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I think its important to note that Lehman's administrator is the same guy who was named the administrator for the City of Detroit. I'm guessing the legal teams (and there are hundreds on Lehman) know each other.
This Lehman thing is interesting in that the expected ratio keeps increasing. I think in the article it estimates payout at something like 38%. A few years back I watching the Lehman trainwreck play out as I owned a stake that had a claim against Lehman for $80M. As part of the BK process at that time it appeared that unsecured debtors were getting 1-2%. Its now up to 38%. In the case I was watching I think that $80M claim was sold for $400k or .5%. That $400k investment is now worth $28M-that is a solid return.
I've been wondering about this and thought this was the most likely scenario as the idea has been banded about since back to 2011.
I've been assuming that the Surplus notes trade around 70 (do I have that correct? - I 'd believe there is a CUSIP - does it trade.
If that was the case I was hoping they would be able to buy a bunch at the discount and retire it. That would be accretive to book value. Also, if NYSID allows them to make dividend payments to the parent I would assume that they would be close to allowing them to write new business.
I assume Quicken Loans. They are a major business who has decided to move many jobs downtown. They kind of were the ones that broke the dam. Other companies and individuals have followed their lead.
I was just in Detroit about a month ago and before going I spent a lot of time looking at properties for sale. Stuff near the water and where the downtown redevelopment has been is going for a good price. However there are parts of Detroit that are still really cheap and I mean it can change in a few blocks.
The $1-1000 homes are gone but you didn't want those anyway. The money to be made was in the $20k house. Those are now $60-80k.
There is optimism there that hasn't been there before. One guy I joked with laughed and said "Hey we aren't Flint!"
They have nothing to do with each other.
thanks for sharing. do you have this calculation for the past several years?
I'm not exactly sure what it means either. I have been watching more for year over year or sequential quarter changes.
May be a good question for investors relations.
Is this what you were talking about? The net change is not a ton.
Slide labeled 6 - (slide 7 of 20 including coverpage)
Notes:
1 For the three months ended 3/31/2016, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of six structured single risk credits
($208.2 million).
2 For the three months ended 12/31/2015, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of five structured single risk credits
($202.7 million).
3 For the three months ended 9/30/2015, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of six structured single risk credits
($177.1 million).
Notes:
1 For the three months ended 3/31/2016, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of a public finance credit ($48.1 million).
2 For the three months ended 12/31/2015, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of a public finance credit ($47.7 million).
3 For the three months ended 9/30/2015, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of a public finance credit ($44.6 million).
I somehow missed this post earlier.
Thanks for the color. I agree with you on the ratios. I probably should go through the others and see what theirs are. (Maybe this weekend).
Someone had mentioned something about $200M in the footnotes as something that had happened after the financial statements due to the end date but before publication. I cannot seem to find that message now and I've gone through the footnotes that I can find. Anybody else know what this is?
My wish for 2016 is not for Syncora to allow a dividend but instead for the NYSID to allow them the flexibility to buy back massive amounts of their surplus notes at a discount. That would grow the book value massively in the next few years.
Sent a note to Syncora PR person asking if a date had been sent for the previously announced conference call or if they meant that it would be after the Q2 earnings release which would mean July 15th.
He replied within a few hours that the meeting is expected to happen before June 30th but that the date, time and type of conference call has not been set as I had also inquired if Syncora would be taking questions ahead of time or during the call.
My guess is that they are waiting for resolution on something (presumably PR) so that at that point they can tell and sell their story.
God- What a crappy website syncora.com is. The press release linked to isn't on the website, neither is the previous statement from a few weeks ago about the planned release of financials and conference call.
Just glancing at the Op Supplement shows nothing of note (That's a good thing!). Income Statement is really irrelevant at this point. Balance sheet (which is where my focus is) surplus has increased by $250M since this period last year.
Leverage ratios decreased to 4.4 and 35 from 4.5 and 36.3 as of 12/31/15. Last year at this time it was 6.7 and 47.
When does NYSID feel comfortable with this and let Syncora buy back their surplus notes.
Anybody know what the surplus notes are trading at? Was it in the 70s?
Watch list consistenty looks better each quarter as both the #'s and $s are decreasing and moving down in risk.
Only negative I see is that the average rating of the NPOs are moving down and it wasn't that good to start with.
Puerto Rico's stuff looks relatively unchanged from the end of Q4 2015. Page 17 has a new chart specifically for Puerto Rico so clearly they want to talk about it.
There is no date on the conference call correct? I assume they will want to talk Puerto Rico as the stock moves somewhat on that news. If so I would expect this call might be delayed until some soft of finalization there? Others?
Just skimmed the filing. Have not input it into my spreadsheet yet but seems to be an increase over the first half of the year in downtime and throughput. (I am missing Q3 data for some reason so I have to check it.
Overall things look like steady improvement. Would like to understand their schedule of when this $12M of capital improvement should be done and when we can start to see improvement to not only past 15k/bpd but closer to their stated goal of 30k bpd.
I have not been able to find any documentation within the state of Texas website that allows them to increase to 30k bpd. I may have to go to the annual meeting if they give more than a week window like last year.
Company is borrowing $10M ($7M net)
Some good news hidden in the article.
with new equipment (recent capital spending) they have been running at 14000 bpd up from the 10-12k average over the past 6 quarters.
Great!
New loan will build tanks to increase storage which is needed as they plan to increase production from 15k to 30k bpd.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2016/01/05/blue-dolphin-secures-funding-to-expand-eagle-ford.html
I own a few shares of this EI. Hope all is well with you.
Have any ideas on what is going on with his. Haven't been able to keep up with my investments lately.
I need to read that MTA agreement. I bet that we cannot write business for another year. My understanding of these agreements is that the MTA will slowly build trust so that is what I am using in my assumption.
Did I read that right that the company can buy upto $100M of preferreds/surplus notes. What are those selling at? If they were able to buy $100M of surplus notes today what would that do to the ABV?
Not sure how much you have watched this but the last few months have been interesting.
A Disclosure statemtent has been approved in principle. An agreement between basically all parties (debtors, equity committee, class action (plantiffs)) have all been agreed to. There is one large holdout however and that is Brooks himself.
A current plan was filed earlier this week and their is a waterfall analysis. The midpoint, which I consider to be likely shows that common equity should receive $6.1M. Using the current sharecount that is worth $.10/share.
However, I do agree with you that any payout would be years into the future as the monies that would be paid out are being held by the Criminal court case until the appeals process is exhausted. There is $35M that has been held for many years which is available and is being used to push the plan through (and pay the lawyers) but without resolution of the appeals - neither the creditors nor any shareholders or original class action holders will see a dime.
Based on the time delay and illiquidity I don't know its not trading at $.05 or below. (I'd be a buyer there)
Just a heads up. Unlike trades on the NYSE trades on the OTC go through a market maker so you really have to take the total shares traded and divide by two to really understand how many shares really traded.
Remember that somebody linked the post from Investor 49. My guess is that there was a buyer and the market maker knew it and offered him a half cent lower to buy the block. The MM buys the whole lot and sells it back at a half cent higher.
This is a very important line and post to me.
Clearly part of Gator and my investment was that eventually Syncora would be able to write new business.
Others here invested in the melting ice cube that even if they never wrote policies again there still would be some of the ice cube.
Anybody have any idea of why NYS will require for the company to be writing business again? Their old agreement before the MTA in 2008 required a shareholders surplus of $66M IIRC.
completely disagree. When you chart this out and see how only the US sales are really driving any real growth and even then with a full quarter the odds of this getting it are in this range. The sales price is appropriate imo.
We've also been getting hurt by the European sales due to the strengthing of the dollar.
Brand - You must be careful imitating Snowball like that. I read it until the last sentence and I was thinking.
"Damn he screwed up. He is the same guy as Snowball. He just signed into the wrong account."
Every day that they delay on American Roads is a business that is worth less like a melting ice cube.
I haven't been to Detroit and haven't kept up but a new bridge will be built. That bridge will first damage the ambassador bridge first and foremost but it will also affect this.
A true operator of the tunnel would make the changes to the tunnel to match the ambassador bridge (move customs to one side, create a fuel zone in the tax free area) as that is where the bridge makes its profits. The toll road pays for the maintenance.
Appreicate it. And I completely get why you sold. I would have done the same if I had been a current shareholder.
Using the $.69 gets you a PE ratio of right at 15 which I agree is probably not a good fair price nor a steal, maybe on the high side for an illiquid stock without financials. I wonder if they hired the law firm to establish a buyout price for the minority holders but felt that had to have some market transactions to use as documentation to use as to clear the price otherwise it looks like some insider dealings.
What is strange is that even though they sent this to you they are unwilling to share with the market their financials. Assuming they were the buyers of the 250k shares traded in the market and the bought the approximately the 500k shares from the minority brothers its interesting to see what they were doing. Back in 2001 (the place I was able to find shares outstanding they only had 4.4M shares outstanding and 2M of float. Since then the have issued 3M shares to insiders. That would be issuing about 200k shares/year.
I think they may go dark after this again and it may be a buying opportunity although I expect them to simply take it private as they would have a maybe 80% of the shares.
I'm thinking about it. There are some people who are convinced this is a scam and it may drift down. Your post on them paying out the minority group explains to me why they chose the price.
I'd be glad to pay you to send me the full copy. If not if you can scan a few pages of any financial statements and any letter explanation. If you want me to send it you just email me at mrholty at Hotmail dot com and we can set it up.
As I am not a current shareholder they will not send me a package.
Bob-
Anyway you can send me that packet? Or where you got the discussion on the minority shareholders selling.
I assume when you said they are selling out $6M that is at the $10.59/shares or about 560k shares. The best of my knowledge is they have 7M shares outstanding so it would be a little less than 10%.
Regards,
mrholty at Hotmail (.) com
Where did you find shares to short?
I left a message for the number on the letter. The email address is based at a law firm. This whole thing is weird. The company has 7M shares outstanding and a float of only 2.2M as of 2012 when they issued 1 year of financials and then went dark. Their previous time of issueing financials was 2001.
I don't know if that is because of the sales but I will tell you that I was about 80% of todays transcations.
You still in this?
I've been looking at this again and IRD up in Canada. IRD is cheaper on P/R basis but there appears to be more growth here.
Overall, both of these companies need to consolidate with others and drive out a bunch of SG&A costs.
Exactly Linda.
I just sat and read it. This cleared up the confusion of who owned the anchor litigation. thia cleans up and Claire's a little but still doesn't put Dimeq hiders in the clear. Reading this just frustrates me further about during BK that it was deemed the same as common equity. It brought back some emotions that I've tried to move on from.
Phillip- I hope you are right.
I sold my shares after the ruling and considered keeping them but I never did. I hope you guys get it all.
I don't think its over and I just skimmed the linked amount but I it appears that this clears a hurdle. I expect more hurdles in the future for you but this is in the right direction.
It's good results. Down over 1q last year which is what people will focus on but it shows what happens when they run the plant with no downtime even in this world of lower oil prices. Margin as a percentage has seemed to stabilize in the last two quarters but of course the margin per barrel is less in absolute dollars.
Remember last year that they had a great q1 as well but had lots of downtime in q2 and q3. If they can get this fixed they should be earning almost 1.40/ share annually at current daily barrels per day. Once that is done they can focus on getting the daily volume up.
Still long.
Is this trading?
I don't see a bid/ask.
Is it suspended?
Littlefish-
I agree with much of what you write on smallcaps and mgmt for some and I can’t be suspicious in how BDCO came about. Carroll owned the Plant and sold it to Lazarus. He could have kept 100% of it but I think he needed the capital to get the plant running. (to be honest I need to spend more time looking at this)
I did want to post about your thoughts on Carroll/Lazarus skimming $750k off the top each month. My first take on this was like you but I’ve realized that he is running a tight ship. In essence BDCO is paying to run the plant (up to $750k per month but with penalties and incentives). Because of this I look at what they pay to refine a barrel and I include mgmt. costs and for the Q it was around $3.68 a barrel and is considerably less than other larger peers (I allocate almost all expenses to the refinery as I consider the pipeline and mgmt. expenses to be fixed). It is also basically flat to prior quarters. (they report a lower number in the $2’s). Because of that I don’t think you can take the OI and add back in $9M. Either you pay this company or you pay your own staff.
Also note that corporate expenses are down by 25% YOY so they watch that closely and would be a way to suck money out of the company as well via consulting or other agreements.Nothing I see here is sketchy but I am watching closely. When the founder owns 80% you easily could get squashed. If this changes I’ll be leaving.
Other things that make sleep well at night is the fact that mgmt. has signed their own names and collateral on the loans. I’ll be happy when the pay off the $1.3M Notre Dame Loan and its 16% interest in 2016. I’d like to see them pay it early but they just extended it from 2015 and they do need a cash balance I’m ok with it. The rest of their debt is at 5.75 – 6.00% if I’m not mistaken and appear to pay down debt aggressively as the covenants allow.
Operationally, they still have the ability to increase both the daily output from 11.8k bbls/day to the permitted amount of 15k/day and reduce the days of downtime. Q1 of last year they had no downtime and ran at 81% of daily capacity. Both historical highs for the company. They purposely took 7 days of downtime last summer to do capital improvements (see the $1.4M spend) and they also are spending $500k on a capital lease that was delivered in Q4 2014 and put into service in Q1 2015 will help this amount. The labor to run the plant is highly fixed so I was watching to see how the margin did and it stayed stable.
I was long before and see no reason to sell and some reasons to buy. If you take the last three quarters and exclude the $5M of tax credits they have earned $.33/share. Annualized that is $.45/share x 10x = $4.50 shareprice which to me looks like a floor. Any operational improvement should really flow directly to the bottom line. In fact I was really happy to see the margins increase even as the oil price declines in the quarter.
To what are you referencing?
Thank you. I hope this gets stickied to the top.
These are all positives for the common. As of right now IMPHO is a broken stock. IMPHP has a little more value due to voting rights and maybe IMPHO will get pulled along when there is resolution with IMPHP.
Right now imo IMPHO is a binary event stock.
FD: I own both IMPHO, IMPHP.
The reason the stock didn't sell off was that people are still buying the top line growth and the fact that while the Q was released during hours it was released at 3:20(ish) and the market closed at 4:00. I expect that most people expected the earnings after the market. The majority of the volume was after the release as it looks like somebody sold. There was 50k shares sold after the release. Looks like the first 12k just hit the open bids at .43 and .42 and then left the other 22k there at .42 which somebody picked up. Then another 15k went off right before the close at .40. I don't understand how it closed at .45 as the last trade that I see was at that .4011.
If that is the case I think we are back in the mid 30s today.
He probably has a 105b (?) on file somewhere. They are not required to be filed and publicly available so he uses it to his advantage. I think its a positive but cannot be sure.
Interesting 8K. New(ish) director took his Board pay of $10k in shares instead of cash. Received 1613 shares @ a value of $6.2/share. With the price sitting in the $4.50 range that is a board member that thinks the upside is better.
Came across this article on the debate about how consultants are incentivized to overstate traffic projections. The discussion here is with regards to the Indiana toll roads but would also relate to American Roads.
https://medium.com/@nelthorpe/no-really-it-is-all-about-the-traffic-forecasts-9b6d881f11e3
Additional discussion/articles:
http://usa.streetsblog.org/2014/11/18/the-indiana-toll-road-and-the-dark-side-of-privately-financed-highways/
http://usa.streetsblog.org/2014/11/19/how-macquarie-makes-money-by-losing-money-on-toll-roads/
http://usa.streetsblog.org/2014/11/20/the-great-traffic-projection-swindle/
I don't think its due to other physicians waiting on FDA approval. I wonder if its a delay in timing between approval at a country level (Germany) and setting up reimbursement with the private insurers. My understanding of the Germany system is that now Sanofi would have to negotiate with up to 180+ insurance companies to set up pricing/reimbursement/plans.