Nice kiy. Agree. Sorry most of the many new and I really must say excellent folks that have recently come to the board don't know me.
For those that don't know me, I tend to be a "blended" technical/fundamental" guy and BT has been trying over time to get me to have more prowess in the technical area (and he will eventually succeed I think cause that is where my predilection is anyway and BT is very persistent of course..)
All that said: A couple of observations (mostly technical I think):
I liked the action today in vix & .dxy (US Dollar) but we could hit more extreme values here before bouncing. As a for instance, the dollar is really weak here overall and just can't get much mojo but it looks to be basing here and ready for at least a blip up.
I'm not convinced yet that we are are on a top of a major correction so please take that into account. I think, for instance that we are seeing the typical "wall of worry" climb in the markets. Look for instance at he many DOW stocks that have been treading water since the incredible sell off in the late 1990s/2000 area.
Overall when looking at technicals and fundamentals. it points to me that we see a continued but almost worm like move up.
The caveats are that we do still have problems to deal with in euroland (and late March may not be pretty here in terms of Greece); and we have Portugal and others. The euro folks so far have proven "it appears" that they are willing to backstop this (and if you don't know I think much of this willingness is due to the idea that over the past 200 years the euro folks are tired of extremist countries in their midst and so they have a vested interest in making this euro concept work.
Okay all that said... It seems to me we are ripe for a pull back here soon - say 1370-75 or perhaps 1420 or so on S&P and say 13,100-200 on dow (but I could see stretch on this). On the IWM looking at these 83 and particularly at 85 levels as resistance for that bigger pullback. Recalling some of this from memory so I hope I got this right.
Overall, underlying technical (Stochs, MACD, ADX, etc) indicating some weakness, but not enough as yet to lead to a big sell off. But close I think to a nice short here soon (and thinking that will be here in next few days or thereabouts. By and large the trend is still up and I'm still respecting that even though I'm tending to get increasingly short as we go higher (but with a good hedge of course). Which so far has worked to keep me out of trouble.
Good luck and I think I need more time to study kit, ziko, ha ha etc inputs and technical charting to feel comfortable to comment. Oh one last thing, this is usually the time of year to go long XLE (ERX short term), and OIH (DIG if 2x leveraged). So buying pull backs on Oil and related stocks/sectors is likely a winner. Next in line I'm thinking are the miners (e.g GDX. GDXJ, NUGT, etc).
