Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Martin M:
"Opec’s current foreign exchange reserves current exceed $200bn. In order to lift its gold reserves to about 15%, some 50 million oz of gold would have to be bought, equal to $22.5bn or 350 million barrels of oil. “This would not appear to be a hardship,” said Martin Murenbeeld, a US economist with the Dundee Group who correctly forecast this year’s average gold price of $441/oz within a $6 range.
“At this point we suggest one ‘plans’ on something around $500 for 2006, but gold could clearly go substantially higher in the event the dollar plunges and monetary reflation comes early,” Murenbeeld said."
http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/499490.htm
a long term hold for you...!! "for at least a quarter, maybe two"
Here's my analysis:
1) In 2Q PAL had both mill throughput and recovery problems
2) In 3Q, per very important 10/6 press release, PAL resolved the mill throughput issue but had terrible recovery at 63% compared to 74% recent historical average.
3) Per guidance in 10/6 release, PAL has now resolved recovery issue it appears, they guided 4Q production of palladium to 56K ounces vs. 40K ounces in 3Q and 48K ounces in 2Q.
4) High Grade from underground which they will mix with low grade open pit starting 1Q06 should significantly improve palladium production for 2006.
Ok, I loaded up on PAL @ US$4.51
Happy Thanksgiving!!
SA Rand
"One point to note is that on Thursday this week, South Africa’s Reserve Bank will announce its decision on what to do with interest rates. Although this time, higher inflation, at about 4.8% compared to 3.7% last August, may prevent another cut...
Traders said the unit was likely to remain range-bound between 6.47 and 6.57 versus the greenback as local markets wait for the outcome of the central bank's two-day policy meeting on Thursday, expected to leave interest rates on hold.
"We expect the bank to leave rates unchanged but there will be a hawkish tone to the commentary which should give a bit of support to the rand," a local dealer said.
"We are not looking at cuts any more, we are looking at hikes next year. I also think the market is a bit long of dollars, gold prices are supporting it and there's a bit of squaring up ahead of Thursday."
A Reuters poll showed that 19 out of 20 economists expect the Reserve Bank to leave its key repo rate steady at 7 percent, with 12 predicting a hike next year and three looking for another reduction.
The rand has been undermined in the past week by a negative shift in sentiment towards emerging markets and an abrupt retreat in the euro, the currency of South Africa's main trade partner which it often tracks.
But it got a boost on Monday from the price of gold, which hovered near an 18-year peak above $474 an ounce, on continued support from global inflation worries. South Africa is the world's main gold producer."
Palladium, you are likely right, everyone else is bearish on Palladium but you...?
______
http://www.gfmsanalytics.com/Publications%20Samples/Precious%20Metals%20Market%20Briefing%20-%20Octo....
Oct 2005
Palladium’s fundamentals point, largely, to sideways trading and that is more or less what the market has been doing for a considerable period, with trading bounded largely by the $180 and $200 levels.
This was broadly true also in September, with persistent tests of support at $180 holding good on the back of steady industrial interest. Although there are still plenty of above-ground inventories (on NYMEX alone, for example, they amount to five weeks’ global demand), it is believed that the inventory in the North American automotive industry has been more or less worked off and this is giving the market some support.
As a consequence, and fuelled to some extent by the bullish news covered above (with the exception of the possibility of diesel penetration in the US), Japanese investment buying appeared in size in the third week of the month and prompted a rapid jump with prices moving as much as $16 in one day to reach $202. Although prices have subsequently come down in US dollar terms, they appear to have changed range in yen terms, with support now emerging at ¥690/g - although whether this can be sustained must also be open to question.
The liquidation that developed following this rally saw prices down to $190, where industrial interest has appeared, so the entry point for this buying has, at least, risen by $10 over the course of the month. This was enough to prompt further fund interest, but this market has to be viewed with caution given that it remains in a small surplus and one that may well increase next year as diesel continues its push for market share and platinum producers bring on new projects towards the end of next year.
______
"Palladium - Sept 05
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/FortisMetalsMonthlySep05.pdf
News
Aug 10th: North American Palladium reported for Q2 2005 (to June 30th) a 37% decline in palladium production compared to the same period last year, with a net loss of more than $15.22m vs. net profits of more than $2.83m during the same period last year.
Analysis
Investors ebbing away?
Palladium remained on the sidelines in August, the London pm fix ranging across a narrow $11 spectrum, from its early high, of $193/oz on the 3rd to a low of $182/oz, on several days through the month. This weakness reflected the trading position on Nymex, where there was a fairly substantial sell-off during August (a decline of 212,800 ozs to 247,900 ozs in the large net longs over the month, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission) managed to pull the price down. There are still plenty of net longs out there, to the tune globally of 570,021 ozs at the latest count, but this is the lowest since December 2003 by our estimations. Palladium may not swiftly be headed below $170/oz - but $250/oz is increasingly a fantasy.
Stillwater Mining president and chief executive, Frank McAllister, said he believed the automotive industry has depleted its palladium stockpile, and pointed to the fact that the US Defence Department is continuing to sell its palladium stockpile. He said he believes Russia still has a significant inventory, and added that Stillwater will use up its own stockpile during Q1 2006.
__________________
4) 2005 1oz Palladium Maple Leaf - Brand new just released!
Current Sell price - $223
(Minimum order 20oz)
Shipment will be the week of October 31st
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#specials
What Inflation? - ECRI Future Inflation Gauge
Inflation gauge at highest in over 5 yrs
Oct 7, 2005 — NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures climbed in September to their highest in over five years, according to a report on Friday that suggested the Federal Reserve was right to remain vigilant over price increases.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Future Inflation Gauge rose to 122.7 last month, its highest since June 2000, the tail end of the late 1990s economic boom.
August's reading was revised down to 120.7.
Over the past few weeks, Fed officials have gone out of their way to remind investors and consumers that they must continue to raise interest rates to ward off inflation.
The survey's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out month-to-month variance, jumped to 6.6 percent from 3.7 percent.
"If the Fed continues to approach policy as an exercise in managing risks, the clear danger remains inflation and not recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, an independent research group.
"Certainly, for people who live in the real world, talking about inflation while ignoring food and energy prices, as economists still do, is like asking, "Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" And even some dismal scientists believe that energy, at least, should get closer scrutiny. "One could argue strongly that a key element driving inflation is indeed energy," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which produces a leading inflation indicator that includes energy prices. "I don't know what you accomplish by removing energy from the discussion -- it's 'core' to the discussion."
US$ taking a whacking over night....
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2512
Politics-Nice to see Zoellick meeting & discussing issues with Herty...
____________________
US's Zoellick steps into Nicaragua political crisis
Wed Oct 5, 2005 12:33 PM ET
MANAGUA, Nicaragua (Reuters) - Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, stepping into a political crisis in Nicaragua, met a one-time Sandinista loyalist on Wednesday to press U.S. influence in the divided Central American nation.
The discussion with former Managua mayor Herty Lewites, now critical of his former allies, was part of an effort to thwart what Zoellick called a "creeping coup" by Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega and former right-wing president Arnoldo Aleman.
On a two-day visit to Managua, the State Department's number two official has piled pressure on Sandinista and rightist opposition leaders whom Washington accuses of undermining President Enrique Bolanos, a U.S. ally.
He announced that the United States had revoked visas held by Nicaragua's attorney general and Aleman's two adult children and threatened to withhold millions of dollars in aid.
Ahead of Wednesday's meeting, Zoellick said he was eager to meet Lewites "because he stood against the pact," a reference to the unlikely alliance between Aleman's Liberal Party and the Sandinistas.
"I want to get a better sense of his vision and sense of direction," Zoellick said.
Ortega and Aleman's alliance already controls the judicial and legislative branches of government and the conflict has at times threatened to force Bolanos from office.
Ortega, an old adversary of Washington, was Nicaragua's president in the 1980s during a civil war against the U.S.-backed Contra rebels.
U.S. officials have expressed concerns that Ortega, who Washington accused of running a Soviet-backed government during the Cold War, could return to office when elections are held next year.
As he delivered his blunt U.S. message and probed political possibilities, Zoellick also met on Tuesday with Eduardo Montealegre and Jose Alvarado, two Liberal Party politicians now at odds with their party.
Like Lewites, they have expressed interest in running for president and are trying to decide if it is practical without a major political party behind them, a U.S. official said.
The U.S. diplomat also met leaders of the Moviemiento para Nicaragua, an activist group that has organized pro-democracy demonstrations.
Afterward, members praised the interventionist U.S. approach to Nicaragua's political crisis and Zoellick's support for new political players.
"Both the left and right need new options in which they can compete democratically for power and to open new spaces," Rhina Cardenal, a prominent television personality and Moviemiento member, told Reuters.
"We have a strong left wing current in Nicaragua, but if the only choice they have is with Ortega's party, where do they go? The same thing from the right ... We need choices," she said.
Nicaragua Politics
US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick arrived in Nicaragua yesterday...
______
Why is congress being accused of trying to oust Bolanos?
Two of Mr Bolanos' ministers and three senior officials have been stripped of their immunity from prosecution so they can be investigated for alleged campaign funding irregularities.
Mr Bolanos himself faces having his immunity removed and possibly an impeachment. Congress is also debating constitutional reforms limiting the president's power, despite a ruling by the Central American Court of Justice which declared them inapplicable.
The president has said he will view any attempt to impeach him as a coup against his government.
Has Mr Bolanos received any support?
Nicaragua's Central American neighbours and the Organization of American States have expressed their concern over the crisis and backed the Nicaraguan president.
Visiting the country in October 2005, US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick demanded that Nicaraguan politicians halt their efforts to topple Mr Bolanos and reach an agreement with the government.
Why has the US stepped in?
Nicaragua is due to hold general elections next year. Observers say that Washington - which has expressed its unconditional backing to the Bolanos government - is concerned about the possibility of the Sandinistas returning to power. The Sandinistas were voted out of office in the 1990 presidential elections, after a 10-year civil war against the US-backed Contras.
If President Bolanos is ousted, what would the consequences for Nicaragua be?
Nicaragua could face isolation. The US has said that if Bolanos and his aides are impeached, this would immediately rule out a $175m US grant to Nicaragua and possibly $4bn of debt relief. The country could also lose its membership of Cafta, the Central American Free Trade Agreement which brings together the US and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic.
There could also be consequences for Nicaragua's opposition leaders. Aleman's supporters could be barred from travelling to the US and other countries. This is a specially sensitive issue, because many Liberal Party members fled to the US or sent relatives there after the leftist Sandinista revolutionaries forced the Anastasio Somoza regime from power on 19 July 1979.
Last part bolded only because I could never quite figure out why US was suspending US Visas for Aleman's daughter and other Liberal Party members and what leverage this gave USA, now I understand... Well, in any event, RNC is Canadian company so let's hope USA actions not relevant to RNC...
GBN comments about minute 18:45
go to:
Tuesday 8:00PM
Market Call Tonight with Howard Green
Small cap gold mining stocks
Jay Taylor, editor, miningstocks.com
http://www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv?day=tue
I have a suspicion that the new RNC PP will be at C$.70 judging by the recent trading... We'll see.
From: TheSlowLane 10/4/2005 4:14:56 PM
Update for Chesapeakers...
Randy sez:
Crew has been drilling a hole a week and were drilling up until this last weekend. They are taking a 12-day hiatus and then drilling will resume (with a new crew). They will be drilling Gitana right up until Christmas.
It's been a horribly wet rainy season. They are getting hammered with rain and that is making everything more difficult logistically. This has slowed everything down, but not halted it. As they are drilling on the sides of hills and mountains, you can imagine what heavy rain does to interfere there.
The last couple of holes from this set (of 9) are being logged and will be off to the labs after that. Now looking like early November for results. All of the holes will be released at the same time. I asked if the cores were consistent with the last set of holes and was told that they are. Should not be any nasty surprises there.
They are still several hundred meters from the suspected bonanza zone (the honey pot), so it will be next year before they get to drill there. In the mean time, they have been doing lots of geo work and it is correlating with the drilling and logging so they are coming up with more targets to drill based on that work. LG has always been somewhat tricky due to its surface expression, but it sounds like they are getting to know her better by now.
Work on Pena Blanca continues to advance that prospect. It is a big, big target that they should be drilling by Q1. It is spread over at least two square kilometers of alteration and low-grade mineralization. They will likely add a second drill to do this work so they can keep the drill working La Gitana without interruption.
On the JV side...it has been impossible for anyone to come in and look at the properties due to the weather. By November, that will no longer be an issue. One company will be coming for sure, another one is likely. Pretty sure we will see at least one JV by the end of the year.
Geo work on La Calavera continues. This is the last step to getting the property drill ready and it will be done before Christmas.
That's about it. Oh yeah, the company will have a booth at PDAC.
Stay tuned...
Rand price of platinum/gold
http://www.miningmx.com/mining_fin/496285.htm
The rand/platinum price is still looking very bullish. It's recently broken out of a medium-term falling channel (lines 3 and 4). The bigger picture has it pointing to a far higher target, based on a large falling wedge (lines 1 and 2) breakout in May.
The MACD oscillator (on top) has plenty of upside potential and it's only crossing its zero line now (a bullish sign, confirming the price chart itself).
Continue buying SA platinum stocks on pullbacks, focusing mainly on Impala and Amplats (but Northam is also looking exceptionally good).
The upside target for the rand/platinum price is 6 910 ie, the height of the large falling wedge projected up. (The price at the time of writing is 5 920.) Place your stop-loss as a close below line 4 for traders (5 800) and below 5 600 for investors.
Endeavour Mining just keeps plugging away on the upside...
Gold rising against all currencies these past three months...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6713015
but not against the C$ today!!
Denver Gold Slides
Martin M
Not a member of the $700 Club, but note his much higher Scenario C probability this year... (up from 30% to 43%)
2006 Forecast
Prior Year/2005 Forecast
thanks much!
RNC Possibly Most Leveraged Listed Junior Producer to Gold
By David J. DesLauriers
26 Sep 2005 at 08:40 PM EDT
DENVER (ResourceInvestor.com) -- When investors buy gold shares, especially the shares of junior producers, it is usually because they believe in the fundamentals of the metal first and foremost, and believe that gold is going higher.
With that in mind, the wise investor chooses vehicles that will do well at the current gold price, but that will far exceed their peers in share price performance if gold does what Goldcorp’s [TSX:G; NYSE:GG] CE Ian Telfer has recently suggested, i.e. if the yellow metal breaks out to $800 an ounce in the next two years.
Resource Investor was able to catch up to RNC Gold [TSX:RNC] Vice President of Finance and company founder Tom Lough, and learned that the company, which has been badly beaten in the market of late, is starting to turn things around.
Because RNC has several operations and two new mines nearing production, it is easiest to tackle the important questions in point form.
Why have RNC shares been beaten up by the market? Because they disappointed on their La Libertad production forecasts, but the issue was not grade or recoveries – simply that they could not move enough tonnage to the leach pads because they didn’t have enough equipment. This has been solved by the appointment of a contract miner.
Some investors associate the RNC assets with the fall of Greenstone in the late 90s and this has caused some wariness, but higher gold prices and a new look at the various mine plans are solving those problems.
RNC needs approximately $25 million to put their Cerro Quema and San Andreas projects back into production, and the company is currently pursuing its financing options, which should be a mixture of equity and debt. It is a possibility that some hedging would be required but likely would amount to only a small portion of the overall production profile.
Because some out of the money warrants are set to expire in December, RNC presently only has about 49 million shares fully diluted (of which management owns 20%), and a market cap of roughly C$30 million.
RNC’s operations are in Honduras, Nicuragua and Panama, and the company believes that it has the best land package in Central America. The company is seasoned in dealing with relations on the ground, and RNC has contracts in place with the local communities, so the Bishops and anti-mining NGOs shouldn’t be a serious worry.
RNC plans to grow its reserves, and thus its cash flow multiple by focusing on the strong exploration potential and substantial land packages around each of its mines.
The fun part for investors is that if one assumes a debt/equity mix for Cerro Quema and San Andreas, RNC will at most have 100 million shares fully diluted, and at a current share price of C$0.62, a very small market capitalization for a company which expects to produce about 220,000 ounces of gold per annum in 2007.
What is more, for those who are seeking leverage, with cash costs of around $260, there is plenty of it. A little bit of back of the envelope math reveals the upside: Let’s assume 100 million shares f/d (on the high side) and $300 per ounce cash costs, higher than RNC’s projects $260:
At $450 gold, RNC cash flows $33 million or 33 cents per share using the discounted scenario which would put the stock at anywhere from C$2 to C$3.30 per share.
At $550, RNC cash flows $55 million or 55 cents a share resulting in a share price of anywhere from C$3.30 to C$5.50.
And at $800 gold, a number being bandied about these days, RNC cash flows $110 million or C$1.10 per share and with a mania and higher multiples RNC would be anywhere from C$10-C$15 per share.
It is a fun exercise to be sure, but it illustrates the leverage. At the high end of the estimate, RNC is a 24 bagger from here.
Conclusion
The key to this story is leverage and Tom Lough believes that RNC provides an unmatched combination of production and growth at the price. This is a story that is making its way back, and if management can deliver on production and timing, the risk to reward is unbelievable, especially for those who are big believers in the future performance of the gold price.
Faber
'Gold price increase because central banks printing money' - Dr Marc Faber
In an interview on ClassicFM @ 18:20 on Friday, 23 September 2005
[miningmx.com] -- Swiss-born Hong Kong-based economics expert Dr Marc Faber is in South Africa, having recently addressed an investment conference in Cape Town. The author of the Gloom, Doom and Boom Report - and author of bestselling book Tomorrow’s Gold, Dr Faber was interviewed by Classic Business Day, a week-nightly business programme broadcast on ClassicFM. Here is an overview of Dr Faber's opinions on a number of commodity-related issues:
Commodity cycles:
"Basically commodity cycles last a long time - 45 to 60 years. They are price cycles, and not business cycles
"We are in the process of completing the first leg of this bull market that can be followed by a meaningful correction. I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil down to $40 to $45 dollars, and copper down 30%," Faber said.
Outlook for commodities:
"The long-term outlook for commodities is favourable. I think that investors have to be positioned with the view that commodity prices will rise over the next 10 to 20-years," Faber said.
Precious metals and currencies:
"Precious metals like gold, silver and platinum are in many cases not really just precious metals, but also currencies. I would say in the world today we have a few large currencies - the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the Chinese yuan - and these are paper currencies where incompetent central bankers can increase the supply limitlessly. On the other hand gold has a very definite and finite supply - of around 2,500 tons per annum.
On the gold price:
"I think that the gold price increase since 2001 is reflecting the reality that central bankers are printing money - and I would imagine that gold prices in your and my lifetimes, since we’re so young, will be much higher than what it is now, expressed in US dollar terms," Faber said. He was speaking on ClassicFM on Friday evening.
Politics-Nicaraguans Worried About Electoral Fraud/ CAFTA
________________________
Key to RNC Nicaragua mine operations is a free and fair election. Ortega winning still a possibility, but a free & fair election is even more critical to Nicaragua/RNC. If Ortega wins in free & fair election, then so be it. Lewites (former Sandanista) is clearly frontrunner and would likely be much better for Nicaragua as this would end El Pacto of Aleman/Ortega.
Appears CAFTA will be passed by Nicaragua. Lewites in support of CAFTA and talking to business interests...
_______________________
Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in Nicaragua believe next year’s ballot might not be entirely free and fair, according to a poll by M&R published in La Prensa. 74.8 per cent of respondents think there is a risk of electoral fraud in the upcoming election.
In the 1996 ballot, Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) candidate Arnoldo Alemán defeated former president Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) with 48.7 per cent of all cast ballots. While Ortega alleged that the vote had been fraudulent, a group of international observers led by former United States president Jimmy Carter declared that "the election didn’t have any degree of fraud that would subvert the decision of the Nicaraguan people."
In 2001, PLC candidate Enrique Bolaños won the presidential election with 56.3 per cent of the vote. The president lost the support of the PLC in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against Alemán. Last year, the former head of state—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.
The independent Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) is in charge of organizing all ballots and referendums in the Central American nation. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2006.
Polling Data
Do you think there is a risk of electoral fraud in the upcoming elections?
Yes
74.8%
No
17.8%
No opinion
7.4%
Source: M&R / La Prensa
____________________
Opposition to CAFTA wanes in Nicaragua
Despite the country's leftist past, backers of the trade pact have gained ground.
By Danna Harman | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
MANAGUA, NICARAGUA - Marching down Universidad Avenue toward congress came thousands of protesters, throwing their fists into the heavy, humid air, waving anti-American placards. The demonstration against the proposed Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) earlier this month was expected to be about 20,000 people strong.
In fact, more like 4,000 people showed up.
In a country that spent a good number of the last 25 years battling US interests here, the predictable opposition to CAFTA has, in fact, been a little weaker - and the support for the trade pact broader and deeper - than expected.
Just down the street from the Managua protest, another scene - less bombastic, but arguably more significant - was playing out at the Crowne Plaza hotel. Eleven presidents of Nicaragua's chambers of industry sat in a vast air-conditioned room below a sign that read: "Yes to economic development, yes to CAFTA."
This summer, President Bush expended hefty political capital to get the controversial trade agreement passed. Four of the six co-signatories have already ratified it: the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Panama, and Guatemala. Costa Rica's labor unions, with monopolies in energy, telecom, and insurance are blocking its ratification.
In Nicaragua, the argument is more emotional, touching on the economic plight of central America's poorest country, its leftist past, and its troubled relationship with the US. And as the debate plays out, ratification of the agreement is stalled in Nicaragua's congress.
Eric Jacobstein, an expert on trade issues at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington, says CAFTA is "being used [by Nicaraguan politicians] as a way to express other issues ... not only as a way to oppose the US, but to gain political leverage." Still, he forecasts that despite arguments ahead, CAFTA will eventually pass in Nicaragua.
People like Juan Carlos Pereira, a Harvard Business School-educated Nicaraguan, says CAFTA can bring much-needed jobs to the country, which is way behind other Central American nations when it comes to investment. Honduras and El Salvador each export some $2 billion worth of apparel a year for example. Nicaragua is closer to $600 million. "We lost a decade in the '80s because of the war," says Mr. Pereira. "We are only now starting to catch up and we need CAFTA more than anyone else."
Pereira, who runs Pro-Nicaragua, a government-backed organization that seeks to attract investment says about $400 million worth of projects have come through his office. "That represents about 7,500 jobs that are coming to Central America. I don't know how many will come to Nicaragua, but I will tell you - if we don't have CAFTA, not a single one will come here," he says.
CAFTA's cheerleaders here also point out that Asian countries - which are increasingly inking trade deals in the region - will be more inclined to invest in a country with easy access to the US market and a binding commitment to intra-regional trade.
Helena Telles Bermuder, a hairdresser with three kids, could not make ends meet, she says, before she got a job at a new maquiladora (manufacturing plant) in Granada. Today she sews jeans for Woolworth's and other brands, and makes about $175 a month, almost double the minimum wage here. It's about three times more than she was earning before. "I don't understand the economics," she admits. "But I understand jobs. And if CAFTA can help me get one - I am for it."
Nicaragua's dire need for economic gains is beyond dispute. About 78 percent of Nicaraguans live in poverty - on less than $2 a day, according to Adolfo Acevedo, an economist in Managua.
But some economists like Mr. Acevedo question whether CAFTA will help or hurt. Even without CAFTA, he points out, 80 percent of Nicaraguan production is already allowed into the US without tariffs. The trade pact may encourage more investment in maquiladoras in Nicaragua, but he wonders out loud whether it will offset the farm jobs likely to be lost as cheap US agricultural produce sweeps into the country.
"We can't all work in maquiladoras," says Acevedo, "You need basic education. The maquiladoras and those higher-end plans don't signify any development at all for the masses."
Former president and Sandinista party leader Daniel Ortega's case against CAFTA is that the US is seeking to exploit the poorest countries to get the cheapest labor. More than that, it is a piece of geopolitical opportunism: "Bush is taking up CAFTA because it is his way of keeping central America from looking south," he said in an interview, suggesting Washington is seeking to splinter Nicaragua's solidarity with the Left in Latin America such as Hugo Chavez's government in Venezuela.
Politics, no doubt, will be central to CAFTA's fate in Nicaragua. But, ironically enough, the politics that will count will be the internal workings of Ortega's own Sandinista party - made up, these days, of an increasing number of businessmen.
In fact, one significant sighting at the Crowne Plaza was this: Herty Lewites, a longtime comrade of Ortega's in the Sandinista party who is now running against him for president in 2006, was in attendance at the meeting of business leaders. "Like it or not, CAFTA is coming," said Lewites, who is running first in the Nicaraguan polls. "If we are clever, we can ask for some adjustments - but rejecting it is wrong."
• Ms. Harman is Latin America bureau chief for the Monitor and USA Today.
in regard:
"doubt you'll find much to hang your hat on w/r to the predictive value of the LBMA data"
There can be no "predictive value of the LBMA data", since LBMA provides us with no data...
No, I am not kidding. As noted, COMEX is 16M ounces total net commercial short position (it took them weeks/months to build up this position) vs. 15.2M ounces trading per day at LBMA.
LBMA wholesale/commercial gold trading appears to be over 20 times COMEX trading, and we get no statistics whatsoever from LBMA.
Anyone using COT is looking at 5% of the market and hoping that this is representative to the real market action going on at LBMA.
With all due respect to Louis, I have a dog!! not a cat... Even if I had a cat, not sure it would be better than a barometer, and not sure that the COT acts as a barometer for the LBMA, thus I will keep my dog!!
Louis, COMEX gold is peanuts!!
If this is accurate, daily volume at LBMA is 15.2M ounces per DAY for Sept 05 vs. 16M oz total net commercial short on Comex as of last week.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/clearing_table.htm
Why do people (like you!!) even bother to analyze COMEX COT, it is clearly immaterial in the grand scheme of things.
More important would be to analyze London AM and PM fix which is likely how the LBMA clearing gets settled, i.e. that 15.2M ounces traded per day...
much better than the alternative...
"RNC is going up !!"
thanks, no point really... just wanted to ensure my math was accurate... also, could see net commercial short position being much higher, supporting hedges...
but you seemed to answer this:
"I have no idea of positions on the LBMA (a wholesale place, not an exchange)."
HL slide 26 comments
Fault was encountered on original incline path, thus HL had to veer west as shown on this slide.
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/63/632/63202/items/165626/HMCSeptember2005.pdf
HL and GBN trying to resolve their contract dispute differences without arbitration and out of court in the coming weeks (and well before year end).
HL likely to commence drilling in late October to firm up/convert inferred ounces to M&I ounces. Drill results likely about 30 days thereafter, i.e. Nov 2005.
Louis help me out!!! Just want to know whether these numbers are materially accurate...
Annual Gold production = 2,500 tonnes/yr = 80M ounces
COT net commercial short = 160,000 contracts = 16M ounces
Central Bank Sales = 500 tonnes/yr = 16M ounces
HL slide 26
anyone have the details on this underground re-design...
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/63/632/63202/items/165626/HMCSeptember2005.pdf
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-3/4 percent.
Output appeared poised to continue growing at a good pace before the tragic toll of Hurricane Katrina. The widespread devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation of economic activity, and the boost to energy prices imply that spending, production, and employment will be set back in the near term. In addition to elevating premiums for some energy products, the disruption to the production and refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility.
While these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near-term economic performance, it is the Committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent threat. Rather, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures. However, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained.
The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. Voting against was Mark W. Olson, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City.
and those Oct 2005 Gold Options expire on Sept 27, a short 6 trading days away... hard to imagine the commercials letting the $450, $460, much less $475 strike price options finish in the money without putting up some sort of battle...
Coxe - Basic Points
http://corporate.bmo.com/publications/basicPoints/default.asp?id=5554
Thanks, that Raymond James dump may well be what happened...
There are only 2 things we need worry about:
1) Tinka raising cash via PP anytime soon... But a 6 hole 1,000 meter drill program just ain't going to cost much and TK cash burn rate @ $150K per quarter is extraordinarily low. TK has $1.5M cash in the bank as of 6/30/05 which is sufficient.
2) Tinka not delivering good drill results. This we had better worry about!! Could go either way...
Continue to think TK is a good speculation, Luminaria appears to be a good prospect and if it weren't then why would they be acquiring more land... And these guys are an admirable bunch of cheapskates, $150K/quarter burn rate is cheap especially vs. potential reward if they get decent drill results... Comparing August to September news release shows no change, i.e. still expecting to start drilling in late September...
FS Junior Gold Index
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/FSJG/2005/0916.html
EDV.to Share Price to NAV
Share price increase from C$2.81 to C$3.13 in August=11.4%
NAV increase from C$4.69 to C$5.04 in August=7.5%
Discount decreased from 40.1% to 37.9% in August
http://www.endeavourminingcapital.com/nav.php
Estimates on September 2005 EDV performance:
Using S&P/TSX CAPPED GOLD INDEX (^SPTTGD) as a proxy for September performance, ^SPTTGD has increased from 199.3 as of Aug 31 to 225.92 as of 9/16/05 = 13.3%
Implied NAV of EDV as of 9/16/05 = C$5.04*1.133 = C$5.71
EDV.to share price has increased from C$3.13 to C$3.62 = 15.6%
Implied NAV discount to current share price = C$3.62 vs C$5.71 = 36.6%
If investor sentiment improves, believe the discount to NAV will continue to decrease to under 20%, as was the case from November 2003 to February 2004. Discount is currently trending down since May 2005 when it reached 44.6% and has historically trended down in 4Q.
Assuming C$5.71 is accurate NAV as of 9/16/05 and is maintained, then reduction of EDV discount alone implies target price of (C$5.71 less 20% discount)=C$4.57
the plot thickens on Silver ETF
Barclays Global Investors was still awaiting regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for its iShares Silver Trust, the asset management arm of Barclays Plc (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday, denying a report that its application was rejected.
A spokeswoman for the leading exchange-traded fund (ETF) provider said there had been no change to the status of the trust since an amended SEC filing was made earlier this month.
Barclays first filed in June for approval for the trust, to be backed by silver bullion stored in vaults in London.
The report on Thursday from an energy and commodities news wire service said the SEC turned down Barclays's application.
"The rumor is false," the spokeswoman said. "There is no news to report. Nothing has happened with the filing."
Barclays has said the timing of any possible approval of the silver trust would be up to the SEC. It took roughly a year to bring Barclays' gold ETF to market after its filing.
Barclays has been exploring a range of commodity products as investors were increasingly expressing interest in diversifying portfolios.
Politics- Walking around money, Lewites needs a bit
_________________________
Remember Daniel Ortega? He's back.
By Danna Harman | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
EL JICARAL, NICARAGUA - Little seems to have changed in this small rural village in the past two decades: women are down by the river doing their washing, cattle are roaming among the cacti, cowboys are drinking beer at the canteen, and Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega is in the town square, holding forth on the evils of capitalism and the United States.
"The US no longer rules Latin America!" Mr. Ortega thunders into the dark night. "The Yankees no longer rule Nicaragua!" The small crowd of farmers hoist their black and red Sandinista flags high and chant: "Daniel, Daniel!"
Fifteen years after unexpectedly being voted out of power, and with two unsuccessful runs for the presidency since, the iconic head of the Marxist Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) is back on the campaign trail. Ortega, a name many US officials had hoped to consign to the history books, has a fighting chance of returning to power.
Just staying in the running has looked doubtful for Ortega at times. His credibility has taken a beating since he signed a self-serving pact in 1999 with political rival and former President Arnoldo Aleman, now serving a 20-year sentence for embezzlement; his grown-up stepdaughter accused him in 1998 of abusing and raping her for years; and his former comrade-in-arms Herty Lewites is now running against him, mounting the first serious challenge to his leadership from within the Sandinista ranks.
But despite it all, Ortega says he is confident the November 2006 elections will put him back in the presidential palace. Even his critics say divisions within the ruling party, coupled with Ortega's grip on the electoral machine, make his resurrection possible. "Conditions are ripe for triumph," says Ortega in a late-night interview in Managua. "We will win, and we will wield great power here."
Washington, which backed the contra rebels in a civil war against Ortega's government of the 1980s until he lost the 1990 election, is none too pleased with the prospect. After toppling the Somoza family dictatorship in 1979, Ortega's Soviet-backed Sandinistas sparked widespread US intervention in Central America to counter what Washington saw as a communist threat in the region.
Roger Noriega, the Bush administration's outgoing top envoy to Latin America (who has called Ortega a "hoodlum"), told the Managua newspaper La Prensa last month that if the Sandinistas returned to power, Nicaragua would "sink like a stone and reach depths such as those of Cuba."
Ortega's democratic credentials "are very doubtful," sniffed US Ambassador Paul Trivelli, taking up his new post in the country this week.
"The triumph of the Sandinistas will raise the morale of Latin America," says Ortega, tapping into the Bush administration's worst fears of a growing left-leaning, populist, anti-American movement on the continent, led by Cuba's Fidel Castro and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. "Other countries will say - 'look, that small country got away with it - so can we!' We will spread the revolution." There is an alternative, he whispers, his voice hoarse from weeks of rallies, "to succumbing to the American Empire."
US interference could backfire
Carlos Fernando Chamorro, a former editor of the Sandinista newspaper Barricada, says too much US interference in the lead up to the election could actually help Ortega. The problem with Washington, he argues, is that they are stuck in the past. "The new right running Latin America policy are all leftovers from the '80s, who still behave like we are in the middle of the cold war," he says. "Every time Washington attacks Ortega, his supporters close ranks."
Otto Reich, a chief architect of President Ronald Reagan's policy against the Sandinistas and today a private consultant, shoots back: "Ortega is a communist, or whatever he calls himself," says Mr. Reich, in a phone interview from Washington. "If he wins, there will be no foreign investment and no US aid." Washington might see the world through '80s glasses, he concedes, but Ortega "...is stuck in the '60s and is acting like a Bolshevik."
Talking to Ortega, or hearing him on the campaign trail, is indeed more history lesson than interview, more nostalgia for the past than concrete plans for the future.
"[President] Bush is the Reagan of these times," Ortega tells a crowd gathered in the scorching sun of Santa Rosa del Pinon, a village in the mountains north of Leon - and immediately segues into tales of days gone by. "Yankee Reagan forbade peace," he rails. "He wanted to bring death and destruction to the region."
Adults cheer, children step forth to receive free FSLN bandannas, and old rebel anthems blare from the loudspeakers. Ortega's wife, revolutionary poet Rosario Murillo, thrusts her thin arms into the air, her bejeweled fingers clenched together in a tight fist.
Everywhere Ortega goes, people circle around him, hugging, kissing - and handing him handwritten notes. Most begin in the same way: "Please, Commandante ..." A young girl in El Jicaral has no school books. An old lady in Masaya needs arthritis medicine. A mother of five in Santa Rosa del Pinon wants shoes for her children - and a new house.
The notes get passed along to a burly man with a gold watch and thick mustache named Chico Lopez, or to Julio Paladino. Mr. Lopez is Ortega's financial officer in charge of "disbursements," Mr. Paladino, a handsome man with a big black bag, is the Sandinista leader's doctor, in charge of prescriptions. Some requests are handled on the spot - 300 cordoba ($17) for clothes here, 200 ($11) for medicine there. Larger requests - for scholarships, say, or operations - are dealt with later, back at headquarters in Managua.
Nicaragua remains one of the poorest countries in an impoverished region. The money disbursed, says Lopez, is all from donations. "We are the only ones who consistently help the people," says Paladino as he checks someone's distended stomach behind the stage. "This is what Daniel is about and that is whyhe is loved."
And yet for all these pronouncements, and US anxiety, analysts here say Ortega's political future is far from assured.
A poll done this month by B&A, a regional company based in Costa Rica, shows Ortega, with 20 percent of the vote, lagging behind both Eduardo Montealgre, a right-center candidate with 23 percent of the vote, and Mr. Lewites, with 35 percent.
Lewites, the former mayor of Managua, was expelled from the Sandinista Party when he announced his intention to run for president. Ortega canceled his challenger's permits to hold political rallies, forbade him to use Sandinista Party symbols, and accused him of corruption.
New regional mood of 'lite left'
Central America, unlike South America, is actually moving away from left-wing anti-Americanism, says Victor Borge, director of B&A. Upcoming elections in El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Honduras are all expected to be won by moderates, he says. "If Ortega manages to come to power in 2006," he adds, "...it would indeed symbolically be a big deal and might motivate other leftists. But that does not seem in tune with the mood in the region."
Lewites calls the new mood "lite left," and it is one he subscribes to. Lewites says he does not share Ortega's singleminded obsession with the US - but neither is he running to Washington for validation. "I think we should maintain good relations with the US. We need each other," he says. "I will be respectful, but firm."
If elections are fairly run, says Lewites, he is confident of victory. But will they be fair? "Of course not," he responds. Thanks to his pact with [former president] Aleman, Ortega all but controls the parliament, the supreme court, and the electoral commission, he adds.
Ortega, too, says is worried about cheating in the elections - but a different kind. "Elections in Nicaragua are not normal elections - they are a confrontation between the US and the Sandinista front," he says, concluding the interview and heading into a midnight meeting. "The US will do anything to decimate us," he says. "But we are here."
Sold SLW at US$4.01
Thanks for your comments... This news made me think twice about retaining SLW:
"London (Platts)--15Sep2005
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has turned down Barclay's Global Investors application to establish a silver electronic trading fund platform, sources in the market told Platts Thursday. Barclays already have an ETF for gold.
A well-respected industry source said Thursday that there was "speculation in the market that Barclay's application for a silver ETF has been refused by the SEC." A second source told Platts that Barclays had filed the application with the SEC a couple of weeks ago. "I would be very surprised if it had been approved, another UK-based market source, unwilling to elaborate on his statement."