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So Have the Scam Artists Gone Into Hiding? I swear - there's a special, low-rent section of hell reserved for those bastards who continually conned people into buying into this scam.
I hope they ALL get to do some prison time.
Yeah, I thought I already covered all this - I spoke to IR yesterday and they (she) confirmed that FK Oncology is a subsidiary of FK Pharmaceuticals, but has nothing to do with APP Pharma (& the CVR's) beyond marketing and selling drugs inside the U.S. THROUGH APP Pharma.
That's why they bought APP Pharma in the 1st place. So they could market and sell their drugs inside the U.S. It's as simple as that.
So only U.S. sales of these two drugs will go towards APP (and, thus, this CVR's) adjusted EBITDA.
Yeah, I thought I already covered all that - I spoke to IR yesterday and she confirmed that FK Oncology is a subsidiary of FK Pharmaceuticals, but has nothing to do with APP Pharma (& the CVR's) beyond marketing and selling drugs inside the U.S. THROUGH APP Pharma.
That's why they bought APP Pharma in the 1st place. So they could market and sell their drugs inside the U.S. It's as simple as that.
So only U.S. sales of these two drugs will go towards their adjusted EBITDA.
Did You Know that the amount payable to holders of the CVR's is UP TO $6 a share. A lot of "less-sophisticated investors" (of which there are too many to count on this and the Yahoo board) think that, if they meet the 1.267 bln threshold, then they're worth $6 a share - not so.
The shares are worth UP TO 2.5 times the amount of anything OVER $1.267 bln. Meaning, if they just happen to get over the threshold, by, like, let's say, $1.63 mln. Then each share is worth $2.50. Get it? With a total amount not to exceed $980 mln, or $6 a share.
But if they only manage to get over the threshold by, let's say, $163 THOUSAND - than each share is worth only 2.5 PENNIES.
Do you get it now? It's an amount "to be determined." After Dec. 31st, 2010. Payable in June, 2011.
But, the bottom line is this - they've so far made $773,926,000 towards the $1.267 bln EBTIDA over the course of the last 9 qtrs. They need to - somehow - make an additional $531 mln in the next 3 qtrs. The PPS has something to do with whether they make it or not. Anything over .97 a share gets written down in the books as a profit. Anything UNDER .97 a share gets written down as a loss.
So, on average, they've made somewhere in the neighborhood of $84 mln a qtr. for the last 9 qtrs. They need to more than double that in the next 3 qtrs. in order to make the threshold. It's possible - but unlikely - that they'll do it. If you take U.S. sales of these 2 cancer drugs that just got approved for FK Oncology (about $1.5 bln annually in the U.S., of which they can expect to get a cut - whatever that cut may be), you take sales of Propofol - I think they're now the only game in town with that drug, currently - which are around $375-$400 mln annually, and you take the PPS.
Maybe they can do it. I don't know.
That's only $9K worth of shares. Not a big deal, dude.
Whoa - Just did a quick search and came up with annual sales in the U.S. for Propofol are $375-$400 mln annually.
That ain't chump change. And, it sounds to me, like APP Pharma is now the only game in town when it comes to this.
The Link isn't Posting, for some reason. But, anyway, if you do a Google news search for APP Pharmaceuticals, about the 4th or 5th one down is an article from Javma News, which states...
FDA Allows Propofol Imports to Address Short Supply
The Food and Drug Administration is temporarily allowing APP Pharmaceuticals to import an unapproved propofol 1 percent product to help address a shortage of the anesthetic agent.
APP previously received FDA approval, late last year, to import and distribute Fresenius Propoven 1% after recalls of propofol injection by other U.S. manufacturers—Hospira and Teva Animal Health. The FDA reinstated permission for APP to import Fresenius Propoven 1% following continuing supply issues with other U.S. manufacturers.
APP's parent company, Fresenius Kabi of Germany, manufactures Fresenius Propoven 1% in FDA-compliant facilities.
APP, with FDA agreement, is temporarily introducing Fresenius Propoven 1% in a 20-mL glass ampule. Health care providers should use a 5 micron filter when withdrawing the product from the glass ampule. APP is shipping a Becton Dickinson 5 micron blunt filter needle with each 20-mL glass ampule of Fresenius Propoven 1%.
Fresenius Propoven 1% is also available in 20-mL, 50-mL, and 100-mL vials. APP will continue to offer its own brand-name propofol 1% product, Diprivan, and increase the supply of its generic product.
I think this is going to have SOME kind of positive impact on their adjusted EBITDA, along with the approval of the other two drugs being marketed and sold in the U.S.
But will they be able to make north of $177 mln a qtr for the next 3 qtrs., is still the question?
So to Ka-Ching: Sorry, I thought you were talking about me in your post. (Still think your ID merits derision, though. But, anyway - all the best!)
As for the rest of you - you have to ask yourself, "will U.S. sales for these two drugs help them achieve $531 mln in EBITDA in the next 3 qtrs.?"
I don't know.
The ultimate goal is 1.267 Bln spread out over 3 years. They're $531 mln away from making that goal. It took them 9 qtrs. to make $736,000,000. So, bearing in mind that they can count the U.S. sales of these two pretty big cancer drugs towards their EBITDA, plus you have this (which went virtually unnoticed earlier this month...
http://www.avma.org/onlnews/javma/may10/...
So they've been making on average about $81 mln a qtr for the last 9 qtrs. Can they now expect to report adjusted EBITDA of $177 mln a qtr for the next 3 qtrs.?
THAT is the 980 million dollar question.
Now I Have a Question - I hope that cleared up a lot of confusion for you guys. I know it did for me. And I look at this as good news, if you're long (as I am - despite what a simpleton like Ka-Ching might have you believe.)
Now, my question is - what's the avg that these guys have reported as EBITDA for the last, say, 3 qtrs? That's the most important factor right there. The whole deal started in 2008 - by the time Dec. 31st rolls around, it'll be 3 years, total.) So the whole deal calls for them to make $1.67 Bln in 3 years as EBITDA. They are $531 mln away. So it's taken them a little over two years to get over 2 1/3rds of the way there.
They just increased their chances significantly with this news.
And, what a lot of people haven't taken into consideration, is THIS bit of news, that just came out earlier this month, and, I think, will have a HUGE impact on their adjusted EBITDA.
You be the judge.
http://www.avma.org/onlnews/javma/may10/100515c.asp
But, still, what's the avg quarterly EBITDA for these guys for the last 3 or 4 qtrs.?
Thx.
I Have the Answer You're ALL Looking For... Just got off the phone with IR at APP Pharma - a lovely sounding young woman named Christine Cassiano - and I asked her, point blank, if KF Oncology was the same as APP Pharma, and the answer was no....
HOWEVER (& this is where it gets tricky)...
Any drug approved for KF Oncology, of KF, or whoever, that is going to be marketed in the US, is going to be sold by APP Pharma. So any EBITDA that would show up as a result of sales in the US will show up in relation to the CVR's.
So there you have it. There's competition for these drugs, of course, but APP Pharma will get the rev on their books for anything sold in the U.S.
So figure out what the U.S. market is for these two drugs, figure out a conservative estimate for what APP might be able to hone in on, and - et voila - you can get an idea of whether or not they'll make the remaining $531 mln in the next 3 qtrs.
See, that was easy.
So that's what just kept me from selling right then and there - your post. I don't know if that was the intended response. But that's what happened.
Apparently, KF Oncology used to be Dabur Pharma Ltd., which was also bought by Fesenius Kabi Pharmaceuticals, along with APP Pharma.
Now the CVR's are relative to the adjusted EBITDA of all of the subsidiaries, including FK Oncology, as well as APP Pharma. So, I'm pretty sure, anyway, that it doesn't matter WHO got the approval - all the sales are ratcheted up under one co., as represented by the CVR's.
I'm gonna hold - because, either way, I'm pretty sure it's gonna get another run before Dec. 31st.
Alright - So What's the Deal Here? Is it for Fresenius or is it for APP's CVR's that sales of these two drugs will presumably show up as adjusted EBTIDA? I saw several posts on both Yahoo and here stating that it's Fresenius Oncology that will reap the fruits of these two drugs. But, until I see differently, it's still conjecture. I'm only a penny off my buy-in price, and I still say this thing gets one more run before Dec. 31st if for no other reason that it'll give the MM's another opportunity to short it back down to zero.
But, still, I'd like to know for sure whether these two drugs were tentatively approved as part of APP or FK oncology?
It should be pretty simple to find out - was there a PR listed under the stock symbol on the Bombay Stock Exchange it trades on?
It's Not Exactly In Fresenius Kabi's Best Interests to have those goals met, now, is it?
Why would they want to have to pay out an additional $980 Mln if they can help it?
Just sayin'. (Disclosure - I'm in for 100K shares @ .15.)
Does Anyone Know the Float?
I looked everywhere, and the only info I can find is on Google - they say 163 mln shares. Yahoo has NOTHING down under key statistics (which is always troubling.) And otcmarkets.com has nothing down for them, either.
I hope it's not a deal where they have 1/2 a billion f_cking shares.
I would stay away from HDVY - the float's too big and they have no cash and the who thing is pretty shaky looking, in my opinion.
As for why I think VRML is a $60 stock is because of the sales potential. I am in disagreement with Adam F. from thestreet on this one. But I've been in disagreement with him on a lot of things before - notably HGSI and DNDN. The guy almost ALWAYS gets it wrong.
I think VRML and GDX are going to see more sales than that idiot printed. I think he's behind this whole short attack, to tell you the truth. Because he prints the article, and a couple of days later this thing begins a month's long decline. But what goes down usually comes back up. Everything should be cleared up on the CC on Monday. If they offer positive forward guidance, this thing is going to take off, just knowing the short interest on it. If another fund takes a counter position, they could cause the shorts a lot of damage. And that's usually the way it goes.
We'll see, though. We'll see. So far, though, my prediction of 18 as a low came true. Let's see if the rest of it comes true, too.
Oh, I see it - my bad. There was 1,903,653 shares sold by major holders. But there was also 1,476,273 bought by major holders during that same period.
That was the bottom right there - 18 and change. I should've waited to buy in. I kinda figured they'd take it down to 18.
But I am absolutely convinced that this is going to double, maybe triple, from this level And, any day now, they're going to be trading on the NASDAQ.
So where's the link? 'cause I can't find it. Which means you're full of sh!t.
WTF Are You Talking About?...
If you're going to post nonsense on the board, the least you could do is learn to write your lies in English.
In other news, the court approved their plan to give 3 board members $5 mln in cash, and about 300K shares subject to time-restricted vesting (which means that they have to wait to sell the shares, maybe years; I guess we'll find out on Monday during the C.C.)
I expect short covering by the end of the day 'cause who would want to go into the CC on Monday short.
As I posted in one of the posts below, by my calculations, this is a $60 stock, at least.
Just Got Off the Phone w/I.R.
Spoke to a very nice woman named Susan. She called me back (which was cool of her.) I asked her if the Big Boys on Wall st. were privy to some news that the rest of us mere mortals didn't have. She said no, and that it's just a case of over-aggressive shorts going after the stock. Which made me feel a lot better. She said things are as "good as they can get" for them, currently. She seemed very enthusiastic about the co. Said she had been taking calls like this all day from some of big institutional investors. So, we'll see.
What I expect to happen is that tomorrow, they might be able to knock it down to 18 - maybe - and then you're going to see a flurry of short covering by the end of the day, because I can't imagine anyone wanting to go into the weekend and into the CC on Monday short. I know I wouldn't.
And then, this time around, I fully expect the stock to go to $40 and up. Maybe even $60.
These tests cost $600 each. Each year, about 25,000 cases of ovarian cancer are found in the US alone. About 16K die from it, annually. I don't know what the stats are world wide, but I'm sure it's a lot. They already have DGX marketing and selling the test for them internationally. But I think a conservative estimate of revenue would be about $100 mln annually for VRML. They have 6.38 mln shares- so that translates into $15.67 a share in revenue. But with margin & DGX's cut and what not, we'll say - again - conservatively - $9 a share in cash.
With a P/E of 11 - which is SERIOUSLY conservative (AAPL has a P/E of 24.29) - puts this around $100 a share. But I'm thinking more along the lines of $60, realistically.
And we all know how this thing trades - just when you can't believe how high it's gone up, it pulls back, only to double from there. After speaking to Susan today, I can't see why this time would be any different. Remember - they have the ONLY test in the world that can determine whether a ovarian tumor is malignant.
I got me 4K shares averaged in @ 20.70. I wish I had waited a little longer, but I didn't want to risk missing out on some violent upswing. They may be able to get it down to 18 on the open, which is probably gonna trigger a lot of stop-losses, so they may knock it down even farther. In which case I'll buy more (I can afford another 3K @ 18, max.)
But, regardless, this bitch is going back up - WAY back the fuck up.
Good luck.
Two Forms Filed Recently.
One was a Form 13-G/A, which is an admission that someone own's over 5% of the stock, and I would imagine that was the fund who bought up those 2.5 million shares a few weeks ago. Turns out it was Invesco. (I found it interesting because SPIR doesn't trade 2.5 mln shares in 6 months.)
And then their was a proxy statement form 14-E. To...
1.To fix the number of directors at eight and to elect seven directors to serve for one year, leaving one vacancy.
2.To ratify the selection of Caturano and Company, P.C. as the Company’s independent registered public accountants for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2010.
3.To transact such other business as may properly come before the Meeting.
I can't imagine that any of this would be the cause of the stock going down so hard. As of this writing, every single solar stock I can find is going vertical, and this is down 2% on less than 20K shares traded.
But what I don't get is why? Is has NEVER stayed under FIVE for longer than a few weeks. What the hell is going on?
Some Fund Clearly Wants this Down to $3 or Under.
Someone on the Yahoo message board said they called I.R. at Netlist, and was told not to expect anything until the 3rd qtr of this year. In the meantime, I can't see anything that's going to bring this stock up, not when some Hedge Fund seems hell-bent on dragging this down at any cost. Every single pop is followed by a precipitous drop. Just angry type selling pressure.
Now, I made plenty of money off this stock since last November, buying and selling, getting in and out. But, other than what we know, which is not a lot. What's to keep the stock from falling further?
This is Horrifying to Watch.
I bought in a couple of weeks ago @ 3.40, because it's never stayed under 4 for longer than a few weeks, before going back up to the $5 area. And I didn't sell when it went to 4.50 the day after they put out their 10-K, because the volume really wasn't there, and I thought it would go higher.
Now here we are 2 weeks later, the market's gone parabolic, virtually every single solar stock has gone completely vertical... and yet this thing is just drifting down on the lowest volume I've ever seen. It's crazy, is what it is.
If I were to put in a market order to sell my 15K shares, I would probably crash the thing back down to 3.40 on my own, is how light the volume is. So I'm stuck. Can't even sell.
I guess my question is - is their technology obsolete or something? Their photovoltaic technology? Because, other than their absurd gross margin (94%?!!) the company's doing really well - their revenue is up year after year, they have no debt, they continue to get Government contracts, etc. etc.
So does anyone have any thoughts on why the stock just keeps going down day after day?
What the Hell is Going On?
I've been watching this stock trade for the past year - and the game plan for the MM's running the show usually involves jacking up the stock, then reeling it back in, and then having it double from there. However, this drop, this time, is really over the top. Does anyone have any information?
I bought in yesterday @ 20.70, thinking that that HAD to be the bottom, for now. If I had 1/2 a brain, or had given it a little more thought, I would've waited till today or tomorrow morning to buy in. Because once 22 fell, 18 is the next level of support. So I'm starting to think that they'll drop it down to 18, and then there'll be a flurry of short covering before the close tomorrow, because I can't imagine anyone wanting to go into this CC on Monday short.
But I could be wrong. Maybe there's some news out that we, the little people, don't know about. I can't get IR to return my call. So I just blindly bought. But there could be some news out there - other than them filing their 10-K late (that's not THAT big a deal; not a 45% drop-type of big deal.)
So, again, does ANYONE know anything as to why the stock has taken such a huge hit?
Thanks.
Wow, what's it like being so delusional? I love how you can't just take a guy's word at face value - you have to make all these deranged assumptions,...
"He probably bought @ .24! LOL!!"
"He probably meant to say he has 9 shares!!!"
"He's probably just some day trader that got caught out there."
That sure is a lot of "probably's."
No, what happened is exactly what I said happened - I bought on Wed. @ .14, and was kicking myself for not selling @ .19. Maybe it was all the pumping done by YOU idiots that kept me from selling. But MM's playing with the spread is what made me finally sell. I guess you guys have no idea what it takes to actually trade, so it doesn't bother you. But - call me crazy - I can't trade without knowing what the spread is.
Anyway, like I said before - I'll buy back in when they crash it back down to under a dime. (What - you really don't think they can? Now THAT'S something to "LOL" about.)
How the hell do you know how many shares I'm holding? You just ASSUME I'm holding a small position? Actually, I'm holding 90K shares @ .135/.14. And I am exiting that position right now @ .15. You see all those trades going through? Those are my shares. I'm not sitting in any stock where I can't see the bid/ask. And the criminal MM's that are running the show on this are constantly changing the spread I CAN see - to .08/.19... .1401/.37... some goofy sh!t.
You want to trade a stock that moves like that? Be my guest. I wouldn't care if it went up to $1 in the next ten minutes. I want out. Now.
And did you know, by the way, that this company has the same Investor Relations as HEB? Funny, huh? One of the most scam ridden, fugazi drug companies trading on the market right now, and they share IR with them.
Good luck to you, sir.
What's really strange is that if you look at NASDAQ level II for this, there's a whole bunch of asks set starting @ .199 going all the way up to .60. Conversely, there's a bunch of bids starting @ .105 (25K shares) and .11.
http://www.level2stockquotes.com/level-ii-quotes.html
And now, even though volume has fallen off a cliff. Whosever buying is now hitting the ask, as opposed to going down to the bid.
I'm starting to wish I'd never bought this stock. I HATE OTCBB stocks.
In terms of the trading action on this being weird, I would have to agree. I've never really seen anything like it. It makes trading almost impossible. Fidelity and thinkorswim kept showing the same thing almost everybody else was showing, and that's .1401 on the bid/.24 on the ask. At one point the ask was .37. Etrade, however, was showing whatever the real bid/ask was. I think it's pretty clear the MM's are playing games. What makes me think this still has a slight chance of going up today is the fact that another guy on the Google board had a bid in for 20K shares @ .15 all day. At the end of the day, when they managed to drop it down to .15 on 139K shares, he only managed to get 500 shares filled @ .155. THAT'S weird.
And then there's the fact that over 80% of the volume over the last 3 days has been above .16. That's almost 9 million shares out of a little over 11 million traded. A lot of these were on the ask. Then there was that 200K share block that went through @ .165 - at the ask - around 1:15 EST. Something's not right with this.
Does anyone plan on selling or buying more today? I'd love to hear other's thoughts on this.
Here's something to think about, in terms of whether the market views them raising the A/S in the coming weeks - the last time they did this, on Dec. 19th, 2008, the stock opened @ .06, hit a high of .11, and closed @ .10, with over 2 million shares traded. That's almost a 100% increase in the price of the stock. The day before it had traded only 100K shares.
So they're voting on it this weekend. The vote will definitely be yes. 5 days later they're doing another issuance of 1K shares of series E preferred + the warrants to Epic. If last time was any indication, we could get a day - either on Friday or Monday or (who knows?) one day soon - where we could see massive volume traded and the stock make a run at its 52 wk high.
It seems like right now a tenuous floor has been established around .17/.18. That's where the bulk of the 10 million shares over the last 2 days have been traded. SOMEBODY'S buying all these shares. So, with that in mind, if there's a day coming up where we actually see some REAL volume (like, 50 or 60 million shares traded) this could really go parabolic and establish a whole new trading range in the .30 - .40 range, which is where it was trading last summer ('08.)
Or it could just drift back down to .10 on low volume, like it usually does. I don't know. I sure wish they'd wise up and release some news on the top line results for the phase III oxycodone CR. That'd be nice. But I guess they're not interested in doubling their market cap overnight.
1/2 a million shares trade above .18 this morning - ALL buys, ALL on the uptick... and then a few thousand drops it down to .16/.17. That's insane. The spread I'm getting from both Fidelity and thinkorswim is .1401 on the bid, and .24 on the ask. Does anyone have etrade? Is anyone else seeing a different bid/ask than I am?
Why is ELTP giving away the farm to Epic for such little money? I'm NOT bashing - I have a butt load of shares @ .14 - but, seriously, I just want to know. If you've read the proxy, as I have, over and over again, you'll see that all Epic is giving them is a million dollars 3 times - once back in June, once 5 days after the meeting, and again next June. In exchange their getting 1K series E preferred shares (convertible to 20 Million common shares @ .0625) and 7 year warrants to buy 40 Million common @ .0625.) That works out to $3,750,000. So their basically lending them money @ 375% interest. Does that seem like a good deal to you? And, in the end, Epic is going to end up with voting control of the company. All for $3 million? What am I missing here? Are they THAT hard up for money?
Again - I'm NOT bashing. I'd just really like to know. If there's someone out there smarter than me that can explain this or maybe point out something I'm missing, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks.