Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Got a little volume today… board’s been very quiet
down "I'm looking forward to a positive report for this quarter, and for the year, with earnings somewhere around .40- .45/ share for the quarter." That is very close to my guess for the third quarter. I agree that these shares look cheap. Nevertheless I sold my 2,000 shares about 3 weeks ago. I am up not much less than 100% in my new more risky investment. After having burnt my fingers in TMNA and TIO I will not recommend it to anybody.
Crack spread for jet fuel remains inn a range of $25-38. For perspective, that is not as high as the historic highs in 2022, but considerable better than the spread during the Q2 2023 period, when the spread was in the $15-20 range.
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
In the Q3, when the spread rebounded to the $30-40 range, BDCO actually had higher earnings than the Q2 2022, when the spread was even higher, in the $35-45 range. So the company is becoming more profitable, even at a slightly lower spread.
I suspect part of the reason is they are slowly but surely reducing the debt load. I'm looking forward to a positive report for this quarter, and for the year, with earnings somewhere around .40- .45/ share for the quarter. That would make for a second year of annual earning of about $2/share.
At $2/share in earnings, we are trading at a PE of just over 2. Still very cheap.
There is also tax loss selling right now, and with almost everything else up, people gotta sell oil stocks.
'Tis the season.....
Happy to make someone else's tax loss selling my bargain-priced shares.
I've decided to wait and post my prediction of BDCO earnings for the quarter after the company posts actual earnings. Much easier to make an accurate prediction at that point.
I will say this, at $4/share and below, I've been buying more shares. Even at just .50/quarter in earnings, the PE here is 2.
I think we will have some quarters at around $.50 earnings, and others higher.
Oil companies, as reported this morning on CNBC, are severely oversold and BDCO is oversold as well.
Would really appreciate your thoughts on Q4 earnings.
Thanks
downtheharch I assume you refer to me. What you attribute to me is false. I did not KNOW what the results would be and never claimed that I did. What I stated, which was true, was that I guessed in advance what it would be, and that the guess was quite close to the number that turned out to be the case. This was quite a rough guess on my part. I have a weak memory and I forget most information in a few weeks. Therefore I now forget the crack spread during the third quarter. My impression is though that it is not very different from what has been during the current quarter. This would suggest earnings between 40 and 50 cents during the current quarter. I remember though that earnings per share were surprisingly high during the same quarter last year, exceeding one dollar per share. I don't know if this had something to do with the time of the year. If it had a guess could be that the numbers will be a bit better in this quarter than in the preceding quarter.
Maybe we should ask the poster who claimed he knew what the results for Q3 would be, but waited until after the Q3 numbers were posted by the company to declare his prediction was correct.
Re: 4th Q financials
Any thoughts on earnings for this quarter?
The global average jet fuel price rose, propelled by much higher prices in North America where jet demand was expected to be high because of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
Thanks for the update.
Hopefully that may help move the share price at some point. I am curious, though, about what else it's going to take. Since the company does no promoting, is the news about a sale to a Biggie what it's going to take to significantly move things?
After a slight dip in October, the crack spread for jet fuel, BDCO's primary product, is once again climbing.
Over $35/ barrel according to IATA tracking
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
retired "Predictions and hopes are all we have until the facts come. :)" I agree.
Now now boys. Hale to the queen, king or dictator. Whatever fits. Predictions and hopes are all we have until the facts come. :)
down It is easier to imply that I lie than to trust what I state it appears. I claim that I expected earnings per share would be in the range 40 - 50 cents weeks before any information was available. In the European country where I live veracity and integrity are valued. I have experienced time and again that US posters don't believe me when I state that I am invested in stocks and at the same time present negative assessments of the companies. I am happy that I live in a country where honesty is esteemed.
Always easier to predict earnings AFTER the 10Q is filed! My revised prediction is that earnings for BDCO will be $.47 for Q3
gosox I had expected it to be between 40 and 40 cents but did not publish my expectation since the poster who is supposed to have a better ability to assess this question expected more or less twice my expectation. I therefore expected to be found fault with because too pessimistic if I had ventured a figure. In actual fact it turned out that my assessment was realistic.
Solid performance.
I'm holding as long as they continue improving the debt situation and generating solid profit.
It looks like if conditions remain relatively stable, they are generating about $2.00/year in earnings.
The stock should be selling for at least 4-5 times earnings, which is more like $8-10/share.
BDCO remains undervalued, IMO
Re: Today's 10Q
Any thoughts on the 10Q? Earnings of .47 for the Quarter and $1.69 for the year.
Thanks for your election work. Democracy is under constant attack here and your work is important and much appreciated.
Not a problem.... I had missed that, as I was working the election here on Nov 7, and was exhausted on the 8th!
The 8K is an announcement relating to a contract with a BDCO subsidiary dating to 2019 for oil storage at the Nixon storage and terminaling facility originally with Pilot Travel Centers, assigned later to Tartan Oil Co. According to the 8K, Tartan provided 60-day notice that it was canceling the storage agreement as of Dec 31, 2023.
As far as I can tell oil storage and terminaling is a pretty small piece of BDCO's revenue, so this should not have much effect on revenues or earnings.
My bad There is an 8k out that was filed yesterday, 11/8/23.perhaps someone can open it and report back here. Thanks
Form 8-K BLUE DOLPHIN ENERGY CO For: Nov 08
2:26 PM ET, 11/08/2023 - US Securities and Exchange Commission
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20231108/A6B45Q2CZC22FZZ5222L2ZZBCWPCZS22Z252
Filed on: November 8, 2023
Funny that there were sellers selling over 20,000 shares this morning at under 4.30, now no sellers with 3,000 shares on offer at $4.45
Congratulations to anyone who bought BDCO on sale today at 4.20 or thereabouts.....shares are worth much more.
Down it goes..... and back up it comes!!
Crazy trading today.
10Q for Q3 is not out yet.
Just checked SEC's EDGAR site, and the last quarterly report was filed August 15.
BDCO usually does not file until the last day allowed, which would be November 15.
So I don't expect the filing until the 14th or 15th.
The Quarterly came out yesterday, but I'm having computer problems accessing it. Maybe the earnings were disappointing again??
I agree. I'm still here and very puzzled by the volume increase. I keep focusing on the CEO's purchase of about 70,000 shares for $270,000 a few months ago.
WHere is everybody? In months past, with the stock down this much, the board would have been buzzing with speculation.
They rarely leak earnings, so I doubt it is that. Is it the fall in oil prices? That shouldn't have much effect, as they are a refiner. Only affects them if the price continues declining, so they end up paying more for oil input than they get from outputs. If the drop is temporary, or sporadic, should have little impact.
I am at a loss as to why we are seeing such a dramatic decline on relatively high volume.
I'm thinking it will be much better. :)
He's in his 60s(maybe even older) I think ,so a sale certainly makes sense at some point. Do you envision any kind of time frame for that happening?
It's its real value!
Excellent points. Thanks
The lack of promotion is likely due to the extremely high inside ownership.
Jonathan Carroll owns either driectly or through his owned entities, over 80% of the shares.
He clearly knows, and appreciates, the real value of the shares he owns. Why promote, when if he ever decides to sell, it will be in a transaction to sell the whole company, at a price he knows to be fair.
No need to promote, and have the day-to-day price of the stock reflect it's real value in that circumstance.
For us other shareholders, of course, that is frustrating.
But I'm comfortable holding here, with my interest aligned directly with the CEO and 80% owner.
I think we get a sale to a larger operator at some point, at a nice premium.
We also could get a dividend re-instatement, which would unlock the value as well.
One thing I've never understood about BDCO is why no effort is ever made to promote the stock. Granted the last quarter was very disappointing, but the previous ones were quite good and the financials on 11/15 could be very good.
Thanks. Sounds great if it happens.
These guys are notoriously hard to predict, but based on all the other revenues and profits being reported by other U.S. refiners, the 3rd quarter was a great one for refining margins.
So BDCO should have another quarter of near $1.00/share in profit.
re: Nov. 15 financials
What kinds of numbers are you expecting?
Crack spread for jet fuel declines a bit, but still twice what it was pre-pandemic, at over $30/barrel:
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
I was buying the same days he was, apparently.
Love it that I am buying at the same price as the CEO.
I think this is going to be a very good quarter, when the results are announced around Nov 15.
Would be nice to see debt paid off, and maybe consideration of a little dividend.
Double no for me. :)
No. Come on man…
Forgot to add: Check out the postings at BDPT by Powerbattles, an amazing researcher.
While we're waiting here, you might check out BDPT.: Management takes no salary. It's Audited reporting and has Patents valued at $780,000,000!!
It's currently trading at .0033. Worth checking out.
Thanks for all your DD here.
Oil Price.com reports that U.S. will lose 2.5 million bpd during maintenance season this year.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-To-Lose-25M-BPD-In-Refining-Capacity-This-Maintenance-Season.html
Refinery maintenance season? Trying to time re-entry.
We will be rewarded here.
This is a solid company, in a cash generating business. Good place to be in a high interest rate environment.
Thanks for the update. Still holding.
Followers
|
76
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
4292
|
Created
|
03/30/05
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Blue Dolphin Energy Company is a publicly traded Delaware corporation, headquartered in Houston, primarily engaged in the
refining and marketing of petroleum products to be used as jet fuel, or as "a light sweet crude."[2]
The company also provides tolling and storage terminaling services. 60 acres of assets, which are located in Nixon, Wilson County, Texas
primarily include a 15,000 bbl/d (2,400 m3/d)[3] crude distillation tower and more than 1.0 million barrels of petroleum
storage tanks (collectively the “Nixon Facility”). Pipeline transportation and oil and gas operations are no longer active.[4][5]
Since 2006 through 2014, according to the chief executive regarding this facility, in-kind with his other similar
facility at the time, “...there were some issues with the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) that we were not made
aware of, and those issues have yet to be resolved.”[6]
As of 2014, 45 workers were employed at this facility.[7]
Lazarus ENERGY is a Subsidiary of Blue Dolphin
https://www.lazarusenergy.com/
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |