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iandy,
With the proviso that I generally tend to be optimistic, and based on my trust in the intelligence of the people at Ariad and the benefit of consultation with the best experts in the Sarcoma community (especially with the availability 5 years of clinical data with the drug), I think they had raw materials to design the trial to give Rida the best shot showing efficacy. I put the chances at 80 to 90 percent.
Unfortunately, whatever the outcome, there's no way to retroactively determine who was right, the "crapshooters" or the "50 percenters" or the more optimistic ones.
BTW, my interpretation of Dew's "it's not a crapshoot" is that he thinks it's better than 50/50.
Regards,
A.
iandy,
You're making an interesting point about the risk of over anthropomorphizing, BUT, I do disagree in the case of Ariad. From a bird's eye view, you can abstract away the human factor, and just look at the way members of the category "biotechs" behave. But in fact the element that has been abstracted out is the goals, ambitions and personalities of the individual actors that give the whole enterprise its forward momentum.
To the extent that the personalities do make a decisive difference (and I think they do), and if posters do offer opinions about the motivations of "The Harv", then it makes sense to remind people that the most direct knowledge we have of Dr.Berger's goals is whatever it is that he tells us. And, what he says about his hopes for the company comports well with my personal sense of the type he (Dr.Berger) is, based on working at a number of small entrepreneurial companies, and the fact that they're not just trying to make a bundle, but that they're pushing the frontiers of clinical medicine, an activity that has both humane elements, and pride in scientific achievement.
To sum it up, if your perspective is that "The Harv" and this "pig" should be analyzed in the most cynical way, then you're definitely barking up the wrong tree (and I"m not suggesting that you are in that category!). The personalities that drive Ariad are complex, and we can only speculate, but I take the least complicated route, which is to listen to what they say.
2damoon,
you say:
i
BTH says:
2damoon,
You suggest that Merck might be willing to pay $20 today, but would have to pay twice that in 2 years. This would certainly be highly motivating for Merck, but is takes two to tango. As an owner of Ariad, wouldn't you be willing to wait 2 years to double your gain? Why wouldn't Dr.Berger? Keep in mind that he's not in this just for the money. He actually enjoys his job, and the glory of bringing two more blockbuster drugs to the clinic (and very likely more, if as promised, he's got more in the pipeline).
Everybody ignores Dr.Berger's oft stated goal of building a standalone biotech (I know, there's a lot of crap on this board about not trusting "the Harv", aside from dubious assessments of his honesty, just think about him as a type, smart, ambitious, extremely successful, with glory and fame to be had, he's not dreaming of snoozing in a hammock in the Bahamas, he's a driven man, and will continue to push ahead with Ariad).
Please note, Merck has no special privileges when it comes to buying Ariad. Besides, if Merck wanted to buy Ariad, would they have agreed to the new arrangement, that in fact makes Ariad more secure financially? I don't think so.
2damoon1,
you said: "it's looking currently like $25 within 2 years"
I'm curious what assumptions you're making. Let's say that in 2 years the following conditions hold:
1. SUCCEED is a yes
2. There's one or more other indications for Rida where data is strong
3. ALK drug is in phase 2, with strong data (ie. another blockbuster)
4. Pona is approved for 2nd line, and there's a demand (by patients/doctors) to move it up to 1st
5. Pona is moving thru P2 for solid tumors
And there are other possibilities, such as another pre-clinical stage drug announced by Ariad,
Bellicum (since that's been mentioned) getting some positive results.
Certainly, 1 thru 5 is very reasonable to expect, do you really think that that's only worth 25 bucks?
(Yeah, I know, it's become de rigueur around here to assume that this "pig" and "The Harv" are just not first class stuff, and that SUCCEED has only a 50 percent chance, and that "the street" just doesn't like "the Harv", and other such risible notions, ignore all of that nonsense).
There are plenty of biotechs with substantially less achievement, and a PPS in the $35 to $45 range.
Just curious about where that $25 comes from.
grandma,
Unfortunately, people do pile on, don't they (No, it's NOT a non-sensical question!!!). I personally assumed that all sales will result in some compensation for Ariad, but really did not spend too much time on the issue (esp. since I do not have a copy of the contract).
BUT, the fact is that they could structure the agreement any damn way they want to, and it's logically possible, and not even unlikely that compensation is in some way contingent on specific disease, time, place, favoring upfront payments over later compensation, etc., in other words, the question of NOT non-sensical.
Sometimes a simple, gracious answer, yes or no, is enough, without editorializing about the poster!
Best regards,
A.
Anecdotal stories of failures over the years by other companies in no way proves that the outcome of the SUCCEED trial is a "crapshoot". That implies that Ariad learned nothing from the data collected over many years, and that they (and outside collaborators) were utterly incompetent in identifying patients who would most benefit from Rida. Otherwise you have to believe that the design of the trial is skewed toward success.
BioTechHedge says:
Unsolicited response to BioTechHedge's rhetorical "question":
OK, let's go for the obvious:
Cause 534 is a huge, most likely blockbuster, massively value enhancing product, VS Rida, which is now owned by Merck, and is a much more modest (but still very important) revenue source.
Rida pays for the rent and electricity and bunsen burners while Ariad moves 534 toward FDA approval.
Just a side-note: Irrespective of the timing of FDA approval, just the public announcement of successful completion of the trial will result in a rapid rise of the pps. Investors will enjoy the benefits of 534 sooner than the larger (non-trial) patient population.
2damoon1, I agree with your statement:
1. Milestone payments: There's a lot more than just the single payment for filing the NDA. Merck is conducting multiple trials, can initiate new ones anytime, and may reach milestones in any of them.
Note that expenses for 534 trials (whatever the amount) will not come due suddenly, like a lightning bolt from the sky. It's gradual, ongoing, and always subject to management control (ramp up if possible, throttle back if necessary). And, again, the expense, should be a fraction of the Rida trials (after all, everybody knows the 534 works!)
2. SUCCEED success:
OK, a bit of simple logic. Your claims are based on hypothetical events, on detailed assumptions about the structure and sequence and specific protocols of upcoming trials. In other words, on data that is NOT available to you. You're going (very far) out on a limb!
My reasoning takes fewer unknowable data for granted. Ariad is well funded today, based on its strategic deal with Merck. We are awaiting events in the next few months (positive results from SUCCEED, registration trials for 534, milestone payments from Merck), all of which will further improve Ariad's financial position. You speculate wildly (and as always pessimistically), and I"m just extrapolating from a few reasonable assumptions.
So, when I say "I don't know" I'm just being reasonably modest (after all SUCCEED could fail, highly unlikely, but could, maybe 5 percent chance), BUT you make assertions as if you have definitive information, information that requires insider info, and you have not stated that you attend management planning meetings.
BTW, who's "N"???
BTH, you're making my point here!
Simply, the efficacy of 534 has been proven! There are many patients who need this drug NOW(!!!), and depending on Ariad's strategy, they could target the most obvious patient subset (the T315 mutation), get quick approval for that, THEN go for other indications. With any FDA stamp of approval, the value of Ariad would skyrocket, and thus make it very easy to fund further trials, with minimal dilution. ERGO, no dilutive financing in the near future!