Mostly: Classical

[amarksp]

Palladium, you are likely right, everyone else is bearish on Palladium but you...?
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http://www.gfmsanalytics.com/Publications%20Samples/Precious%20Metals%20Market%20Briefing%20-%20Octo....

Oct 2005
Palladium’s fundamentals point, largely, to sideways trading and that is more or less what the market has been doing for a considerable period, with trading bounded largely by the $180 and $200 levels.

This was broadly true also in September, with persistent tests of support at $180 holding good on the back of steady industrial interest. Although there are still plenty of above-ground inventories (on NYMEX alone, for example, they amount to five weeks’ global demand), it is believed that the inventory in the North American automotive industry has been more or less worked off and this is giving the market some support.

As a consequence, and fuelled to some extent by the bullish news covered above (with the exception of the possibility of diesel penetration in the US), Japanese investment buying appeared in size in the third week of the month and prompted a rapid jump with prices moving as much as $16 in one day to reach $202. Although prices have subsequently come down in US dollar terms, they appear to have changed range in yen terms, with support now emerging at ¥690/g - although whether this can be sustained must also be open to question.

The liquidation that developed following this rally saw prices down to $190, where industrial interest has appeared, so the entry point for this buying has, at least, risen by $10 over the course of the month. This was enough to prompt further fund interest, but this market has to be viewed with caution given that it remains in a small surplus and one that may well increase next year as diesel continues its push for market share and platinum producers bring on new projects towards the end of next year.
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"Palladium - Sept 05
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/FortisMetalsMonthlySep05.pdf
News
• Aug 10th: North American Palladium reported for Q2 2005 (to June 30th) a 37% decline in palladium production compared to the same period last year, with a net loss of more than $15.22m vs. net profits of more than $2.83m during the same period last year.
Analysis
• Investors ebbing away?
Palladium remained on the sidelines in August, the London pm fix ranging across a narrow $11 spectrum, from its early high, of $193/oz on the 3rd to a low of $182/oz, on several days through the month. This weakness reflected the trading position on Nymex, where there was a fairly substantial sell-off during August (a decline of 212,800 ozs to 247,900 ozs in the large net longs over the month, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission) managed to pull the price down. There are still plenty of net longs out there, to the tune globally of 570,021 ozs at the latest count, but this is the lowest since December 2003 by our estimations. Palladium may not swiftly be headed below $170/oz - but $250/oz is increasingly a fantasy.

Stillwater Mining president and chief executive, Frank McAllister, said he believed the automotive industry has depleted its palladium stockpile, and pointed to the fact that the US Defence Department is continuing to sell its palladium stockpile. He said he believes Russia still has a significant inventory, and added that Stillwater will use up its own stockpile during Q1 2006.
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