kiy
much thx.
I've been trying to study get acquainted your comments, zikos, etc. Will try to update amy thinking as we go along
Overall, my take is that unless we can see a real flight to safety (that really sells off SPX 10 or so points for a couple of days and Dow a 100 points or so for a couple of days...) then we still are in a short term scalp of the move up via TZA and then quickly reverse and go long again.
The underlying technicals as I read them (of course) are saying that there is persistent buying pressure on any of these pull backs. We should see though a more substantial pull back here in the next half week (chart patterns here indicate we are close to at least a modest pull back and technicals are trying to trend down a tad...).
But until we get a sustained sell off then we all have to keep our hair trigger off on the short trade and just trade it selectively on short scalps to downside.
Now for my part...I'm tending to be increasingly more reticent to go long here for any period and to only trust the pull backs on the indices for only a nominal short side for a scalp (then turn around again and go long).
But that has mixed results (but I have made some money on being long TVIX and TNA). This wasn't necessarily a brilliant move on my part (but it worked over weekend -- when I don't normally carry over 3x shorts/longs).
At any rate, we are coasting from technical basis to new highs, we can go increasingly short here, but have to be very careful and take profits quickly. We will get a very good short here soon, but quite frankly all of these "really good shorts" are very limited in duration which is much like what we saw in 2008 and a few years before (but of course to the reverse).
So my overall take is that we really aren't overbought here by as much as most think...and we are seeing persistent buying action that is stupefying the shorts (and I must admit I tend to be one of the folks that don't believe this move up but of course cover my bets..).
So even though I have a good intellectual take on this situation in the markets (or at least I think I do). I think frequently here of late I'm being duped into at times being overly short in a market that is obviously trending higher despite what any of think to the contrary... Hope that explains some of my thoughts and like i said will look to update my thinking.
Again, I much appreciate what a lot of you are providing of late. I just need to catch up to some degree on some of the technical techniques you guys are using. Mike
