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Middle East Seems Not to Move Gold
First of all, hello everyone and I hope you have been doing well. Personally, I could be doing better but such is life.
I found it interesting this week that the high unrest in the Middle East failed to really keep gold and silver prices high. It seems that "good" economic news, and an reported overbuying by China, has kept the demand a bit down.
This said, I have not checked into Cartel activity which is normally at the bottom of such things.
Where do you see the short-term move going? Most say downward.
It's a very interesting video to say the least. When you add to it the legal actions being taken in the past week or two, I do believe there's going to be a break of some sort in the silver manipulation.
This said, I do not believe the end of silver manipulation is going to happen anytime soon in the US. The Cartel is making too much easy money, and governmental agencies are still turning their heads and pretending like they don't see what's going on.
We have a similar auction company here that also does half off on Sunday. If there is anything left, it goes quite quickly.
SP On Gold Rush?
SP,
If you call the right people, maybe you can be the next addition to Gold Rush. Hey, I think they might double their ratings!
Gold Breaking $1300 vs Silver
SP,
Yes, I was also noticing how silver has been languishing versus gold. I do not see any reason why silver would not be going up given the current financial picture. So, I agree with you that JP Morgan must not be done with their manipulation.
I am currently selling some of my gold off seeing how I really need the funds at this point in time. Yet, I do not plan on selling any silver at the present moment. If I were to sell silver, I would likely take the money from the sterling sales and convert them into coins.
What About Gold?
Still holding gold or platinum? Also, I would take some of that 10x rate profit and put it into something tangible.
Sometimes Gold After Flood Here
SP,
I have heard that some find gold in the area after a big flood, or high water situation, in the Western North Carolina area.
As I have stated before, I saw two guys on a local river one afternoon coming back to their cars with mining pans a year or so ago. The French Broad River is supposed to be extremely old, and it is a rare river which actually flows NORTH.
I am not sure if they found anything, but I think there is likely a chance they did.
It Will Take More Than Germany - But Maybe This is a Start
I think it is good that some parties are acknowledging gold manipulation in high places. It is also good that Germany is taking the actions it is taking.
This said, I am not sure this will stop the manipulation on the large scale. It has been yelled from the rooftops in the US, yet there does not seem to be any legal body willing to counter the parties involved. Also, I do not think London will be in any big hurry to depart from the train that they, and others, are riding on.
Interesting Piece
I like this article. Also, I like the continued action in silver and gold.
Platinum seems to be acting more as it should as well.
Dark? - Maybe But True For All Of Us
WER123,
Sooner or later we all end up on the dead side of this thing we call life. For now though, we need to focus on what we have and look for ways of getting what we need.
I agree a bubble has formed. You can only dress a pig up nicely
for a little while and make it cute before it senses the nearest mud hole and goes to town. :)
Post Midterm Elections
If left to the current Administration, I think such news will come after the elections no matter how they turn out. If the Democrats do well, they will still have key control no matter how the economy goes.
If the Reps do well, the Dems can then try to blame the Reps for the mess than is unfolding.
interesting Article On SeekingAlpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1927891?source=ipadportfolioapp_copy
You Have A Solid Track Record
SP,
You have a solid track record. Right now, I am in total agreement with you. If I were to be buying at all, it would be Morgans at this point.
I called my local coin shop last week and I could pick up earlier date Silver Eagles for $26 plus seven percent tax. I asked want they were asking for hero common 1921 Morgans and I recall her saying they started at $42.
Granted the store is a bit high compared to online, but I really liked that even there Morgans were going for a premium over older date Eagles.
Interesting Action In PMs
Anyone noticed a better than expected spot price for silver and gold? I was concerned that QE easing, the Holidays, and liquidation for tax purposes would drop the prices much lower than they have gone so far.
It may or may not hold, but it is better than I thought it would be.
Also, SP, I would hurry and buy those stocks before you miss out on even more possible profits. (Even hard to type that with a straight face).
End Of My Road For Now
SP,
I would like to mine the web, but my finances are probably at the worst they have been since my employment ended Dec. 11, 2011. I think a Temp Agency may be my best shot for a while.
I have a number of things to sell on the Bay and also on Etsee, but even with them sold they are only likely to bring enough to survive for a few months a best.
I hope 2014 is a better year than this last year or so has been. I really do not know how I could deal with another year like the last two.
Anyway, keep digging your claim and the web both. You have a lot going for you, and I think you will do well.
By the way, after the end-of-year selling spree, I think the prices may level out towards mid-January. Hopefully, they will rise from there.
Thus My 1879 Morgan Today
A pawn shop close to my house had 10% off their coins for Christmas. Now, they are a bit too high to begin with so 10% brought the price to about what I could get them for online.
I picked a decent 1879 Morgan for around $35 total. I know it was not a DEAL per se, but I like the coin and I now have another Morgan.
I Am Of The Same Mindset Given All Things Equal
SP,
Right now, I would agree that selling would make the most sense depending on whether you are a trader or long term investor.
Everything seems to be in favor of gold and silver going down. Tapering should boost the US dollar which tends to trade in the opposite direction of PMs. The Fed continuing to keep interest rates low will likely continue to add liquidity to the markets luring big money away from PMs and into other venues. Also, the likely budget hurdle being overcome by the US Government does not help PM prices either.
RISK OFF pretty much seems to describe the markets as a whole right now. Granted, a skirmish in the Middle East could change things. Inflation becoming official could change things, and a Contrarian rally could change things.
Yet, with the current mentality of the market and the willingness of the Cartel to drive PMs even further down to sustain the so called recovery, I see selling to be more likely than buying or holding PMs.
All this noted, the long term fundamentals for holding gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are all still as strong today as they have been for some time. I guess what many will do is hold a partial core position in case of an emergency and trade their remaining assets in the liquid market. If I had a lot of money, this is what I would likely be doing.
Less Stimulus - Higher Dollar - Less Risk Mentality
Okay, so here we go with the official announcement today. When all the talking heads started to say it wasn't likely to happen this early, I started to think it was more likely to happen than before.
Stimulus is slowed, the masses see a stronger dollar, risk mentality is off, and we get ready to see the shorts kill gold and silver.
At this point, I find it almost amusing that markets play off the media hype. Personally, most of my scrap gold is gone and I don't plan on letting go of my sterling pieces short of those which will likely bring a decent price such as my Navajo pieces and a few others I have.
So, how many here are now buyers? SLV might be interesting here pretty soon saw well as some physical. Personally, I hope to convert some of my silver into Morgans.
Comex Inventories Interesting and What This Means
I read this article on SeekingAlpha and felt it was worth posting here. Very educational and informative. Please note the charts are viewable via the actual attributed source.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1883961-weekly-comex-gold-inventories-action-starts-to-pick-up-at-the-comex-gold-warehouses
Weekly COMEX Gold Inventories: Action Starts To Pick Up At The COMEX Gold Warehouses
Last week we noted that it was relatively a slow week, though not much of a surprise since it was a holiday week in the United States, but December deliveries were approaching and we expected to see a lot more action as we got into December. This week that's what we saw as there was big additions to both COMEX registered and eligible gold - with the vast majority of eligible additions in the Scotia Mocatta warehouse - the rest of the warehouses were quite quiet.
Keeping track of COMEX inventories is something that is recommended for all serious investors who own physical gold and the gold ETF's (GLD, PHYS, and CEF) because any abnormal inventory declines may signify extraordinary events behind the scenes that would ultimately affect the gold price.
We will take a closer look at these numbers but let us first explain the COMEX a little more for investors who are unfamiliar with it.
Introduction to COMEX Warehousing
COMEX is an exchange that offers metal warehousing and storage options for its clients. The list of their silver warehouses can be found here and their gold warehouses can be found here. In the case of silver and gold, the metal is stored at these official warehouses on behalf of banks and their clients and can be used to settle futures contracts, transferred between clients, or withdrawn from the warehouse. This offers large holders of precious metals a convenient way to store their metal with minimal storage fees - very convenient indeed if you hold large amounts of gold or silver and you don't want to store them in your basement.
Silver and gold stored in these warehouses can fall into two categories: Eligible and Registered.
Eligible metals are those that conform to the exchange's requirements of size (1000 ounce bars for silver and 100 ounce bars for gold), purity, and refined by an exchange approved refiner. Eligible metals are stored at COMEX warehouses on behalf of banks or private parties, but are not available for delivery for a futures contract.
Registered metals are similar to eligible metals except that these metals are also available for delivery to settle a futures contract. COMEX issues a daily report on gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium stocks, which lists all the metal that is currently stored in COMEX warehouses and how much eligible and registered metal is present.
This information allows investors insight into how much metal is currently backing COMEX futures contracts, what large gold and silver owners are doing with their metals, and how many clients are requesting delivery of their metals. There is a lot more to glean from this information but for the purpose of this article we will focus on the gold drawdown.
This Week's Changes: Active Week in Both Registered and Eligible Gold
Let us now take a deeper look at the gold draw-downs being seen in the COMEX warehouses.
As investors can see, last week saw a tremendous increase in registered gold inventories as 108,420 ounces were added to registered gold stocks - a close to 20% increase in total registered gold stocks in one week! Additionally, we saw an increase in total COMEX eligible stocks as well - but that's been the pattern over the last few months.
Another interesting thing to note is that almost all the action was seen in Scotia Mocatta warehouses.
90% of the net additions to registered gold were in the Scotia Mocatta warehouse. Additionally, the only other warehouse to see significant activity for the week was the HSBC warehouse where a little over 63,000 ounces were added to eligible gold stocks. As investors can see, for the week most of the activity was concentrated in these two bank warehouses - maybe we can expect to see them delivering much of this gold later in the month.
COMEX Gold Open Interest and Registered Gold Owners per Ounce
Finally, let us take a look at possibly the most important number when it comes to COMEX gold inventories - the registered gold cover ratio. We've discussed this in-depth in a previous article so please refer to that article for details, but in a nutshell it is the amount of investors owning a claim to each registered gold ounce (i.e. owner per registered gold ounce).
As one would expect, this week's large increase in registered gold stocks and decline in COMEX open interest caused total owners-per-ounce to plunge to 54.8. Though to keep this into perspective, 54.8 is still a historically high number that was never seen previous to a few months ago - we're still well into parabolic territory for owners-per-ounce.
Conclusion for Gold Investors
As we've mentioned in the previous week's article, December should be a very busy month in terms of COMEX inventories, and this week we began to see a lot of gold come into the warehouses - specifically in the Scotia Mocatta warehouse. Since December is usually the busiest month for deliveries, this gold may be used to fill deliveries for outstanding contracts so it shouldn't come as a surprise to investors that activity has picked up - last December we saw multiple days where more than 100,000 ounces were removed from COMEX inventories.
At this point we see no reason to sell our gold position based on the COMEX gold inventories, and this week gold has been acting quite strange as it seemed to rise on positive economic reports - which has been the opposite of its recent short-term behavior. We remain gung-ho on gold and we believe it's a good time to continue to build positions in physical gold and the gold ETF's (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), PHYS, CEF). For investors looking for higher leverage to the gold price, they may want to consider miners such as Goldcorp (GG), Agnico-Eagle (AEM), Newmont (NEM), or even some of the explorers and silver miners such as First Majestic (AG) or Hecla Mining (HL).
One last thing to leave the gold bulls with that has little to do with COMEX inventories, but a lot to do with gold. The positioning in Commitment of Traders report this week shows something very interesting - Producer/Merchants (think bullion banks and gold producers) have a net-long position on gold for the first time since mid-2008, which were the depths of the gold plunge during the financial crisis. This is very interesting and though we can't cover it in this article (I'll try to put something out soon if next week it remains positive), it is something gold investors should look at further and a reason to be patient and bullish on gold.
IS AAA Metals Close To You Or Was It Via Mail
Xena,
Is the AAA Metals location physically close to you or did you mail the metals to them via courier? Also, do you use a business license?
I am not an official business so things may be a bid better for you.
Speaking of Smelting PMs
Just wondering if anyone here has used a smelting company or if maybe you have smelted using your own equipment.
I may be the only here interested in doing such, but I thought it would be worth asking.
Looking for Frantic Sellers
Just a note that now can be an interesting time to watch online places like the Bay for frantic sellers. A decreasing spot value, a down economy, and the need for Holiday money can sometimes produce some good buys if you know how to refine your searches.
Just a thought.
Also, HAPPY THANKSGIVING everyone. I hope you have a good Holiday.
So When Are You A Buyer
I think some will be buyers at $1000 if gold does go that low. If silver drops at the same gold to silver ratio we have now, I think I would be looking at some bargain hunting if I ever get a job or extra money.
By the way, I recently posted my personal thoughts on why I thought the prices of gold and silver would continue to decrease for a while. I did not mean to insinuate that I feel they will always go down. Even I know that sooner or later cheap money has it's price and that price is inflation. Thus, one day I do see gold and silver going back up. I just do not think it will be in the near future seeing that other investment areas offer quicker and higher immediate profit that PMs.
So, I am wondering at what point you might be a buyer again. I know calling a bottom is near impossible, but what are your thoughts?
No But I Do Have A Detector Project
SP,
No, I did not get out and do what I was wanting to do in the gold prospecting arena. Up through July, job searching took a bit of time and family related matters took up the rest. I guess most of my gold hunting was done at Goodwills and the like.
This said, our church is on the verge of being sold and the church has been there since the 1930s if I am correct. I think our last day to hold services is Dec 8th with the final sale date not too long after that. So, I am hoping to take out my White's and see if I can do a sweep of the key areas before the property is sold.
I started going there as a child in the 70s, so I have a decent idea of the key areas to be scanned. BTW, it will be one of my first real sweeps with the Whites. Wish me luck.
A Note on My Navajo Piece
I did not mean to imply that the piece I left a link to was extremely old Navajo. In fact, the Navajo artisans are the Tellers. To my knowledge, they are still very much alive and active.
The Tellers are Navajo, and I understand they are Christian missionaries to their people. The "De Chelly" mark refers to Canyon De Chelly which I understand is part of the Navajo nation. Also, I understand the mark is well attributed to the Tellers.
Here is a reference showing the mark and it's attribution:
http://www.art-amerindien.com/signature_bijoux_amerindiens.htm#d
It is clearly sterling and not coin like earlier pieces would be. This said, it is Navajo.
I Have Mixed Thoughts But Here They Are
SP,
I think first and foremost, we can agree that silver and gold have not really moved on true fundamentals. They have moved more on sentiment than anything else. Right now, the sentiment seems to be that gold and silver are headed lower.
When I look at things, I see more opportunities for profit in other avenues at the present moment. I see stocks as a bigger draw than precious metals and a perceived lessened sense of risk in the market. Until something comes along to send some risk into the market, I think a lot of money once in gold and silver will be placed elsewhere where quicker and higher profits can be made.
This brings me to the question I have been asking myself for some time. What catalyst would be needed to bring the price of PMs back up and help stop the decline?
Would another government standoff make a difference? Personally, I do not think it would do much at all. Would a war of some sort make a difference? Yes, I think a war on serious escalation in the Middle East could send PM prices higher. This said, I think the effect would only be temporary at best.
So, could inflation send the prices a bit higher. Yes, I think inflation might send the prices higher. This said, even if it did exist, I do not think the current administration would ever allow it to be official. Now, add to this the likelihood that Cartel activity is geared to lower the price of PMs, and I think the overall consensus is that prices are likely headed lower.
Of course there are always things like the strong demand in China and the historic need for the Cartel to allow the prices to rise in order to make their easy millions. Yet, it seems that even these are now a bit in question.
Personally, I agree that gold and silver are both oversold at this point. There may be a correction upward, but current conditions and the lack of a catalyst leads me to believe they are likely headed lower.
Here Is One Navajo Piece
WER,
I am just starting to list on Etsy. I have this piece current listed but would, or course, give you a better price.
https://www.etsy.com/listing/169232442/navajo-everett-and-mary-teller-sterling
Let's Just Say I Am Listing All Gold
SP,
Let me just say I am about to list all gold with the Christmas season coming along with some of my Navajo sterling pieces and the like. On my sterling, I am not sure if I should sell it now at what could be far too low a spot price or wait.
Personally, I would like to see gold hold $1200+ for about another month and silver to get back above $20. Could it go sub-teens? Yes, it is possible if the numbers continue to be fudged and the Fed keeps blowing free air into the flame.
I have an art piece currently listed for $1500 OBO on eBay. If it sells, I have a few bills to pay and a bit to put back. This said, I may be contacting you about some Morgans. I think I still have you saved as a preferred seller on my account from when I purchased the French coins some time ago.
I Agree About Rebalancing
I think rebalancing is wise at this point. For me though, this is not an issue seeing how I have almost nothing to rebalance. I had to tap a small bit of my IRA just a few weeks ago to pay house taxes and the like.
If I had money in paper silver or gold, I think I would have been out by now. If I were trying to preserve wealth, I would have placed more funds into rare coins and other vehicles which tend to hold their ground despite large economic swings up or down.
If for some reason the Fed does not taper QE in December, and PM rise at all, I will likely clear out what little gold I have left. As for my sterling, I have a lot and I was blessed to obtain it much, much lower than spot (sometimes pennies on the dollar).
Is It Really All Over?
Sorry, but I now see sub-20 for silver and I never thought it would get this low with all the "fundamentals" going against such a move. So, I must now really ask if the heyday is now completely over.
By the way, I know there is a lot of talk about cutting back on QE. The scary thing to me is that I think the Fed MUST follow through now that they have kicked the can so far down the road. Also, as I have stated before, I just do not trust the government numbers anymore.
There seems to be a story brewing that the government fudged the employment numbers right at the time of the last election. Also, I just do not trust the current reports coming out. I do not think they are accurate, and I do not think those in charge are trustworthy.
Knowing it is very much in their best interest to kill precious metals, I now question if gold and silver have much of a chance in the near future - even to the end of this administration.
So, is the party over? I am really starting to think it is and really thinking that holding my sterling has been a mistake. I should have sold as much as possible and bought some Morgans, paid some bills, and maybe bought some medical insurance.
Coin Collectors vs Silver Bug
If you are primarily wanting coins in a low price range which should hold their value, I would be looking for Morgans in good condition in the $25 to $30 range if I could find them. Your most likely candidate is the 1921 Morgan, but there are others.
If you are looking for Morgans that may appreciate in value, do your research and buy "graded" coins. Once graded, they are not easily found much below their established values.
I am mobile right now but will try to leave a more detailed response this weekend.
BTW, SP is an excellent resource on Morgans as is WER.
Morgans Before Eagles
I totally agree I would be buying Morgans before Silver Eagles or other similar bullion (Canadian Maple Leafs, etc.)
There are two things I do not like about Silver Eagles - the premium to buy and their movement with spot price. As you may know, buying Silver Eagles requires a decent premium above their spot price. Also, their value tends to follow the spot price very closely.
I agree with WER 100% that Morgans are a better choice. They have historically held their values better and their numismatic nature likely means they will hold their value better in the future than bullion coins.
I May Buy Some Morgans as Well
I picked up a nice print a few months ago for $10.70. It turns out it is a Charles Vickery limited edition, numbered, and signed print. One just sold on eBay for $1200 minus the fees and shipping ( around $1025 clear).
If I can get this, I may pick a few Morgans up.
TooFuzzy, I agree with you that the hype on prices. I appreciate your guidance and may need to ask some advise shortly.
So - To Buy Or Wait
Well, what I am thinking is likely lower prices for a little while. If gold breaks below $1250 and silver below $21, I do not see any key drivers to make it rebound.
Long term, of course, the logic is to hold physical and I would like to be able to do so. Still unemployed and things aren't looking promising.
At what point would you be buying?
Just Question The Jobs Report Numbers - Why Not?
I look at the Jobs Report for today and see that a much higher number of jobs were reportedly created than were expected. Then, I see that there needs to be something to help justify possible QE easing this year.
After Benghazi, the abuse of the IRS, and the lies around Obamacare I just cannot really trust the numbers at this point. I question if they are accurate and I question if they are as they are for a political purpose.
Either way, I am looking more long term now.
Could you imagine finding all of that treasure in a safe sold to you as scrap?
Man, I would have been on Cloud 9.
Also, why did they need to call the police? It was a safe that was sold as scrap. Is there some law that says you have to report a certain amount of found money? Hmmm, just saying.
China Must Have It All
I doubt that India has any gold seeing how China has been grabbing it up like gravy.
Tons of Sterling - Just Not For Me
I stopped at a small, packaging store this past week and found out the owner was a stacker or sorts. He was a younger person, but he was very much aware of PMs.
I didn't say too much except that I collect a bit. He said silver was supposed to almost triple by the end of the year from what he was hearing. He also asked me if I wanted to buy any sterling at spot. He said he had tons of it.
I thanked him but chose to decline. Buying sterling at spot just isn't that great an idea to me.
Yet, he also has quite a few junk silver coins from dimes to halves. These I may buy if I can get the price a little below spot. I would like to think I might get a good numismatic coin, but it was very clear to me he knew his coins as well. He had quite a collection of gold coins he showed me pictures of.
I think what he is wanting to do is sell as much sterling at spot as possible and then reinvest that money into nice coins. Good plan of action to say the least. This said, I may see if he will go a bit below spot. From my understanding, he obtained it at a very good price
I Think It Is Talking Fed Head
I was thinking it was possibly profit taking as well until I read that some Fed head is now saying they could taper as early as October.
Honestly, this is just pure stupidity. PMs gained too much and now they are pushing the same crap they were pushing before. I think it kills the Fed, and Cartel, when PMs make any gain.
Add To This Possible War
If you add an increasing likelihood of some form of war with Syria, and you have a good setup for even higher PMs. As I stated earlier, if I had loose powder I would have likely bought some last week.