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meant Gold...not gld. As well want to see gold challenge and hold 1420-25, then 1445-50. If so then off to the races. In the meantime II'm shorting both into resistance until they confirm (or give a nice price/vol thrustthat makes me suspicious that the down move is over.
Jerry, My GLD target is 1250-70 area, and GDX thinking just over $25. W emay have bottomed and could have this wrong. Prpoble to me is that 30.25 area has to be broached & held on GDX (that is at or near the top of the high on the gap down in mid April. If that can that held then that gap area can be eaten away (and I likely have the call wrong). Mike
Some comments on S&P/Some sectors--
On the positive side the S&P was able to carve out support in the 1608-10 area – the session low at 1608 was at the 50 day, which was the pullback close low from last week & the multi-month rising channel.
There essentially was no let up in the day as it set a series of new daily highs into the close. Overall the pattern was a constructive ‘higher low’ daily pattern.
We are extended here as 1639-40 was tagged (this was the Tuesday trend line touch off of May-June highs). This should set up some ‘backing and filling’ sometime after open (but it may take a while as we may make another attempt to get into yesterday’s high s and extend some – say into 1645-47). However, if markets overnight become a bit volatilite then we may just see an earlier test back into 1629-31 area,
Parameters for tomorrow then are: Initial level support is at 1629-31. Resistance is at the last week close of 1642/1643 (and is this week’s close high so far) and then next at 1645-1647. After that level of resistance I have is into 1650 area (1652-55, 1600) – but need to refine that a bit after more work.
Here’s may raw input on XLF fwiw…still analyzing & refining here…
XLF finished at the highs and just at the low close of May 31. That could set up for some consolidation prior to much of an advance as a for instance (e.g. we might see a pop into approx. $20 which was at June 4 high and June 7 & 10 mid day consolidation area, May 31 pullback low area, etc)
ALso IWM at top of 10 day hourly chart back to May 31 - now need to go back May 22 'cause I suspect that will be a bit of a tell in terms of the markets. Mike
Gold Technicals, Support, etc
I put this together a bit ago, its quick & dirty input
The weekly charts indicating what looks like a 3 soldiers pattern down potentially unfolding om=n many of the mining charts like ABX, AUY, etc...so that changes an idea I had made for this week and next a bit (only 2 of 3 weekly soldiers down printed so far...so next week could be potentially more ugly than I initially thought). Not sure. At any rate, I put this together for Linda, a friend of mine but had some of you in mind as well when doing so. Basically to give you some thoughts on what technicals are indicating (by different methods):
1-- I did a rough fib calc on this and just approx the 50% pull from 2008. I think the low there was 8660-70 and high 1923. I can't quite figure out how to get fib lines to work on this beta version of Fidelity ATP).So I basically did: 2000-900=1100=1350. That makes a lot of sense when seeing more recent fib line overlaps to that longer term one.
2--As well Tom O'Brien TFNN Network) uses an ABCD pattern, I think his target is either 1470 or 1410. A guy that follows him gave me these values:
A=1923.70
B=1535
C=1798
D=1410.
3--Goldman Sachs I think was saying sell the other day and cover at 1450
4--The lowest values that folks have otherwise touted are 1150, 1270, 1370. I doubt we get there now. If this bearish trend continues through end of may/June then I could see that as a possibility. That actually would get closer to dovetailing with the normal 2 year pullback/consolidation that all these things go through. And as tough as these values may be longer term, that still would preserve the longer term up trend (even tons of trend lines have been broken). That is from a fib perspective I bet we either hit that 50% retracement level or perhaps on of these (and my guess is that 1250-1270 would be the 61.8% retracement level. That is the lowest that a pullback will go off a longer term trend and still preserve the idea that the move is considered bullish longer term (despite how horrendous it is in the intervening time frame...)
5-Otherwise, I'm thinking we get a nice bounce here after a volatile week coming up. Just don;t know whether we initially bounce, falter to 1400 or 1350, or if we go ahead and sell off right away, extend and then attempt a bounce later in week or early the following week. Otherwise, I'm out of the way of this train...likely will short pops into resistance until it shows it can retake old resistance levels on volume..with some gusto. Afterwards we should see a viscous bounce to trade to upside and then have to re-assess to see if bear trend is actually over or if it was just a counter trend bounce... Mike
Precious Metal/Miner Trade -- Update
Since I've made somewhat of a big deal that I think gold/silver has bottomed...I will put a few comments forward here as to what my current thinking is...
#1--Overview: The Gold/Silver trade either has bottomed, or, perhaps may have some more chop with a bit of undercut in coming days/weeks. Regardless, this area likely will present itself as a bit of 'safety trade' for some investors particularly when viewed from a 'sector rotation' standpoint. The pull back is either done or just about done in these commodities and related miners. With the news events in Cyprus, as well as some overall jitters out there regarding Slovenia, Spain, perhaps Luxembourg...well this may provide some reason for institutions, hedge funds, etc to move more aggressively to buy Gold/Silver and related mining stocks.Below I provide some comments on how some of these stocks are acting recently & what to watch for (and I have some important caveats along the way).
#2--AUY: Given its fundamentals, and previous buying activity by institutions a couple of years ago....I still particularly like AUY on any pull backs that get back into the $14 level. I pointed this one out when it was near $14 and I'm tending to think that it won't get back in the low $14s again. But one to watch for adding to 'here and there' as we see pullbacks in Gold/Silver.
#3--Copper, the Mkts (& how the precious metals tend to perform off of bottoms): As an important note, the idea that copper continues to struggle implies to me that the precious and base metal trade may have some more sideways consolidation to go here. This may very well dovetail with the pattern work I do that suggests that late April/early May is when we are more likely to see the larger pullback in the markets that everyone has been anticipating for so long. Often, when the precious and base metals get going, they tend to trade up with the markets. However, after a long harsh pullback & consolidation like we have seen in the metals/miners, frequently they tend to be a contrary trade to the markets for awhile. If the markets pull back harshly, then often the commodities follow suit. However, once a harsh market pull back abates some.... and we just enter a normal 'sideways to down consolidation' over several weeks, then the precious metals and some base metals will tend to outperform. That is, everything goes down when we get an initial hard correction to the downside in the markets...however, the sectors that are getting ready to outperform over the next couple of quarters generally will offer a very nice 'contrary trade' to the upside while this market correction unfolds. Once that reversal takes hold and then later the markets recover, frequently those new sectors that are ready to move aggressively to the upside, will then track together with the market's resumption of its previous uptrend. At any rate, a lot of indications here point to the idea that the Gold/Silver trade has tentatively found a bottom, but that its has a more choppy 'V' type of bottom here than I expected. So I'm thinking I could be a tad premature in some respects on a part of my call I made a couple of weeks ago (and that we could get a very nice undercut of the some of March 6 reversal candles within selected areas of the precious metal trade). If that happens, and we see a really nice set of reversal candles (e.g., dojis, island reversal, etc), then at that point...this actually may be the better entry point for the larger, more aggressive move up that I'm looking for (so my pointing to March 6 as the reversal may be premature and we will just have to watch and see). In the meantime., several of the miners may not revisit their March 6 lows (and just test the upside of the bullish reversal candle that day).
#4--RGLD (Royal Gold): If you can catch RGLD just above $66 then likely a good catch - note the very nice bullish candle on March 6th that essentially swallowed up the previous 3 days trading range. Right now its at $70.40.
#5--GOLD (Rangold) in the past has tended to be one of the leaders, but on March 6 it had a similar bullish candle, that was then undercut, but a nice reversal was printed 2 days later, and it has been up afterward. However, the action is a little more suspicious to me and perhaps some of the other majors are better to look at.
#6--AEM/ABX & GDX: In a similar vein, AEM I think is going to be a big gainer and revisit its highs which is close to double from here, but so far.... its performance off of the bottom is a bit more lackluster than I expected. ABX looks to be the stock that has a larger presence in the GDX ETF, but its also been more lackluster than I expected. However, I still believe the downside is limited given that its essentially tagged its 61.8% retracement level off its entire move from the early 2000 timeframe. But, perhaps I need to go further back and re-evaluate fib lines, chart patterns and the like - say back to mid 1980s. So I need to study this more.
#7--AU: This is the one that Paulson has lost a ton of money on along with a couple others that are smaller cap miners. AU right here might be setting up for a nice reversal. We just need watch and see how it performs after today's action which looks close to a 'star' or doji at a bottom. So it needs added confirmation.
#8--GORO/SA: Both seemed to lead the miners here by a couple of days and then ran into some trouble. SA, may be bottoming based on today's action, but needs to start carving back into upside resistance to prove that it can be a leader. GORO is more interesting in that it has a nice yield, sold off more than expected, but today's action looked intriguing in that it looks like it did bottom(right now its in the mid $12 area). So GORO I'm thinking is well worth paying attention to right here to see how it reacts in coming days/weeks.
#9--AUMN: A lot of folks I've traded with in the past really like this stock. Previously, I've cautioned to stay away since often the majors and mid majors like AUY tend to get going first. AUMN undercut it closing action back in 2009 when it tagged 2.18 (note: I'm ignoring here the action when it was a penny stock and traded well beneath 2.25 and into pennies when it first traded). It had a nice push up towards $3 recently & afterwards and has been consolidating since. My sense was a couple weeks or so ago that $2.45-50 was the re-entry point. Its now sitting there, so for those interested in this stock then this might be the area to consider (either now or say in a couple of weeks or so). That is, as noted above, I'm not seeing that these stocks are taking off, and I'm tending to think that we need another couple to few weeks of 'chop' off of these recent bottoms before the gold/silver miners really get going again and accelerate. So AUMN may be a watch or perhaps if this is one you really like then nibble a bit at syupport and just wait for a bit and see what it doe.
#10--Silver: I'm think that some of the Silver miners are starting to look good. SLW, PAAS & EXK
#11--Other Interesting Micro/Small Caps: These looks to have improving technicals, particularly measures that I use for buying pressure. They likely aren't ready to really pop, but worth keeping an eye on for later entry. They include. MUX, XRA, GPL, NGD, PLG (needs some more improvement). I will try to review these in more detail and update thinking (and perhaps delete some or add some depending on they act in coming days).
Note: I did a lot of this analysis on these stocks above very quickly and really need to go back & study in more depth. Hopefully though I gave some good things to look for and presents a nice heads up for those interested in this trade. Mike
These notes over past month are from the techtrader site I used to subscribe to until Saturday night. There are some interesting stocks that I commented on and thought some of you may be interested in seeing them or scanning through them in case you see some stocks here that you are interested in. Unfortunately all of the formatting was lost when I posted so it might be a bit tough to look over (I also sent via the Smarttrader yahoo group). Mike
Mar 3, 2013 00:06:22 by Mike2
Stock Notes/ Commentary
TSRO, SFLY, XIN, YHOO, ZIXI (I really like the looks of the weekly on this), REV, SPLK, SPNC. All nice looking charts to plot for pullbacks to support. Otherwise---
MTG, FIG, OWW - Renokid had some nice charts he was pulling up. RDN for instance just looks like a buy on dips if you like MTG (which looks good too). FIG which I like but it is a slow mover like CSE (which is a very nice looking chart that I like but may be a creeper to the upside). BLK is higher priced, but should outperform (and in similar area of fin svcs, asset mgmt. etc). Also, Rino brought up OWW which I think looks great. OWW just plowed through the weekly 200 ema on a 3 soldiers pattern. So I would expect it to start to stall sometime this week…so if/when you get the high either this week or last, then take a 25-38% cut off of that as a retracement – likely that may be close to a test of the weekly 200 ema at 4.05-10 area…but you’ll just have to see. Note that Hertz (HTZ) in same group doing well to – but its flying like a pig compared to what OWW seems to be going for. TRIP in same group I think looks to be consolidating (but has had good earnings) so may come back up on radar laterREN, an Oil Co looked nice chartwise too. That might be a good winner as well. RNIN and ZGNX was mentioned by kairos or others…they look good to keep track of. RNIN big candle this week but retreating off of resistance on the weekly. Note that the Monthly 9 ema is approx at 3.90-4 area. A take out and hold there likely means a nice move ahead – say a double (but really would expect some sideways to down consolidation).
Older Swing Trades:
These may want to be investigated for re-initiating if they continue to strengthen &/or good entry on pullback can be achieved: ACAD, INFI, LGF, ANSS, DNKN, FAST, NUGT (only when most/tall criteria achieved that I’ve mentioned previously GDX firms up in the 34-35 area AEM shows that it is reversing at approx $35-37, also expecting Silver to test into approx $25-$26 area, gold maybe as low as 1525-50. Note also that you generally want to see volume receding as it tests these area I outlined here.
Note (re: Commodity bottoming process when it occurs)
The run-up in commodities began in Oct/Nov 2008 and ran until it peaked in Aug/Sept 2011. It’s been a downhill slide ever since to now spring 2013 it looks like. The last phases of these selloffs in commodities are generally the ugliest. They tend to form ‘V’ bottoms on some choppy trade (especially the leaders like AEM, ABX, PAAS, etc). The move after that generally sticks. Also if you draw fib retracement off the entire move of ABX from Oct 2000 low, note that ABX is just about at its 61.8% retracement area (which as approx $28.40). An undercut of that might be expected then a recovery (ABX currently is at $29.40). Most of the leaders are showing a similar dynamic. Also, generally on this bottoming process, it’s the big caps like AEM, ABX, etc that move first (that’s why I tend ot like AEM, or the big cap miner index GDX (and the leveraged etf NUGT); perhaps PAAS, AUY or something similar. The juniors will take a while to really get going (they may pop, but generally most of them fizzle afterwards – trade sideways and chop and won’t get going normally for weeks).
Other Comments (APH, AGN, LCI, COT)
APH, AGN – I love these two charts. AGN emblematic of things Harry is tracking like AEGR, PCYC, etc that are doing extremely well and tracking along like there is no market volatility. APH (Amphenol) is in electrical components – several of these doing well (note LRCX too – but not exactly where I want it technically as yet)
CBR & INFY – I think Harry has traded both in the past. I pulled them up. I like the action I saw on both of these on the day of the sell off (Feb 25). I try to chart stocks on sells offs to see what is popping. A very interesting day to see the type of charts that were getting action that day (I saw a fair amount of very good charts, which tends to indicate that the bull move higher is resilient (often you see just banks or junk moving if the market is going into an accelerated decline). Note that they both are involved with some level of consulting and outsourcing (INFY in India and other places and Ciber in US, Europe, Asia – likely a good focus area for stocks as RHI and others may just consolidate in front of the sequester action.
LCI (Lannet CO, generic drugs) – Thinking this could be a real winner in coming weeks. Watching to see how technicals act. Nice action on Friday with touch and rejection of daily 9 ema. Reminds of other lower priced generics that have gotten legs in last year or so.
COT (Cott beverage) – Note that we are seeing a continual rotation within the beverage stocks. BEAM looks good. STZ popped recently. I think it is flagging on the weekly to go higher. PEP may be in a consolidation phase. SAM looks stellar (and there is buyout rumors I believe). COT technically I think has great action; recently overbought in daily but looks to be tracking in sideways consolidation alonfg the 9 ema at $9.38. Weekly is strong with stochastics running at over 90, but extended in this current pattern. Looking for COTT to bump into and take out 200 monthly ema which has been tracking down from $11 (so expecting to see resistance & choppy trade into 9.50-10.50 area until we see a positive cross of the 9 and 200 ema in the monthly chart. Looks to be obeying the 50 sma on more extreme pull backs which is at $8.70 and rising. A hold or slight n undercut of that area likely a good entry as long as that lower price is decisively rejected in subsequent trade. Also, note the nice 50 weekly sma cross with the 200 ema in early Jan and how well it has done afterward. I would expect similar trade in coming weeks as new resistance is confronted; it stalls a bit, and then makes more positive crosses of those resistance points. In time looking to see weekly buying pressure on COT to improve with embedded stochastics at 94-95% plus. If achieved and maintained for 3 or more weeks, then all subsequent pullbacks should be relatively shallow and we will have a nice trend up.
Okay with that much stuff like you would see in a newsletter…well I hope I didn’t butcher up everything I was trying to say. Mike McManus (Mike Mac)
Mar 2, 2013 03:43:43 by Mike2
As thanks to the group, this is a list of stocks I’ve been evaluating that has a higher likelihood to outperform over next few weeks to few months (see list below). It’s not exhaustive, just ones that have high growth &/or good earnings, and performing well chart wise (also I have a post on gold miner stocks below this post).
AEGR, AEIS, AGN, ANSS, APH, ARMH, ARRS, BDX, BIIB, BLK, CAH, CHD, CELG, CERN, COT, CRAY, CREE, CSE, DHR, DISCA, EGOV, FARO, FAST, FIRE, FIVE, FLT, FURX, GDP, GEO, GNC, GRFS, HDSN, HTZ, HSY, IMAX, INFI, IP, JPM, LCI, LGF, LRCX, MAT, MDCO, MPC, MSI, MTZ, MU, NCS, NLS, NXPI, OPEN, ORLY, PCYC, PKG, PRO, RAD, RDN, REV, SPLK, SPNC, STZ, SVU, SYK, TMO. TSCO, TSRO, TSO, TUP, XRX, VLO, WYN, ZIXI, ZOLT
Note 1: Other strengthening biotech/pharma not on above list & many likely to outperform: ABMD, ACAD, BRKR, CERS, CLDX, CLVS, CNDO, DCTH, FLDM, IRWD, ISIS, MNKD, MNTA, OMCL, OPK, NBIX, PCRX, SGMO, SIGA
Note2: Bolded stocks indicate the ones most likely to have very shallow pullbacks on any correction that successfully holds or quickly regains bullish support – i.e., like the 9 ema on daily (or very worst case 9 ema on weekly) – if later test of weekly 9 ema happens and rebound not fairly immediate, then expect a longer consolidation/correction). I’m expecting a decent market pullback nominally around March 15 that is longer than the normal 1-2 days we have seen so far. (so if you invest or otherwise interested in any of the above, then make sure to keep an eye on make sure that they don’t fall apart on an extended market consolidation or correction). At any rate, if they hold up well on next serious market pullback, then most of these stocks will outperform their peers (given the level of sustained buying pressure that I’m seeing on the weekly chart and other timeframes).
Good luck folks, adios, Mike Mac
Mar 1, 2013 21:29:57 by Mike2
Gold bug Update:
I put this together for a very talented trader I know, but also mentioned that I might post it later. I know a lot of folks here like AUMN (which I don’t address below). However, I’m thinking that a test of the close of Jun 1 2009 at $2.45 and the top of May 2009 at $2.50 is the area near where AUMN will find support (you could see a slight undercut there). It’s not a gold stock I know much about, but that’s a ‘quick & dirty’ analysis on it. Otherwise, without changes here is what I provided to this other technical trader on Gold related stocks:
“On Gold: DZZ as mentioned looks to be peaking soon. So if we look at GDX, ABX, AEM, etc (and combine your approach with Tom's - then this is what we have:
1 – ABX target 25-27. ABX 'perhaps' will hit a round number that you like at $25:
-- So for ABX, look at Monthly and see the touches on the 200 ema in Sept 2008 & Mar 2009. The touches on the 200 ema then was at about $25.50-$26 area (quite often a revisit of these areas where the 200 ema was previously tested is the point where any of these stocks bounce on selloffs like this. So $25 may not quite get tested and we might see $26-$27 area.
2 – AEM: Target $35-$37.
--Note the failure of the weekly 200 ema at approx. $40 in Oct 2008. See that the tops of the candles during that volatile period were around $35-$37. $35 is the round number you like... However, the weekly Nov 17 is likely the better candle that both you and Tom might like (and note that the high was at $34.84). However, I'm thinking AEM being the leader in the group, will not make it that far, and actually may just test or get near the top of the Feb 13 2012 candle that had a high at $37.18 (and note that the close was at $35 and this was a really interesting test of the underside of the weekly 9 ema at that point). I bet it won't get down that far to $35...but that is speculation. However, it just seems to me that we can posit that a test and rejection of that $35-$37 area is something to look for (and AEM may bounce slightly above that - say at $38ish...)
3 – GDX (target $34-$35): I don't use the quarterly very often...but check out the Oct 2008 action: High at $35 Open & Close near $34 (and candle hung at the close on the 9 ema for the quarter). I would say ETFs are distorted - and GDX not very old but this is where I have a target anyway for GDX for a bounce that can stick for a while.... So if we turn to IAU...I have IAU with 200 weekly ema at $14....I'm thinking that IAU may not get quite that far down -- so I need to study that more to see how IAU may correlate better with what I'm seeing elsewhere.”
Feb 24, 2013 20:00:54 by Mike2
Kairos: You talked about about two other stocks. My fat fingers just deleted what I typed moments ago -- despite my daughter asking me for help I will retype but now very briefly & ever so fast...
QIHU - Agree with you that this might be an interesting replacement for BIDU for many reasons. I see Friday's action as not quite decisive, so thinking we see sideways to down action here before becoming teh next BIDU that we like to se 'chart wise.'
YY - Not enough data for me to comment. See why you like it. The daily signals to me some down action here sooner rather than later. Harry much better at nailing these type of stocks and potential for upmove than I so would, so would go with his thinking (besides different analytical views are always good and you are driving nicely in that direction by picking up on stocks like this and several others you comment on). So I am looking at YY, but I,m a bit more negative - but a lot of it is that I'm indecisive on YY -- more based on the type of data I look for in charts. I may refine my idea later after more study. If so, I will post.
Feb 22, 2013 00:49:36 by Mike2
Some stock & market notes as an FYI.
COT – Looking for a continued sideways to slightly down move in next few days. Currently at $9.26. Good entry likely at $9-9.10 or perhaps a very brief undercut of that level (say to 8.80-85, but then needs to retake $9 area quickly afterwards (1-2 days). Looking for 10.40-50 to be taken out soon, then 11.75-12. There is a fair amount of resistance at $15, but technical suggest that COT will eventually eat into that upside resistance. Note: A lot of beverage stocks seem to be doing well (see PEP, BEAM, SAM (SAM looks extended based on todays action).
CSE – Nice breakthrough of upside resistance since earnings. Looks like these are highs the stock hasn’t seen 2008-2009. Acting like this could continue trend higher sooner rather than later.
FURX – A very powerful looking chart.
GMCR – Improving after breakdown from Feb 6. If it continues may create nice scalp into $50. Still tenuous though until we see added tech improvement.
INVN – Looks destined for sub $13; thinking $12.25-50
MERU – Good technicals, needs to try to hold close of today perhaps down to $4. A close and hold beneath $4, but especially 3.65 to 3.84 for more than a day or two, likely means more sideways to down consolidation ( see Jan 30 price action & today’s low)
MO & PM – Seeing these strengthen of later and look good for the safety trade. Also saw grocery stocks pop like KR, SWY etc. Tends to make me worried that market trend is ready for a longer correction when I see this nice action in these stocks.
MOS – Oversold, hitting support and trend lines that I drew in a long tie ago, suspect ti will pop Friday or early next week.
PCYC – Exceptional action on all timeframes it looks like. Charts like these that achieve $80, break to new highs tend to get into $120 more quickly than most expect. Likely a better safety type trade since it’s a pharma and often these can weather any market corrections pretty well.
REV – Looks like consolidation here is more likely than not…thinking a test of $18-19 may come. Still a very nice chart to watch.
SVU – Still looks strong despite recent volatility in market.
Other (market, miners, refiners) —
Market Indices – We saw an aggressive move in bonds and the .vix yet the indices really didn’t sell off very much, and so far has held that critical area above 1490. So unless a step slide Friday or Monday then expecting another move up (and the latter is what I expect based on strength of market technicals on the weekly charts (which tends to support a bounce after a 1-2 day correction. Thinking though after another push up that as we finish out Feb and March we will see an extended correction of between 3-5 days and will have to re-evaluate there to see hw support held.
Miners/Metals (GLD, SLV, GDX, JJC) – Seeing counter trend bounce it looks like. GDX attempting to carve in double bottom from March 16. But still really weak technicals, these often fail here and test lower support (on GDX $38 was first level of support I had, but most of what I’m looking at is more like a test into $34-35 area, prior to seeing a robust bounce. Regardless, this are is key to hold, I just don’t think it will. Once a successful test either here or into or above 34-35, then expect added chop and stocks lie AEM, ETFs like GDX, NUGT, likely a good entry for a nice bounce (but stops have to be judged carefully to be tight but to give the expect chop enough room to operate.
Refiners – VLO, TSO. Some like these look poised for a pop in next couple of days. Looked at XLE, OIH (and ERX, DIG), the sell off to downside looks to be abating, however, they look overall weaker than refiners (for a bounce), but DIG and ERX might give a good scalp as there are leveraged.
Feb 18, 2013 21:35:43 by Mike2
AL – kairos: I have a lot of these I’ve been tracking this is not one of them (e.g., CAP, FLY etc) . This is an interesting catch, is similar to FLY I think but FLY looked to print a doji star at top which generally is at least a short term reversal. CAP is a bit different in that it is strictly more about container leasing whereas AL & FLY I think is in a similar area. However, you do see a lot of the Air Cargo guys doing well. Some doing well, others like FLY are mixed. AL looks pretty good and I see a lot of resistance at $26 (and then up to 29-30). If it can handle $26, then you are good to go on this, except that every couple bucks or so I would expect it to get beat bacl a bit, then go again. Again correlating technical measures are key to understand how well a stock is doing when climbing through resistance.
AMRI – Kathy: A stellar white candle on the weekly on very nice volume. It’s right now into a resistance area between $8-10. If it can eat into that area and hold the gains then it will outperform. But a lot of tough resistance there and on up. This will be interesting to watch and perhaps trade any intraday or other pull back you see. The daily says a pull back is more likely than not right here so likely have time to plot an entry if support held they we like to see (e.g., low volume pullback to say $7 while other technical indicators are maintaining a good look).
AVP, REV, TUP: CharlieA: You mentioned AVP, you can see many in this industry sector and how stellar the charts look. AVP does too but Friday’s action broke the previous two day consolidation area. So would look to see if it holds a 50% move into the very nice white candle of Feb 12 (worst case should be in that 9.25-30 area where the 9 ema is if this stock is to retain its overall bullish posture in the short term). It may very well do that. Not sure when this move is over in these stocks, but worth keeping an eye on,
AIG (CharlieA) – Bearish engulfing candle on the daily, needs to correct that negative bias in next couple of days.
BKD (Dwight or Dwarfer I think) – Both of you asking interesting questions. Someone asked if we were seeing a gravestone doji on BKD. Well the question you are really asking for those that don’t know what that is the question you are really asking is: ‘are we seeing a high vol selloff?’ In fact we did have a bit of a worrisome candle there but you need confirmation.
Context is important when assessing whether a candle is a consolidation type of move or an indication that a reversal is in effect. The action that day ‘said, not so fast,’ this may consolidate sideways. It’s doing so – not perfect, but you can see where the lows are each day after that candle (and, as long as you trade at that or above that support level you are okay).
Any drift below the close of that day would say I need to pay more attention to the idea that it may break lower. So watch that action, but stops should be tightened toward the close of Feb 13 (but not overly tight because modest violations are okay) as long as the are recovered quickly the next day).
MTZ/NCS (CharlieA, 7Diamonds) – On MTZ…Quite frankly I don’t know what to do with this. Which is a bit of an excuse as I buy time here…. The fact is that this is climbing the 9 ema (or whatever bullish moving average someone picks plot price action against it) – as mentioned before I prefer the 9 ema on daily & weekly. And any 2 day move that holds is a sell in my trading discipline. The Monthly is particularly true – that is, the 40/50 daily sma roughly speaking and a violation there is curtains for a while almost always). MTZ Weekly and Monthly are impressive, so indicates a continued climb. In one of the few cases that the quarterly chart is overly informative…well pull it up and look at Jan & Apr 2000. Big resistance at $30 to $60, but volume and other technical measures recently indicating that recent action in MTZ will beat that area like there is no to tomorrow. It’s likely will just inch up, but this is really impressive in how it is just rending up. You still have to watch of course how the technicals support the continued move above $30 when it occurs, but I like the action longer, longer term. NCS strikes me as in same category, and also telling us about housing and reconstruction (both in housing as well as various disasters over last season). NCS looks good to plod up, making higher highs during the year. Just cleared a 3 yr high at 15.95 and now trying to eat into 5 years back in 2009 during that Jan to Mar 2009 explosive down move (also see Oct 2009 and really high vol there at same area). All indications are that you are going to eat into that but this is the area you have to keep in mind to make sure that recent action can overcome all of the sellers that held through that down move in various parts of 2009.
NTWK – (CharlieA): This is some of the better volume we have seen on this stock. A very nice white candle into the 200 ema. You have to wacth the daiy activity here, but al ot of things are saying this actually could double to retest highs in a couple of quarters. I have no idea of fundamentals on this and if you pull up 1 min you can see tht there is a lot of intraday resistance at 9.95-10. The law of big number (so to speak) indicates tha you are likely to see a sideways to down consolidation. But this is impressive like AMRI I mentioned above (in much the same way I think)
Oil Service (CharlieA/Kathy):
CharlieA as mentioned I like these. DWSN is still low vol but reaction to earnings is good. You may also know I mentioned IO but do not like reaction to earnings but it is in a longer term resistance area here anyway. HERO I like too but, it oriented close to a doji star it looks like just across the 200 ema on the weekly – so might expect some added consolidation now in seevral of these names, but all that are being pulled up worth keeping an eye on longer term.
HDSN – CharlieA: Bullish weekly move & right at Jan 7 resistance (see the high vol during that week and now HDSN moving into the top of that). Daily action does indicate some indecision over past three days, but so far that indecision is being resolved to the upside. That generally is strongly positive that a move coming in a week or so that will break successfully ut the top of the current cup back to Jan 9 note attempts at same level May 1, Aug 1, and Nov 9 that failed a t tad early). It keeps coming back up here to these levels and technical have maintained a pretty good look. That it’s indicative that if you hammer something a few times (up or down) and technicals are with you that generally you break that barrier to the move. In this case, a lot here indicates a break coming to upside soon. On the negatives: Low cap stock, so may need another shelf offering at some point, free cash flow not impressive, regardless chart indicates move ahead but not sure of what fundamentally help or impeded it. Btw: I still like WFR I mentioned (saw you posted earnings on it which looked great). I took profits after my previous post, but need to revisit and perhaps get back in on a pull back.
SFUN – Not sure who pointed out. Stellar buying pressure on Monthly. Almost 2 year cup being challenged (and broken thru a bit back to May 2011. Weekly stochs indicative of a sideways consolidation that may continue. Daily strengthening so this may be finishing out soon. Jan 8 and Jan 30 candles instructive in terms of support as well as May 2011 monthly candle. Basically $26 looks like good support when looking at weekly. $27-28 is an area that will provide continued struggles for a bit longer. But any pullback looks like it can be contained at 23-25 area (likely 25). Summary: very good looking but needs to hold $26-27, and continue to strengthen (technical measures) afterwards.
Feb 9, 2013 18:36:53 by Mike2
Gaming Stock Update:
Add PNK (Pinnacle), PENN & IGT as a distinct possibility on gaming stocks. Then LVS.
Other of course as noted: MGM, CZR, MPEL (MPEL looks close to stretched though and that perhaps maybe a heads up....).
Note (for later): Most these not on our list except recently BYD..and Charlie flagged MGM on Friday. I like MGM, BYD a possibility....
LVS interesting to me...I don't quite like some of the technicals on the Daily and Monthly....But I eally like the weekly technicals by and large ...
What's interesting here is that we may be getting some early heads up that we might push a tad higher on these stocks but that they might easily get a 'quick and fast' consolidation that surprises everyone Then they will go again...and some of these that have not moved as much (LVS, BYD, MGM) may rock n' Roll. So I'm thinking there is some time for this trade to play entirely out -
Plan: look for a hard pull back on some of these that takes us off guard...then stalk entry. Not clear though to me that I have this quite nailed like I would like to analytically.
Feb 9, 2013 18:10:29 by Mike2
By the way on GDX--My work indicates that May/Jun 2012 was a false double bottom, we are bear flagging in same vicinity and we very likely will undercut of that level. May not pan out but at moment I have a 90-95% confidence level that I got this call correct. GDXJ (loaded with Silver miners and the juniours looks even worse chartwise I think (which is one reason I suspect we could actually see some of the SIlver stocks and SLV turn a bit ahead of the Gold miner majors that comprise GDX/IAU (e.g., AEM, GG, GOLD, ABX, etc)
Feb 9, 2013 14:41:57 by Mike2
Miners - Posting this now before I forget.
The buy is with Platinum/Palladium stocks:
SWC – is $14.31, $14 might be good entry)
PPG – $1.45, needs to pull back say .20-25 to 1$.20)
PAL – $1.92 (may be hard to get a pullback on this but it might get to $1.80
TC – $4, this hasn't technically improved where I would like to see, but worth keeping an eye on
Gold Miners will continue to decline. I've followed these for years and generally understand the trade. very well. Typical of what should see is that will see one or two more big down swings (there should also be a few shallow moves up into resistance. What you want to look is a very nice reversal candle on the weekly or monthly chart. For AEM that may be a more recent one in Feb 2012 ($35-37 is likely target - AEM at $45 now). Many others will either retest there 2010-2011 reversal candles. However, it looks like some of these miner charts are setting up low back to 2008 and perhaps earlier years on some stocks.
Silver (SLV) bearish here not as bearish and those may turn sooner than gold miners. Copper might do same (SCCO actually looks decent here - but TCK terrible, FCX trying to close downside gap from Dec3/4 (I think they were buying out someone).
What often happens with these stocks is that they crash on a Friday at some point, accelerate down. That often occurs at about the same time of an extended market correction. That can happen a couple of times...generally then they after that they start to turn or reverse just in front of a market pop back up.
Feb 9, 2013 12:29:19 by Mike2
I have GDX losing another 5-10% (now at 42, looking for 38, perhaps 35. I think all of these stocks and metals are basically shorts (including SLV & GLD) until bear flags &/or negative trends reverse. Same with Coal stks, and some copper. Seeing same as mentioned with Homebuilders other material stocks"
End of Notes
I just started nibbling here on GDX/NUGT.
I have a target for a bounce on GDX when it hits $34-35 area - today it got to 35.89. As well AEM in the 35-38 area, ABX if it hits 28.50 or below and thne bounces. So I think this correction is just about over.
I looked at about 30-40 miner stocks. The ones that seemed to bouncing a tad ahead of everything else were: SA (Seabridge), GORO (for good reason I think), XRA (a tiny small cap but managers in firm seem pretty good). Maybe FSM. Thinking though AU (Paulspon's stock) may get a viscious bounce.
At any rate, since now everyone is screaming for the exits, we are seeing these stocks now testing support back to 2008 and in some case back to 2000. ABX for exampl looked to make a 61.8% retracement off of its whole move over that period. That tends to spell the end of a correction like this (i.e,. ABX, along with AEM, ABX, GOLD, SLW, GG are basically the acknowledged leadership stocks in the space, if the test really old support on receding volume and can get traction above that - then the correction is towards its end.
By the way, I have SLV as worst case a test of $25-$26 and Gold as a test into 1525-50. We are right on top of this area (today I think gold tested around 1570 again. An interesting thing to keep in mind is thta Euro meeting is Thursday, if tehy lower rates, then US dollar may get one more move or so to upside. If so, the pop I anticipate in Gold and the miners may be delayed for a few days. Mike
Content from us.bernerverein.ch, a known malware distributor is what I have as the offending site. Please realy to Investors Hub. Also see my note to Steve on a list of "Stellar Charts' I have been reviewing - I will repost that later after I refine and hopefully the subject line will be clearer. Mike
sdpro: Malware Alert-- I'm getting continually blocks now to this site from google chrome that 'malicious adware has been inserted on investors hub.advfn.com' Google chrome is exceptionally persistent on this on two different windows pcs I've been using tonight. I'm on my Apple imac at moment. Regardless every time I pull up site right now I get a spam message generated that I have to 'x' out of,,,likely if I click on the link the have on these various spam [ages I will get infected. At this point signing off, but this looks like a fairly serious issue at the moment. Be careful on the site until investors hub addresses this issue. Mike
Steve:
Some other very bullish stocks to throw out for you and others
Many of these are stellar longer term and uptrend is not over in most if not all of these mentioned (and some look like they will spring nicely in coming days/weeks).
Re: -- First though --- HEK ----
Nice catch. Monthly technicals suck...but that is a really nice improvement on daily & weekly recently. Looks like it has a good chance of getting some steam (from 4.35)and face resistance in the 5-5.15 area, then it can get to 5.50 perhaps a tad higher then face a consolidation (hopefully sideways to only modestly down).
So as I was looking at HEK. I figured it would be a good idea to make a couple quick notes right here (and update later this weekend I hope)---
1-Plat/Palladium stocks doing very well (see SWC, PLG, PAL, TC is a watch but might go these stks need a pullback first prior to entry) - look at PPLT ETF and year long cup its getting ready to break out of. WIth possible excpetion of Copper stocks (SSCO, FCX) all other miners are still in an extended 2 year correction phase thta shou;d start to wrap in next few weeks and coincide with marekt correction)
2-Low priced stock that have a very nice setup for 10-25% move soon: SVU, MITK, ACUR...Note: Haven't quite assessed entry here...but we are close I think for entry early next week. SVU really looks exceptional if it can hold this sideways consolidation (and technicals continue to improve a bit).
3-- Other low priced: ZNGA looking for re-entry (I also have DNDN that I bought Friday morning and HERO Whole area here with Oil services, refiners, and producers look very good (e.. AUDC looks great but may be extended.
4- higher priced stocks tht look exceptionally compelling (have not assessed entry as yet): DECK, SGI, CPSS, LNG, LGF, HRB, RHI, SFY, GNRC, NLS, CRAY, NBIX, NXPI, REV, MAT, GEO,FOE SGEN, perhaps INFI, also gamimg (and related) MGM, CZR & MPEL (on consolidation or pullback), HOT (Starwood Hotels), HGG (similiar to CONN/BBY). Also CZZ if it can hold a pull back/consolidation.
5-Oil/Gas of note: BCEI, HERO, TTI, PTEN, IO (IO and HERO have earnings late in week - many of these firms like GEOS, DWSN have had nice earnings beats (they are sesimic & other service type outfits); Refiners: WNR, ALJ, TSO, VLO. Last I looked the integrated names (e.g., XOM, COP, RDSA, etc) look terrible as does many of the straight produces (like EGY - which a smaller cap name thta trades at $6).
6--Selective Fertilizer/equip names: CAT & AGU. MOS, POT technicals need to improve. CF afrter very nice run looks to be correcting. Relaated names like MON and DE look to have not finished their consolidation (which may turn into a correction).
I will try to rfine this later - just thought itwasn't a bad idea to put this out while thinking about it.
Embedded Stochastics & the market
FYI to board:
1--I just mentioned in a post to Glen -- I thought the stochastics we are seeing are explaining a lot of why we are seeing this extended bull trend technically with only modest 1-2 day pull backs.
2--I wrote up this for another purpose but had this board and Ahsan's smarttrader in the back of my mind when I put it together (I mentioned this type of technique awhile back).
3--In this particular write-up. I used 2 stocks that I had a disagrement on with someone (regarding why I 'might' enter EMKR and not enter TASR. I lucked out in some senses...I wrote this on the weekend, TASR is still floundering some, and EMKR popped today nicely (but not sure reason why - I was gone all day). Otherwise we are seeing a similiar phenomenon in the market indices similar as I outline briefly for EMKR. The difference being that the indices are now teetering a bit on the 80 stochastics level and if they dip below, then we likely will see more sideways to down move short term in the markets).
----Also, and more to the point, until the market starts acting like TASR is (with daily stochs weakening below 80), then I would generally expect mild corrections of a day or 2. If the daily gets under 80 for a projected period - then the correction could be 5-7 days. Now when a stock (or indice) stays under 80 for a projected time and heads to 50 or below, then I would at that point start to expect longer and longer correction times as that occurs (and this will also tend to drag down the weekly and monthly stochs as well also giving a clue as to wheteher a stock or index is entering a more bearish phase or trend. See below for EMKR vs TASR input on this--
Embedded Stochastics – EMKR & TASR quick study (as an example)
As an introduction---
This is a powerful technique at times & comes from several folks prior to me…. Many like myself have done extended studies on this type of phenomenon and use it quite a bit with other technical measures.
I tend to use 9/10 and 200 ema will add 13, 20 sma and others depending on stock. I also use fib lines, CCI, ADX, OBV, MACD depending on situation. So this is an added measure I use to understand the risk with entry/exit on the market/stocks and whether to buy swallow pull backs or wait for a more extended pull back to re-enter a position to the long side.
In realtion to embedded stochastics and the overall idea for ‘buying pressure’ is that if stochs go above 80 for at least three periods and continues afterward – then there is buying pressure which can persist for long periods of time.
On the converse, if stochs are below 20 for three consecutive periods or more, then there is selling pressure.
This condition persists until at some point it breaks in coming days/weeks. I have seen where it can frequently go for weeks – even a couple of quarters… in some cases I’ve seen it go for years. In those situations if you want to use stochastics for trading ‘blips in the stock,’ then you can ‘retune’ the stochastics for that particular stock.
As an aside:
You can fine tune the parameters you use on specific timeframes to get the ‘20 to 80’ roll everyone likes to see – but that does take some added effort and you have to do a specific study on it that can last a an hour or more to get the stock tuned appropriately). Generally you are good to go after that. Otherwise one element I’m leaving out that the use of MACD is helpful for anticipating these situations, but that takes a little more explanation that I have time for here.
Now onto EMKR and TASR (as any interesting way to understand how this tool is used to assess the persistence of buying or selling pressure).
First let’s look briefly at EMKR (its really the easier case for this example):
EMKR is showing persistent buying pressure on the daily, weekly & monthly. The quarterly is trending nicely like we normally in the normal 20 to 80 range.
The daily is showing almost unabated buying pressure on daily (note stochs since Jan 18 to Feb 1 at continually above 94-95% level). On that timeframe…for those of that follow this technique, you generally will look to buy all pullbacks until the pattern shows signs of cracking.
Now let’s turn to the case of TASR.
As a caveat I really like this chart longer term – I just see this as a normal correction that TASR is having – so my input here is more as a contrast to EMKR currently as an example. Where TASR settles and then continues its moves up – well I don’t know.
My sense is that TASR has more of a sideways to down move to come – but we will see – ‘cause when it turns back up it should do well.
At any rate, note the persistent buying pressure as measured this way in Oct/Nov (stochs were unusually high for an extended period – note how well and almost predictable the chart was at times in terms of upside bias).
See that after this time frame that then it was struggling some – then it started trending more at 50 …then last 3 periods or so Jan 28 the stochastics had a precipitous breakdown that has not recovered as yet.
As a matter of fact, Zacks sent out a bulletin the other day saying TASR entered ‘oversold’ at 13.38. This statement would tend to lead you to believe that TASR is at or very close to a buy.
However, in my use of tool when I see this type of breakdown in stochastics I really have to see a definitive break toward and above 20 that lasts for consecutive days. It then needs to crest (and not be overly repelled at the 50 level and then grab 80 again…then hopefully head for that 95% area). I expect TASR to do this again – and perhaps it will do so into and after earnings on Feb 18.
Note the 5-6% short interest in TASR – not too bad since that often is enough to generate a decent short squeeze right prior or just after earnings. When short interest is too high – it can work better for longs…however, often if there are many hedge funds and the like in the stock they have a vested interest in piling on every time the stock climbs into upside resistance (that is one reason at times why short squeezes work and why they don’t).
Right now, notice that after the Zacks alert that TASR’s stochs continued to trend down and now is below 10 (by the way under 10 and a stock then trends in the 5 area for extended periods of time are often the biggest losers).
My expectation at the moment is TASR has more correction to go (sideways to down) based on my use of this tool.
We could see a dip that may be contained to just under its current channel (also note that current channel is nearly the same as if you drew a trend off the Oct 25 high and grab the low of marvelous gap up (with stellar volume).
So TASR may very hold right here with perhaps a briefly violation of current channel. However, it needs to bounce – & the fact that it is struggling for more than a couple days off of these key areas gives some concern or added risk to idea TASR correction not quite over for a few more days.
As a summary (if I didn’t cover it adequately:
Note the Monthly stochastics so far is good (just over 75-80 it looks like), but the weekly has taken a slight turn for the worse – but okay if it can hold 65-70 area and then bounce back.
So in this way of looking at things, TASR is good on Monthly, mixed on the weekly (but can recover, but needs to somewhat soon), and on the daily it’s not good at all – but there is nothing desperate here on TASR – just the idea that there is added risk on re-entry for a trade up until we more information.
And this is just another perspective. If TASR rocks in a few days, then the stochs will either show sustained buying pressure or hopefully return to a trend that moves from 20 to 80 like many like to see on most stocks that the trade.
Currently, I’m tending to lay odds that TASR needs a test of the mid $7 area in comings days (or week or so).
To avoid that type of test of these levels TASR needs a good, powerful move in this area of 8.25-50 with perhaps a brief violation (this will correct the downward move that I’m seeing in buying versus selling pressure on some time frames for TASR. That bounce or move though needs to be sustained through a decent part of Feb (and really needs to get back over 8.60 and get going into or close to $9. If not, TASR likely will continue the correction into March.
Obviously this is not a perfect tool at times, but very, very instructive if used correctly. I use it to largely mitigate risk on entry/exit, etc for short to long term trades.
Glen:
I was looking at those values (1520, 1550 or push through to 1570) for potential modest corrections.
Most of these corrections really aren't lasting long and that usually goes along with a very bullish trend (that I think will continue for another couple of months). I'm expecting a 2-5% correction - perhaps a bit more in late Feb/early March.
This is one of the more bullish trends we have seen when looking at how healthy stochastics are.
I have soemthing I wrote u on EMKR vs TASR the other day on embedded stochsatics and will try to post to board a bit later (much of that idea can be transferred to what we are seeing in terms of the bullish trend we are seeing the indices).
Been tied up with kids and their school of late, so not posting as much (and actually was really sick with a nasty auto-immune problem over past few months..got really weak, but feeling better know even though not quite entirely out of the woods).
Will try to post a few other thougths in a bit. Mike
James Monroe Kurtz and the road (less traveled)
sd--
thx for providing the link to BTs memorial site. I posted my thoughts which I provide below.
"I'm reviewing some of the guest comments. Many of the individuals that I’ve read here I’m well acquainted with. They are all stellar individuals which I think is a great tribute to our lost but not forgotten Friend.
I must say I'm having a hard time fighting back the tears. So I had to stop for a bit and collect my thoughts. Very emotional.
I love the comments that I’m seeing about this remarkable individual that many know as James Monroe Kurtz and many know as ‘BT’.
He embodies all the great richness, as well as the modest fallibilities that many of us have. He had a great gift for his craft, but more importantly a big heart for all that encountered the same road that he traveled.
He provided us over the years with great wit, sarcasm, but always sage advice, but more importantly, friendship, and at times great stewardship in our own quest along the road.
He provided Friendship for those that he did not necessarily know very well, but he always held out an extended hand nonetheless. He even went out of his way in that regard to meet each and everyone one of us on the path we were on.
So great an individual that many may not know – but those of us that had the great pleasure (or may I say ‘gift’) are honored just by knowing him in some way. Many like me never met him in person, but were moved by his passion as he wrote and as he spoke. More importantly, those that he touched knew him for the great and gifted warrior in life that he was.
I miss him terribly, oh so terribly.
Loving regards, Michael Reid McManus"
spdpro
Thx, unexpected but nice. I was trying to post a message on his memorial and just needed to say a few things first..the tears were coming a bit faster than I could hold back. At any rate, thx for all that you have and others that are supporting your efforts to carry on his legacy (as well as you own talents). Its much appreciated. Even though I haven't been around for awhile, I think of BT often as well many folks like you, Jerry, Ahsan, Big, haha, often -- so many folks I can't remember/name them all - all very \good quality stuff with a lot of heart.
Over Cliff - Well at this moment it looks like we go over the cliff. That could change over the weekend if Obama and Boehner work hard to come to agreement.
The problem is that it takes approx a week to move legislation through both Houses of Congress. As Rep Boehner absorbs tonight's no confidence vote, he then has to recover, find a new way to move forward and at same time put legislation into the grinder by 27 Dec, Congress has to work like a fiend for 3-5 days after that to aviod the cliff. This can all be done. But the markets I think will get very jittery here as we get into some significant resistance levels as they attempt to challenge older highs
NOTE: In most respects I'm providing this post as a tribute to BT, who loved the idea of combining technicals and fundamentals in a coherent way (with always the acknowledgement that Technicals rule first and foremost). Plus this allows me to bleed out much of the welling of tears that I have at the moment...
So here goes -
First I provide some modest technicals and a bit more extensive fundamental take. But again, I think the technicals really have to rule first - you use fundamentals more in a sense to mitigate risk associated with how to evaluate certain critical decision points in technical analysis. But care always neds to be taken in this type of approach since one can always be remarkably biased in fundamental assessments. ALSO, the markets do believe that a deal will be done - even if we have to get to Jan 4-6 to do it - so that likely makes any 'dire predictions' on the fiscal cliff a bit of a red herring. That siad I will provide some insight as I see it on what is going on, but this junk is subject to change all the time and I like many others believe the GOP and and Dems are trying to do the best they can with a bad deck dealt to them by us, the American electorate....
Technicals (with some Fundamentals)
The dollar and TLT 'looked' to put in a bottom recently. Looking at the the two candles on the US dollar (.dxy) over past two days and oomparing that to mid October -- well, it looks to me like we put in a double bottom for now on the dollar. However, I had looked at the euro as now trading in a range of 130-134.75. But when reviewing the chart, their is some resistance right here in a complex topping pattern (e.g., generally speaking when I refer to that I'm thinking of the great chart pattern guy, whose name escapes me (Bulkowksi?....) I'm ashamed - I should know that more easily since I've read and re-read a couple of his stellar books on Chart patterns.
At any rate, this market looks strong, the fiscal cliff is likely getting in the way, but there are soem natural 'complex' topping patterns that I'm seeing - these are largely modified head and shoulders patterns when looking back over a few years - e.g. intead of having one L & R shoulder and a head -- you often have multiple shoulders and sometimes 2-3 heads when looking back over a long tern weekly.
Fundamentals
The problem is that the GOP essentially gave Boehner a 'No Confidence Vote' tonight on what can be best described as a wimpy attempt to show he had support for some tax cuts (and thus had a viabl negotiating tool with the white house and Congressional Democrats.
The GOP will not agree to raise taxes without substantial spending cuts (for good reason I think...).
Plan B appeared to offer no significant tax cuts (many in the GOP have posited that Obama in some respects has offered more on this front).
Bottomline:
I hate to agree with Sen Reid, but the House under Boehner's leadership wasted an entire week on this Plan thing...
Rep Boehner really has the toughest job here. I think he is trying. He has some smart folks in his caucus, but also some folks that are wildly out of tune with political reality, fiscal responsibility, are overly aligned with special interests (yes, they all are in Congress, but the House has been the home for the last few years of almost legalized graft to support at times wildly ideological views (remeber the K Street Lobby a few years ago...).
Its coming home to roost in a big way.
That said, the really sad thing her is that the Democrats in some senses have wanted to go over the cliff, but now the GOP is being pummeled by it.
IMHO, I think the reason is that by always signing or pledging their rights away to special interests on K Street and various other big pit pulls in the world of propaganda politics, they have literally ceded there ability to legislate coherently as a group.
That said, there is still time. But despite that, we have a market that seems to be pushed up continually into the end of this year on 'Holiday Volume' -- However, we may actually see some 'Abby Normal' volatility for the Holidays. I'm not sure that I'm expecting wild swings - just a bit more volatile than normal for a Christmas week. So I think we are in the territory of a decent market short, but need to be prepared to turn right around and go long again.
Thanks for your indulgence of this post (if got this far...)
Very Respectfully, Mike
Oddlot some comments:
'...historically, the first year of the Presidential cycle is not pleasant....
Comment:
Quite often the first year of a GOP Presidency not bad since many US centric investors believe that regulations will decrease that & that GOP will be more favorable to business, their profits, etc. That's not always clear when looking at history, but that is often the sterotype and often becomes a self fulfilling prophecy regardless of facts. So likely if Romney wins then we get a nice uptick in that sentiment.
As a for instance, Bush as I remember did pretty well initially, but got into a lot of trouble as confidence waned, financial crisis took root,etc.
But initially there seems to be a nice uptick for GOP candidates initially (but over time it appears to even out and Democrats and GOP do about the same in terms of performance as time goes on (e.g., Dems seem to to better later in their terms given all the negative sentiment initially in their term).
Regardless, none of this is perfect, but over the course of a four year term for Dems or GOP there is little data to suggest that one does better than the other. So most of this is hype (but I think you do see some effects early on in a GOP presidency that then damper over time.
Regardless of who is President...once the regulatory and business environment is known for a given time, businesses adapt quite nicely (could it be better at times? Of course, but actual definition of the environment is most important...once the playing field is known then businesses can navigate...but of course most of us want the playing field to be as friendly to business as feasible and dems and gop need to work on that more over time instead of bickering all the time about who is the most patriotic....).
...they (business) can deal with either party (its just a matter of picking what sectors will outperform for the GOP vs the Dems -- they are different and you can see how the market reacts when they believe one party is in favor versus the other.
"....This time, it will probably be horrific."
Comment:
Everyone says that if their particular party or view is not in favor at a particular time.
However, I am concerned here, that the 'horrific' part here is that you have an intransigent tea party against a now irresistible force of Democrats that are embolden against many recent miscues of some of the more ill informed from this new tea party (many though of which I think are doing a good job within the tea party ranks -- just we are seeing a lot of really unfortunate comments and the like from some of the worst nuggets in the group and the Democrats are making good hay against them).
So this is not a good thing, but a clash here is inevitable unless one party wins outright and can absolutely control the agenda.
Neither party though when in control has shown the gonads to get what needs to be done when they are in absolute control. We have big gov't GOP versus big gov't democrats and the recent 'dialogue' hasn't seemed to show that either side is ready to get rid of its more socialistic tendencies in that regard.
I don't see that changing as yet and does seem to be getting worse.
And....Once the markets decide this is the case and start to raise interest rates in earnest....then we might see the GOP and Democrats get the necessary gonads to make good decisions...but its a tough go I think until something comes along that is bigger than all the stupid__ass rhetoric that they all seem intent on purveying on all of us. However, this likely will take many months to play out.
"....Mkts look approx 6 months out."
Comment:
I find this suspect...Often the markets will do this...but quite often the markets are like dumb blondes and do the stupidest things in front of all contrary evidence that they should have done the opposite...
'...Many smart folks who looked further out lost their shirts by being "early" even though eventually correct. IMHO six months from now, a new congress/senate will be in session and hopefully Obama is not there.'
Comment:
I've been watching data on these elections of late (and somewhat a student of this type of analysis). Obama is doing quite well, despite all the national socialistic rhetoric creeping into GOP rhetoric these days. He leads in most of the decisive states that he needs to carry, but until GOP and Dem conventions over.... we won't see how the unengaged independents will vote going into later stages of the election. So jury out here despite Obama lead. Still too close to call in my view.
Regardless, Its a tremendous assault of rhetoric we have seen and Obama forces have decided that they will not be 'swift boated' like Kerry was in their view -- so they have gotten equally as nasty it seems. That to me throws an added wild card into the mix since the democrats aren't lying down in the face of this (and GOP as well).
'...As one pundit said, the can is too big to kick any further, and the medicine will be painful.'
Comment:
GOP and Democrats are not willing to face this and have been terrible in proposing specific spending cuts, rev increases and restructuring of tax code to fix the problems. Likely not to change much unless both parties have a 'come to Jesus moment' and do what is right for the country or alternatively one party clearly wins both houses out right and finally on the hook to take their foot out of their mouth and perform finally for the people. I remain doubtful that a party in total power will do the right thing by the American people....
'..... Homeland Security did not buy all of those hollowpoint bullets in order to politely ask folks with pitchforks to move along, nothing here to see. '
Comment:
I Don't understand this one. I worked for Homeland Security during Bush Administration, and not quite sure what is meant by this. But guessing it is a non sequitur or just an 'add on' to discussion of little consequence to earlier points you made.
'....Mkts trade up, and cascade down. When it starts in earnest, dont buy anything for a long while.'
Comment:
Some have said that first term Democrats have the best market in their 3rd year of office. I haven't verified that. But often makes sense given the general level of hostility that many have towards Democrats in their first year (I remember for instance, many die hard GOP saying they were leaving the US with their money and recommended their clients do the same when Clinton became President). He like many before him followed many of same policies of previous administrations (e.g., continued expansion of Globalization and Trade policies, etc). Many said same about Bush on the liberal side and same said of Obama of course when he took office. Obama took office in Jan 2009. We saw a dip into March 2009 and ever since we have have seen a trend up the markets.
Points is on all this of course...
we need to rely on technical measures to gauge the market. If we are always listening to rhetoric of the political parties we will never make any money. Despite all of the really nasty rhetoric, the market ignores that junk over time (i.e., yes you can see some effects of this rhetoric at times but it tends to dampen out over time).
Much of this is attributable to the fact that some may believe Clinton/ Obama are Democratic Socialists to the point of marxists and Bush/Romney are National Socialistic types to the point of fascists in the Hitler/Goebbels model....
...the markets after some screwing around on these stupid_arse ideas tend to get it right over time and dampen out all that goofy rhetoric and then the markets tend to perform like they are supposed to.
After all the bashing of the US over past few years, its likely that we will see the markets generally trade up.
Howevwer, in the shorter term...the most nasty of the politicians are now on vacation and will return at end of August so once these malcontents get back from their plush vacations and renew their tirade against the US and its values...then I think we will see the marekts suffer in the short term since it will remind all of us that none of these ingrates are serious about Country....let alone fixing the ballooning deficits over past 11 years.
So when those boo birds come back into town in late August/Early Sept then I would expect the markets to get a bit ugly.
Once we get through the elections...hopefully some of the nut bags will be defeated, & we will get some statesman back into Congress.
Not sure that I'm hopeful there...but again over time the markets after some wild gyrations will likely get it right, things will dampen out and uptrend will resume despite the rich set of bozos we have engendered as Congressman over the past couple of years.
At any rate, I find most of this anti-america stuff over past couple of years or so about our demise and the like to be a bunch of chicken little's that drive most of us crazy, but over time the markets will get it right and dampen out all these nut bags as well. So again, better to watch the technicals of the market and not worry too much about heading for the hills on most of the goofy rhetoric we here ever day going into the election in November.
OT: Colorado Springs Fire (& Waldo Canyon/Pikes Peak)
FYI.
http://photos.denverpost.com/mediacenter/2012/06/photos-waldo-canyon-fire-near-garden-of-the-gods/38318/
For those interested in Pikes Peak Region there are some representative photos of the fire that started out of Waldo Canyon & Pyramid Mountain area of Pikes Peak Region (covers Teller and El Paso Counties)
Winds turned against the city yesterday, and came back across from Teller County into more populous El Paso County/Colorado Springs Area.
Denver Post link above has 227 photos. Some are very vivid on Mountain Shadows area on Western edge of City. The whole area around 'Garden of the Gods' was evacuated. Portions of USAF Academy too. Manitou Springs was allowed to go back the other day since the fire turned into the larger part of the county and northeast of downtown Colorado Springs. Not sure if any pictures are available of the area where Flying W Ranch burned down yesterday. Some areas they can't get into right now. KKTV has some decent links for seeing some of the current hot spots.
Otherwise, whole city smells like charcoal or like you had a campfire going in yard for days.... Many out here like us don't have air conditioning (it’s so dry here that often swamp coolers are better anyway), so many houses are 'bottled up' during the stiffing heat we've had.
We're running cool room humidifiers and fans round the clock to help us and kids with breathing, give some comfort and the like.
The light rain we got an hour ago helped some but not enough to do much except provide some relief. I turned on the swamp cooler briefly during the brief rain. But rain has stopped so cut it off 30 mins ago or so -- however there is at least some much needed cloud cover for now.
Projected that it will take 2 more weeks for the 800 plus firefighters to get a substantial containment of the fire. Really incredible the last few days (since Saturday at noon) to see significant sections of Pikes Peak ablaze from our back deck and front porch.
OT: MIPS
Some thoughts on MIPS. Its a buyout candidate like DGIT and a few I've mentioned previously (FIO, RAX, but DGIT and MIPS have been more forward it looks like that they hired GS to investigate such possibilities.
At any rate, MIPS had interesting action today - MIPS tagged 200 ema and has had a decent day afterward. Overall daily technicals like stochastics showing some upturn in buying pressure, but nothing to go to the bank on yet. I do like the action here though from a technical standpoint, especially since MIPS has seems to be bottoming along a very long term moving avg and technicals are turning up modestly.
The talk today about Google Ipad type device may help these stocks as well (although thinking NVDA will be helped the most).
I may do a bit of research on some of the details on various Google and other android offerings that are coming up to see what they may say about MIPS, ARMH, NVDA, etc.
Overall, I think all these firms will benefit given the demand for these type products. And, like MIPS prospects here among the several firms that are contributing chips to this portion of the consumer market. Mike
3 drives pattern link & history (just happen to have article so googled the link for it so copied it below).
Intro--
Larry Pesavento among many others I think have various derivations off of classic 3 candlestick patterns. The drive pattern has a bit of a different look since its based more on a 5 wave pattern to start with, so not as true to the 3 white soldiers pattern as a for instance that Nison would talk to too.
At any rate, I always found the 3 drives down or up pattern to be an interesting thing to keep track of -- so glad Jerry brought it up here.
Here is link to pdf file that Larry wrote back in approx 2007-08 I think. It was in the Traders Journal, Vol 3, Issue 11 (date looks to be Nov 2007 on the article) -- hopefully that gives folks the right google criteria if you have a hard time accessing the link I post below:
http://www.tradingliveonline.com/free-articles/TLO-Trading-Tips-Traders-Journal-3-Drive.pdf
Note:
A very interesting read and concept. It does have a lot of heritage associated with 3 gaps up and the inevitable 'exhaustion gap' as well as other 3 day patterns. But it is its 'own animal' and only related to those other patterns (its not the same and I ...so just want to make sure that I don't imply otherwise...these are all kind of similar animals in a sense, but have different characteristics to keep track of... and well worth doing that I think). Mike
Oddlot, of course may not have this right (and I agree with you still that commodities may have to go lower here). so just putting forth an serious, analytical opinion that bounce coming even if a bit awkward as we work into end of this week.
Also, although not sure I agreed with Jerry on the 3 drives down post he made, but like that he just sticks it out there, provides some clarification on his thinking etc l(my disagreement was that we already saw a recent 3 drives up and down on the weekly and monthly charts and I think we are just seeing derivation of a pull back here on low volume into substantial support. So just don't see that recent action supports the 3 drives down thesis on the daily charts. At any rate, Jerry's been doing for the last several years and I really like that he does it and provides some support for his arguments that are often compelling to say the least. .
I still can find my damn glasses so apologies for the blurry eyed misspells I made in this post and a couple of previous posts...
By he way, I have a neat little paper and think I have the link for it for the Larry Pesavento paper on the 3 drives down technique. Will look to pass a long in a bit as a response to Jerry's earlier message.
In the meantime, kind of enjoying how the Doors did the split stereo sound on Love her Madly... I know for purists of the Doors that this is one of the songs that they think is the most dorkiest of all their songs. Well, I disagree and I'm not a purist of course but I just like how they did the split stereo version of this song...sounds nice on iTunes with my Bose speakers......remixed/remastered versions sometimes dork that interesting technique up. Otherwise, purists can go to hell I think....
VIX still showing buying pressure taking over.
This is a bit long and wordy. Regardless, I think sdpro mentioned the other day his appreciation for some of us tracking it. As well, rotor mentioned he thought vix was petering out (or had blew its wad).. tend to agree. Generally speaking I look at 18 as the first level that is critical that indicates that selling pressure is increasing. On top side any move and hold over a substantial moving avg (recently the 200 ema was held for a few days)...but more importantly a ramp from 25 into 28 and a hold for a few periods over that indicates substantial fear that is sustained and generally points to more volatile action to downside than upside. We say that recently bu vix couldn't actually take and hold over 28. Since then we have seen a gradual retreat from those levees.
And, for now what I'm using as a benchmark is the 18 level to get concerned but really the 20-21.50 level to indicate that selling pressure may continue ramp up (unless I see a quick fade of those levels).
Generally speaking, as we move into July 4 we are showing a general relaxation of these fear measures.
As well, the more times you revisit TLT or VIX at recent highs and it doesn't become increasingly aggressive...well then the interest in the fear trade is generally subsiding.
That is what I'm seeing.
So like a few weeks ago I advocated fading all rallies...I'm more inclined now to fade all sell offs. Temporarily, the sellers are exhausted, bears have lost some power..so they need to recharge and we need to see whether they can get going again after July 4 holiday and into August.
Again though...as we all know, if we see any unabated ramp up of negative trading volume or sentiment indicators then that will be a trigger to go sell side or be more aggressive and go short.
Hope you folks that follow Elliot (and yes I need to get more smart here..), and other wave theory (like Dave Elliot and others) can confirm my take here...but that is just what I'm seeing as I write this (and this really doesn't seem not too different from last year --- except that market reversal into a modest to sustained upside move seems to be occurring a tad earlier than last year).
So right now I'm modestly to heavily (at times) leaning the opposite direction and fading sell offs and selectively buying dips (and I was quite the opposite a few weeks ago like many others).
So until I get data that suggests otherwise...then I will follw this plan for now.
---By the way...stocks like HAL (tested 200 ema on Monthly I think) and others look like we should be watching for substantial bottoming activity in next 2-3 weeks in energy. We don't often get a move like this to watch a substantial bottoming process in a sector like energy (and perhaps the miners)..so advocating that we get 'more eyes' on this sector and potential trade.
OT: Note---
That said, this time of year can always surprise, and the market could crunch lower despite what I think I'm seeing.
So any contrary thinking or analysis to consider will be helpful (again, I don't care whether you are or I get it right -- its about making money and if you catch something I missed or you fill in a critical hole for all of us...then I will be very thankful for that type of exchange).
At any rate, I need to really do more analysis here..just been too tied up addressing & replacing the roof of house, the damage to cars over recent golf ball plus size hail and now we have a immense fires we are looking at on the mountain.
So I'm pre-occupied. But no excuse. Regardless, even if I wasn't pre-occupied I'll get some of my analysis incorrect anyway...
So I try to look to you guys to give me and others a different perspective on how to think about 'what I think seeing.' Also my apolgies, I misplaced my glases 'again' I have some astgmatism...so may have mucked up soe of input here... Mike
XLF powering into gap down from Friday. "Powering" may be an overstatement, but given how wimpy XLF has been the late day action here above 14.10 and then into 14.14-15 shows that financials intent on eating that gap away for now. Usually once this starts, yous ee at least a 50% give back of that gap down (but generally the whole gap in time goes away. Top of gap down area on Friday was approx 14.30-35 area. My general take, is that it will be bullish for the market if XLF takes and holds the 14.25-50 area. Any substantial erosion into those upper levels likely means that the markets will retest recent highs (and thinking really that the recent highs will be exceeded
re: Oddlot, Thx for comments on SSO.
My sense is similar (whether right here or in a day or or two).
Interesting for instance to see that XLF holding near highs of the day after a mid morning test of $14, and appears to be trying to eat into the gap down from Friday.
IYR looks strong...and in the environment, IYR (due to interest rate differential and modest improvement in real estate is doing fine (so to speak).
IYR and Qs have tended to be a leader in this type of market. And, now XLF not looking as bad as one would think.
VIX to me showing that in short to mid term gradual buying pressure coming in (and bears don't have enough power here to fight it). TLT was unable to take yesterday's highs.
So we could trade sideways to down here despite this, but most indicators showing that most of the selling pressure is abating as we work into end of week and into the proverbial 'Holiday trade' which generally points to the idea that you never short a dull market.
This market is increasingly looking like that (dull)...so still could take a few hours or a day or two to develop fully, but signs look 80-20 to be pointing to traders increasing closing shorts, getting ready for holidays, and that trade more likely to go sideways to up soon.
That said, if we see the opposite or negative volume ramps up...then that will say a lot about the market and that a fair amount of downside still to come in shorter term (I'm just not seeing enough indicators to point that way).
AAPL struggling here, broke key level intraday that i watch 570-71. Needs to recover that level for mkt to get its mojo back intraday...
re: Yes thx for follow-up. As well (and I think in line with what you are looking at - is that friday's (espcially options ex) can be the sell off day. Hope I got that right (based on your earlier comments...)
thx...GDX, NUGT seem to be doing what they normally do here...show a modest sign of strength, then act like they will fail next day, but on somewhat low volume. Took a quick look at IAU. ALl said, indicating that likely putting in some type of bottom, just need to finish out this test, then retest of the top of the previous sell-off and reversal candles. Overall like the action, but I always find it a bit troublesome. Guess, I've seen this pattern often (and know what to look for it it fails). We'll see. But agree, you do have to be available type watch this trade. By the way-- looks like to me AUY and GOLD still two of the better acting stocks in the group (of mid major to majors).
AEM, GG, SLW, FCX doing okay, but really would like to see them going more to see if the rotational trade into miners will actually happen as I think it will.
Haven't looked too much at the smaller caps...did take a peak at a few of them -- of those so far RBY looking interesting on daily chart. It was more mixed when I took a look at VGZ, NG, NGD, GSS, PGZ (not great but like a couple of the smaller caps seem to be tracking 50 sma of late). Have a few more to look at. Oh looked at EXK, one of my favorites. I think it needs to pull back a bit more -- say into the May 7 or May 16 action. EXK at approx 8.20. A pull back into 7.50-7.75 would be good (if it violates 7.90-95 area).
If I see others technically improving at a better rate as I do more review, then will look to pass along.
Could take another day or two, but looking at GDX and the like printing close to a bullish engulfing candle depending on finish today (bit vol not impressive).
On your chart..that doji on GDM is what I always look to trade against -- so a low volume pull back into or near the top of that doji candle is almost always a decent buy on commodities and related stocks. SO went long NUGT earlier in day. May have to wait a day or two. But like the setup (although not perfect) and may lose a couple of pennies if tomorrow or next day trades down a bit. I think it won't trade down a whole lot, so stop was fairly straight forward on this and willing to take the risk that we are getting to a logical bounce area.
XLE (DIG, ERX, XOM, COP, CVX, VLO, etc
Just finished putting this together for someone else. But just looked at Monthly on XLE and set up looks compelling for entry here soon. Here is input I provided (and may be a tad 'time late' at this point since XLE now trading over $62):
'I went ahead and Pulled up monthly on XLE.
Monthly 100 sma on XLE at 57.75-80 area. Right now at $61.75 and 50 sma looks to be approx .50-.75 above that at $62 and change.
If XLE finishes above $62 or so today or retakes tomorrow the moving avgs I pointed out, then likely its good to go for XLE, ERX, DIG (or names like XOM, CVX, COP, HAL (Near its 200 ema on Monthly so may be good anyway).
Actually thinking the pure refiner play like VLO (Valero), may be the best stock entry. Refiners (as well as the integrated refiners/exploration stocks) do well as Oil plummets after having ramped up so much on speculative activity like we have seen over past several months or year or so.
VLO has actually one of the more interesting refiner charts (likely WNR a lot better - Western Refining).
At any rate, if going for the quick 'leveraged trade' bounce off of oversold levels then looking at DIG at $35 and ERX in this 31-32 area.
UWTI, UOIL (3x trades on Oil - UOIL is brent - but they aren't very liquid and others likely better to look at here).
So wouldn't recommend those even though I do trade them here and there...just happened to notice that charts look to be setting up a reversal so points to Oil and related stocks ready to finish bottoming pattern and setting up for a decent bounce that likely will last for awhile (after a few 'fits and starts')."
Qwik, In support of bullish case--
.VIX weakening, TLT doesn't look like it wants to go any higher and sliding a bit. Dollar a bit tougher to figure (but not aggressively looking to go higher it looks like).
As mentioned by a couple of us, metals, miners etc not doing to badly early in day and have gotten some traction during day.
IYR (REITs) acting like they want to aggressively go higher here soon on 1 min chart).
All said, the break to me looks like it will be to upside as many have suggested. So if internals I'm seeing hold up (which I think they will, then thinking we see a short squeeze). Thinking you are leaning that way as well, but waiting for confirmation.
Qwik, Jerry: Jerry, interesting tid bit there from Art Cashin...Been thinking of getting the trader's almanac again and tracking such things. Monday's though are really ugly often (then we have turnaround Tues). Qwik...
...Always like your chart among many others here, I must say I always appreciate the thoroughness you go too on your analysis. Always much appreciated. Been trying to do a lot of screening and charting of late, need to collect and consolidate what I've done and pass to board. Put some of it on thesmartrader a week or so ago...but now need to follow-up.
Been busy of late, addressing all the hail damage we got a couple of weeks ago. Golf ball sized hail (and a bit larger a few weeks ago - lasted about 30-40 mins...so been very busy getting cars fixed, getting estimates on replacing roof wtc. At any rate, will try to follow-up on this later, by the way...
Oh...I'm a bit iffy on NXPI in short to mid term (but one of the better stocks out there in the semi space like CRUS, ARMH, NVDA etc so think I know why you like it (by the way all of the 3 I just mentioned are technically weakening in short to mid term - just like them long term like NXPI). Doesn't matter, thx for putting out your thoughts on NXPI... I always take notice of what what you, jerry, ahsan are looking at as well others I've gotten to know here more recently (oddlot, haha, rotor, etc). I do miss hearing from BT & Big (but saw Big's chart on vix several days ago and copied link off..). Thanks, Mike
Miners, Gold, Silver (GDX, GDXJ, NUGT)--
Bought NUGT a bit a go (3x of GDX). Like the action today in AUY (a component of GDX as I remember along with GG, GOLD, AU, AEM, ABX, FCX, NEM, etc). Also, SLV looked pretty good intraday. FCX just always seems to be a buy anyway as it gets into the 29-32 area. Also, South African Miners (AU, GFI, HMY) coming off bottom...they tend to do well when dollar moves higher (due to currency action between Rand and dollar and costs for miners in rand and revs in dollars).
At any rate, thinking that mkt could retrace further into that 1280-85 level; but when miners and metals get a bid then often this is a signal or heads up to pay attention that not a lot more left in market downside at the moment.
As well, we should see some buying into the miners buy funds as we get into late June, early July (and often we get a pop anyway into a holiday like July 4.
Have some modest positions in DGIT & MIPS (the look to be very undervalued and very serious takeout candidates (RAX, FIO in same boat, but don't have a position in those). Note: Of the two, MIPS technically weaker than DGIT... But like the two longer term (and consider them more as investments rather than trades).
Otherwise, watching vix, tlt, dxy to see if they are overdone or if they will pick up some steam later. So far vix looking to me like its extended here but need to see how it finishes out today. Mike
Thx SilverSurfer. I much appreciate the follow-up.
I grew up a southern boy and a jock...I always had to fight that a jock could excel on intellectual items. But to us southern boys being compared to Sheldon is tantamount to 'fighting words' - cause we hate those NY and LA liberals.
But I get that they do a good job on the show and that you were just poking me in the ribs on your comment.
Funny (sometimes scary)how we carry some of these things from our younger days (even though I really try to be much more forward thinking its hard to shed some of these things). So my apologies on all this. And thanks,nice that you took the time and effort on this.
For my part...I tend to be intense analytically so please only take that 'intensity' as an input..I'm truly only trying to get your opinion and some 'give and take' on the item.
Yes if I see something truly stupid then I'm probably as bad as the sarcastic Sheldon on those items. But generally speaking -- not in any sense on my general comments am I trying to show up someone or demonstrate that I have my analysis more right than any others. Its more of an intensity thing I have at times on being focused on the task at hand....
Regardless, I always try to be straight down the line on what I think analytically and I think most here tying to do same and not looking to be proven right.
Actually at times, its good to be proven wrong... Its not about being right here..its really about making money (and hopefully building good longstanding relationships in the process..)
Otherwise, my apologies... So again thanks for taking the time to reply on this particular item. It demonstrates I think the level of character that many of us have tried to build on the board and your follow-on comments are an example of that... M2
BTW on Big Bang Theory
I mentioned its an effeminate show that my teenage daughter watches and just loves.
On the other hand, I get that younger folks than I rally do like the show.
I just come from an older mindset and stuff like Will and Grace gave me the 'heebie jeebies'. Just too gay for me.
So even though I know the Big Bang Theory has a modestly large gay cast and pretends to be not so gay -- well it appears to be a show that is tailored more to gays, young girls as well as to younger folks in 20-40s (both young girls and guys)... I'm of course not in that group, but I do get why younger guys than I might like the show.
I do think its a good show. Just not my cup of tea. As well that Sheldon character seems like a great character actor. I haven't watched much of big bang theory (in fact until last year it just seemed a tad too sleazy to allow my daughter to watch it).
As she has gotten into 16-17 age I've loosened up a bit on that. At any rate, even though character of Sheldon on Big Bang Theory seems to be a flaming gay guy with really acerbic and nasty condescending tendencies.. I wanted to make sure that no one here took my earlier comments against him as a slam against gays. I'm very libertarian here, so even though I may have conservative views on gay marriage and the like..I really think they have been beaten up enough by the christian right.
At this point, the gays have suffered enough at the hands of these folks so at a minimum..I think we really need to move on from the gay bashing thing.
My point is that even though I recoiled terribly to being compared to a more gay show like the big bang theory and Sheldon in particular, I wanted to make sure to pass along that this was more cultural issue on my part and not reflective of folks that watched the show that contribute to the board.
Just given my heritage and culture, I recoiled greatly from that earlier comment made by an earlier poster, but I don't want that to be translated into the idea that I object to gays contributing to this board.
Not sure that the previous poster on this was gay and perhaps he just saw something in me familiar to Sheldon that he liked in me (or not); or, that in a more mean spirited way -- he was comparing to me to a flaming, more insolent gay guy.
Regardless, I know there are a lot of things to like about this Sheldon character despite these stereotypes. So I was concerned that I may have offended some here on my previous response to that post (regarding a comparison to Sheldon).
The actor just seems like a stellar guy and I don't want any of my comments to be taken as a negative comment on his ability as an actor or a person. Mike
re: Silver. Thanks Oddlot.
We seem to be on same page with the metal trade. If I see something that changes my bearish stance on Gold/Silver on indicators and other technical measures that I track will try to post quickly We have some differences here so probably good to compare notes on it).
Right now, its interesting to me that the dialogue among the talking heads on TV and the like is that the Fed is going to not only continue to grease the skids via current program, but even expand into QE3.
The bond and metal market seems to not be buying into that line of fundamental thinking we are hearing from various folks that are talking their 'book' or their politics and the like.
On other hand, we are getting into interesting areas of support on these metals, but internal technicals still look weak to me. So I'm still thinking we go lower on Metals (but miners more resilient mid to longer term I think).
Also, watching how bonds break here in short term. Right now showing a fair amount of resiliency...but seeing a lot of divergences in the short term in other measures(so not sure how all this will resolve). Regardless, appreciate the back and forth on this with you and otehrs on the metal and bond trade.
Geez Silver not sure whether to treat the Sheldon comment as the ultimate compliment or the ultimate slam.
I don't watch the show cause it just seems a bit too effeminate at times for me.
But I know my daughter likes it and she has had it on in the past and we have talked about the Sheldon character now that I remember.
But had to google it to figure out what you were talking about. My daughter has gotten a charge out of (and I can see why).
At any rate, couldn't quite remember and found this quote 'He is vocal about his own superior intellect compared to those around him.'
So are you saying that are you agreeing with my teenager that he is just a funny gay guy with a great intellect and talks down to people or that you just enjoy the character and some of my comments?
At any rate, I hope that was a nice compliment you made (just not one I expected (or can discern).
If not I really hope that over time I've been humble enough to not seem like I'm trying to display some superior intellect over anyone.
At any rate, even if guy is perceived as gay and show largely an effeminate type of show that high school girls like...the character not all that bad I guess.
But really a weird a comparison for what I try to do.
Perhaps I need to re-evaluate what I say and how I post my comments to some of you. Just a tad disturbed by that comment, but perhaps there is something I missing on that. If so my apologies.
SilverSurfer-- on S&P & Silver -- 1 question, 2 inputs for you--
Question: do you have some projected buy points on Silver that you are working too?
Input 1 (S&P):
--The S&P chart you provided a really nice reminder that despite the typical grind we are in, we are actually sporting an inverse head and shoulders. I still expect some whipsaw in the markets as bull vs bear action works out -- but a lot of action points that mid to longer term, bull case will likely take over.
--However, short to mid term we are still in a slog, and likely very nice scalps to short and long side for a bit longer (as a for instance, I'm looking to go selectively short tomorrow or next day...but not looking to be 'all in" on either side of the ledger... At any rate...just liked the chart and thanks for providing to group.
Input 2 (Silver):
--I've been bearish on Silver and looking more to GDX, GDXJ and NUGT as logical buys given that they seem to be overly hammered.
When looking at Silver Chart, the daily tending to indicating decent support at 26-27 level on Silver but so far failing inverse head and shoulders back to late Sept 2011, so may retest support at approx $25 in Jan 2011.
--Also, when looking at mountain type top in April to May 2011 (from $30-48), chart still seems to indicate that this is just too tough of a slog to get through for the short to mid term. So risk that $25 could be violated in time...but not as sure here (a lot can change in a few weeks in the world markets)
--Underlying technicals as well seem to indicate that consolidation in Silver not done (and Copper appears to be indicating same).
-Perhaps other places to look first include Platinum/Palladium, Rare earths and Gold (as it finds lower support).
-At any rate, I cannot find much encouraging about the Silver chart at moment, and thinking it really needs a much better price/vol thrust to upside than we have seen so far to get that trade going again. Given that, I'm looking first to other metals, and the gold/silver miners (and thinking I'll look at going long Silver and Gold as they put in a more definitive bottom or perhaps a nice reversal candle on weekly or monthly. Right now just fining it hard to get a good angle on going long Gold and Silver (other than for very short term scalps to upside)
re: Gold -- Agree.
Caveats--
--Daily stochs showing some continued buying pressure.
--Weekly and Monthly show mixed selling vs buying pressure (but weighting looks to be more on selling pressure).
Also Monthly chart so far looks like a bear flag. Not conclusive, but interesting that everyone optimistic for continued loosening by euro-land and 'hope' that Fed will provide QE3 -- and so far this really is not moving gold to higher highs after a nice move up in markets.
Between bonds and gold (and other commodities) they are tending show a somewhat significant divergence with recent up move in the markets. Unclear to me how this resolves for the market, but as far Gold goes, it needs a big price push to upside soon to override the negative divergences in the chart.
re: UVXY/TVIX- Jerry, Technamental --Looking between end of day, tommorrow pre-market, perhaps after open to take position in UVXY. Its printing close to an inverted hammer today.
Usually we see these vix/vxx trades like this pull back in front of their options expiration (which for vix I understand its tomorrow am. So if form follows her..any subsequent gap down on these type trades tend to be a decent low risk buy point (unless market is poised to rip hard to upside.
VIX actually popped a bit from around 18.25 to 18.60, then retraced to 18.40. Quite often in down days the TVIX, UVXY will trade underneath the days lows in after market. And in pre-market can reach new lows or into first few minutes of trade.
Overall thinking that UVXY getting to a low risk trade in next several hours to long side (as long as we keep a decent stop). However, the better longer trades into UVXY is when vix gets into 14 area (right now at 18). However, given overall nervousness out there, I would expect to see some buying back into vix as protection even though sitting at around 18. At any rate, that is the risk (i.e., generally we would want to a trade into 14-15 on vix for some extended time frame, the indices to logically top and then that would be the great buy.
My thinking here though is considering everything, like a low risk trade, with reasonable stop on UVXY between now and say first 15 mins of trade (but better points could unfold prior to Fed statement tomorrow).
At any rate, vix and related instruments are trading at more extremes (and I think its independent (for the very, very short term)) of any trades in other negative sentiment indicators like TLT, .DXY etc.
Markets as well starting to get into resistance here (that 1357 area on S&P on weekly and monthly normally been a troublesome area on the charts...but I think most of us expected that this level was to be breached to upside (in fact looks like SPX got to approx 1365).
I'm tending to look for SPX to trade into 1375, perhaps a bit more tomorrow (say 1383-85). Not sure it will get there.
Guess point is, looks to me like a fairly low risk trade into UVXY and thinking we can get it just a bit lower here in AH, pre-market or sometime early in the trading day tomorrow am.
By the way, I mentioned TVIX. Sometimes that does work better, but its an ETN and UVXY follows the vix/vxx better from my experience. Good luck, Mike
re: TLT, VIX, etc. Oddlot, saw your TLT chart on weekend. Much thanks. Tend to agree with your take. TLT still showing a fair amount of resilience at 125-126 level.
Otherwise, VIX into options tomorrow has pulled back a fair amount and if holds under 18, then that will support this current swing up just a tad longer. However, with vix options expiration tomorrow and Fed meeting, we may be seeing the end of current down move on vix and getting into a good resistance point to upside on S&P.
As one scenario, I'm working to SPX test of 1375-1383 area as a pull back point on Markets -- and that we may just see that pop up tomorrow say mid day on markets, then a decent scalp for short positions). If so then TLT will have some added traction to upside.
If so, we should see another pop of vix and re-attack of 20-21 area for that indicator. If this occurs...What I'll be looking for is to see if TLT ramps back up over 126-127 level and attempts a re-test of underside of June 1-2 highs (at 130).
At same time, If vix can't get much traction to upside after that in coming days (& move into and beyond 20-21.50) then TLT may just fail there and market track more to upside (and TBT/TMV provide at least a decent scalp or short term swing).
That is short term scenario I'm working too anyway (as a 60-40 proposition).
All said and done:
TLT still showing resilience, indicating a combination of the downside pressure that central banks are putting on longer term rates as well as the 'safety trad'e due to problems in Italy and Spain (10 yr on Spain is still at approx 6.80% to 7%).
This all presents interesting near term divergences as I see it:
1--Markets showing residual strength/ buying pressure despite all the bad news
2--Fear trade (via VIX, TLT, DXY) showing some relaxing here, but TLT showing enough resilience that the downside here doesn't seem to have fully resolved itself as yet in the markets.
Otherwise, took a couple days off here and just haven't done enough work or analysis though to work through the mid to long term on the markets on all this.
That is, the key question to me (for the work I do) -- Are we close (just like last year) to that July 1 where we put in a significant reversal and started trudging to the upside despite in several sectors? Note: But also TLT consolidated then and started to ramp up in August 2011 and made a gradual top in Oct (basically it settled in the 95-100 area in July and continued to move up afterward into 110 and topped into 122-125 area in Sept/Oct. Now we have crested above those levels and TLT still seems to want to maintain just above this area (although seeing some internal measure indicating some weakness in TLT -- but not sure it is enough to pull TLT back at this point or not)
We may not get quite the same action here as last July to Oct... but much of the setup looks the same.
--At any rate, thanks for keeping me in the loop on your thinking and charts on TLT and the like. Will try to clean up my thinking on all this and be a bit more concise in subsequent posts on all this. Mike
re: TLT -- Stockmine saw that too. An obvious divergence. However, note the plunge in the vix - so thinking if we pop Monday morning, then TLT may have precipitous drop.
Otherwise, TLT is a temporary safety trade against the possibility of a nasty plunge...but many of the less nimble traders will get plastered here if vix continues to retreat.
I'm tending to think like you that operation twist will continue (but no immediate move to a so called "QE3". If so TLT may stay stubbornly high and vix pop right back up by end of week (since many traders seem to want the Fed greasing the market despite their objections to it on CNBC..)..
Otherwise, I'm seeing the same divergence as you...Good to stay on this I think since it gives some insight on things happening "underneath the hood" --- But when folks exit TLT, there will be a really awesome trade into TBT, TMV, SBND, etc. Thinking that trade will shape up very soon. Mike