Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Vaccine injury:
Further thoughts FWIW: My operating assumption, given the apparent large increase in reported SIVRA (severe inflammation of shoulder joint (not just muscle soreness) after vaccine) is it's a combination of much more immunogenic vaccines combined with lax shot placement (reminder - I watched my pharmacist argue to inject at joint, not 2 or 3 fingers down). Lax shot placement wouldn't have mattered anywhere near as much when the vaccines were a lot less immunogenic, but now... .
And I don't expect the FDA to do anything about it until it's a scandal because vaccines are now politically coded - eg the CDC and FDA both behaved badly wrt COVID vax (CDC tried to prioritize Black's over elderly (and only reversed when the slides became public), and I watched FDA try to hide children vax data).
FTR - I favor vaccines. Strongly (eg I just got Novavax, will get pneumococcal soon). But no good comes of prioritizing social manipulation over data transparency. However Public Health has moved strongly in wrong direction.
Vaccine shoulder injury
Interest rate cut, China milestones, continued ramp... would all change the calculus. But my personal favorite would be a company in the therapeutic space offering almost the same amount as the original, but for therapeutic alone (because therapeutic owned by a separate company allows a decoupling of the therapeutic/aesthetic prices and thus returns the therapeutic market to something like the size it was under Botox - before Foley destroyed the market by coupling therapeutic pricing to aesthetic and then low-balling aesthetic pricing)
Emannow - any comments on delay in deal?
Options I can think of:
a) Company incompetence - eg key staff fled so now hard to get paperwork done
b) Acquiring company found book cooking at Revance
c) The great sales at end of last Q did not continue - so acquiring company wants to back out
d) A different company decided to make a bid - at the very least to get the price up into reasonable land to make it more difficult for the acquiring company
d2) A therapeutic company decided to make an offer solely for the therapeutic indications and this is likely almost the same amount as the original offer for all of Revance because when therapeutics is separated from aesthetics the value of therapeutics skyrockets (Foley eviscerated the market value of therapeutics by coupling the pricing of aesthetics and therapeutics and then slashing the price of aesthetics. Total market is probably only 30-40% of what Botox had in therapeutics)
My guess is d2 because it's reasonable and would really appeal to Foley's ego - but I don't really have any information on a or c, and while b is possible... so far Foley just appears to incompetent, not unethical per se.
Were i EOLS, or a different player who likely knows the benefit of Daxxy, i wld be scrambling to put together an alternate offer (obviously ABBV almost certainly cannot do this for FTC reasons). Of course the difficulty will be getting the capital which isn't trivial in this interest rate environment (the price necessary to force consideration, despite the RVNC egos, would be high).
RVNC - bad management is the gift that keeps on giving. Buy when you should sell, sell when you should buy (aesthetic cascade uptake was almost certainly starting). Also love the 666 specific price. 😭
Interesting question is whether the deal is so egregiously bad that some major shareholders make a fuss and/or another bidder comes in.
Re: liquidity
Random notes from Conference Call (of things I thought interesting):
1) Foley acknowledged that forehead (ie Frontalis) requires a different injection pattern (more injections)
2) Separately he described that a big component of the "Beauty of Savings" promotion is linking training events to purchases in order to deal with the 'unique profile of the Revance product'. And a big component of these trainings is trainees 'getting to spend time' with leaders in field (I suspect that a lot of this is set up just to allow dissemination of the information about how to inject outside glabellar lines)
3) In response to a question asking 'given what you've seen so far in q3, what should we expect of q3?' Foley answered that he expects sequential growth of Daxxy, but RHA will still show seasonal patterns. (Note - this is a distilled Q and A, so implies a little more intent than readily apparent in the conversation. Nonetheless I think it was an important answer.)
4) The Daxxy revenues include no therapeutic numbers despite the launch in May because the therapeutics providers "buy and bill" to verify reimbursement is happening. So the revenues will ramp more slowly.
5) Effectively stated that Fosun expects approvals later this year for both Glabellar and Cervical Dystonia. And remaining milestones total $222M (but declined to state how milestones are spread)