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Bourbon:
Got tired of the hype and unfulfilled promises while AVXL spent more on admin than R&D.
There was enough $ to run a Ph 3 trial years ago when it was relatively cheap and they didn't even try.
I'm patient and stubborn and hung on for a long time, but finally lost faith and bailed out .I'll buy back in when/if it looks like a successful Ph 3 trial is succeeding.
May you profit grandly however...You certainly deserve it for your loyalty.
Up 17% . Just nailed the patent on our lead immune-onco drug.
"COM701 is a humanized hybridoma antibody that binds with high affinity to PVRIG, a novel B7/CD28-like immune checkpoint target candidate discovered by Compugen, blocking its interaction with PVRL2. Blockade of PVRIG by COM701 has demonstrated potent, reproducible enhancement of T cell activation, consistent with the desired mechanism of action of activating T cells in the tumor microenvironment to generate anti-tumor immune responses. In addition, COM701 combined with antagonist anti-TIGIT or anti-PD1 antibodies has demonstrated synergistic effect on human T cell stimulation, indicating the potential of these combinations to further enhance immune response against tumors."
And we've got at least a dozen more in the works.
I'd happily settle for successful negotiations with the FDA to work to reasonably resolve the reasons for our recent rejection.
The FDA itself has changed management and it's general posture to some degree and could be amenable to reassess our status .
Getting a drug to deal with drug resistant bacteria on the market would be a fat feather in their cap about now. Ours too.
Hi Masters;
I'm in a number of small. cash flow negative companies and generally their SP trajectory is similar this summer. To be expected.
Government funding for bio-sciences is apt to be weak for a few more years and PACB will reflect that with a short sighted, anti-science administration.
This is a long term bet and if it succeeds, it probably won't happen fast.
New lows are an invitation to buy more, of course...grin.
Hi Bourbon:
I was just checking in after i sold out at a loss believing the company wasn't all that serious and was just riding on the dinky but positive early study results.
That you say they STILL aren't in a major, properly controlled, a phase 3 study after all these years confirms my fears and i see the SP reflects that.
Sigh. Good luck!
Excellent. Thanks a second time Paulie.
Good article Paulie: thank you.
I hope we see many other journal articles like this to validate our tech.
Jack; About 1/2 the folks live in cities and a large % of them live in cities where air quality degrades their lungs and shortens lives.
A growing number of cities are imposing pollution controls .
While that's a niche, it's a large and growing one . If we can sell heavy vehicle engines to many of those cities and the businesses that have to operate in them...we'll do just fine.
Presumably, as mfg scale increases, our cost per engine will drop and our affordability will rise to the point where environmentally conscious operators will find us appealing too.
Also, with an unstable mid-east along with many other oil producing nations, and fracking soon to face the costs of wastewater pollution and aquifer contamination...It's very possible that the PPB of oil will rise significantly in the near future. Even without fracking, there's plenty of NG.
So, maybe things at WPRT aren't quite as dire as you paint them.
Jack; Agreed, with the offering at a buck and a half, this can't be the bottom.
I'm no short, never have been, and i'd watch for the bottom to cost average down some.
I think that unless large vehicle battery prices drop dramatically, that public transportation, school busses, very high pollution urban areas, and the like are going to be our exclusive market niche.
Jack; It's unseemly to giggle
when we innocents who pay your maritime upkeep
are in pain~~~~.
Needless to say, Jack is gleefully short
and trying to herd us shareholders into selling at the bottom.
Gotta say, he's been pretty successful.
When i last bought it was near a buck, so a buck and a half is still just fine.
When this stops sinking from the offering, i'll pick up more.
Ferts in general have taken a terrible beating...My old UAN holding is flat on it's back.
You'd think that with all this extra cheap corn, the US could be booze suppliers to the world....grin.
Up on higher corn prices, finally.
Oh CRAB!
Hard to imagine a management team less deserving....Disheartening.
Thanks Johnny.
Another successful Ph 3 clinical trial result...
"The clinically meaningful benefit in quality of life bring a new energizing level of hope to the amyloidosis community around the world, a community whose critical needs have not been sufficiently addressed," said Isabelle Lousada, president and chief executive officer of the Amyloidosis Research Consortium (ARC)."
And again, the PPS sinks 4%!!!!
WTH ?!?!
I wish we had an effective SEC and less parasites gaming the market!
Not gonna happen in this era of deregulation.
But i'm buying more just to spite them. This is a great company with an enormous pipeline.
No, but it's a heck of a lot more available and lots cheaper!
Isn't commercial hydrogen mostly derived from NG?
I suppose i'd have to concede that no internal combustion engine can literally be 0 emissions.
But in an official air pollution context, I thought that was what we were claiming.
Westport -Cummins?
Volvo/Geely is going electric in their cars, dunno about trucks. Tesla is talking about introducing electric trucks.
I see our niche market as the 0 emission engine in school busses and muni busses. Trucks too , in high pollution urban areas, blue states and perhaps Europe.
Is our Chinese deal still alive? China and India both have major urban smog problems.
Qualcom tender offer extended another month, still only have 12% of our shares (yea!) but haven't even upped their offer.
Meanwhile, our independent PPS should be rising steadily as we continue to make deals and alliances. put out new chips, and so on.
With the PPS so low, and the IP so juicy, i could see the temptation, but don't know whether to hope for that or not.
Could we survive long enough to get a drug on the market without it?
Mastiffs;
"Not waiting another year"...Hah!
Do you see any massive, double blind , phase 3 clinical studies
testing our lead AXAL construct against a general cervical cancer population?
That's the one we have the best data and most solid clinical proof on and our best chance at FDA marketing approval. Right?
That would take another 3+ years, at least...Plus the FDA delays...plus...
And we haven't even started....And should have years ago when a ph 3 only cost $100.000 or so. We had the money then.
We can expect ADXS' PPS to flap like the flag in a stiff breeze as more and more deregulation comes online.
With a Wall Street (swamp) guy heading the SEC, more and bigger outfits will be enthusiastically gaming the system.
We can keep a core position and play the volatility with the rest;
or we can just hunker down and wait.
Good for traders, rough on longs.
Well timed ( we hope) and well written DW;
Once we sank below $4, i haven't had the courage to continue to buy down.
Now that our "dead cat bounce" seems a bit more robust and the promise of orders like LA metro and Santa Monica i'm ready to risk a bit more.
As you point out, had i the hair to buy near a buck, i could have doubled that nicely.
Hair in the face of despair, eh?
I've strong reservations about AVXL...Held it for years and became disillusioned.
They seem to be selling hope rather than actually trying sincerely to do the work necessary to get FDA approval.
The clinical study they base their whole show on, is too small to take seriously.
They spend more on admin and employee stock grants than R&D.
I sold out my position a few months back.
Jack, there was some significant news and i think the fundamentals will follow,
if we can execute on those orders.
Gonna bet against you again on this, and hope it works out better this time.
Thanks DW:
LA Metro is HUGE!
That's very encouraging!
Hi DWBower;
Yes, i was too kind RE Ford.
I own 2 old ones now and they are a fine illustration of
"the cheap guy pays the most".
WPRT is staggering on the edge of disaster,
mostly due to the collapse in oil prices.
At your dime a dozen valuation,
predictions are worth slightly less
than what they cost.
We have not quite risen to our knees yet,
but we seem to be lifting our head off the ground.
Taking a beating on a week of mixed news.
We bowed out of 1 phase 3 trial and look good for acceptance by the FDA on another. Those last results weren't scintillating, but beats the SOC.
And there's a whole big pipeline marching up behind those.
Blue, that might have been right 10 years ago or more.
And, isn't the valuation cost now multiplied by 125 (RS)?
I first bought in at $14, pre reverse split, by the way.
Trader, Neo is just barely clinical with a high probability of failure, a probable high cost of treatment and other companies developing neoantigen immuno products. Best case finds it 8 years away from approval.
Our other , more developed constructs should be of much greater value.
Only you traders want a buy out. The rest of us want to cash in on the fruits of our development.
As i recall, they were just awful to work on in an era when repairability was a serious design consideration.
Ford had some serious attitude problems.
~You'd never know that the good Mr Bolander has a historical short interest in WPRT ( and it's really paid off for him)~
Thanks James!
It seems to me that the best strategy would have been to repeat our little 100% success rate trial on a much larger scale, with proper controls to see if we really had something as spectacular as it seemed.
It would have been clean, direct and nearly definitive...and we could have done it out-of-pocket.
If the results were anywhere near as good, we would have been sitting in the proverbial cat-bird seat....dictating our terms.
Instead, we went for a slightly larger study that compromised our prior strength, complicated the question several ways, and produced much more equivocal results.
Thought i read some preliminary ph 2 results from one of the conferences.
Checking back in: Same time, same station i see.
I finally gave in and sold my core position quite a while back.
It was disheartining !
There might actually be something to the science, maybe;
But management jest seems to be hanging in for the salary
and cruelly touting hope for profit.
I'll check back in when they finally complete a large, double blinded, good quality , phase 3 trial acceptable for FDA approval.
Good luck
Catt: If that's successful, then it strips off the vessel patch and promotes bleeding and perhaps strokes.
All the mechanisms involved in the disease aren't clearly understood.
Until they are, it's all too easy to do more damage then good.
There are many other opportunities to successfully apply our platform however.
The thing is, we keep getting distracted and expending scarce resources when we need to be focused on advancing our lead products through phase 3 and the FDA approval and marketing.
Unless we pull that off soon, we will be a helpless, desperate, cash flow negative, aging and outdated mini-biotech.
SOON!!
Trader:
The 100% anal cancer response refers to a TINY Ph1 study we did years ago. The ph 2 study wasn't nearly as impressive and differently targeted (unfortunately).
Tiny studies with great results aren't all that uncommon and nobody in the scientific community views them as anything other than something to pay serious attention to. It's a very long way from proof.
Most fail or falter, in subsequent larger, well designed, double blind studies.
In dealing with human cancers, nothing is 100% !
Anytime you see that claim, get very suspicious.
I get to eat my words...$3.69 now and that's up about 5%!
At this point they are paying a token divi and not profiting.
Until Nitrogen or natural gas prices rise, it looks grim.
I sure have lost a bunch here, thinking "Well, folks gotta eat"
If we lose Mexico as a market for our corn, as the govt seems determined to do...UAN will really plunge and maybe go under.
"PacBio Technology Resolves Complex Maize Genome, Driving Demand for Other Large-Scale AgBio Sequencing Projects.."
.From the prestigious "Nature" journal.
."While this work was done on our older system,
these impressive results are likely to drive demand for large-scale sequencing projects of crop genomes and we expect that much of this work will be done using our newer, lower-cost, high-throughput instrument, the Sequel System," said Kevin Corcoran, Senior Vice President of Market Development for Pacific Biosciences. "Various groups are already pursuing multiple-reference genome strategies for major crops including maize, sorghum, cotton, and soybean, as well as many specialty crops. This publication provides a roadmap for generating the high-quality assemblies that are needed in crop improvement programs, especially for very complex and repetitive plant genomes."
This oughta help!
We don't need many articles like this to make a real difference in PACB"s fortunes.
I hesitate to wish you good luck Jack
I'm betting this cat has more lives left.