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I thought their statement in the podcast was very reasonable, they'll be doing some financing to enable them to expand, much won't be dilutive. They're talking about 40% month to month growth, that's huge. We just need to relax and let them do what they're doing.
If Vegas is serious about reopening, I wonder if casino's could continuously have our product misting to the point that say once every hour or two the entire casino was treated. That would be about as safe as I believe they could make it.
Gary
If they already have the vials being stored, how does that price compare with say conducting a clinical trial with 1000 patients that could result in an approval, say a year from now, perhaps less. I suspect that if it got the job done it would be cheaper than a formal trial, and much faster. Our FDA might not be happy about such an action, but I believe the pressure to do something would overcome their resistance.
Gary
If what's been said about PSTI having a substantial reserve of PLX-PAD in cryogenic storage is true, with a single placenta providing 20,000 doses, wouldn't it make sense to make 20K vials of the drug available for compassionate drug treatment throughout the world. Not a clinical trial, but so much anecdotal evidence that it cannot possibly be discounted.
The only requirement for those who receive it would be reporting the status of the patent receiving it before the drug was originally administered, and the outcome after the patient either returned to society, or was deceased.
I'm listening to the Mayor of Vegas attempting to make a case for reopening. It's been years since I spent time in Vegas, but I really don't know how a casino can be rendered safe in the midst of this threat. I know people will need to get back to work, but not until they can safely do so.
It would be a whole new ball game if our drug became the answer, and sufficient drug was available to use it at the first sign of pneumonia. If that were the case, and that proved effective, most patients could avoid hospitalization and coronavirus while highly infective wouldn't be nearly the danger. Then returning to a degree of normalcy could be safely done. I believe the company has, or can make sufficient doses to support such an effort, it would go into the millions of doses worldwide, but it should be possible.
Gary
Was there a new podcast, I linked on what I believed was, but it was clearly made before the U.K. announcement. If there is one, I'd both like a link, but also hope the moderators would link sticky it on the site.
Thanks,
Gary
I'm not big on conspiracy theories, but do I believe that BP would rather see companies like NWBO fail, sure. In the long run, I'm not sure it matters. Sure, with no firm news a concerted effort to hold down the share price can be somewhat successful, but what happens on solid, undenyable news.
I'll concede that bashers can find something in even the most positive news to create limited doubt, but when data screams this is worthy of approval, Investors and Institutions will realize what's about to happen, as will BP.
I can't say it will be Merck, even if they have the inside track, who'll say I want at least a part of this market. Their are so many BP's out there with billions to spend that a fight could certainly occur. While all of them would prefer to sell their mass produced pills and potions, I believe they also know that personalized drugs are the future, and if they want to maintain their piece of the pie, they need to get in. I can't think of anything that would benefit investors more than a bidding war to see who partners, or acquires NWBO.
As much as Merck seems to be interested, I've seen Roche get into many companies, in some cases first as a partner, then they acquire it, and then spin it out again, while maintaining a majority interest. Look at Genentech, currently wholly owned by Roche, but operating in a manner that they could spin it off again. Both investors and Roche have made money as they played this game. I certainly would rather see a partnership up front, then tremendous success as products reached the market. Finally if acquired it would be at a price that investors today don't even want to dream about, but if both DCVax-L and DCVax-Direct were approved and garnering a substantial market share, triple digit billion dollar market caps are not out of the question, so likewise they'd be what would be needed to buy out the company. Certainly this is at least 5 years out, perhaps longer, as DCVax-Direct needs some time, but if positive for multiple cancers, who can deny that much potential.
Gary
As I see it, the company said they were gathering the data, or more properly having their contractor do it. To me, that's not something you do if the SAP hasn't been accepted. While I'd have liked to see it expressed more clearly, I believe what they said was we're proceeding with all that's necessary to release TLD about the end of June. That's telling me that nothing else sits in their way, it's just a matter of getting it done.
Gary
I never turn down a green day, but frankly cannot believe how little value has thus far been placed on what happened last week. I don't know how long it will take before substantial U.K. purchases, or leases, show up on our books, but the totals from that contract will truly be something beautiful to behold. I don't know if they're going to set up to build much of the equipment in the U.K., I would be fine with that, though I'd be happier if it was build here and shipped there, but either way, it's money on our books.
Gary
I think the MM's are in strong control of the price right now, but doubt if they can hold on very long, but it may take something more directly from the company to break their hold. I suspect it won't be that long before Gary does a podcast, or puts out the Annual Report with a forecast that's based on the most recent occurrences, not simply where things stood on December 31, it may only be a verbal description of what's happening, but there will be lots of $$$$$$'s being discussed in that report.
Gary
I would hope that when we hear about the presentation the company's making in the next few days will indicate that they now have hundreds who've received the drug under compassionate use terms. Trials require formality, blinding, patients on placebo's, etc. and data may not be revealed for months. Compassionate use permits the results to be routinely reported on, it lets the world see what the drug is capable of, even if the medical experts don't like it, they cannot deny the benefits. I hope we've opened the door to all who'd like to save their lives, or that of someone in their family, as most on ventilators cannot make a conscious decision.
I'm fine if simultaneously clinical trials begin, but they'll take much longer even though the regulators are clearly acting far more dynamically then is the norm. I believe hundreds, or thousands who've received the drug under compassionate use terms will speak loads if the greater majority are clearly survivors.
Gary
I certainly cannot say the next time we'll hear from corporate management, but I believe when we do the message will be, we're making money, lots of it. They won't say it that way, but while it will be awhile before it shows up in quarterly reports, I believe by the time they report on this quarter, probably in early August, we'll be amazed at how much money they're bringing in.
I'd not be surprised if we get another podcast, after the news from the U.K., and it won't be that long before the Annual Report should hit. I believe they can take an extension on the first quarter, so that might be early June, but while Gary told us March was profitable, January and February weren't, so I expect a small loss. Our current quarter, and beyond should be game changers, and that's why I believe by end of the year we'll be over $1 and at least be on the OTC, or possibly even the AMEX.
Gary
As I see it, TLD is the end of the beginning. It certainly is a major goal, but there is a lot to do once it happens so the ultimate goal, approval can be achieved. On Saturday it certainly seemed that most who listened in were happy with the conference, though frankly few of our questions were answered. What was important was a commitment that the end was in sight, and for the most part we accepted that.
Based on the stock price, the market accepted it too, but not with a great deal of enthusiasm, that's fine, I believe it will build. In addition to the dates we think we'll get the TLD, it might be interesting to add what we believe the share price will be the day before TLD is announced. If that could be added, I'll guess at $.35 by then.
Out of curiosity, in that they are gathering data on patients, would all those remaining alive undergo complete examination so as to evaluate the likelihood they'd have at living dramatically longer, or will this be a simple verification that they're still alive. I would think in the end they'd want to know if a portion of those that still are alive are essentially in complete remissions, or categorized at some level below that.
Gary
6/29
Gary
If it were up to me, PSTI would make perhaps 1000 doses available at no cost all over the world on a compassionate use bases. The only requirement for each dose would be reporting the initial status of the patient, and an update of that status weekly into a database where all could see the outcome. Not nearly as controlled as a clinical trial, but a ton of anecdotal evidence of efficacy, if that's what it shows. All patients who gain access should be dealing with pneumonia that appears to be potentially headed toward a ventilator, or already be on a ventilator. My point is that such an effort should yield a great deal of information in under a months time as few if any patients outcomes won't be clear after a few weeks of receiving the drug.
We can get great results in 7 patients, or 70 patients, and people like Dr. Fauci will say we need clinical trials. Do it with 1000 patients and perhaps we stand a shot at the FDA saying, let's get this to everyone.
Gary
Unless Germany was working with PSTI's technology well before the announcement, and in volumes much greater than thought, it couldn't have that kind of impact. I would suspect that they tested more, and were better isolating, including the use of masks routinely.
50 of so years ago, when I did some work in Japan, it was quite common then to see people wearing masks. I was told that they were ill, and they were protecting others. My point is, they've recognized the benefits, while it was uncommon to see Americans who clearly don't feel well protecting others with such a practice. Hopefully this is changing, and now we're recognizing that masks can be of benefit for all at a time when people who feel perfectly healthy are actually spreading disease.
I believe I'm like many American's I know, I cannot tell anyone whether I've had a mild case of coronavirus, or not. I've had no fever, but have had a mild sore throat for a number of days, as had my wife. Without testing, I don't see how I can know if I've had it, or haven't. If I have, perhaps I now am protected, and won't be easily infected again, but of course if I haven't had it, as an immune compromised senior, I should remain isolated. Life would be far simpler if people could have a home test, rather like a pregnancy test, that could be delivered in the mail and wouldn't even require lab analysis. Barring that, testing should be available at drugstores, etc that were they type that gave the answer in 5 minutes. No other form of testing machine should be used, other than blood testing which could show if you ever had it. I don't know precisely what they're doing in Germany, but I'd be willing to bet they do a lot more testing. I also don't understand why in the beginning we didn't use the tests successfully developed by others, and fouled up badly in creating our own. I believe the U.S. does many things well, but it's fooling to ignore what's working in the rest of the world and insist on creating our own way of doing everything.
Gary
What do you believe the numbers should be. Should the O/S grow to 800 million or more, I still believe the case would be solid for the growth I'm suggesting. No company wants to use every authorized share they have available, I believe that if they went to 800 million they'd either want shareholders to authorize a lot more shares, say 1.5 billion, or at least a small reverse split, I'd rather authorize the additional shares.
This company can either become an industrial giant in this sector, or be bought out by a company that's big in the sanitizing area today. Personally I'd like to see it remain independent, but for enough billions, I'd be fine with such a buyout. Independently, I don't think it's currently possible to say just how high our market cap could go over say the next 5 or 10 years.
Gary
What they're doing may not be utilizing PSTI's technology, but I believe they'll learn they can benefit a few people with a single placenta, while PSTI can get 20,000 doses that produce similar benefits from a single placenta. I believe any benefits seen in Miami will lead to PSTI for much more massive dosing.
Gary
Britt,
I believe there is a step in between that's owned by Nasdaq, that's the AMEX and I believe $1 a share can qualify. While I believe that once we've hit $1 it won't be that much longer to $4, if I'm right it wouldn't be a bad move to move to the AMEX.
Personally, I've never like the dollar based qualification, it makes no sense to me that a company with a multi-billion dollar market cap doesn't qualify because their share price is still below $4, while a company with a tiny fraction of their market cap may qualify because they have so few shares outstanding. I really believe some market cap should be required to qualify, and perhaps about a quarter of that maintained to remain, but not based on a dollar price for the stock which typically encourages reverse splits to achieve, or remain on the Nasdaq. In very few cases have I seen a reverse split work, though PSTI did one to stay on the Nasdaq awhile ago, and it may work out well.
When people put down a company for too many shares outstanding I suggest they have a look at Apple, of course they were below a billion shares before they did a 7 for 1 split.
Gary
Even if dilutive financing takes the O/S up substantially, say to 700 million, $4 would represent a $2.8 billion dollar market cap. With a P/E of 10, earnings would need to be $280 million. I believe that with what's been announced just this week that won't be a problem within a year or so.
However, I don't really believe the company will be saying stop, we have all the sales we ever want. I believe the news is certainly going to attract more customers, and with each new customer others will see the benefits, and more customers will come. As this expands all over the U.K. do you suspect the French may see it, how about the Italians, etc.etc.etc.
I believe we're looking at the company that's changing sanitation, not just in hospitals, but in all sorts of places. If I'm right about this, either this will blow right through that $4 required for the Nasdaq and move up to well into double, or even triple digit billions, or at some point it will be bought out, and I'd be saddened if it weren't for at least double digit billions. Investors will be very well served, just give it a little time.
Gary
I don't believe any terms have been announced, I don't generally think that Governments will lease, rather than purchase, but regardless, with an order of this size, I'm sure there will be a substantial discount from the list price.
Gary
I thought that one of the more interesting comments from the meeting was the comment on how they've had to go back to all of the patients, many who've passed on, and find information that they knew nothing about when the trial was initiated. Fortunately, they found a way of doing it, probably from blood tests, but I'm not sure of that.
It sounds like the trial will in part be judged by factors that were totally unknown at the time the trial began.
Gary
They didn't state that, but they couldn't be collecting the data if that were not the case IMHO. The only way it's not the case is if they've agreed to disagree on how the trial is to be judged, but I don't think that's the case.
We now have an estimated completion date, to me it's a major step in the right direction.
Gary
I would hope that this week we learn not only the progress for the patients we know about, but also learn that many more have been added under compassionate use. Ultimately a multinational trials should be announced, I just don't know if the company will undertake it, or if they're attempting to have it funded by other sources.
I believe we're all living in limbo, we don't even know if we carry the disease even though we feel fine. What's really needed is a simple, self administered test, something that worked rather like a pregnancy test, just a little spit, pee, etc on the test point and in a little time it shows positive or negative.
It's my understanding that the 5 minute test equipment is now available in every state, however the Federal Govt. is holding, and parceling out the materials needed to make it work. It's sad that with each test equipment package, all that would be needed to test say 10,000 people were included.
The Federal Govt needs to get all the stuff it's holding out to the states, stories of how they confiscated PPE, etc that states, cities, or hospitals have ordered, and nothing is delivered to those who ordered it needs to stop. Building an inventory of the needed materials by the Fed's is fine if they do so by ordering it, but not by confiscating what's previously been ordered by others.
Gary
I believe the late June early July scenario should work with presenting the full data at SNO. Abstracts are required before then, but I'm pretty sure a placeholder can be filed and updated. Here's a link to the SNO site:
https://www.soc-neuro-onc.org/SNO/MY_SNO/SNO/News/2020_SNO_Annual_Meeting.aspx
I think the company will meet, or come very close to meeting their schedule, and I'd actually hope that they left themselves some wiggle room that if not needed may exceed the schedule.
I'd like to ask a question of those who previously attending their annual meeting. While I'm satisfied to have a time line, I'm wondering if those who attended meetings were able to have more specific questions answered in that more limited forum. Personally I'd like to see a combination of both, a live meeting that was webcast, so those in attendance could meet with and question the presenters, while all could listen in to at least a big part of the presentation.
It will be interesting to see if between now and when top line data is announced if Dr. Liau might have a presentation that fills in some of the blanks, like how many remain alive, or what the median is currently for the Top 100 data she previously discussed. If not, many of the blanks will be filled in with TLD, and hopefully it will all be available at SNO.
Gary
While I would certainly have liked to hear more, I believe the key information we wanted was answered, TLD late June, early July. The fact that the company stated they're fully blinded until the data's compiled may also be saying that things like the number still alive may be know by Dr. Liau, but the company is blinded to it unless she makes a presentation that's open to others as well.
It may not be all we'd hope for, but I believe it positive, and I believe Monday should be an up day, and it will continue to move up as we head toward unblinding and announcement of TLD.
Gary
Out of curiosity, did anyone get in with the password. I too am in as a guest.
Gary
It's only illegal if it's tied to a material event that the SEC defines as requiring a release. I believe they can speak about the trial, goals for completing it, timelines, etc without violating any SEC rules, but after the meeting they should release the results along with at least the highlights of the discussion. I believe they're also going to have the meeting available on archive, so no one will be left out of the information discussed there.
Gary
It looks like we won't get a PR today, perhaps tomorrow before the meeting if there is something that must have a PR before they can discuss it. Frankly, I believe they're free to discuss practically everything we're interested in without a PR, mainly because they don't come tied to monetary deposits, and it's that that make them material events.
.
I'm hoping we come away from the meeting with a much greater knowledge of what's happening, and hopefully some firm guidelines as to when it will happen. A PR should be released after the meeting that will confirm the outcome of the election, but also can discuss anything brought up during the meeting, so guidance should be available to all, not only those who listened in.
If we're satisfied with what we hear, the share price will no doubt be higher on Monday, if we're left with questions or doubts, I suspect we'll bobble along between $.14 and $.20. Let's how the call goes well, and that we can all get in.
Gary
I'm stopping my guesses as to what the stock will do day to day. Yesterday I read the release on the U.K. and it was so much more than the company had ever indicated it could be. I imagined the stock opening anywhere between a dime and a dollar.
I'm not saying the company didn't tell us about the U.K., but who would have thought that besides all of their hospitals they'd commit to the use of our equipment in virtually all of their healthcare facilities. I certainly don't know precisely how they're intending to do it, but the totals for all the units they'll be purchasing or leasing will go into the thousands, if not tens of thousands. While I'm sure they're getting a break on the retail price, this still has to be a multi-billion dollar undertaking on their part. I can't say how much emphasis coronavirus may have placed on their decision, but with or without coronavirus, hospital acquired infections have become a major problem all over the world.
I frankly don't care if we gap up to $.10 or not, I don't believe that every gap must fill, but many do. I would be very surprised if by the end of the month we're not a dime or more, but more importantly, by this time next year that we'll be well beyond $1.
Gary
While we're in agreement Cherry, I had expected more on the U.K. news, and lacking that, I felt I had to add more. I don't mind averaging up when I'm confident a stock is going higher, and I've never been surer of that happening in any stock than I am in this.
No one knows precisely how quickly the hospitals and other medical facilities in the U.K. will be equipped with our system, but the release made it sound like the target is by the end of next year. If that's the case, I believe our earnings could be over $1 a share by next year, if not before, with any reasonable P/E you're into double digit dollar share prices.
Gary
I'm not certain of anything, but perhaps next week in the presentation by the company we'll learn what's being done in Germany. I believe what they're doing is more like a trial, rather than compassionate use, which is producing some positive anecdotal evidence, but not the sort of thing that impresses people like Dr. Fauci.
I believe most of the other products under development are largely intended to treat coronavirus once it's been diagnosed, but by the time people have developed pneumonia, they will be of little benefit. Once pneumonia develops, hopefully PLX-PAD can be applied, ideally before a ventilator is needed, but certainly once people are being put on ventilators. I'm of the belief that if it's used prior to requiring a ventilator, far fewer will advance to the point where they need it.
We have roughly a month before the numbers are greatly reduced, not that there still won't be many patients to treat, but it might be a tiny fraction of the number on ventilators today. If we can get this done before most State's return to some degree of normalcy, should it reemerge in the Fall or Winter we'll be approved by then, and the death rate should be greatly diminished. It won't end the threat, but it will be less deadly, and then we should get a vaccine. If we get that approval, we'll be saving a lot of lives in the future as it becomes the SOC for the treatment of pneumonia regardless of the cause.
Gary
I agree, just increased my holdings. After yesterday's news I never thought I could buy it for single digit pennies, I don't think it will stay there very long.
Gary
I believe time will prove you right, but right now only people who were familiar with the company know anything about it. By the time the price approaches $1 it will be more of a household name, and as revenue kicks in, we'll see far greater prices as both Institutional, and individual investors recognize the value we already know exist in the company.
Gary
I've not read nearly all the posts since last night, and frankly I fail to understand why the market didn't have a greater reaction to the news, but regardless, at these prices the stock is a screaming buy.
I know the company has set up the organization in the U.K., which they own, but it's very possible that that organization, not the U.S., may be manufacturing all the equipment for the contract, it shouldn't matter. As I see it, this contract alone is something between ten and one hundred times the business the company has been doing. I cannot say how much revenue we'll see in this quarter, but by next quarter it should be huge, and even bigger in the fourth quarter. I believe all that revenue is easily going to make our stock worth well into single digit dollars, and if additional contracts come in, as they seem to be, double digit dollars is not out of the question at all.
Let's allow for dilution and say our O/S goes to 750 million shares. Does anyone not believe that we could bring in $250 million in earnings. With a P/E of 10 we have a market cap of $2.5 billion, the share price would be $3.33 with a P/E of 30, the market cap is $7.5 billion, thus a share price of $10. I believe this is a low-ball estimate of what the total business the company is doing with both the U.K. contract and what appears to be a very rapidly growing demand for both equipment and fluids here in the U.S.
I certainly welcome others thoughts, but I believe that we've simply not yet seen that much market exposure, but when we do, you won't see this below $1 ever again.
Gary
I believe we need to get it into more patients, even if it's all anecdotal evidence, people on ventilators, especially if they've been there a long time, often don't make it. It appears the American who had the treatment is near coming off the ventilator just days after getting it, he was on the ventilator about 3 weeks before treatment. Last night ABC L.A. did a story about a younger patient they appeared ready to give up on, I suggested to the station they attempt to get compassionate use from PSTI.
Without a grant they may not be able to fund a full blown trial, and frankly I believe they should get some support in doing a trial. We should hear more next week at their presentation.
As for other drugs gaining approval, it may remove a few patients, but those who get serious pneumonia won't benefit from the other treatments, they will from PLX-PAD. Likewise people with flu based pneumonia, or who get it from other reasons will also get the benefits. This just needs to play its way out.
Gary
I would suspect that after the U.K. news is seen around the world there could be much interest from both countries that have nationalized healthcare, as well as from HMO's, major hospitals, etc. Clearly the British put this to the test and jumped in with both feet. I think Canada might be a natural for the next country to commit if we play our cards right.
Gary
Apple has over 4 billion shares outstanding, perhaps you should tell them that they have a problem.
Gary
While I agree, this is huge, we really don't know the terms of the contract. I suspect they'll purchase, not lease, but regardless, they should get a substantial discount over someone getting one or a few units to sanitize one hospital.
Regardless of how they're going to pay, or where these units are to be made, this should be worth somewhere in the billions over a few years. This order is so big that it wouldn't surprise me if some, or all the equipment is manufactured in the U.K. It would take some time to set up, but it may be a logical way to handle this large an order.
I expect more details may be in the annual report when we receive it, but the real accounting for this won't be included until second quarter results are released, probably in August. I do believe that we'll be told a lot more about this between now and then. We knew the trial in England could be big with all the hospitals there, this is dramatically bigger as they're including so much more beyond the hospitals.
Gary
A quick look at a chart indicated the highest the stock ever sold for was $2.50, I believe a new all time high won't be that long, and by years end a listing on the Nasdaq is not out of the question.
Gary
Clay,
What you did as a technician may be perfect, but my critcism of technicians is a failure to look at the news. PCTL announced a contract with the U.K. that should be worth billions after the close. This stock will gap tomorrow, and it could be to 5 to 10 times what it's currently selling for, and that would be a bargain. I'd like to hear your estimate after reading about it, but I believe we'll have a gap that will never fill.
Gary
I believe we'll see income growth for the foreseeable future, the U.K. is far from the last country to purchase for their healthcare system, they're the first. I don't know that the U.S. would ever do a centralized purchase, but Canada certainly could, the same can be said of every country where healthcare is provided by the govt.
Dream big about tomorrow, I believe anyone who puts in a sell order in advance of the start of trading is cheating themselves out of a bigger gain, and regardless of the high tomorrow, at the end of this year it will be dramatically higher than that.
The fewer investors willing to sell their shares at any price they might see tomorrow, or through the end of the year, the higher it will go. I certainly can't say how high it could go tomorrow, but I truly believe that dollars are not out of the question. In fact, if anyone could accurately anticipate the earnings from the announcement today, disregarding all the other work the company is doing, I believe a double digit billion dollar market cap would be justified. How quickly can it come> I believe there are Institutions that recognize the value of the contract with the U.K. and they'll be stepping in to buy shares that are priced substantially below the price they can see it rising to.
Don't let them steal you shares cheaply.
Gary