I finally bailed out with a loss conix...It was a long slow ride down.
As long as nat gas is cheap, we have no feedstock price advantage.
Goldman Sachs likes CVR Partners with nice upside target price.
This off-the-radar company could be a little more palatable for accounts with a lower risk tolerance level. CVR Partners L.P. (NYSE: UAN) produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products, which are used by farmers to manage the yield and quality of their crops. As of December 31, 2016, the company produced its nitrogen fertilizer products at two manufacturing facilities, located in Coffeyville, Kansas, and East Dubuque, Illinois.
The company’s Coffeyville facility included a 1,300 ton-per-day capacity ammonia unit, a 3,000 ton-per-day capacity urea-ammonium nitrate unit and a gasifier complex having a capacity of 89 million standard cubic feet per day of hydrogen. The gasifier is a dual-train facility, with each gasifier able to function independently of the other. The Coffeyville facility utilizes a petroleum coke, or pet coke, gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer.
Goldman Sachs has its price target set at $5.40, and the posted consensus target is $5.45.
We do seem to have grown more than an ear or 2 of corn!
Fruits of no moderator.
I notice that despite a rising price for oil, UAN isn't following.
I've lost a fat penny here and stupidly didn't bail out when i should have.
Can anyone project a near future where this company survives and thrives?
We were always on the receiving end of of Darwin's hypothesis and will continue to be so.
Neither Darwinism nor AI much cares what our relative positions are. They are forces of nature or their equivalent and we are minuscule in their faces.
Darwin's dictates turn out to only be a seminal part of our present view of biological evolution and to disregard the rest is to be simplistic. You are being simplistic and something of a romantic here.
You infer values to "my principles" that never existed. This isn't religion!
Of course i'll try to save my ass. That would be consistent with " survival".
You romantically project a human vs AI war, as per 1950s science fiction pulps. Again, a bit silly and very dramatically simplistic.
In fact, neither of us have any bloody idea what will actually happen....But there are a great many shelves of books trying to think it through and , of course, dramatically guessing. Read some of the better ones.
Go read in depth about how evolution functions in the modern view. How ecologies accommodate new elements. How organisms adapt and adopt new species.
There are good reasons why life is still around after all these millions of years.
It seems much more probable that we will incorporate functional AI elements within us, in the not too distant future.
How appropriate that this investing conversation is taking place on the message board of a fertilizer mlp.
I find it very interesting that NOW that you are about to get on the receiving end of Darwinism and that you are about to obtain the short end of the Selection stick with the advent of powerful AI ... you would want to hold the coming AI to a higher standard than you reserve to yourself.
It's very pleasant to advocate "survival of the fittest" when we are the "fittest" but when a more powerful competitor enters the scence, and he will, are you going to uphold your principles and absorb the consequences or will you reneg your principles to try and save your ass ?
A very interesting experiment will soon happen in the future. AI will separate hypocrisy from the true believers.
I am on AI's side, I advocate transhumanism and it would be an honor for me to be terminated by an AI robot soldier in a future man vs machine war. Flesh and blood is obsolete !
I didn't try to make a value judgement...It's just what we seem to be stuck with.
The probability that human values will be ignored as AI serves it's corporate masters is more than a little disconcerting.
Biology has learned a great deal since Darwin penned his seminal insights and a much more benign and nuanced overview has emerged, interestingly.
Perhaps AI will advance enough to understand the necessary interdependence of all living things.
AI is expanding and learning at a ferocious rate so it's possible that it will soon come to mature understandings before corporate culture has to be dragged into more civilized postures.
It seems like you applaud Darwinism.
Then you won't mind when the coming Cyberoneiric technology renders biology (flesh and blood) obsolete. Then you won't mind the advent of transhumanism and the disappearance of normal and therefore obsolete human beings.
I am glad that you and I see eye-to-eye.
Darwin didn't anticipate the coming quantum leap and sentient AI.
Capitalism is bluntly Darwinian in the --survival of the fittest --sense.
That makes it harsh and often unjust. It means that the weak and stupid fall by the way and don't contribute to the gene pool.
It also means that the players get the maximum freedom.
Alternative economic systems sacrifice freedoms for human interest concerns...Ideally.
A mixture of the 2 is necessary for a civilized nation.
We were stupid and invested in UAN and didn't bail out sensibly when things went south.
In the stocks arena, you have to spread your bets and hope success in one will cover your errors in stocks like this one.
As for capitalism, one can always leave for a nation with a more socialistic posture .
What a horrible economic system we live in where, if YOU are to earn a living, others must STARVE !!!
You just summed up Capitalism right here.
Wishing other people to starve and suffer food shortages so that your fertilizer stocks can rise up in price. But if people eat to their hearts and stomach's contents, then YOU starve. This is fucked up.
The current fertilizer debacle is being attributed to production overcapacity, just as the low oil prices are attributed to high oil production from many parts in the world such as shale oil, fracking, the Saudis dumping cheap oil etc.
We are producing a LOT of commodities, a LOT of goods and yet it is construed as bad because it is killing the high prices we can charge.
Last time I checked, having a lot of something is supposed to be good, not bad. I would rather have too much heat in the winter than not enough.
I would rather have too much water when I'm thirsty than not enough.
We need to abolish our current economic system because it requires scarcity in order to work and we are overcoming scarcity.
You wish for commodities to go up in price so you can make money on high prices. Everybody wants to take wealth from others.
Nobody wants to do the dirty smelly and ingrate work of producing the wealth in the first place.
I dream of having my own means of production, on my own lot, and produce my own wealth without having to worry about money.
Abolish property taxes and let me grow my own food, make my own electricity and live off the grid.
Let me commit suicide with explosives (no pain and no botching up the job) when I can no longer care for myself because the rest of the world doesn't care.
The rest of the world wants me to starve so they can make a profit.
I want to find a way to NOT PLAY the money game.
Also, if there is a food shortage and people starve, FOOD will go up in price but not necessarily fertilizer.
Growing the food is like refining petroleum, it is the bottleneck where you can charge high price.
Everybody pumps oil out of the ground but few refine it. That's why even when oil goes down, you pay the same price or even higher at the pump.
In fact, if there are environmental disasters where farmers lose their crops and get devastated, they might take a pause or stop growing etc.
Demand for fertilizer could go down despite the fact that food supplies are going down and price is going up.
If other farmers are devastated, current farmers might smell the money and be tempted to grow more to make more profits, but if they've maxed out their land usage, they cannot grow more to make up for the difference.
In the advent of a food shortage due to weather disasters, food prices will go up AND fertilizer prices will go DOWN.
So you better wish that we will have PLENTY of cheap food with a lot of farmers feeling compelled to produce more and more food to make up for the fall in profitability and require more fertilizer.
I get to eat my words...$3.69 now and that's up about 5%!
At this point they are paying a token divi and not profiting.
Until Nitrogen or natural gas prices rise, it looks grim.
I sure have lost a bunch here, thinking "Well, folks gotta eat"
If we lose Mexico as a market for our corn, as the govt seems determined to do...UAN will really plunge and maybe go under.
We are down to $4.30...As cheap as i can remember.
We still have a feedstock cost advantage,
commodities can't stay low forever.
If you believe in buy low, sell high....this IS low!
Sunk even farther...Listed as no divi this quarter.
That's happened before and if i'd bought more then on spec..
i could have made a very nice profit.
All it's going to take is a big food shortage somewhere wealthy,
and food prices will soar and so will we.
Given the unpredictable global weather......
UAN is getting really cheap again!
Every time it happens i squint at the PPS,
and later regret not buying more.
Ameritrade says they are paying 20% yield!
I figure that over the years i've held it, the fat divi has covered my losses .
Farmers gotta fertilize, folks gotta eat and commodities can't stay low forever.
Prognostication does not seem to be your strong point N.
We have been inching back up from the utter dregs...The payouts have compensate for my cumulative losses over the years to some degree...
But folks gotta eat and farmers gotta fertilize.
Our cheap feedstock advantage has gone with the cheap nat gas prices and competition has entered the market.
Down but not out.
Given crop failures, rising fuel prices and the like, we'll do better.
I think controlling nitrogen run-off will become more urgent and that'll dent our sales. Offshore dead-zones ain't pretty or productive.
T: we seem to be stuck in the wash cycle presently.
I've ridden this puppy down over some years and while the fat distribution has cushioned the descent, it's hurt none-the less.
How commodities could continue to be cheap and the world population continue to grow, makes no long term sense to me.
The only possibility i can see is that the "mass of men"( pardon) are too damp poor to feed their families, etc.
My thinking also. Everything is cyclical.
A week later and i bought some at 5.50 and this morning at $5.
Fertilizer prices are historically cyclical and i hope to live a few more years.
Even if it sinks a bit more, the distribution compensates.
I bought this high years ago and the PPS kept sinking...
but i doubt i lost much because of the high payout.
CVR Partners (NYSE:UAN): Q4 EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $66M (-11.3% Y/Y) misses by $4.15M.
CVR Partners (NYSE:UAN): Q2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.09.
Revenue of $80.8M (+4.7% Y/Y) beats by $2.46M.
Good call! $2 dividend-very-soon! Earnings-release July 31st too.