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So much pumping but nobody bidding this morning? My 5.4MM shares at 0.003 is the biggest block thus far - LOL! Got 2.1MM shares on the first dip, waiting for the other 3.25MM shares to fill.
Hey Berkshire agent, Those 5 million shares on the BID at 0.003 are mine. Now, can you answer my earlier question on why VOIS has to sell its soul to scrape together $350K with Joe Abrams on board?
OK, many are agreeing that they are diluting to raise money. How is that a good thing for the short term? Also, why isn't Joe Abrams lending money to them if he thinks it will be successful?
Hello Berkshire, I have 2 questions for you. Let me preface my questions by saying I was a shareholder of VOIS and sold it during this run but am planning to buy back later this week after the consolidation.
1) If Joe Abrams is on board to market this and mint a coin from it, why did he force VOIS to dilute its shareholders to oblivion? OS is up from 1B to almost 2B shares now. $350K is chump change for him...
2) Why didn't VOIS file a patent protection for the blue-tooth design of its BCI device? At least I don't see one...
I agree that they need to sell only 200K devices the first year to make it big. I mentioned the same number on the Yahoo message board coincidentally) But where will they have the money to make these en masse if there is demand? They were crying for $350K before. If they dilute this baby to 4B shares and do a RS, the momentum will be lost for a while. These are my concerns to treating this as an investment vs a trading vehicle.
I filed a SEC complaint. First step to smoking this hoodlum out of his cave...
So who knows a good lawyer? Adam needs to do jail time for this white collar crime. At least they don't have anyone to buy their 105MM shares of junk.
They supposedly made $2.5MM in profit last quarter and got $3M from the Chinese as well but had to sell 5MM shares to pay a $5000 debt and 100MM shares to get $5M in cash? Yup, sounds like a legit operation. Took me a day to realize this is plain fraud but that's exactly what it is. I suggest those who haven't sold not to wait till this falls below a penny again. Take what you can and then we file a lawsuit on Adam Carter..
I decided to take the loss and then file a lawsuit to recover some of it back. I am not stupid to hold till this goes back below a penny with the writing on the wall. And that looks like where it is headed from today's action. Let's get that cheat behind bars!
We did not get any proxy to approve this move. That may be the slip on their part that we can use to file a lawsuit. But with the majority of the shares in Industrias Calissio SUR SA's name, they could approve it themselves. But this goes against the principles of a public company especially because they issued another 100MM restricted shares for no acceptable reason.
I still think they will pump this up with the mine expansions and production increases so that they can sell those shares in the future and make a loot. Right now, there is nobody to sell it to as the supply side is only 800K shares or so. Remember, they still only have a PE of around 10 (according to unaudited filings), which is still reasonable for a copper miner. They will get into a whole lot of trouble if they are cooking the books for the next few years so that they can sell those restricted shares for a nice profit.
We shall see...
If you are thinking of filing a lawsuit, let me know. I will join as well. I agree this is criminal as they don't have to raise money like this if they are making $2.5 million a quarter.
The OTC numbers cannot be right for the following reasons:
1)If there are 5.6M shares in the float, a piddly 54K shares cannot move a stock from 90 cents to 1.70 to 50 cents and back to 1.10!
2)If they did dilute by 105M shares or 3500%, the stock would have fallen to 8 cents by now with large volume (in the millions) each day to maintain the same market cap. And they would have a huge cash hoard of over $100M by now!
3)There must be some sort of notification to the the OTC in Oct to do that scale of dilution, which we don't find under the OTC or any other website. I have seen completely wrong numbers before at the OTC site.
On the topic of the large volume, most of that volume (60%) was in the 1.50 to 1.65 range on the bid. So someone was buying large at above market prices for some reason. Once that entity got the fill, there were no more bids down to 50 cents on Level II and hence the wacky movements in the last minutes of trading. All in all, I think it portends to some clarification from management in the near future because the volume was 15 x normal and most of it was on the bid side.
I think the "new numbers" were the pre-split numbers, accounting for the restricted shares held by insiders, that were added to the actual OS. Since 20% of the AS became unrestricted, 20% of 600M is around what it shows now. All IMO...
boogy, it should move over to the OTC in a couple of weeks. NYSE is quick to de-list, NASDAQ takes longer. It is inconsequential right now. It should bounce hard on the OTC one day to the 0.20s - I am 75% sure of that and hence thinking of doubling down around a nickle if I can get it. If I can bring my average down to 25 cents, there is hope of breaking even on this POS strictly on a technical basis with my past dealings with BK stocks. Not suggesting anyone else to do the same - this is just my plan to minimize losses. Fundamentally, we can look for the silver lining but I have had it with this management.
Congrats shorts. You officially win. Not much else to say. Crazy decision by the ranks of Ross and Baker. I will join the lawsuit or play the bounce. Either way, dreams of a big payday is over...
HIPP vs VELT
HIPP (OTC)
2014 revenue: $34-35M
FCF 2Q13: $-1.6M
Cash: $9.6M
Market cap: $80M
VELT (NASDAQ)
2014 revenue: $42M (after removing 3rd party costs)
FCF 2Q13: -$3.3M
Cash: $26.5M
Market cap: $27M
Both are penny stocks. Both in similar markets. Both will improve incrementally in revenues and cash flow from 2Q13 levels. But HIPP is valued at 3 x VELT on the OTCBB never-the-less! LOL!
Just out of curiosity, what is your position here mikey4? I have stated mine. Do you have skin in the game or just like to spend time on message boards? Here's my Yahoo! response to your re-post of a re-post. I am sure you have read it but for the benefit of others who eschew the Yahoo board...
Edgar, Looks like you are the one emotionally married to this stock. Despite making a killing (supposedly), you spend a lot more time and effort than longs like me, bashing daily to get a few more pennies. However, this bash was a little different. Not that your future 250K short shares is any of my concern. If you can get it, go for it. Let's look at your 12 reasons.
1. Still living in 2011, eh? Sigh!
2. Like your Toyota contract loss nonsense. Your source is looking for another job? Yeah, she is unbiased in her analysis. I am not going to threaten SEC action for posting lies or apparent insider info since the SEC is quite useless when it comes to this kind of stuff. But knock it off, will ya? Makes you look hopelessly desperate - very unlike someone who has minted money here.
3-5,8-9. They did a lot of stupid things in 2011 and 2012. The stupidity has caused the stock to fall from $20 to 20 cents. Is history your favorite subject? How are these examples relevant to the future (from 20 cents)?
6. Maybe true. If they get some money from the Greek (I doubt the govt can afford anything), then why not avail of the opportunity? Their R&D division is based there, no more sales. I don't see the relevance here..
7. They have already consolidated their space, Mr. History buff...
10. OK. But 800-900 employees are still there - too much in my opinion. If the benefits suck - why not leave? Oh, that's why your source is leaving, if she can find a job that is...
11. The stock was $4 when they joined. They knew the transition is going to take a year and the stock could take more hits along the way. I don't think they imagined a BK style hit to 20 cents. Anyway, why take the hits when you are new to the company? They are smart, experienced execs. They are still here? Why? They will amend their employment contracts to include stock options and stock when the reversal starts.
12. What is No. 12 again? Just wanted to make it a dirty dozen?
$34.1M in revenue and -20 cents/share. Very low targets by analysts. I am expecting negative $1-3 million in FCF.
Short position is unchanged as of Oct 15.
Short Interest (Shares Short) 15,629,000
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 15.7
Short Percent of Float 21.13 %
Short Interest - Prior 15,597,300
Short % Increase / Decrease 0.20
The fuel is intact for a sharp reversal when the company eventually shows progress.
She started of by saying they expect improvement, though still negative, but quickly backpedalled by saying that they are not forecasting FCF for 2H13 as mentioned in the last CC. However, she did say that they expect revenue to improve sequentially for 3Q and 4Q. My guess is FCF will improve since:
1) The full benefit of the expense savings will be reflected in 3Q while it only was partially reflected in 2Q.
2) The revenue should increase ~10% over 2Q. Analysts expect $34M.
I expect it to be between negative $1-3M, excluding one time gains or losses.
I am not an MBA. But in the calculation of FCF (from Wikipedia), it subtracts the interest payments for long and short term debt. The numbers in my prior post are from the 2Q13 ER. Interest payment was $291K (~2.5% of principle) for 2Q.
Sounds about right for any company whose stock has fallen 99%. Employees are not going to be doing happy hour at Dave and Busters - that's for sure. I still can't understand how VELT can support 900 employees. This is not an assembly line. But the fact that so many have jobs means that they have not cut operations to the bone and there is plenty of opportunity to trim expenses further, if needed. Morale will return once the leaner company turns profitable and employees start seeing gains in their stock options and stock purchase plan.
The company's IP, customer base, acquired technologies and market potential are currently priced at ZERO at 24 cents. That's the cash they have. They are able to service the debt (part of the -3.3M FCF calculation) with a gross revenue of $31M/quarter. It is going to improve sequentially for the rest of the year. Let's see how the FCF needle moves with it.
Netflix and Tesla were left to die 52 weeks ago. Analysts were talking about unsustainable business models, execution blunders and horrible margins. See where they are now. Market sentiments change in a flash. Is there a market for mobile marketing? Has the company taken actions to turn the ship (now dinghy) around? Are they solvent with the current balance/income sheets and creditor actions? Are Ross's and Baker's pedigree good enough to trust their vision? The answers to these questions should give you an idea of whether to walk away or have some skin in the game.
As for me, I am in no hurry. I can afford to wait to see the probable turn around in a couple of quarters (at least from these levels). Ironically, the royal beating I took on the paper loss column over the past week makes me ever more determined to see this investment through to the end. I still believe in redemption when you invest with logic and facts. If we get to a day when there is irrational exuberance here (like in the case of NFLX and TSLA) or if bankruptcy is likely from the facts in front of me, that's when I will call it a day. We should get a glimpse next month and a much better picture in Feb 2014 - plenty of time to re-evaluate.
Jay and others, here are a few things we know.
1) The drop below the 2 month base (36 cents) started exactly once the quiet period started. The short position is still extremely high and they know the company can't release any news other than the date of the earnings. My take is that they took advantage of a rumor that the CMO left to drop it below 33 cents and see the stops being taken out.
2) The CMO leaving was just a rumor. He still shows as employed with Velti in LinkedIn and twitter,a week after the rumor. There is no SEC filing regarding the same either. VELT is very prompt with filings.
3) Alex Moukas, with all his past shortcomings, still only accepts stock as payment for his CEO services. He had 4 million shares in Feb and I reckon that is over 5 million shares right now. It is in his best interest to see the company recover quickly from this transition period.
4) BK is not possible with the current cash position, current AS, cash burn situation, support of the only creditor (HSBC) and the CRO hired to increase new sales (with 100-200 DSO days). And they are still signing up new customers in 2Q (read transcript). The short fall was mainly due to the Mobclix business "shut down" caused by the non-payment to the developers. The Mobclix sale, even if only for a few million bucks, will add to the cash position of 25 cents/share (assuming $3M burn from Jul-Sep).
5) Earnings estimates have been reduced 50% from -13 cents to -20 cents since Aug 21. But the same analysts still expect 36% growth over the next 5 years from this new baseline.
Anyway, if Ross and Baker are worth their salt, this will be $1.50 by mid 2014, regardless of whether it is 20 or 40 cents right now.
No idea what you are talking about. For the record, I haven't deleted any of your posts so far. Wish you had something useful to say though, other than the price is falling and some guy thinks Velti is going BK. Might as well say that the sky is blue.
So far this is all I found. Krishna Subramanian is still the CMO according to his Linkedin and twitter pages. No SEC filing either. That rumor was what got this below 33 cents in the first place - should be a non-event even if it were true. Apparently it is not true after all. Benzinga reported on the stock fall yesterday on Ameritrade but no news to report. This fall is not news driven from what I can gather. The stock price can be anywhere right now. As long as progress is shown on the business front, we will be back to the mid $1s by next year.
I think this insane drop from a 2 month base was orchestrated by the shorts. They waited till the quiet period started and then naked shorted/sold shares to drop the price below 33 cents and then the stops got taken out. The timing is too coincidental. Can't the company say they know of no news to cause this drop? I am asking them if they can at least put out a PR on this...
beachboy, I already mentioned where I came from and what my position is. To answer some of your questions, HSBC was informed about the write down and the sale of Mobclix, before they extended the $7.5M in July. This was confirmed by Leslie when I spoke to her on Oct 2. As for the lawsuits, no lead plaintiff yet. The losses that triggered the lawsuits was the drop from $1 to 34 cents and the write down. If the stock recovers that loss, where are the 'losses'? The write down was due to Balkan economies failing, not fictitious Accounts Receivables - this can be attested by Deloitte. Finally, they can't file bankruptcy unless they can justify it to avoid paying HSBC. They can't show a justification as far as I can see from their financials. The BK judge will throw it out if they try - not that they are. If you have any new information, I am all ears. I just don't want subjective opinions, mainly based on the past. Thanks.
They are still searching for a lead plaintiff - Oct 21 is the deadline. None identified yet. It would take a long time to get to court and if the stock price goes back to $1 in the mean time (if they show progress), the lawsuits will be thrown out. Write downs are not uncommon, even among blue chips, and they had no control over the Greek and Cypriot economies collapsing. They understood that it could be an issue and moved away from those markets by 1Q13. Frankly, this is the least of my concerns. My main concern is them showing improvement in free cash flow with the expense reductions and gaining new customers in the Americas, Asia and Europe.
The only news is the CMO leaving and that too is not confirmed as indicated earlier. The 30% drop has been on only 5 million shares ($1.5M in dollar terms) while 95 million shares traded above 34 cents. So, it is not high volume per se. From my conversation with IR (posted earlier), there is nothing sinister to account for such a drop. I think it was simply the stops below 33 cents being taken out and the CMO rumor was the excuse to take it below that support. I am holding till VELT turns profitable in 2014 (as re-iterated by Ross in the last call) and trades at a PE of 50+. So, it does not matter if it is 26 cents or 36 cents today though that is a significant fall in % terms. Think of it as a 1 year CD that you can't withdraw till Fall 2014 in the mean time and not concern yourself with the roller coaster on no news.
BTW, Krishna's resignation news only pulls up on Google search on some low traffic blog sites saying he sent an 'email' about his resignation. It does not pull up on Yahoo or bing and his linkedin status and twitter still show him as Velti's CMO. He didn't tweet anything after Oct 12 though he seems quite active on twitter. Plus no SEC filing from the company. Let's wait to see if this is even true before speculating on why he left. But if he actually left, it is not a surprise and could signal a sale of Mobclix as well.
Even if they get just a token amount for Mobclix, say $3M, that is another 3 months of operating cash and $15M off the books. Not to mention, any lawsuits surrounding the non-payment to Mobclix developers. As for headcount, I think more will be let go as 850-900 employees is still too much for the current revenue run rate. I don't think the CMO job will be backfilled. It's nice to have a dialogue going that is not related to ticker-by-ticker stock price, though that is dismal today as well.
Yes, I have read this yesterday. There might be some confusion around the statement "The company has admitted it hasn't been able to "provide sufficient liquidity" for the business, which is now on the block."
He was referring to Mobclix and not Velti.
Also, combining the words "bankruptcy fears" and "delinquent payments" in the same article could cause the mis-informed to worry. I already explained why bankruptcy is nothing to be concerned about at this time. The delinquent payments were to Mobclix publishers/developers, not their creditor (HSBC). Their creditor lent them more money ($7.5M in July) and now have almost $50M riding on the turnaround efforts of the company.
FYI, I noticed you had 4 posts with the same content. As the board moderator, I removed the other 3 duplicates.
The bar to leap over is being set lower each month. Analysts have lowered 3Q EPS from -16 cents to -20 cents. Revenue is pegged at 150M for 2013 and 2014. 2013 EPS estimates is -$1.12 (from -95 cents) and 2014 EPS is -65 cents (from -54 cents). I believe that just like the analysts were over-estimating their targets in the past (by underplaying the Balkan AR and negative FCF), they are underestimating the effect of deep expense cuts ($80M) and post 1Q13 customer mix (Average DSO of around 140 days vs 270 days) now.
Usually, this type of analyst action is considered a negative (duh!) and I would have said that if VELT was trading at $2 or even $1. But at 27 cents, I think it helps the company to beat estimates and move the other direction. They just need to show progress, not profits, and this will turn around violently, thanks to the 15.6M shorts who will serve as fuel at that time. Ross and Baker were still talking about a profitable 2014 after a disaster of a quarter that was 2Q13. They have respectable pedigrees and will not engage in lose talk. I am disappointed that the 7 week, 95M share base was destroyed by just 3.7 million shares but that is just how Wall St works. Pendulums swing wildly in both directions. My focus is on 2014 and I think the extremely low expectations will act as the springboard for a partial recovery to the $1.50-2 range. The mobile ad market is there to capture, the irresponsible money spending ways is history and we have reputable execs running the joint from 1Q13. My view for 2014 does not change with the price today, no matter how low it is.
Looks like this could be the reason.
http://www.adexchanger.com/mobile/mobclix-co-founder-krishna-subramanian-quits-velti/
This was expected news since Mobclix will be sold (or a deal is in place). At least we have a reason for today's action. I can't see why it's a big deal at all. If Ross or Baker left, I would sell. But a CMO who was not even mentioned under senior leadership in Velti's website? Again, I think the main reason was stop loss orders being triggered below 33 cents this morning. From the volume, it looks like some retail investors were dumped. Perhaps the last of the mohicans hanging around since the Aug 21 purge.
Bankruptcy is not possible unless HSBC is run by a bunch of schizos who loan $7.5 million in July and demand receivership 3 months later. Using last quarter's cash burn of -3.3M, they have 7 quarters of cash. The expense cuts are all in place to service revenues at last quarter's run rate and still not bleed more than $1 million/month. Revenues are only going to increase in 3Q and 4Q. So, bankruptcy is just an opinion strictly based on price action. With that being said, I have no idea why the price dropped so sharply this week other than the triggering of retail stop loss orders below 33 cents which held their ground for 7 weeks.
Kinda strange that the stock drops over 20% on a paltry 3M shares (just $1M in dollar terms) in 3 days when over 95 million shares traded above 33 cents since the last material news release on Aug 20. Disappointed by the price action for sure. But the fundamentals have not changed for me to panic since I am holding for 2014 and beyond. They had 28 cents/share in cash ($26M) as of July 2013. Trading right there and totally discounting a hot business that should grow 30% YOY per analysts and insiders (Ross/Baker). Any news that I am missing over the past 3 days? Please post a link if you have any. Thanks.
I looked around and could not find any news regarding Velti. Velti's CMO seemed excited about Velti's market at a recent conference. Velti's competitor is expecting a strong Christmas season. The stock actually went up after the expected NASDAQ letter last week. Today's volume was only half the 3 month daily average. Over 95 Milion shares traded above today's price over the past 7 weeks, after the last ER. I am not an investor who changes sentiment based on the day-to-day stock price. There is no news or volume to attribute today's action to something that is fundamentals related. If anyone knows of any news that I missed (other than shareholder lawsuits), please share with the board. Thank you.
Though a survey from a competitor, the mobile advertising market is expected to do well this Christmas season, as expected.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hipcricket-survey-indicates-mobile-drive-211013882.html
Oh no! A trader follows me from Yahoo. Just kidding. Thanks for the compliments. So far, I have to agree with you that there is a dearth of any good information here. Let's see if I can get a good group of longs (and shorts) here who talk about current developments and events. Later...
Hedge Funds that bought at $1.50:
Park West Asset Management LLC ($760M portfolio) bought 7,912,547 shares
Harvest Capital Strategies LLC ($1.3B portfolio) bought 3,666,667 shares
Renaissance Technologies Corp ($38.1B portfolio) bought 1,148,700 shares
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. ($1.5B portfolio) bought 1,334,268 shares
All the above held as of 6/30/13 when the stock was $1.40, and the price has only fallen since then. So, they didn't flip their shares between $1.80 and $2.10 like some would like us to believe. Given that VELT constitutes only a tiny fraction of their total portfolios, I don't believe they did or will do any window dressing on this position. Together with the 22.5M shares already confirmed between mutual funds and insiders, that will be 36.5M locked from retail or 50% of the float. So the current short position of 15.6M shares is closer to 42% of the free float (available to retail), and that is not including any naked shorts.
Findings from call with IR on Oct 2, 2013.
I spoke to Leslie and got some new information to share for a change.
1) The CRO, Scott Avila, was hired to gather best practices and strategies to garner new business and grow organically in the US. That is his ONLY role. It's not to restructure the company or stating the obvious, not to file bankruptcy! That was a relief to me and I am sure to some of the other longs here.
2) News flash. The $111M write down represents ALL, I repeat, ALL of the Greek/Cypriot Accounts Receivable. Not part, or most, but ALL. What does this mean? They are expecting ZERO dollars from these accounts and anything they get is icing. Second, there will be no more write downs in the future as everything is done and over with. So, no more guessing games on how much more of their AR is uncollectable. All the bad blood has been sucked out by our good leach.
3) DSOs for US, Asia and Latin America are less than 100 days. For Western Europe, it is closer to 200 days but their payment record is solid. There has been zero sales in Greece and Cyprus since 2Q13 and going forward. All of the current AR is from good standing geographies of less than 200 days (for W Europe) and less than 100 days for the rest.
4) Jeffries (not Deloitte) is helping with the Mobclix sale. They want to do it ASAP. The liabilities to the Mobclix publishers is $13-15M like I guessed. That was what was deferred as Accounts Payable last quarter. This liability will be absorbed by the buyer of Mobclix.
5) The $40M in expense (mostly from down sizing and re-org) and $40M in capital (mostly from moving away from capital intensive enterprise business, not R&D cuts) will show their full effect from the last quarter (3Q13) onwards.
6) All of Moukas's compensation is in company stock.
7) FCF will be negative for 3Q but improving from 2Q. She can't talk about FCF guidance as that was not publicly announced. FCF is their highest priority.
8) They expect to receive the Nasdaq de-listing letter tomorrow and they will file a 6K regarding the same. They have till 31 Dec to comply or Nasdaq can de-list on Jan 7, 2014. Even she commented that it is a long time away and nothing to be done for now. They will appeal the ruling in late Dec only if needed.
9) They are in constant dialogue with HSBC and their only creditor is supportive of their turnaround plan. The $7.5M was extended after they were told about the write down and Mobclix sale initiatives. There will be NO PIPE though they have 52M shares more in their AS. They don't want to dilute anymore. Capital needs and cash burn will be dependent on collecting from their new AR (non Baltic) and getting new business since all the expense cuts are in place. The CRO was hired to help in increasing sales.
10) No active hiring or layoffs. New positions are only to backfill any voluntary attrition.
Institutional holdings update:
Fidelity Management and Research Company: 7,127,908 shares. Change: -2,069,257 shares
Fidelity Select Software and Computer Sv: 2,445,500 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Select Electronics Portfolio : 2,031,650 shares. Change: +1,616,250 shares
Fidelity Dividend Growth Fund: 1,639,166 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Advisor Stock Selector Mid Cap Fund: 215,084 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Advisor Dividend Growth Fund: 192,692 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Select Telecommuncts Portf: 145,900 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity® Stock Selector All Cap Fund: 45,983 shares. Change: -101 shares
Fidelity Advisor Electronics Fund: 34,420 shares. Change +27,350 shares
Fidelity Asset Manager 50% Fund: 30,996 shares. Change -57 shares
Fidelity Asset Manager 70% Fund: 19,948 shares. Change +21 shares
Fidelity Total: 13,929,247 shares as of 8/31/13
Variable Insurance Products Fund III-Balanced Portfolio. 284,296 shares. Change 0 shares. 8/31/13
Pyramis Global Advisors, LLC. 148,174 shares. Change -134,185 shares. 8/31/13
PowerShares NASDAQ Internet. 44,763 shares. Change 0 shares. 10/07/13
PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid. 42,141 shares. Change 0 shares. 10/07/13
Dreyfus Select Managers Small Cap Val Fd. 72,400 shares. Change 0 shares. 8/31/13.
Total holdings of above institutions: 14,521,021 shares. 20% of float.
Net selling: 559,979 shares (0.56M)
Total volume from Aug 21-31: 58.4M shares
There are institutions that bought 16M shares @ 1.50 that have not reported yet. They didn't sell at $1.40 on 6/30 and I bet they didn't sell much, if any, after the crash. From the partial data above, it is clear the big boys did not bail, even as the stock crashed 66% and traded 58.4 MILLION shares in the first 10 days from Aug 21-31. I am sticking with the big boys on this one.