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Kam you and tmoney have done a great job on this board and your work and enthusiasm should not be underestimated. Maybe you can take a minute and let peasodos know when UWTI will pass DWTI. Just kidding at least he should have first hand experience knowing what a falling knife looks like.
Sean Parker donates 250 million towards advancing Immunotherapy technologies. I know the University of Pennsylvania will receive some of this money. I am guessing that may be due to Innovio.
Any thoughts?
Kam you can't tell him that! That would be telling him to catch a falling knife while hoping for a dead cat bounce or something like that. Sorry couldn't resist.
Anyone that has been here for even a couple of years can see this goes where they want when they want and that's about it. They sell the stories about quotas or turbulence in the middle east, the EPA winning a battle to avoid drilling or strengthening economies whenever they want things to go up.
They sell reaching storage capacity, worsening economies, companies pumping above quotas or not agreeing to them, someone finding a new multi billion barrel field when they want it to go down.
The only thing this fund will never do is stay the same---hell even decay makes that impossible.
You may (and probably will) see wild swings during the day, week, year and 5 year time frames. Up, Down it doesn't matter during any of those time frames.
Between UWTI and DWTI there is around 6-700 million traded most days. All anyone here wants is opportunity. Someone is taking advantage of that opportunity every day. MMs have to love action like this!
It's always funny to see individuals quote only those that support their views. After the last few weeks most would have to agree the so called media BS is a pretty powerful tool to move stocks in any direction.
It's also strange how some who can't post the falling knife idea enough here have never posted the same information on the board they support. That despite the price there falling from $500 a share to $150. Why is that?
While I agree the reverse split will hurt the price of UWTI if for no other reason than opportunity the move has been no more than .30 pre split so far. Personally I think it will get worse. JMO.
IMO all the markets are crooked as hell and controlled by much bigger players than those that read message boards. They don't gamble in the stock market they control it.
That is what makes all the gamesmanship on these boards nothing more than entertainment.
Hopefully everyone at this level makes a few trades and banks a few dollars.
Karma for those that try and influence others with motives other than truth.
Your argument about US shale drillers going bankrupt doesn't make sense to me. I think the Saudis by now know the price at which US shale companies become active. Their only goal now should be to maximize profits just below that number. Any US shale operation that does go bankrupt will simply be bought out by one of the bigger players that can hold those wells as long as they need to. Just a balance sheet entry for them.
If US shale becomes active at $40 the price should be kept at $38-$39 with short term moves into the low $40s. That would maximize their profit without giving US shale much opportunity to start up again.
"That would be correct if the only thing that concerns them is themselves but you are ignoring politics."
The problem with this idea is the first country to be hurt by the strategy you laid out would not be Saudi Arabia. It would in fact be Russia. Russia would not put up with Iran trying to crash the price of oil for any length of time.
Anything Iran does can only be accomplished with permission from the Kremlin. The only way this could be accomplished would be with a trade purchase agreement that would help the Russian economy. Perhaps an extremely large order for military equipment.
Not sure but how does the reverse split figure in to all the pricing. DWTI didn't have any type of split so there is no way they would stay within the same parameters.
Time to start jumping in IMO. Looking for 3 purchases. About 10000 each. First grab at 2.10. I really don't care if it goes up or down from here. Would like to get another grab around 1.60. Third purchase could be lower than that if the opportunity comes up or on the start of the rise after a solid bottom has been formed. I'm good with either option.
Good Luck To Everyone!
Review the past! Just an opinion but those that were around the last time UWTI traded down in this area made a lot of money TRADING everyday. It made wild swings during the day. It's in a range now where the benefits of shorting are reduced so I believe the big money just plays with it here both up and down. May not take place but it is already starting to look that way.
While that should be the case, All you have to do is look at price movements. When UWTI is valued at a higher price, the price swings are much greater. as the price gets driven lower the swings become smaller as people are starting to believe it is reaching support levels.
Between 3&4 dollars a share, 30-40 cent swings in each direction are common. As the price got closer to $1 swings would be closer to 10 cents.
If the reverse split takes the price back to $4 those same swings will again begin to widen out simply because that's how those that move this ETN know they can move it. It's harder to short a play at around $1 than it is when it's trading at $4.
A reverse split technically has no change in value on any stock.(or ETN) As you mention the price multiplies by the same rate the split is done at. It's more a matter of opportunity and perception.
My opinion only but I would be very leery of buying right after a reverse split. I think those that short will attack it trying to start that downward pressure all over again. Until some strong support is shown you have to have balls to buy in regardless of how low it is.
If you have those balls you could on the other hand make a lot of money. When it does actually turn the support will be buying shares at a very discounted price to where it was.
Fair answer. I just want everyone to understand how much money those that have "traded" this stock have made VS those that have tried to buy and hold in either direction.
Decay really has no place in this argument since people shouldn't be in this long enough to be affected by decay.
I showed a person that wanted to invest 100 grand how to play the daily swings controlled by bots in fact created by bots how much he could make even if the stock went nowhere. 2 weeks later the amount was 230 grand.
I thank Ryan and some of the others here for teaching me about an investment that I knew nothing about previously. It has been the most profitable play I have ever been involved with using the long term direction as a bailout if needed.
That is the only reason I challenge people to be honest about their own motives. Some people can use your knowledge to improve their own.
Just curious. Was DWTI a falling knife when you first started buying at $142 a share. Averaging down can work pretty well can't it? Feel free to mention how poor all of our judgements are at times when we try to time the market.
Keep guessing. Wasn't too long ago you were still pushing DWTI at around $140. How has that been going for you?
Mid to low 50s possibly even 40s
Hell why don't you try 10
I've learned a lot about how ETNs work in a very short period of time by following this board. I appreciate everything offered by both sides as it allows me to pick and chose what advice I want to follow.
I did a trial run for an investor over the past two weeks and took a stake of 100 grand to 220 grand in two weeks. That was possible by playing both sides of this equation.
I'll learn from anyone that has something to offer. The number of blah blah blah posts are getting out of hand. Those that have fun I enjoy. Even Posedos offers information to back up his posts. I made a couple big plays on his side of the board.
Let's keep the board light.
Really low volume shows not much interest at this level. I would expect bots to push this down going into the close to raise interest for tomorrow.
Saudi Chevron Said to Halt Oil Production at Wafra Fields
I've seen reports where they will lesson oil production anywhere between 250 thousand and 400 thousand barrels a day
Ryan- I coach and train in many sports-that's pretty much been my life. That's why I appreciate you MB Cyclical and a few others here that try and help others out. Keep your workouts high intensity but short. Longer training just uses your body up. I'm 58 squatted up to 400lbs as few as 5 years ago but will now have a hip replaced in a week. After you pass 50 your body will remind you of everything you've done the previous years.
It's like your bank account and your life experiences. If you've planned them well you are in good shape. If you haven't let's just say you will know it.
I may be bringing in a little bigger money in the next couple of weeks to play both sides. 30000 shares or so. I'll be applying information you guys have helped teach.
Thanks to all of you!!!!!!!!!!
I would imagine that is the normal process for things. As the refineries complete their maintenance and come back on line the stocks should build prior to the summer driving season. As that driving season hits it's peak gas stocks will flatten or experience a draw down.
I could be wrong but seems like common sense to me. If they were only able to keep pace now they would never be able to meet demand in the summer.
So the crude stocks at Cushing are actually starting to draw down. It will be interesting to see how that is received.
Doesn't look like we will have a storage problem.
That was the point I raised a few days ago. I don't think it will stop fracking, i think new regulations will add cost to the process. That added cost will allow a price rise at some point.
The number of lawsuits will have to be taken in to account at some point.
Techniques will have to change.
I have to make one correction. While the study says it is not the actual Frakking that causes the problem it is the process of getting rid of the waste water. To change the way they get rid of the waste water would add enough cost to the process to raise the price level at which the Frakking industry could compete.
That's why I believe it would be very bullish for the cost/price of oil.
Alright no takers I understand.
The Saudis should pump like mad for at least a short period of time to stop as much Frakking as possible. Then all they would have to do is send in the big name lawyers.
For those that haven't seen the results of recent studies it has been shown without a doubt that all the increased seismic activity can be attributed directly to the increase in Frakking. If Saudi Arabia pumped enough to stop Frakking for a short period and that seismic activity slowed significantly or stopped all together, new regulations or new techniques would soon be called for.
Some areas have already fought off the practice before it could begin. Others would now have the data to stop it from continuing. Anyone that was forward thinking at all had to know there would be some consequences to altering the substructure of the earth.
True removing oil does this to an extent but Frakking is more along the lines of breaking apart that structure not just removing a liquid.
The latest studies in Oklahoma hold frakking directly responsible for the increase in earthquakes. As claims from those earthquakes start to increase, there will be a call for action.
JMO
Jim
The Saudis now hold all the cards for those that are paying attention.
If they wanted to they could almost completely shut down the US Frakking industry. Everything is already in place to do so.
There are only two things they would need to do to eliminate the competition and have oil prices wherever they would want for a very long time. The US would again be at their mercy. Their strategy and the outcome are so easy and could not be challenged IMO.
Anyone interested in my thoughts. UWTI would soar as soon as their cards were revealed. Sorry had to put a tease in.
By the way there is just one announcement I am waiting for that will eventually prove you have all done your job.
SEC ANNOUNCES THEY HAVE HALTED----THE OTC
Good luck and thanks to all of you!
TenKay- actually I have to disagree with you on that point. You are very dangerous to penny players for the very reason you point out. Unfortunately you're right pretty much all the time. It just takes a few solid beatings before most of us move up to better exchanges. A couple of my early investments were halted after some of you showed up. I no longer play any pennies and don't mind thanking all of you for teaching real lessons. Some of us do eventually "get it".
As long as we do learn the price we pay is worth it.
PS. DON'T ANY OF YOU EVER SHOW UP ON ANY STOCK I OWN!!!!!!!!!
Just kidding thanks for the lessons (dammit Janice) CWRN and a couple others from my past.
My warning was the first sign of Janice and her crew. You knew bad things were about to happen
He just meant you were way off base with what you were posting. A number of regulars have offered a lot of advice on trading trends between DWTI and UWTI. Charts and the like. They've been pretty good at it so many appreciate it. At up to 300 million a day no one here is trying to influence anything.
It's buyandsell LOL
Appreciate the answers guys. I did have a margin account when I traded through Scottrade. I am now using an account I share with another person that is an Etrade account. Can I have the same type of account through Etrade?
To make a long story short, I recommended a stock to a friend once and told him I would protect his initial investment. It was when I traded penny stocks. I got out in time but he didn't. As a result I funded his account. I have control over trading (he's totally freaked out by the market now)but it is an Etrade account in his name. ETNs are new for me. Things have been going well so far. He's recovered most of his money and I've made some as well. Only playing with a little less than $5000 right now that's why I hate to miss the 200-500 moves. Started with 2000.
I no longer play pennies although sometimes it still feels like it with this play.LOL For those of you that offer help to people here, put INO on your radar. Pharmacueticals are always risky so until you do your own research I don't recommend it but if current trials and partnerships continue it will either go up a lot or be bought out. (most likely by Roche) If you study the charts it moves between 7+ and 11. The CEO and others in the company actively buy.
Again thanks to all of you for what you offer on this board!!!
RB, Cyclycal, Ryan and a few others. Your opinion please. I am starting to be a little more active moving in and out but I have to wait for the three day settlement period every time. As a result I've tried to hit slightly bigger moves only to miss some decent ones. Example this morning I almost pulled the trigger at the opening but decided to wait to see if we pulled back below 3.20. As a result I missed the move to 3.56. If I misjudge a direction and have to sell with a small loss I'm still on the sideline for three days.
What do you think the three day settlement period does to my risk factor as far as missing a bigger move?
delusional-hardly. As I stated in a previous post I hit a sell signal that was too low a couple days ago. Set it at 3.28 because I thought it would take two days to get there. Knew I could re evaluate at the end of the day.
Now I'm just waiting for a pull back to get in again. Just wish I had set it around 3.50 instead. Left a fair amount on the table.
The only decay is happening in peasodos bank account. Has anyone tried to wake him up?
Are there any of our chart people that might be able to offer an opinion on the questions I asked clay. I had set a sell signal at 3.28 previously and didn't really expect it to get hit today. I have to try and guess what I might be able to get back in at.
Thanks!
Clay- First off thanks for your charts and explanations! My question would be is there a pattern to the short traps as you call them. Is there a certain duration that is typical? I would simply like to use the new highs followed by sell offs as sell and buy back opportunities to increase my # of shares. I can see the last two quick rises followed by pull backs. I'm guessing we're about to see another. You're best guess as to how soon the pull back might happen and the depth it might fall to.
Thanks Clay
To be honest that happens with most stocks at some point in their development. It depends on how you play and how much research you do.
It also depends on how much risk you are willing to take.
If you want to learn about quick in and outs check out some of the most followed members on IHUB. Many of them play pennies-which I don't recommend but some have a large enough following that most the plays they are involved with make those moves.
Technology and Pharmaceutical stocks can make huge gains as products come to market or trials end. You just need to be willing to follow them for long periods of time. INO will make huge gains at some point but even with good trial results so far the time between news causes the stock to drop back as it is sold off.
rawiron1- you can always cherry pick examples to fit any argument. He also mentioned he doesn't have money to play with which means he doesn't really want a lot of risk.
Lower value stocks inherently carry a higher degree of risk. Sure you may get a multiplier on a low priced stock but the same can be said for stocks such as google. Higher dollar stocks could also forward split after a big move as well as pay dividends.
The same thing goes for reverse or forward splits. Done for the proper reason either could be a good thing. Done for the wrong reasons and you're screwed.
I just had one reverse split but it was actually to up list which it did. It needed to in order to meet the requirements of the higher exchange.
Not trying to argue, just backing his point since I felt that way when I played penny stocks. Got burned on a number of them when they were halted. Had multiples on others. Odds favored halting.
mypenneys-the other response before this is correct. It's just a mind set. $100 stocks move by dollars everyday. Lesser stocks move by pennies and dimes. You can make the same money with fewer shares.
mypenneys- take one of Clays charts and watch how he uses the candles (the 30 minute time frames) to draw his resistance and support lines. Multiple candles ending in the same area is a good reference. Then you can just extend his trend lines in the direction they have been drawn. As the price continues up (or down) the next line drawn connecting candles will come into play. It will either be support (if moving down) or resistance if moving up. Breaking those lines in either direction and closing for the day, means you have to look for a continuation in that direction.
Those support and resistance lines will correlate to daily bounces and pull backs which of course would be daily buy and sell signals if you trade that way.
If the move goes above the trend line you can continue to ride with a trailing stop that moves along with the up trend. More often than not your trailing stop will get taken out with the size of the movements this stock (ETN) makes.
Don't be afraid to try and draw your own chart. It doesn't take long since you do the same things over and over again. News simply speeds up any movement in a given direction.
I believe the topic was tools. That's what a stop loss or trailing stop is used for. I learn from those that want to teach. Those that just look to argue have nothing to teach.
For all those that post trying to help thank you!!!!