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I think the "Why" is pretty simple. The stock took a big fall from the high and he wanted to express to all the shareholders that everything is ok.... Don't worry about the price action. That should have been a very obvious sign to all about where he believes this stock is going. However some are still having a hard time accepting.
Rory is very sympathetic to his shareholders.
What has me more excited than the crm angle is the upcoming notifiTV. The ability to embed clickable items into any video is huge. Imagine amazon adopting this and adding it to all streaming video so that people are two clicks away from purchasing the item. Imagine the advertisement revenue that would come to video producers like amazon's original content only to then be able to also sell the product directly from the video. This creates an entirely new market. Goodness....I think Amazon would be the first to buy this company. Good technology doesn't sit around long without being acquired. This company will get bought.
No that wasn't asked. Lind only spoke of top line results in late 2016. She stated several times that the timetable has been impacted from this screening hold. So to me if she believes she has enough enrolled then why keep saying that? She really didn't offer up much at this meeting, to the point that I have almost nothing to add. It was very in accordance with public statements already made.
Concerning enrollment she said this, " we stated we are over 300 and that's was months ago".
Concerning Woodford. "on the same page"
Concerning HE "its taken a long time and going to continue to take a long time"
She was holding her cards extremely close. Not offering up much at all.
I don't believe that the accelerated approval was discussed within the context of an interm analysis, and the possibility of a halt. She spoke as though the trial is going to the end, which she always has done. There was little if any mention of the IA. On my list of questions but just didn't get the chance.
My thought in reading that part was that he was responding to his investor inquiries. Surely they are following the companies he's investing their money in and has to explain all the negativity surrounding this company.
Days to cover is calculated by dividing the number of shares short by the avg volume. It just means that with the current volume it would lake 43 days to cover the short position. The volume has been particularly low which accounts for the large increase from last period.
If for futility then they would also stop treating patients. If they had reached enrollment then it would not be temporary. I am at a loss but it seems to be for a reason we have not uncovered yet.
If the vaccine works, what your saying isn't realistic. Try not to lose sight of Linda's investment in NWBO. Its huge, she has much to gain. So all you really have to do is believe that she wants a successful vaccine and company and with that your worries vanish.
Let me see if I can help. If vaccine is successful we win, if not we lose. Nothing about what your saying changes that. Of course Linda wants the company to be successful. The end.
Sure, but the article certainly hinted to a late stage phaseIII trial for cancer immunotherapy. And seeming as that's the most likely to see approval first, I think it makes sense to assume L. Also, the company, while blinded still has a far better idea of whats going on in the trial than we do and right now, they are preparing for launch.
My take on Pyrr. I really hate even discussing him because he is so incredibly annoying but anyway, I believe he is working for some entity to push the options. When he was incredibly bullish and doing all the modeling he would always accompany his positive view with a trading strategy. Last year it was to buy the calls, yet the stock went nowhere. Now he is incredibly bearish and again offers a trading strategy to buy the puts, just as the stock is moving higher. You see, he is a really good salesman, always pushing the options that make the least sense and the ones that will expire worthless. For everyone reading his posts, THEY HAVE NO VALUE, other than causing the true believers to dig deeper to disprove him. But not sure if that helps more people than it hurts. Honestly, it would be a much better and sincere board without him.
Ya i'm not so sure about that. Did you see it when it went through? I saw it the same day but not when it went through and I recall there being a pretty large spread and thought it was somewhere in the middle. But I can't be certain. I see that its pretty much at the ask now. But there also may have been quite a bit of flexibility from the buyers giving the short time duration and the seemingly low probability of it going higher.
Whether you "sell to open" a position or you "buy to open" a position, the open interest is increased. If the trader "sold to open" 1000 contracts of the july 15 strike the open interest will increase by 1000. This is not an indicator of which side of the trade he is on. The best way to tell typically is to see the price at which the order went through. Whether it was closer to the bid or ask.
Yes Eagle, That's exactly what I was saying. Its more likely that the open interest and 1000 contract lot was initiated by a seller of the puts. Woodford knows he can maintain a certain pps so even if the stock stays right here he makes money with the time value coming out of the premium. If it heads towards 15 or above, obviously he makes the 720k plus what he gets on the call side. This is the more likely scenario imo. Buying both doesn't make much sense, not at that strike.
Ya sorry, just read that. I Had some catching up to do. I am very interested in this play. Options have foreshadowed quite well with this stock. How do we know that this trader didnt sell the puts and buy the calls? That has been much of the strategy thus far. Otherwise it doesn't make much sense. With buying both, If the stock rises to 15 by expiration he losses it all. Why not do the same trade at the 10 dollar strike for far less money? This is a very interesting trade and I will need to think more about it.
That didn't happen today. It was either early this week or last. I have been seeing that volume sitting there for several days. I think it won't change, at least on yahoo, until another order goes through.
Everyone should understand that NLNK is a different story. Most of the analyst covering the stock thought that the 2nd interim would be stopped for efficacy. Management also was promoting the possibility. The stock did the same think at the first interim look. Their trial was designed to detect a 20 percent improvement at the end which is still possible but now that they missed a stop at this interim, it really calls into question some of their original assumptions about control survival. Also, there was plenty of speculation priced into the stock, completely contrary to what is going on here. Fortunately for Newlink they have a checkpoint inhibitor program that will be valued more than hyperacute. And hopefully for us we will be able to say the same about Direct.
Thanks, it's funny because for me, it really is that simple. Taking out all the scientific reasoning to own this stock that's what were left with. Thanks for all your scientific input here and in the comments section on SA. Enjoyed it!
Wishful but very possible. There are so many possibilities for news. I think Linda and Woodford have teamed up to remove the short interest in this stock. Once shorts see a steady rise in price and price stability they will start to cover and Linda will initiate some well timed pr's to help out. Once the shorts start to cover they will do all the work themselves as far as raising the share price. They really are trapped. I don't think they had any plans to sit with 9mil short shares heading into results of the phase III. Either Woodford has seen enough Direct data to derisk this investment or he knows that he can have a successful investment simply by making the shorts cover. Probably both. Imagine investing 100 mill into a company and having it disappear in 12 months if the the phase III data were to come out negative? There is no way that's going to happen. He has seen what he needs to with Direct to derisk his investment. Now its just a matter of waiting for the news to hit.
Hmmm looks like we will be hearing from Linda on Thursday at 12:15.
Pleasant little surprise.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyse-nasdaq-otc-markets-companies-221500577.html
True, we must remember the one PC case we are familiar with. Alan Butler got another chance because of this treatment. How many of those responses do you have to show to be considered successful? So even if there were no PR's or CR's it has application. What else is shrinking inoperable tumors to the point where they can be surgically removed?
Direct will take front stage as Car-t struggles to produce against solid tumors. We were initially sold with them today but rebounded once people realized that's good news for NWBO. CI's and direct will team up to bring substantial tumor shrinkage.\
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13118315/1/juno-therapeutics-juno-stock-falls-today-on-mediocre-solid-tumor-therapy-data.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Excellent post and I couldn't agree more. I will add, Woodford has de-risked the stock considerably and has applied enormous pressure on the short position. The game between AF and the toxic financiers is over and they will have to find a way to cover. The stock, in most of our opinions, has been severely under-valued but it takes a Woodford to wake people up. The options have been grossly mispriced as well and I believe they will also start to reflect the potential upside even without a major move in the stock. I'll admit I don't have a real appreciation for where the stock should be, I just know it should be higher. 16.75-22 sounds good to me as a new trading range.
This isn't exactly how it played out. The position was being established since early Jan. On Feb 24th the open interest was already at 22k+ That day we had 23k in volume and the open interest was only up slightly, lets say about 24k. Meaning that slightly more positions were open than closed. I believe the position was being established by a series of buys and sells of the same call. The Buyer initially sold the calls to push the price down on several different days then on the 24th bought them and went long. This has been a very complex trade and hard to understand.
Additionally the short interest went up during this period. Why continue to add to your short position if your worried enough to put in a substantial hedge.
Ok Mav, I would agree that it's a more likely scenario now that the call position is to cover short positions. We seen the open interest drop from 28k to aprox 23k early last week from the calls being exercised, presumably to "buy to cover" short shares. I am still not sure what that means for the stock price and how that technically takes place. Does exercising those contracts bring additional buying to the stock? Nonetheless, it was only 2.7 mill shares for a 9 million share short position. Hardly enough coverage. My other thought was that Woodford was the buyer and was going to use those calls and exercise them to purchase more stock for his new fund, which opens right around expiration of the calls. That amount, approx 2 mill shares, is around the amount I would expect him to add to his new fund.
I can say for me, while I was pretty confident in this investment, his injection cemented my position.
On another note and not aimed at you RK, I would really suggest people stay away from the puts. The premiums on them are way out of wack with the current risk and relative to the call premiums. For example, look at the difference at any of the 8 dollar strike between calls and puts. I expect they will start adjusting lower as the lower risk becomes more obvious and the calls should become more expensive. Save the puts for the binary event as others have suggested.
Haha, no doubt. But he carries a little more weight so for any that where on the fence or just joining this journey, look to Woodford.
Woodford Likely sold the Puts knowing that he will keep the stock above 6. Thereby lowering his buy-in costs. It's still considered a hedge. No worries about it going back below 6. No near term risks that I can see, only catalyst for a higher stock price. I appreciate everyone diving into the science of this company but if one wants to keep it simple, follow the money. Follow Woodford.
So now we have options OI sitting at 28K. This past Friday a new position was opened. Even at this late hour we still have shorts adding to their hedge? I don't think so. Either someone is selling the calls or still planning for a big run in April. This is the most OI I have ever seen with this stock.
At the same time, you have have brokers asking to borrow shares, prominent message board posters pushing the puts and siding with AF, and Cramer stirring up the MD Anderson situation. This, as we approach another round of financing, potential news from conferences, an investment from a new biotech fund from Woodford, a potential collaboration with a CI, HE numbers,and an interim analysis. You really couldn't write a more interesting story. Any one of which could play out within the next four weeks.
Personally, I will bet on Woodford and one of the potential catalysts to push us higher.
Jan 7th was the first real volume for this 25k open interest. 5K traded at about .45 cents. The July 6th position was also being established around this time. There is always a market for options, and many times people are on the wrong side. It happens with stocks all the time. This position could be a hedge but i'm leaning more towards the other option. On the supply side the volume is probably spread among many.
Mav, It's just my opinion that this is not a hedge. It certainly could be just not what I believe. I could be wrong. Why now, for April expiration? The timing of it doesn't make sense to me. The position was being established well before we knew of any catalysts. What about this month worries the short seller?
Linda set the expectation low for a halt for efficacy. She wants to finish the trial (so she says). So there is no anticipation for an early stop thus no market reaction. Since the more likely result is a continue, minimal reaction in stock price is expected. However, a halt for efficacy would be north of 45 in my opinion.
I don't believe it's a hedge. The position was being established well before we knew of any direct data that was going to potentially be released. The buyer established the position through a combination of selling the calls to drive the price down then buying the calls it seemed. Only noticeable if watching the options price during the trades. Another 4.5k went through on Friday. Will see on Monday what the OI went to. However, whether it's a hedge or a long strategy the buyer is expecting a nice rise in the price. Even for a hedge the buyer does not plan to waste a million dollars. Additionally the July 6 dollar puts were likely sold to fund the trade, so it is possible that this is a fairly risk free trade for a hedge or otherwise. Only a major institution like Woodford can assure the stock price is above 6 by July. It's obvious to me that its not a covered call being sold as well, as there was no selling while the premium at its highest while the stock was over 8. So the only question that remains is what's the catalyst that pushes us higher over the next 3 or 4 weeks? We have the impeding dilution but my guess is that will not take place until something significant happens. Any guesses what that could be? First interim? Direct data? Phase II ucla adjuvant data? 55 patient arm data? CI collaboration? HE? Something we haven't considered? Or simply to ensure a less dilutive financing for the current holders. Anyway, those are my thoughts.
This is the trial your referring to yes?
https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01204684
It looks like estimated primary completion date is September 2015.
Flip, that phase II you mention...any insight into when the data could possibly come out? Perhaps at one of the three upcoming conferences? I was trying to figure out what the catalyst was going to be to shoot this higher in the next few weeks and that could be it.
Interestingly your DD is always accompanied by a trading strategy. Last year you were promoting buying the calls because the price was about to explode higher, yet the price went no where. Now you advertise the puts presumably right before it takes off? Certainly starting to seem a bit suspect.
Retail? No, a retail investor did not spend over a million dollars on April 7 dollar calls. Undoubtedly institutional buying. The only other theory that I don't accept is that its a hedge for the shorts.
My theory is this, Woodford is the buyer of the 25k april 7 calls. He plans to push the price up going into the next financing deal. He will have to pay more for the shares but it will be less dilutive to his current holdings and he will offset the higher cost with money made on the call side. Additionally he is selling the July puts to reduce his costs further. I'm not exactly sure what the catalyst will be for the increase in share price or if there will be an obvious one but I believe the deal will be done above 10. There are several potential near term catalysts but the main reason for the rise will be to do the next round of financing. If the share price never gets above 8 or 9 in the next few weeks then i'm wrong.
If you were financing the company to the tune of 25 million+ you would also be privy to a few additional details.