OK, a bit of simple logic. Your claims are based on hypothetical events, on detailed assumptions about the structure and sequence and specific protocols of upcoming trials. In other words, on data that is NOT available to you. You're going (very far) out on a limb!
My reasoning takes fewer unknowable data for granted. Ariad is well funded today, based on its strategic deal with Merck. We are awaiting events in the next few months (positive results from SUCCEED, registration trials for 534, milestone payments from Merck), all of which will further improve Ariad's financial position. You speculate wildly (and as always pessimistically), and I"m just extrapolating from a few reasonable assumptions.
So, when I say "I don't know" I'm just being reasonably modest (after all SUCCEED could fail, highly unlikely, but could, maybe 5 percent chance), BUT you make assertions as if you have definitive information, information that requires insider info, and you have not stated that you attend management planning meetings.
BTW, who's "N"???
