm thinking poor overall. But I didn't look at late day action. Yes like many like BIG I look at the action in CAT, RIO, FCX etc but if retail doing well then that says we go higher I think. But intraday I did not like the action I was seeing (but have not checked my charts during last 2 hours of day). At any rate, I tend to side with your thinking here despite my caveat that if you are going short then do it quickly, take profits when you have them etc. So agree on what you are saying and we should see an extended down move soon, but overall technicals suggest that the downed will be limited (so far) say 1350 on a minimal basis and say 125-60 on a maximum basis. If we see a huge deterioration of underlying technicals then 'katy bar the door' and we short at will. So far any of this technical detrioration we have seen in short and mid term has pointed to "buy the pull backs". At some point we will a technical deterioration that suggests we get more serious on shorting but right now I'm not seeing it as yet. Mike
You know (.....of course you don't know what I'm going to say)..... but many of us grew up in same timeframe with Emerson Lake Palmer, ASIA, YES, (oh and prior to that....King Crimson I 'm thinking...).
I Love a lot of that music even though at times some of it has dropped off my list at times to a new generation of good music too. But still love a lot of these old tunes.
My favorite though of the instrumentals is "Green Onions" by Booker T and a really good rendition of it is available at Daryl Hall's website (episode 44). Here is link:
http://www.livefromdarylshouse.com/currentep.html?ep_id=59
By the way, you have to double click on the song that is about the 5th item down on the lower right hand side of the episode that shows up.
Otherwise you have to listen to whole show -- which ain't bad either if you like the particular artist in question.
At any rate, many of us that thought we were cool (and we still are of course.....)...
Well, many us didn't quite like this Daryl Hall guy (from 'Hall and Oates' fame since they did stuff closer to disco).
However, I must say that this guy has remade himself to a large degree over the years and he gets a lot of this really good musicians to show up and play at his house...So would suggest that any of you old foggies that like good old time rock roll look up this particular version of Green Onions on Daryl Halls website.
kiy
much thx.
I've been trying to study get acquainted your comments, zikos, etc. Will try to update amy thinking as we go along
Overall, my take is that unless we can see a real flight to safety (that really sells off SPX 10 or so points for a couple of days and Dow a 100 points or so for a couple of days...) then we still are in a short term scalp of the move up via TZA and then quickly reverse and go long again.
The underlying technicals as I read them (of course) are saying that there is persistent buying pressure on any of these pull backs. We should see though a more substantial pull back here in the next half week (chart patterns here indicate we are close to at least a modest pull back and technicals are trying to trend down a tad...).
But until we get a sustained sell off then we all have to keep our hair trigger off on the short trade and just trade it selectively on short scalps to downside.
Now for my part...I'm tending to be increasingly more reticent to go long here for any period and to only trust the pull backs on the indices for only a nominal short side for a scalp (then turn around again and go long).
But that has mixed results (but I have made some money on being long TVIX and TNA). This wasn't necessarily a brilliant move on my part (but it worked over weekend -- when I don't normally carry over 3x shorts/longs).
At any rate, we are coasting from technical basis to new highs, we can go increasingly short here, but have to be very careful and take profits quickly. We will get a very good short here soon, but quite frankly all of these "really good shorts" are very limited in duration which is much like what we saw in 2008 and a few years before (but of course to the reverse).
So my overall take is that we really aren't overbought here by as much as most think...and we are seeing persistent buying action that is stupefying the shorts (and I must admit I tend to be one of the folks that don't believe this move up but of course cover my bets..).
So even though I have a good intellectual take on this situation in the markets (or at least I think I do). I think frequently here of late I'm being duped into at times being overly short in a market that is obviously trending higher despite what any of think to the contrary... Hope that explains some of my thoughts and like i said will look to update my thinking.
Again, I much appreciate what a lot of you are providing of late. I just need to catch up to some degree on some of the technical techniques you guys are using. Mike
Oh...this actually is the post that sparked my thought I should say something... The US dollar to me looks like its putting in a downward bullish wedge type formation over past couple of days. This 79-79.20 area looks particularly important in the very short term. A bust up here into the $80 area or so could lead to a nice scalp to downside. But thinking this may be short lived unless we see big negative volume and triple digit decline son DOW.
Otherwise, I have tended to think that we will get into the 77.50-90 range at some point. Overall, the dollar looks like crap and can't really overtake to 9/10 ema on several time frames (but it looks to me close to doing so if for only a short period of time where it will likely fail again (and allow the overall markets to move higher in mid term)).
Tough call here, but without much headline risk here it looks like Dollar will temporarily continue to weaken & mkts strengthen somewhat (but in very short term it looks like the US dollar is close to gaining some strength and helping markets to slide).
Thinking that is a day or two off or so. But have seen some firming in .dxy and .vix.tvix, etc that indicates that we are basing a bit for at least a decent short scalp to upside.
That said unless there is a nasty pull back on the indices that last for 48 hours then looking to take profits quickly on any short term slide. Mike
Nice kiy. Agree. Sorry most of the many new and I really must say excellent folks that have recently come to the board don't know me.
For those that don't know me, I tend to be a "blended" technical/fundamental" guy and BT has been trying over time to get me to have more prowess in the technical area (and he will eventually succeed I think cause that is where my predilection is anyway and BT is very persistent of course..)
All that said: A couple of observations (mostly technical I think):
I liked the action today in vix & .dxy (US Dollar) but we could hit more extreme values here before bouncing. As a for instance, the dollar is really weak here overall and just can't get much mojo but it looks to be basing here and ready for at least a blip up.
I'm not convinced yet that we are are on a top of a major correction so please take that into account. I think, for instance that we are seeing the typical "wall of worry" climb in the markets. Look for instance at he many DOW stocks that have been treading water since the incredible sell off in the late 1990s/2000 area.
Overall when looking at technicals and fundamentals. it points to me that we see a continued but almost worm like move up.
The caveats are that we do still have problems to deal with in euroland (and late March may not be pretty here in terms of Greece); and we have Portugal and others. The euro folks so far have proven "it appears" that they are willing to backstop this (and if you don't know I think much of this willingness is due to the idea that over the past 200 years the euro folks are tired of extremist countries in their midst and so they have a vested interest in making this euro concept work.
Okay all that said... It seems to me we are ripe for a pull back here soon - say 1370-75 or perhaps 1420 or so on S&P and say 13,100-200 on dow (but I could see stretch on this). On the IWM looking at these 83 and particularly at 85 levels as resistance for that bigger pullback. Recalling some of this from memory so I hope I got this right.
Overall, underlying technical (Stochs, MACD, ADX, etc) indicating some weakness, but not enough as yet to lead to a big sell off. But close I think to a nice short here soon (and thinking that will be here in next few days or thereabouts. By and large the trend is still up and I'm still respecting that even though I'm tending to get increasingly short as we go higher (but with a good hedge of course). Which so far has worked to keep me out of trouble.
Good luck and I think I need more time to study kit, ziko, ha ha etc inputs and technical charting to feel comfortable to comment. Oh one last thing, this is usually the time of year to go long XLE (ERX short term), and OIH (DIG if 2x leveraged). So buying pull backs on Oil and related stocks/sectors is likely a winner. Next in line I'm thinking are the miners (e.g GDX. GDXJ, NUGT, etc).
Ohhh...man did I miss that. You kill me...
What did they used to say on Saturday night live or some similar comedy show (...we are not worthy...)
Cripes I've tried thrree times already to post a message and all I getis an insulting message saying I'm being booted off. What a bunch of crap....so in aslightly terse mood & had to sign in under a slightly diff another name
At any rate, vix under 28 is really telling us the prospective direction of the market (its up). VIX had a hard time holding above the 10 day lows and finished at or below those I believe.
At any rate, unless the vix can get traction here, its saying that the move today was corrective and may have been skittish...but that there is declining fear at the moment. That generally is supportive ofa move higher
That said, on 3x witching week if we see any further technical breakdown (that doesn't quickly recover), then that would spell trouble and indicate that we have seen as much of the year end rally as we can expect.
I'm thinking we pop some here (cause his activity is what we would normally expect as we get into mid week on options ex...) but hedging my bets -- so thinking we go higher by a 60-40 or 70-30 probability. So not overly confident, but so far vix telling me that shorts will have a more difficult time than longs unless we see a sharp sell off soon....
Teacake (cc: BT)
Sorry I've been off for so long... Would like to be added to BTs email (my address is mikeatmac@gmail.com)
Haven't been around cause had a few medical issues (recent heart catheterization, etc). Turns out I'm very, very healthy artery-wise except I do have a 50% blockage in one artery they call the "widow maker" (cause it usually goes undetected until too late...). It sucks getting old....but still feel lucky to have the good health/fitness that I have despite some of these issues. At any rate, have a lot of empathy for BT and many of us old salts....
At any rate, Im seeing underlying technicals that suggest we bounce here into 1330 or 1345 soon (but that we have a volatile week ahead -- that is, Fed days like tomorrow/wed normally provide a bounce - but wednesday's as I remember on 3x witching can be very volatile - so I'm buying the pullbacks (at significant to substantial support areas like today).
So bottom line I don't see 81.80 as a target here soon on the dollar (but its close to a target I have mid to longer term).
In shorter term, 81.80 not totally out of the question as we get into the last week of Dec (but thinking based on current analysis that it will be more into the new year).
Good luck BT and thanks as always for your help and support over the past few to several years. Mike
I don't see much support as yet for Obama's jobs programs. As a marker here many of us somewhat libertarian folks supported Obama on his stimulus programs (as an experiment on Keynesian economics even though we were skeptical), but in the final analysis it appeared that he let the non-blue dog democrats rule (i.e., Reid & Pelosi so in the last election they managed to lose the more conservative blue dog democrats due to their obstinence)..... So there was really no good test of Keynesian economics...which to me is unfortunate 'cause I would like to see really good tests of each philosophy/approach and then a good discussion on the pros/cons of it.
So many don't trust him any more. I hate to say it because I always tried to see the best in Bush Jr (which was severely misguided) and also in O'bama (which seems misguided but not as bad Bush since he adhered to no known GOP thinking on anything..). So O'bama in some respects seems better...but still not my cup of tea since he really never pursued his philosophy's to their their logical outcome (he just let Reid/Pelosi dictate the final result (which to me was a really bad idea). .
Pardon my misspeliings here, but thought this post interesting to respond to despite how tired I am at the time. Mike
sdpro--totally right on I think. From a fundamental standpoint I don't see where the ECB has any leverage here to realistically lower rates. Also, this looks a lot like short covering in front of that meeting, and key to me is to see if 1150 can be overtaken an then held... then we could see a revisit of 1210-1220.
Otherwise I'm arguing with myself on this call....my worse half ('da bear') says a 60% chance or more that we close below 1100 on Friday...
But its hard to make that case right now until we see the ADP report tomorrow, claims on Thurs, and the Monthly Jobs report on Fri...and how the market reacts.
Hence the 'good Mike' versus 'bad Mike' battle here. So I'm thinking we see a 1-2 day rally, a sharp intraday selloff & then we need to see if that selloff finds support. Of course the selloff may not occur.
Its just my sense here that this just doesn't quite look like its over to the downside (and rallies tend to be shorter lived as we get into the middle innings or so of a bearish trend). So I intend to only stay long thru tomorrow for a swing unless I see convincing targets taken out to upside. Mike
Oops sorry...I think I got that wrong - highhertel...thanks much, very appreciated
Thanks RCKS for the nice off topic input (very helpful), I'm looking at refinancing. We both have an 800 plus credit score, but not sure we have 20% in this house as of yet... Will have to look at. Mike
Comments on the Miners (e.g., RIO, FCX, GOLD, GG, etc)
FYI. I think most folks won't be interested in this but I provided a fair amount of background and likely support targets so thought it might be of value to some on this board.
The below is a message I sent on TTF board regarding the Mining Stocks (when they bottom it likely will signal that the rest of the market will turn then or soon thereafter). I also use SMH for this type of "heads up" as well as the typical: AAPL, CAT, IBM, INTC, VIX, TNX/TLT, GS, JPM.... Mike
"Tom
Geez these miner stocks are beat to death. Some extended thoughts/comments below----
Theses miners almost all have negative 'embedded stochastics' (e.g., 3 days or more below 20); Alternatively if above 80 and the stochastics are embedded for 3 days then this is normally positive for a continued move up over the short to mid term).
So.....If negative like this...it generally means that there is more pain to come first. And, a big volume thrust is required to turn the tide. Otherwise, my experience is that stocks in this situation will normally trade sideways to down (with an inevitable downward drift until more substantial support is tested and rejected). Almost all the miners seem poised to rebound only modestly here and tread further down in the short term to perhaps mid term (the mid to longer term is harder to get a handle on). A market turn may correct all of this.
Regardless, GOLD (Randgold) has been a leader and looks to be turning to upside (stochastics are near 30). So all these could in fact turn soon, especially if GOLD can come back and test 20 (on stochastics) and bounce up to and over 50 (I would think we would see a modest pull back there).
At any rate, I'm using GOLD here as a tentative leading indicator. GG & ABX may be worth a watch to see if they turn (which would be favorable to the stocks you have charted below....and I generally like the ones you have selected). Also, GORO is at $17 and seems like it wants to test $15. If/When it does, then I will look to see if it gets some nice volume spikes and a noticeable turn up in MACD, Stochastics, ADX, etc.
Of course if FCX, RIO & CAT pops nicely at any point then likely "Game on" for the miners.
Another one: I've tracked XRA from time to time (a small cap) and it looks like it could possibly turn up soon. Its not as reliable as some of the smaller caps you have charted though..just that I'm seeing some interesting volume, and ADX, stochastics appear to be moving up....but it needs more.
Otherwise, the worst looking of all the miners look like the ones that have a substantial silver component (IAG, SLW, EGO, EXK, JAG, GPL). So they could really tank and set up for a stellar entry that we rarely see....
The copper stocks look ugly but thinking for instance that FCX may have more downside.... and that if it does that the $23-$25 area would be great to pick it up if it gets there. "
re: vix -- Thanks for posting. Very helpful. The only thing right now is that todays candle needs more volume and price action to upside to complete a breakout. As it stands, we have spinning top yesterday and a doji type candle at highs. Normally a top. But the day ain't over and this is a very instructive chart regardless. And as I write, I see at least a modest pickup in volume and another move up. Within the wedge there are more solid hits to bottom which generally means that is the side that will break (but of course this last hit to the top took it over the wedge). So thinking for now its a temporary/false breakout to upside. But we need to watch the close here because everyone may just want to head to the exits. So far, I sense some exhaustion though when looking at the various sector/leader charts on 1 min and other intraday timeframes (but its certainly not clear to me). It seems to me that we could have a lot more to go on vix/vxx especially if we retest the 30-31 area and bounce with some gusto next week...
re: DZZ... Nice look to it still. The reason I'm looking to go long gold soon, is that the liquidity squeeze forcing folks to dump precious metals and the like is likely coming to a close. And, often Friday's (for a variety of reasons) can be the final blow out day . So I really haven't looked much at gold and can't even remember the long ultra etfs and the like. But I'm going to start taking a look at the chart and longer term support to see where we might get a turn (and that may match or slightly anticipate the Bradley turn date (often gold turns first prior to the market making an aggressive move up). Not always. So thats some of my thinking there. Mike
yw desert. best board out there....
Generic- Thanks, Bought some TMV yesterday (3x bear of TLT), may add to it today or next week if/when the trend shows a definitive change (that I can at least have confidence in swing trading for a few days). Looking at going long Gold soon. Not sure this 1600 level is it or whether gold gets to 1550 or thereabouts.
Trend - Thanks for those posts on FCX. I was genuinely interested in your thinking on that. I like your approach and trying over time to get more and more acquainted with it. So when asking a question like that I'm just trying to make sure I understand in certain circumstances what drove you to a particular comment. Otherwise, was offline for a bit...and didn't mean to leave your responses to me hanging out there like that. Much Thx, Mike
Trend: On FCX -- Just a quick question. MACD looks very extreme on FCX (as well as a few other indicators). FCX at approx $30 -- seems to me to be half of trading it was doing a few weeks ago or so.
Is your experience that these type of extremes do not usually wind up in a rebound? I didn't buy FCX but I look at FCX and other stocks as leading indicators for potential bottoming and topping type action.
FCX to me seemed to signal a temporary bottom might be in. Other stocks did as well, especially when I saw that mid day that the China stocks like really beaten down DEER and others were actually gaining ground.
I only use these observations as an indicator. If these indicators look good, then I step into a few things (e.g., I bought a small about of FAS (3x XLF) and DRN (3x IYR) today -- I liked DRN given the action in SPG today).
I may be wrong but stop I think can be relatively tight given the violation of SPX 1120 and then retaking ht level and then getting into 1125-30 area. Not perfect in my mind, since I wanted to see 1135 on SPX. Regardless I like the setup for the market to move up first (except that I expect to see some type of test of lower support during the day tomorrow).
I know your trading regime is different (and I admire it greatly), I was just wondering given these extremes in FCX that we are seeing reflected in MACD, that why you think another leg down is imminent? Thx, Mike
re: FAZ Financials here right at intraday lows (or very near).
Was looking at this anyway -- so will offer a few observations:
A break of XLF/FAS on vol at lows of day would be good for an short swing trade (we are there now or close to there...I would look to FAZ if it looks imminent that the market will fall apart on expanding vol - then FAZ would be really good to go.. Not sure yet -- see no signs of a break down here (except C looks terrible).
Looked at XLF and some of the Financial components --
XLF -- at 11.45 or thereabouts, potentially has another .20 downside (using July 20 as a gauge here) , which could give FAZ a nice lift.
BAC at $6.05 -- just above $6.03 low made earlier in day
C - Breaking down as I write this...looks ugly
WFC - Just above lows and just sitting there for now
MS - Same as JPM... MS looks to need to retake 12.81 to get any steam.. Right now not looking bad but still if it gets some ugly vol then FAZ could go.
GS at lows (or just broke it) acting like it will break a bit lower, but need a volume. GS can be very tricky as gauge for downside action - it can undercut its low on vol and then whipsaw right back up.... JPM/MS likely better gauges (and if BAC breaks & holds under $6)
AMX - At it lows -- looks iffy here
V -- Notbad looking at all....could be a nice hedge to a FAZ position especially if you can catch V weakening a bit later...
All that said, I would consider a scalp here especially if you see JPM/MS breaking down on some intraday vol. Right now its chancy, but worth tracking - this to me can still go either way (even though I think most of downside action is over (but I think we need to see how it goes in an hour after an attempted rally by indices... So right now, thinking FAZ may pull back a bit more for a better entry, then you may want to consider a relatively tight stop. A key to watch for is to see if JPM retest lows today and holds. I'm thinking it will weaken some and do that retest (giving FAZ a bit of short term lift up). Will need to see ugly action in JPM at its lows though I think for FAZ to get much more traction beyond that. Hope that helps.. Good luck, Mike
Mossy---
Tenuous here...I think though that we should have a good clue here in an hour on if we are to be bottoming in the 1119-21 to 1125 area or have lower to go. I think we have to retake 1135 (or close by end of day) for rebound here. Likely temporary until we work or way thru next week -- but at least we can judge the potential for short term swings to upside and downside...
Trend, thanks much on AAPL. My take is that if takes out lows today and doesn't reverse, then market headed a lot lower (especially since this has been a safety trade of late). Looking at $406 to $410 on AAPL and 1135 on SPX as areas that market has take out to upside for the bulls to get any traction. Mike
BT: Semi's popping on one min. They tend to signal at least an intraday rebound. MCP tagged 33 area and then retook .618 retracement level (37-8 area). FCX hit 31 and bounced $2. RIO more sluggish here. CAT as well, but 1 min chart shows that it may have put in a temporary bottom. Dollar may move back up later and put pressure on mkt again if it gets back into $79 area, but dollar looks to me close to pull back and retest of 77 or perhaps 75 in a couple of days. Might be good to take a look at TLT/TNX to see what it is saying. Mike
Big
Agreed. The Fed here is just a temporary marker and not the big key. The market slows down in front of this decision...but it generally doesn't change the trend except in extreme situations. As well, the market got what it expected and sold off anyway.
That said, you can see railroads, and like you appointed out coal pulling back in front of the Fed statement and I would expect that to continue.
Copper on the other hand...I'm not so sure about. This 3.6 area was where I was looking for it to pull back. So action here key in next couple of days there I think. The vol on RIO and FCX may be indicative of at least temporary capitulation. Not sure. On rare earths, MCP looks like it wants that .618 retracement area (which I believe is approx 37.50 to 38 area (right now its at approx 39).
A key to me will be how oil acts here - if it tanks then we go down sooner rather than later. It just seems to me though that this 'readjustment' in commodities has already been largely made ahead of the Fed. The fed statement just fueled the flame a bit (but they are generally behind the market curve).
All that said, normally a move up on fed day is an excuse to sell off the next day. A move down is normally a point to look for a buy point (or at least "cover the shorts"...) within a day or two. Mike
BT/kchan
I always track these fed days and the market reaction tends to be the opposite of what occurs on that day (in coming days). So thinking we are close to a nice rebound here (that may be very shortable...not sure at this point).
At any rate, I tend to think that GS won't live below $100 for very long.
Also and looking at RIO, FCX, MCP, XOM/XLE and the action appears close to capitulation. That may take a day or two more to play out. So I expect a rebound in these financials and commodities unless the euro/greek and Italy concerns next week fall apart. Most of this stuff is baked in.
My concern is that technically we are bear flagging pretty hard on almost everything and transports near lows. CSX and also Coal names give me cause for concern. That said, it just looks like today is overdone, that these stocks will rebound after either premarket lows tomorrow (or a later day test of lower support).
Also, we are very near longer term trend support on the indices (say 10 its on spx and 100 or so on dow). So even though it looks like we have a bear flag going here (and that may play out), it looks to me that we should bounce after pre-market but if not, then later Friday or Monday.
Some technicals but also some speculation here of course...its just the sentiment indicators don't support the price/volume action when looking across the board (that is, for these extremes, I would have expected lower prices already).
If we do anything other than just gap down tomorrow then I think I'm wrong (especially f we continue down), and will have to revise my thinking. Chart-wise I must say I'm bearish, but overall just neutral here and need to see next few day's action...for my part I just need more info... Mike
Meant BT on previous post...have some dslexia here in reading posts tonight....
I'm right here with Big on this. Currencies IMHO trade in ranges...currencies fluctuations/trends show how big money is moving and correlations can be very tight in short to mid term time frames (and even in some longer term timeframes of course).
However, very currency comes to a logical bottom...the markets then react very negatively (especially if the markets have been negatively correlated to that point), but once that gyration/consolidation is over, then you generally get a reversal in this previous trend.
The US Dollar to me is getting very close that (and already exhibiting some signs that it is reversing the negative correlation it has had with the markets). This always takes time to play or trade out, but it looks to me that this is what is happening with the USD (e.g., over time we are getting more and more to where positive moves in the US Dollar will be correlated to up moves in the market).
I don't think we are there yet in terms of a good to great correlation, but I think we are seeing many signs of this type of reversal in the Market to USD correlation that we have seen in the past. Mike
NFP Unchanged/Zero
Futures under continued pressure on weak jobs data... S&P futures now -21, DJ futures -169
-August Nonfarm Payrolls 0 vs 70K Briefing.com consensus; July revised to 85K from 117K
-August Hourly Earnings -0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; July +0.4%
Gold, silver futures spike following worse than expected NFP data
Gold now up $41 to $1870.10.
Silver higher by $1.38 to $42.91.
Had FAZ from yesterday. just took profits here at 57. Usually this is the best pt to do it (say 15 min or so in front of a big report like this. Seems like expectations are too negative here. Regardless, thinking I have a decent chance to get back in on FAZ, TZA or TYH a bit later. This 1190-95 area on SPX looks like decent support. Could see if 1180 or so if market breaks down intraday, may be good place for swing back up. Not in any hurry here though...want to see how market absorbs this news and then how it will position itself going into next week (so events coming out next week regarding Germany on Sept 6 think as well as other items). Mike
Financials down some here on GS news a few minutes ago -- Fed suing them for neglect and the like. FAZ getting a lift. However, here is briefing.com item on it:
"Goldman Sachs quickly recovers from lows... Fed action appears to be a negative, but it pertains to known issues in mortgage industry and relates to a legacy GS business that was sold by co "
But, likely not so good for other firms out there (and for now so seeing some pressure on C, MS, WFC, BAC, etc). Not sure how market will wash the out, but doesn't anything good to market sentiment (and w look very overbought after being up for so many days in a row. So maybe a good excuse to knock 'em down a notch. Mike
Trading Economics. Not sure I have posted the before and I know sdpro, Big, etc have great sources for this stuff and perhaps we should correlate our sources here at some point.
I also use Briefing.com but at times its hard to post since its proprietary...but always willing to go out of my way on that and share their inputs (they ain't always right, but I do track their inputs and worth paying attention to at certain times). So if I can't directly post it, I try to summarize..
Regardless, just adding this 'Trading Economics' site to the mix. Not a bad site and I tend to track it at times for various insights. Link below. Mike
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/calendar-list-by-country
Much appreciated. Also reading now article you sent me in previous post, thanks, Mike
Watching Dollar here, and it looks for some reason that it pacing up higher as Asian and Aussie markets come on line. Worth keeping an eye on I think. It just looks a tad unusual to me. But seen it before and can often be a false alarm. Just seeing so many divergent indicators of late that make almost no sense normally...that wanted to point the out just in case. It just doesn't look like a good indicator at the moment and not sure what to make of it. Mike
Significant Events for tomorrow:
Initial & Continuing claims at 0830
ISM Index at 10.
Comments...
ISM: Very important, perhaps the most. If ISM over 50 then this market could rip to upside. Last month I think 50.9 and views for this month's report is about 48-49. Numbers below 50 indicate recession. But market expecting a bad number so may discount it some. If the number is very low (say 45), then would expect a volatile selloff. But if market selloffs off some, then builds an intraday base and moves up then I would be careful. A positive reaction to a bad ISM number should be taken as a bullish sign until intraday action confirms otherwise. Regardless, ISM should create some whipsaw action that we will just have to gauge and see how it goes...
Jobs: Any claims number above 400k reinforces idea that things aren't going well, especially if over 410k. In my mind there is a healthy chance that this can occur (but not certain). So somewhat of a wild card. I'm more looking to the jobs report Friday and the idea that there are likely many more folks laid off than the ADP Report would show due to Verizon strike, FAA layoffs due to Congressional ineptitude... so tending to expect low numbers for the Jobs report. They are expecting around 75k (perhaps as low as 50k) on the non Farm Payroll report Friday am. If we get very far under this range, then the ADP report of 90k this morning will be a distant memory.
Just some data points to keep in mind...not sure what this market is doing here, but suspect it wants to go higher first say to 1252-60, but if this data is very bad, we could see a nasty reaction at least intraday. Not sure how thiss will settle out. Mike
Seeing TNX (10 yr) gaining momentum, but TLT (20 year) backing off and broke approx 10 day wedge. Thinking that TLT overbought and that we may be seeing some underlying currency moves (where big money is shifting large amounts of funds and creating divergences in the process). A place to look for that is if yen gains added strength. Just not sure. ALso, my TNX data nooks old (say off by 20 minutes). Otherwise, this just could be a fake out by the hedgies and trading programs to test support and catch everyone on wrong side of the trade...Mike