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Unbelievable. I just can't see a reason why the FDIC should get one cent of the NOL's. I like how the revised POR decreased the FDIC's amount. And to think that working for the FDIC after school would be my top choice...
Did the FDIC do a loss-sharing agreement w/JPM when they sold WaMu to them? If so, then I can understand wanting some of the NOL's.
How corrupt does that sound? Take billions from the shareholders to pay off a government entity so that the management is protected from criminal suits...
If that's the case, this thing will never settle b/c of future law suits trying to block a corrupt agreement.
It could go to a nickel in seconds but it will recover some on a short covering so just in case I have some cash on hand to play the bounce. It went from $90/share to $6/share in minutes then quickly hit 70 after settling in the 50's.
That's b/c you have common sense. Unfortunately, it's not as dependable in the court of law as we would presume.
Question: If the judge did accept the POR, is it possible for Susman to appeal? I haven't heard anyone mention an appeal but I don't know if it's possible in the BK courts.
Exactly. I think this could return to 100 if the POR is rejected but probably not on the same day. I'm just going to prepare for the worse and make some money off of the short covering bounce if there is capitulation on the downside. Hopefully, I figure what's another 2 grand to lose if I'm already in this thing 20 g's.
Also, be ready to buy more and play the bounce. Last time it went from 6 to 70 before settling around the 30-40 level. This could be an excellent opportunity to make up for any losses that we've incurred over the last couple months.
Edit: It settled at 58 that day then slowly decreased. I'm going to have a couple grand ready no matter what.
If she gives us a reason to sell, this thing is going to 5 cents ASAP and it wouldn't be worth it to sell. Probably better off keeping them as proof for a class action against Rosen. Although, I don't think that will be very successful either.
Why do you think Rosen cares what the share prices are at? I haven't made up my mind if I think he takes into account the ramifications to common and preferred shareholders or not before he submits documents to the court.
I agree w/you 100%. Sorry, I didn't mean to reply to your question. Even the article mentioned that WaMu is still in discussions w/the FDIC. Obviously there's nothing to discuss if there was a global agreement so this is just smoke that Rosen's trying to pass off as billable hours.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2011889403_wamu18.html
A WaMu spokesman said that there's still on going discussions. I'm not sure why WaMu decided to give more NOL's to JPM, but on the other hand the FDIC gave up more.
Most important thing to realize for longs--From PDF pg251, pg 138 of the disclosure statement:
4. Projections and Other Forward-Looking
Statements Are Not Assured, and Actual Results May Vary
Certain of the information contained in this Disclosure Statement is, by nature, forward
looking, and contains estimates and assumptions which might ultimately prove to be incorrect, and
contains projections which may be materially different from actual future experiences. There are
uncertainties associated with any projections and estimates, and they should not be considered assurances
or guarantees of the amount of funds or the amount of Claims in the various Classes that might be
allowed.
"contains estimates and assumptions which might ultimately prove to be incorrect..."
Booyah!
Where does the 1% rtn come from?
Can you post the amended POR or at least copy and paste where it specifically says that?
Thanks
What you said is why this stock has so much potential. We're all still super mad/worn out right now, yet the price is still above the high's of 2009 (pre-mid December pps explosion) because we won't sell. Our stubbornness has created an artificial floor forcing the shorts to slowly cover. If we ever get interest in this again in the 15,000-20,000 volume range this could seriously take off to the 80's again that we held more or less for 2 months.
Problem-most of the long time holders don't want to commit new money so it's gonna take speculators to create interest. I don't see hedge funds getting involved again until everything's 100% clear and there's a good arbitrage opportunity.
This is all my opinion.
Well, sounds like as more shorts cover, then this can begin to slowly melt up-even on low volume. Then, hopefully, speculators will begin to pile in b/c of price movements and not necessarily volume--thereby increasing volume and creating that parabolic ascension that our spouses have been praying for. LOL.
Thanks. Funny how it's been correlated to price up until the last couple weeks.
Do you think that's because the shorts are slowly covering as to not increase the ask?
This reminds of the time period that we had to wait up until this thing popped to 20 and held, back in late April of '09. If you look at the trends since we got in, it has been a very slow process w/the exception of the trading the took place from Dec until March (especially in Dec).
Volume is what really moved this thing and right now there is none. I saw the Accum/Dist charts that people posted. I would love to see those on an 18mo basis to see if there's any correlation b/t an increase in the accumulation, volume, and those pops we've seen in the pps. Interesting to note that the last big weeks of volume we had before the sell off was about a month (in late March 2009) before the P's went from 7 to 27 in April 2009.
I can't believe this is still trading under $40/share-especially after the FDIC's filing. I think volume is too low to get more speculators back into this. If volume picked up to the 15,000-20,000 share range, then I think it would be enough to uncoil the spring, otherwise the 500lb woman will continue to weigh this down.
Are common holders waiting for the U's to go back up into the .20-.25 range to move into preferreds?
I would think there would have been more of an exodus from U's into pref's over the last couple of weeks that would have driven up the volume.
Thoughts?
A couple questions that I would appreciate it if someone or several people responded to that my buddies and I are trying to figure out:
1. Rosen works for the debtors whom just filed a motion to reject the POR? If true-shouldn't this ruin Rosen's reputation if not career?
2. The 4B in Caymans would be property of the debtors--hence the price of WaMu debt trading over par value?
3. Are the Cayman TPS's a deposit that JPM assumed that wouldn't need cash from JPM or the NOL's to be made whole? (Unlike what we're counting on as P's and K's holders)?
4. Finally, does this objection bring to light new facts--such as WaMu management's possible fraudulent conveyance of the TPS w/o investors' knowledge--that may end up expanding this case-pushing the time horizon out much longer than had been anticipated in the past? (assuming JPM is too stubborn to settle)
My intuition tells me the recent filing is potentially a game changer for all preferred asset classes but I'm not 100% sure how w/o further speculation based on unverified presumptions. Thanks for your time.
What page/paragraph are you looking at that alludes to what you've concluded? Thanks
Him and hundreds of others completely screwed up. I can completely relate to him though and so can many others on this board because I got too greedy when the P's were at 100/share.
WaMu selling sub primes was the "high" that we experienced every day when the P's blew up from 20-100 in just a couple days that Jerle has been referring to.
I remember one guy posting that he was up several hundred thousand dollars on the day the P's hit 80.
Greed is what drives capitalism but it also can be the other side of the double-edged sword that we didn't see coming. Live and learn.
I also consider any other bank that needs the FDIC to step and stop the hemorrhaging to have failed whether the FDIC enters into a loss sharing agreement with the acquirer or not.
I consider an institution as big as WaMu to have failed if it didn't have the proper risk management established for the prevention of the "destruction" that took place. IMO
In other words, why did WaMu not have the proper mechanisms in place to prevent market forces?
Was WaMu required to keep the loans on their balance sheet after making the required risky loans?
Good point. Thanks.
So it's better to have an opinion that commons will get $24/share b/c of RICO charges? LOL
An asset on a bank's balance sheet is a loan. I'm not sure how an office branch can be confused for a loan.
What you said proved my point-they were irresponsible but were sold too cheap. Customers chose to take money out of their accounts out of fear and WaMu was hemorrhaging w/o first-aid available. The EMT's applying the first-aid was the FDIC and the bandages were JPM. Problem is the bandages were too small and investors should have received a higher payout.
JPM has dozens of tax attorneys working for them. Don't you think Dimon would have consulted w/them before a major acquisition? Why do you think the POR gives some of the NOL's to JPM?
Answer: JPM purchased w/the expectations that they would get some if not all of the NOL's making up for the small amount that they paid. So for "free" they got exposure to the West Coast and picked up billions in deposits.
Acquisitions are valued based on future cash flows and current/future tax consequences based on portfolio write downs.
JPM took a huge risk assuming WaMu b/c WaMu's assets should have never existed-like a Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme.
In my opinion, JPM was forced to pay as much as they did for WaMu to satisfy the consideration element of the statute of frauds. But I'm probably the only one who thinks this so take it for what it is.
Part of me doesn't even want to respond to such a preposterous hypothetical but I will b/c I'm bored and in a good mood watching CNBC.
If I did know that w/100% certainty then so would everyone else, and the commons would probably be trading at 11.90 and the P's and K's would be at over their face value with the expectations of back dividends.
Just so you and everyone else know, the commons won't get $12 or $24 because federal racketeering charges will never be brought because they will never be proved; if a RICO charge was brought by some desperate attorney that's been out of work for the last year or two, the court would probably grant FRCP Rule 11 sanctions to the plaintiffs council for unfounded litigation before dismissing the case on the defendants motion for summary judgment.
WaMu screwed up. We all know it but most are in denial. I invested in WaMu not because I think they would have survived (unless they were bailed out), but because they were sold too cheap. They failed. Lets accept it and invest prudently and not post misleading messages to the detriment of hundreds of others that read these posts for investment knowledge.
Are you claiming that you know with 100% certainty that commons will get $12/share?
I think anything less than an 80/20 ratio of money invested long term into preferreds to commons is extremely irresponsible and reckless. But I'm 100% prefs b/c I'm young and my law school tuition will start knocking in 2 years.
A generous haircut by any standard would be 10%. That would amount to 350MM to the commons or 19.5 cents/share. A more reasonable sacrifice would be 5% or 10 cents/share for the u's.
People thinking the preferreds are going to take a haircut for the commons to get a couple bucks in case there's not enough for both classes are in denial.
For the K's and P's to get paid in full they need to see 3.5B. In the misleading scenario that has been fictitiously created through thousands of false and wishful thinking posters on the common board, the P's and K's would have to take a 1.8B hit to give the commons $1/share.
In other words, K's would go from 25 to 12 and P's would go from 1000 to 485.
Does anyone think that will happen?
This site says it with more clarity. http://www.allbusiness.com/business-planning/business-structures-corporations-stock/3779142-1.html
Preferred Stock
Preferred stock doesn't offer the same potential for profit as common stock, but it's a more stable investment vehicle because it guarantees a regular dividend that isn't directly tied to the market like the price of common stock. This type of stock guarantees dividends, which common stock does not. The price of preferred stock is tied to interest rate levels, and tends to go down if interest rates go up and to increase if interest rates fall.
The other advantage of preferred stock is that preferred stockholders get priority when it comes to the payment of dividends. In the event of a company's liquidation, preferred stockholders get paid before those who own common stock. In addition, if a company goes bankrupt, preferred stockholders enjoy priority distribution of the company's assets, while holders of common stock don't receive corporate assets unless all preferred stockholders have been compensated (bond investors take priority over both common and preferred stockholders).
Rockie
It's all over the internet if you google it. This is off of wikipedia.
Features of Preferred Stock:
Preferred stock is a special class of shares that may have any combination of features not possessed by common stock.
The following features are usually associated with preferred stock[4]
* Preference to dividends.
* Preference to assets in the event of liquidation.
* Convertible into common stock.
* Callable at the option of the corporation.
* Nonvoting.
In general, preferreds have preference to dividends payments. A preference does not assure the payment of dividends, but the company must pay the stated dividend rate prior to paying any dividends on common stock.[5]
Preferred stock can either be cumulative or noncumulative. A cumulative preferred stock requires that if a company fails to pay any dividend or any amount below the stated rate, it must make up for it at a later time. Dividends accumulate with each passed dividend period, which can be quarterly, semi-annually, or annually. When a dividend is not paid in time it is said that the dividend has "passed" and all passed dividends on a cumulative stock is a dividend in arrears. A stock that doesn't have this feature is known as a noncumulative or straight[6] preferred stock and any dividends passed are lost forever if not declared.[7]
Other features or rights
* Preferred stock may or may not have a fixed liquidation value, or par value, associated with it. This represents the amount of capital that was contributed to the corporation when the shares were first issued.[8]
* Preferred stock has a claim on liquidation proceeds of a stock corporation, equivalent to its par or liquidation value unless otherwise negotiated. This claim is senior to that of common stock, which has only a residual claim.
* Almost all preferred shares have a negotiated fixed dividend amount. The dividend is usually specified as a percentage of the par value or as a fixed amount. For example Pacific Gas & Electric 6% Series A preferred. Sometimes, dividends on preferred shares may be negotiated as floating i.e. may change according to a benchmark interest rate index such as LIBOR.
* Some preferred shares have special voting rights to approve certain extraordinary events (such as the issuance of new shares or the approval of the acquisition of the company) or to elect directors, but most preferred shares provide no voting rights associated with them. Some preferred shares only gain voting rights when the preferred dividends are in arrears for a substantial time.
The above list, although including several customary rights, is far from comprehensive. Preferred shares, like other legal arrangements, may specify nearly any right conceivable. Preferred shares in the U.S. normally carry a call provision,[9] enabling the issuing corporation to repurchase the share at its (usually limited) discretion.
Are you talking about commons or preferreds?
Is this the hearing that the examiner will hopefully release their evaluation numbers? If not when will that be and what is the big news that is expected to come from this hearing?
It's getting more difficult to keep track of all the lawsuits/events when the stock isn't nearly as exciting to follow.
Steve
DR
Do you care if the classes get canceled after a pay out or do you want to let your money ride on WaMu's new business?
Look at the performance of the WaMu securities from Jan 2, 2009 until today. Wahuq blows them all out of the water @ 1500%. Oddly, the P's have out gained the K's 1066% to 800%.
I guess I'll just finish it...the commons @ 596%.