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Re: Frank Pembleton post# 14336

Monday, 10/10/2005 10:01:41 AM

Monday, October 10, 2005 10:01:41 AM

Post# of 19037
SA Rand

"One point to note is that on Thursday this week, South Africa’s Reserve Bank will announce its decision on what to do with interest rates. Although this time, higher inflation, at about 4.8% compared to 3.7% last August, may prevent another cut...

Traders said the unit was likely to remain range-bound between 6.47 and 6.57 versus the greenback as local markets wait for the outcome of the central bank's two-day policy meeting on Thursday, expected to leave interest rates on hold.

"We expect the bank to leave rates unchanged but there will be a hawkish tone to the commentary which should give a bit of support to the rand," a local dealer said.

"We are not looking at cuts any more, we are looking at hikes next year. I also think the market is a bit long of dollars, gold prices are supporting it and there's a bit of squaring up ahead of Thursday."

A Reuters poll showed that 19 out of 20 economists expect the Reserve Bank to leave its key repo rate steady at 7 percent, with 12 predicting a hike next year and three looking for another reduction.

The rand has been undermined in the past week by a negative shift in sentiment towards emerging markets and an abrupt retreat in the euro, the currency of South Africa's main trade partner which it often tracks.

But it got a boost on Monday from the price of gold, which hovered near an 18-year peak above $474 an ounce, on continued support from global inflation worries. South Africa is the world's main gold producer."

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