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Goldman Sachs likes CVR Partners with nice upside target price.
CVR Partners
This off-the-radar company could be a little more palatable for accounts with a lower risk tolerance level. CVR Partners L.P. (NYSE: UAN) produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products, which are used by farmers to manage the yield and quality of their crops. As of December 31, 2016, the company produced its nitrogen fertilizer products at two manufacturing facilities, located in Coffeyville, Kansas, and East Dubuque, Illinois.
The company’s Coffeyville facility included a 1,300 ton-per-day capacity ammonia unit, a 3,000 ton-per-day capacity urea-ammonium nitrate unit and a gasifier complex having a capacity of 89 million standard cubic feet per day of hydrogen. The gasifier is a dual-train facility, with each gasifier able to function independently of the other. The Coffeyville facility utilizes a petroleum coke, or pet coke, gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer.
Goldman Sachs has its price target set at $5.40, and the posted consensus target is $5.45.
We do seem to have grown more than an ear or 2 of corn! Fruits of no moderator. I notice that despite a rising price for oil, UAN isn't following. I've lost a fat penny here and stupidly didn't bail out when i should have. Can anyone project a near future where this company survives and thrives?
Hi Cyber; Nothing new. We were always on the receiving end of of Darwin's hypothesis and will continue to be so. Neither Darwinism nor AI much cares what our relative positions are. They are forces of nature or their equivalent and we are minuscule in their faces. Darwin's dictates turn out to only be a seminal part of our present view of biological evolution and to disregard the rest is to be simplistic. You are being simplistic and something of a romantic here. You infer values to "my principles" that never existed. This isn't religion! Of course i'll try to save my ass. That would be consistent with " survival". You romantically project a human vs AI war, as per 1950s science fiction pulps. Again, a bit silly and very dramatically simplistic. In fact, neither of us have any bloody idea what will actually happen....But there are a great many shelves of books trying to think it through and , of course, dramatically guessing. Read some of the better ones. Go read in depth about how evolution functions in the modern view. How ecologies accommodate new elements. How organisms adapt and adopt new species. There are good reasons why life is still around after all these millions of years. It seems much more probable that we will incorporate functional AI elements within us, in the not too distant future.
I find it very interesting that NOW that you are about to get on the receiving end of Darwinism and that you are about to obtain the short end of the Selection stick with the advent of powerful AI ... you would want to hold the coming AI to a higher standard than you reserve to yourself.
It's very pleasant to advocate "survival of the fittest" when we are the "fittest" but when a more powerful competitor enters the scence, and he will, are you going to uphold your principles and absorb the consequences or will you reneg your principles to try and save your ass ?
A very interesting experiment will soon happen in the future. AI will separate hypocrisy from the true believers.
I am on AI's side, I advocate transhumanism and it would be an honor for me to be terminated by an AI robot soldier in a future man vs machine war. Flesh and blood is obsolete !
Perhaps AI will advance enough to understand the necessary interdependence of all living things.
I didn't try to make a value judgement...It's just what we seem to be stuck with. The probability that human values will be ignored as AI serves it's corporate masters is more than a little disconcerting. Biology has learned a great deal since Darwin penned his seminal insights and a much more benign and nuanced overview has emerged, interestingly. Perhaps AI will advance enough to understand the necessary interdependence of all living things. AI is expanding and learning at a ferocious rate so it's possible that it will soon come to mature understandings before corporate culture has to be dragged into more civilized postures. Perhaps.
It seems like you applaud Darwinism. Then you won't mind when the coming Cyberoneiric technology renders biology (flesh and blood) obsolete. Then you won't mind the advent of transhumanism and the disappearance of normal and therefore obsolete human beings.
I am glad that you and I see eye-to-eye.
Darwin didn't anticipate the coming quantum leap and sentient AI.
Cyberoneiric Capitalism is bluntly Darwinian in the --survival of the fittest --sense. That makes it harsh and often unjust. It means that the weak and stupid fall by the way and don't contribute to the gene pool. It also means that the players get the maximum freedom. Alternative economic systems sacrifice freedoms for human interest concerns...Ideally. A mixture of the 2 is necessary for a civilized nation. We were stupid and invested in UAN and didn't bail out sensibly when things went south. In the stocks arena, you have to spread your bets and hope success in one will cover your errors in stocks like this one. As for capitalism, one can always leave for a nation with a more socialistic posture .
What a horrible economic system we live in where, if YOU are to earn a living, others must STARVE !!!
You just summed up Capitalism right here.
Wishing other people to starve and suffer food shortages so that your fertilizer stocks can rise up in price. But if people eat to their hearts and stomach's contents, then YOU starve. This is fucked up.
The current fertilizer debacle is being attributed to production overcapacity, just as the low oil prices are attributed to high oil production from many parts in the world such as shale oil, fracking, the Saudis dumping cheap oil etc.
We are producing a LOT of commodities, a LOT of goods and yet it is construed as bad because it is killing the high prices we can charge.
Last time I checked, having a lot of something is supposed to be good, not bad. I would rather have too much heat in the winter than not enough. I would rather have too much water when I'm thirsty than not enough.
We need to abolish our current economic system because it requires scarcity in order to work and we are overcoming scarcity.
You wish for commodities to go up in price so you can make money on high prices. Everybody wants to take wealth from others.
Nobody wants to do the dirty smelly and ingrate work of producing the wealth in the first place.
I dream of having my own means of production, on my own lot, and produce my own wealth without having to worry about money.
Abolish property taxes and let me grow my own food, make my own electricity and live off the grid.
Let me commit suicide with explosives (no pain and no botching up the job) when I can no longer care for myself because the rest of the world doesn't care.
The rest of the world wants me to starve so they can make a profit. I want to find a way to NOT PLAY the money game.
Also, if there is a food shortage and people starve, FOOD will go up in price but not necessarily fertilizer.
Growing the food is like refining petroleum, it is the bottleneck where you can charge high price.
Everybody pumps oil out of the ground but few refine it. That's why even when oil goes down, you pay the same price or even higher at the pump.
In fact, if there are environmental disasters where farmers lose their crops and get devastated, they might take a pause or stop growing etc. Demand for fertilizer could go down despite the fact that food supplies are going down and price is going up.
If other farmers are devastated, current farmers might smell the money and be tempted to grow more to make more profits, but if they've maxed out their land usage, they cannot grow more to make up for the difference.
In the advent of a food shortage due to weather disasters, food prices will go up AND fertilizer prices will go DOWN.
So you better wish that we will have PLENTY of cheap food with a lot of farmers feeling compelled to produce more and more food to make up for the fall in profitability and require more fertilizer.
I get to eat my words...$3.69 now and that's up about 5%! At this point they are paying a token divi and not profiting. Until Nitrogen or natural gas prices rise, it looks grim. I sure have lost a bunch here, thinking "Well, folks gotta eat" If we lose Mexico as a market for our corn, as the govt seems determined to do...UAN will really plunge and maybe go under.
We are down to $4.30...As cheap as i can remember. We still have a feedstock cost advantage, commodities can't stay low forever. If you believe in buy low, sell high....this IS low!
Sunk even farther...Listed as no divi this quarter. That's happened before and if i'd bought more then on spec.. i could have made a very nice profit. All it's going to take is a big food shortage somewhere wealthy, and food prices will soar and so will we. Given the unpredictable global weather......
UAN is getting really cheap again! Every time it happens i squint at the PPS, and later regret not buying more. Ameritrade says they are paying 20% yield! I figure that over the years i've held it, the fat divi has covered my losses . Farmers gotta fertilize, folks gotta eat and commodities can't stay low forever.
We have been inching back up from the utter dregs...The payouts have compensate for my cumulative losses over the years to some degree... But folks gotta eat and farmers gotta fertilize. Our cheap feedstock advantage has gone with the cheap nat gas prices and competition has entered the market. Down but not out. Given crop failures, rising fuel prices and the like, we'll do better. I think controlling nitrogen run-off will become more urgent and that'll dent our sales. Offshore dead-zones ain't pretty or productive.
T: we seem to be stuck in the wash cycle presently. I've ridden this puppy down over some years and while the fat distribution has cushioned the descent, it's hurt none-the less. How commodities could continue to be cheap and the world population continue to grow, makes no long term sense to me. The only possibility i can see is that the "mass of men"( pardon) are too damp poor to feed their families, etc.
A week later and i bought some at 5.50 and this morning at $5. Fertilizer prices are historically cyclical and i hope to live a few more years. Even if it sinks a bit more, the distribution compensates. I bought this high years ago and the PPS kept sinking... but i doubt i lost much because of the high payout.
Down under $6 and sinking..In light of the distribution, it sure is cheap. Gonna buy a bit more and enjoy a little income. The corn and soy market may be down now, but in the long run, folks gotta eat.
CVR-Partners Reports 2014 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results And Announces Cash Distribution of 41 Cents
Last update: 19/02/2015 8:30:08 am
SUGAR LAND, Texas, Feb. 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- CVR Partners, LP (NYSE: UAN), a manufacturer of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solution fertilizer products, today announced fourth quarter 2014 net income of $24.8 million, or 34 cents per fully diluted common unit, on net sales of $74.4 million, compared to net income of $27.9 million, or 38 cents per fully diluted common unit, on net sales of $84.3 million for the fourth quarter a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, was $33.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $36.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2013.
Full year 2014 net income was $76.1 million, or $1.04 per fully diluted common unit, on net sales of $298.7 million, compared to $118.6 million of net income, or $1.62 per fully diluted common unit, on net sales of $323.7 million for 2013. Adjusted EBITDA for full year 2014 was $110.3 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of $152.8 million for the previous year.
"We are pleased to report solid results across the board for the 2014 fourth quarter, which included some of the highest production and operating rates of the year," said Mark Pytosh, chief executive officer. "Key highlights of the quarter included ammonia production of 105,900 tons and on-stream rates for the gasifier and ammonia synthesis loop of nearly 100 percent and 98 percent, respectively. These results, combined with solid pricing of UAN in the marketplace, allowed us to generate a significant increase in cash distributions for the quarter as compared to the 2014 third quarter.
"We continue to see strong customer demand for UAN for the first six months of 2015," Pytosh said. "Pricing to date has been steady, and we have sold substantially all of our expected UAN production for the 2015 first quarter.
"We are planning a three-week turnaround in the third quarter of 2015," he continued. "Even with this planned downtime, we expect 2015 will be a beneficial year for the partnership and its unitholders."
Operations
For the fourth quarter of 2014, average realized gate prices for UAN and ammonia were $247 per ton and $547 per ton, respectively, compared to $253 per ton and $478 per ton, respectively, for the same period in 2013. For the full year 2014, average realized gate prices for UAN and ammonia were $259 per ton and $518 per ton, respectively, compared to $282 per ton and $643 per ton, respectively, for the full year 2013.
CVR Partners produced 105,900 tons of ammonia and purchased an additional 3,900 tons of ammonia during the fourth quarter of 2014, of which 4,400 net tons were available for sale while the rest was upgraded to 259,600 tons of UAN. In the 2013 fourth quarter, the plant produced 98,900 tons of ammonia and purchased an additional 12,300 tons of ammonia, of which 1,600 net tons were available for sale while the remainder was upgraded to 270,100 tons of UAN.
For full year 2014, CVR Partners produced 388,900 tons of ammonia and purchased an additional 33,600 tons of ammonia, of which 28,300 net tons were available for sale while the rest was upgraded to 963,700 tons of UAN. For full year 2013, the company produced 402,000 tons of ammonia and purchased an additional 17,300 tons of ammonia, of which 37,900 net tons were available for sale while the remainder was upgraded to 930,600 tons of UAN.
On-stream factors during the 2014 fourth quarter were 99.6 percent for the gasifiers, 98.2 percent for the ammonia synthesis loop, and 95.8 percent for the UAN conversion facility. Full year 2014 on-stream factors were 96.8 percent for the gasifiers, 92.6 percent for the ammonia synthesis loop, and 92.0 percent for the UAN conversion facility. Excluding the impact of the shutdown for the waste heat boiler installation, the pressure swing adsorption unit upgrade and the Linde air separation unit maintenance, 2014 full year on-stream factors would have been 98.2 percent for the gasifiers, 94.3 percent for the ammonia synthesis loop, and 93.7 percent for the UAN conversion facility.
Distributions
CVR Partners also announced today a fourth quarter 2014 distribution of 41 cents per common unit. The distribution, as set by the board of CVR GP, LLC, the general partner of CVR Partners, will be paid on March 9, 2015, to unitholders of record on March 2, 2015.
CVR Partners' fourth quarter cash distribution brings the cumulative cash distributions paid or declared for the 2014 full year to $1.39 per common unit.
CVR Partners, LP is a variable distribution master limited partnership. As a result, its quarterly distributions, if any, will vary from quarter to quarter due to several factors, including, but not limited to, its operating performance, fluctuations in the prices received for its finished products, maintenance capital expenditures, and cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the board of directors of its general partner.
2014 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call
CVR Partners previously announced that it will host its 2014 fourth quarter Earnings Conference Call for analysts and investors on Thursday, Feb. 19, at 11 a.m. Eastern.
The Earnings Conference Call will be broadcast live over the Internet at www.videonewswire.com/event.asp?id=101502. For investors or analysts who want to participate during the call, the dial-in number is (877) 407-8029.
For those unable to listen live, the Webcast will be archived and available for 14 days at http://www.videonewswire.com/event.asp?id=101502. A repeat of the conference call can be accessed by dialing (877) 660-6853, conference ID 13600364.
This release serves as a qualified notice to nominees and brokers as provided for under Treasury Regulation Section 1.1446-4(b). Please note that 100 percent of CVR Partners' distributions to foreign investors are attributable to income that is effectively connected with a United States trade or business. Accordingly, CVR Partners' distributions to foreign investors are subject to federal income tax withholding at the highest effective tax rate.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains forward-looking statements. You can generally identify forward-looking statements by our use of forward-looking terminology such as "outlook," "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "might," "plan," "potential," "predict," "seek," "should," or "will," or the negative thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. For a discussion of risk factors which may affect our results, please see the risk factors and other disclosures included in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, any subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and our other SEC filings. These risks may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Given these risks and uncertainties, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this press release are made only as of the date hereof. CVR Partners disclaims any intention or obligation to update publicly or revise its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law.
About CVR Partners, LP
Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, with manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, Kansas, CVR Partners, LP is a Delaware limited partnership focused primarily on the manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers. The CVR Partners nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facility is the only operation in North America that uses a petroleum coke gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer and includes a 1,225 ton-per-day ammonia unit, a 3,000 ton-per-day urea ammonium nitrate unit, and a dual-train gasifier complex having a capacity of 84 million standard cubic feet per day of hydrogen.
CVR Partners, LP Financial and Operational Data (all information in this release is unaudited other than the statement of operations and cash flow data for the year ended December 31, 2013 and the balance sheet data as of December 31, 2013).
Three Months Ended December Year Ended 31, December 31, ------------------ ------------------- 2014 2013 2014 2013 -------- -------- ------ ----------- (in millions, except units and per unit data) Consolidated Statement of Operations Data: Net sales (1) $ 74.4 $ 84.3 $298.7 $ 323.7 Cost of product sold - Affiliates 2.6 2.4 9.4 10.8 Cost of product sold - Third parties 12.8 16.5 62.6 47.3 Direct operating expenses - Affiliates 0.8 0.8 3.0 4.1 Direct operating expenses - Third parties 20.9 22.6 95.9 90.0 Selling, general and administrative expenses - Affiliates 2.9 4.1 13.4 16.0 Selling, general and administrative expenses - Third parties 0.9 1.2 4.3 5.0 Depreciation and amortization 7.0 7.0 27.3 25.6 -------- -------- ------ ----------- Operating income 26.5 29.7 82.8 124.9 Interest expense and other financing costs (1.7) (1.7) (6.7) (6.3) Other income, net -- -- -- 0.1 -------- -------- ------ ----------- Income before income tax expense
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