ascendancy of Keynesian

Yes, the Keynesian's are just a few months away from a visit from Adam's invisible hand...

hmmmm, ihub did not like the formatting. left out the k

here it is again with spaces

a m a r k $ p

I am over at SI mostly, under amark$p.

Via peoplemarks, I follow certain posters, so post at multiple boards, but have been hanging out at The Ego Forum lately.

Busy with final deadline 2010 tax returns due 10/15/11.

Follow Felix Zulauf and Jim Rickards in regard to your "demise of capitalism" comment, although it is better termed as the ascendancy of Keynesian.

Have been buying physical platinum here lately as S Africa and Zimbabwe (80% of production) are failed states just waiting to happen.

orangekick, appears you have migrated from cycling to Dutch Football...??

Where is that masked man...

Merry Christas and Happy New Year to Kastel & Frank...

What, no posts on the Tour de France...?

Happy new year to this quiet board..., pending the return of that that lover of torque...

You still around Frank...?

This bicyling in Edinburg, Scotland should interest you....

more likely use for me would be to power my air conditioner this summer...

martin m presentation 4/29/09

http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/denvergold/042809/index.php?mode=1&sel_date=2

martin m

http://www.victoradair.com/pdf/GM20090424.pdf

I hear you... Finally finished with tax season and reading more on deflation. The jury is still out, but I have a much greater respect now for deflation and trying to find safe banks for keeping cash. Too big to fail likely not to last.

I am beginning to believe that people such as Hugh Hendry, Mish, and others may well be right. Namely, quantitative easing has never worked throughout history as Hendry states.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/fiat-world-mathematical-model.html

"Since the 1870s, three extended deflations have occurred--two in the U.S. from 1874-94 and from 1928 to 1941, and one in Japan from 1988 to 2008. All these deflations occurred in the aftermath of an extended period of "extreme over indebtedness," a term originally used by Irving Fisher in his famous 1933 article, "The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions." Fisher argued that debt deflation controlled all, or nearly all, other economic variables."

In short, I think quitting is the better part of valor for the next few months...

Good luck Frank!

Frank: you are far too pessimistic...
"Anyway, my return has something to do with seeing the end of capitalism. I want to experience the final trade--short of course, before they finally pull the plug on the NYSE."

there is a glimmer of hope I got out of watching the NatGeo HD channel's Known Universe tonight. we could get a massive asteroid strike the earth first so we would not have to watch them actually pull the plug...

the moose knows
http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html

these eastern europe articles were the most interesting news this weekend. appears buying gold still viable...

____________________

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Saturday, February 14, 2009

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/462352...

The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached an acute danger point.

If mishandled by the world policy establishment, this debacle is big enough to shatter the fragile banking systems of Western Europe and set off Round 2 of our financial Gotterdammerung.

Austria's finance minister Josef Proll made frantic efforts last week to put together a E150 billion rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent E230 billion to the region, equal to 70 percent of Austria's GDP.

"A failure rate of 10 percent would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10 percent and may reach 20 percent. The Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a "monetary Stalingrad" in the East.

Mr Proll tried to drum up support for his rescue package from EU finance ministers in Brussels last week. The idea was scotched by Germany's Peer Steinbruck. Not our problem, he said. We'll see about that.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay -- or roll over -– $400 billion this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Not even Russia can easily cover the $500 billion dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36 percent of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.

"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.

In Poland 60 percent of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly -- by lenders and borrowers -- it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74 percent of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.

They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50 percent more leveraged (IMF data).

Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51 percent in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.

Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

Under a "Taylor Rule" analysis, the European Central Bank already needs to cut rates to zero and then purchase bonds and Pfandbriefe on a huge scale. It is constrained by geopolitics -- a German-Dutch veto -- and the Maastricht Treaty.

But I digress. It is East Europe that is blowing up right now. Erik Berglof, EBRD's chief economist, told me the region may need E400 billion in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system.

Europe's governments are making matters worse. Some are pressuring their banks to pull back, undercutting subsidiaries in East Europe. Athens has ordered Greek banks to pull out of the Balkans.

The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan -- and Turkey next -- and is fast exhausting its own $200 billion (E155 billion) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.

Its $16 billion rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country -- facing a 12 percent contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices -- is hurtling toward default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen, and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6 billion. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5 percent in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.

"This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s," said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.

"There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU."

Europe is already in deeper trouble than the ECB or EU leaders ever expected. Germany contracted at an annual rate of 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9 percent before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.

The implications are obvious. Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU "union bonds" should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy's public debt (hitting 112 percent of GDP next year, just revised up from 101 percent -- big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism.

So we watch and wait as the lethal brush fires move closer.

If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?
______

I repeat, BUY GOLD and silver. If this is even half true, also consider buying guns...

Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion @ 10x Leverage = $17 Trillion

________________

European Bank Losses Dwarf Those in the US
In a few paragraphs I am going to put up a chart from Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor on the size of US bank losses, and in a few pages I'll comment on the Geithner "plan" for rescuing US banks. We have indeed dug ourselves a very deep hole here in the US.

But European banks may be in far worse shape. Bruno Waterfield of the London Daily Telegraph reports to have seen an eyes-only document prepared by the European Commission for the finance ministers of the various EU member countries. The problem revealed in the report is an estimated write-down by European banks in the range of 16 trillion pounds, or about $25 trillion dollars! The concern is that bailing out the various national banks for such an unbelievable amount would push the cost of government borrowing to much higher levels than we see today.

As my kids would say, "Really, Dad, you think so?" Europe is somewhat larger than the US, so think what my gold-bug friends would say if the US decided to borrow $25 trillion to bail out US banks. The dollar would be crucified! The euro is going to get a lot weaker if bank problems are even half of what the report says they are. The British pound sterling is already off almost 30% and, depending on what the real damage is to their banking system, it could get worse.

Waterfield reports, "National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors -- particularly those who lend money to European governments -- have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.

"The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate 'toxic' bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries."

Part of the problem is that European banks were far more highly leveraged than US banks. Some banks were reportedly leveraged 50:1. And they lent money to Eastern European projects and businesses which are now facing severe financial strain and plummeting local currencies.

Let that number rattle around in your head for a moment: $25 trillion. Even $5 trillion would be daunting. But the problem is that Europe does not have a central bank that can step in and selectively save banks from one country without taking on all euro zone member-country banks. Yet, as noted above, some countries may not have the wherewithal to save their own banks. It is reported that some Austrian banks are hoping that Germany will step in and help them. Given Germany's problems, they may have a long wait.

martin m

http://www.victoradair.com/pdf/GM20090130.pdf

Martin M

http://www.miningmx.com/events/indaba_2009/murenbeeld-reckons-gold-will-reach-$2,300.htm

Murenbeeld reckons gold will reach $2,300
Brendan Ryan
Posted: Wed, 11 Feb 2009
[miningmx.com] -- THE GOLD price should average $945/oz during 2009 but rise to $995/oz by the end of the year and average $1,050/oz during 2010.

Those are the latest predictions made by gold “guru” Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist for Dundee Wealth Economics, speaking at the Mining Indaba being held in Cape Town.

But Murenbeeld added he believed gold would eventually reach $2,300/oz although he did not put a timeframe on this prediction.

The price level of $2,300/oz holds considerable significance for gold investors and analysts because it represents the current, inflation-adjusted value of the price of $850/oz that gold reached early in 1980.

Interviewed after his presentation Murenbeeld said, “Over the long cycle gold will take out $2,300/oz but that could take up to five years before it happens.”

Murenbeeld said he believed the gold price had held up remarkably well against the impact of the global financial crisis that erupted last year.

“Gold has been the best asset to be in. It has risen to new highs in almost every currency and I have been surprised at how well ETF (exchange traded fund) investment in gold held up last year, “ he commented.

He added, “Recessions are bad for everything including gold. You have to remember that gold represents liquidity of last resort which means that sometimes people sell the stuff.

“It’s what people do to get out of recessions that is good for gold. The metal survived the 2001 recession well because (former Federal Reserve Bank chairman) Alan Greenspan was very quick on the reflation side.”

Murenbeeld highlighted the current reflationary measures being taken by the United States and other major economies and commented, “global money and fiscal reflation will remain necessary for years to come even after the current global financial crisis.

“That’s because of the social promises made by governments to the ‘baby boomer’ generation which is about to retire. Printing money is good for gold and governments’ choices for debt reduction are limited. “

Turning to the role of the world’s central banks – which at times have been heavy sellers of gold – Murenbeeld commented, “I sense central bank attitudes to gold are changing and they no longer view it as inherited nuclear waste.

“I feel central banks are getting religion again and I don’t think they will be as negative on gold as they have been in the past.”

Murenbeeld concluded, “we are in an uptrend. I am absolutely convinced of that but developments might not take place as fast as you might want.

“It is normal in a cyclical, long-term uptrend that you could have one or even two years of counter-trend movements. It could take a while before the previous peak gold price of $1,030/oz gets taken out.”

IMF may no longer need to sell its gold
The IMF does well in difficult times for the global economy as its income to meet its internal budgets arises from loans to nations in economic difficulties. In such times IMF loans increase, as does its income, which could mean there is not such a pressing need for the Fund to sell its gold says London's VM Group.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Feb 2009

LONDON -

Some two years ago the gold price was hit, albeit temporarily, by the announcement that the International Monetary Fund would sell 403 tonnes of gold as the basis of an endowment, the interest on which would be used to help defray the shortfall in the IMF budget. Indeed, at the time the Fund was suffering as its loan book was shrinking, eventually falling to SDR5.8bn at the end of the first quarter of 2008. The IMF does well when the world economy does badly, but conversely does badly when the world economy does well and at that time the global economy seemed to be riding high.

The reason the IMF does badly when the world economy does well is a simple one. The Fund relies on income from the loans it puts out to countries in economic difficulties for its day to day running expenses. When the Global economy is strong, countries can repay these loans and there are few takers for new ones, so income shrinks. After several years of strong global growth the Fund's loan book had shrunk - hence the need for the new source of funding recommended by the IMF's Committee of Eminent Persons to Study Sustainable Long Term Financing of IMF Running Costs, chaired by Sir Andrew Crockett, former head of The Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This is the Committee which recommended the sale of IMF gold reserves, the interest on the revenue from which could be used to plug the Fund's own internal budget deficit.

But, since the middle of last year the global economy has been in virtual freefall and the IMF has again been called upon by a number of countries to help prop up their economies with major loans. From the low of SDR5.8bn noted above, at the latest count the IMF now has loans out totalling $17.8 bn - and this figure is much more likely to rise than fall for the foreseeable future. Indeed it may well double or more.

In a briefing to clients from London's VM Group, the Group's analysts suggest that, with the increase in income currently being generated, the IMF no longer has a short term need to boost its income in other forms - such as with interest from the proceeds of a gold sales programme - and there will be certainly less urgency to implement such a programme.

Notwithstanding the IMF's improved internal funding circumstances the VM Group believes though, that "the Fund would still like to sell, largely because the Crockett Committee pinpointed some structural problems in the way the IMF financed itself. The Committee criticised the IMF's funding strategy, not just on the ground that it no longer covered its expenditure, but because it was too concentrated, wasn't related to its expenditure (in that other functions were covered by unrelated interest income), and - crucially - that it lacked predictability, soaring in bad times and falling in good times."

But - and the VM group reckons this is an important ‘but' - "..the Fund is not the only interested party in the question of IMF gold sales. It was always considered the US's share of IMF votes, has an effective veto. In the past, Congress has been against gold sales, not just because of the impact on the gold price (and gold-mining in the US and elsewhere), something the Committee was at pains to say would be minimised, but also through general unease about funding commitments to international financial institutions. Some US legislators will certainly pose the question .... now that the IMF's income is much better, does it really need to sell any gold? Moreover, the Fund might possibly have too much money after the financing reforms, if its loans were to continue to increase."

This is obviously a speculative assessment, but not one without merit. A major improvement in IMF finances may well lead to a ‘no sale' directive by the US Congress given that there will likely be many in the legislature uncertain of the impact of such sales on an already very fragile economic system. Leave well alone may be their feeling if the IMF is seen to be fully self funding again.

Satyajit Das
Oils Ain’t Grains – The Outlook for Commodities
Feb 9, 2009

Laws of Financial Gravity

Commodities posted their worst performance on record in 2008. Commentary on commodity markets reflects Mark Twain’s remark that: "I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts".

Unlike financial assets, commodities, for the most part, are subject to the laws of economic gravity – supply and demand. Individual commodities are also highly idiosyncratic – you can’t drink oil, nor can you run your car on gold though they seem to go quite well on corn tortillas!


The key to commodities is demand. Higher prices, for example in oil, led to a sharp reduction in demand as people lowered consumption or used substitutes. Falling prices shift this balance, especially in energy importers such as China, Japan and India.

It is not clear how much lower global growth is impounded in commodity prices. The fall-off in exports in Asian countries and the collapse in freight rates is especially worrying. Inevitable protectionism (buy "local" and currency "manipulation" to gain export competitiveness) is also a concern.

Ultimately, commodity prices will depend on recovery in growth, consumption, housing markets, durable goods (especially motor cars) and stability in financial markets and resumption of more normal financing activity. None of this seems likely in the short term.

A key dynamic is whether deflationary pressures (falling prices) emerge. In a deflationary environment, commodities will be hit hard as demand falls further. The lack of income and high real rates of interest will affect prices. In contrast, inflation would be supportive of prices as investors switch from monetary to real assets. Despite strenuous rhetoric and monetary actions by central banks, it is not clear whether debt deflation can be avoided.

Aberrant Tendencies

Short-term factors also affect the outlook. Falling prices have placed enormous pressures on companies and state treasuries dependent on resource based revenues.

Companies with large debt service commitments are being forced to produce at uneconomic prices simply to generate cash flow. Some oil exporters are producing below operating cost to maintain revenues to finance ambitious spending plans conceived in more prosperous times. This overproduction distorts prices.

There are growing supply constraints in some markets. Junior miners are unable to bring resource properties into production because of financing pressures. New investment and expansion has been deferred or abandoned. These bottlenecks may cause short-term supply disruptions creating significant volatility in prices.

A known unknown is the performance of the US dollar. There is a complex and unstable relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. An IMF study noted that a 1% increase in the value of the dollar results in a decrease in oil and gold prices of greater than 1%. This means the elasticity is around 1. It appears to be higher for gold than oil prices. Continued volatility in currency markets, reflecting pressures as sovereigns attempt to finance their budget and financial system bailout requirements, will be mirrored in commodity prices.

The impact of lower shipping costs on individual commodities is also a factor. At the height of the commodity boom, one apocryphal story told of containers shipping goods to America being scrapped upon arrival in the US. This reflected the lack of US-China traffic and the cost of shipping back the containers. Shipping resources that were previously uneconomic to ship, for example, bulky items with low price to volume ratios such as cement, are now tradable reflecting the collapse of freight rates. This means that local pricing variations and protected niches may be affected.

Individuals All!

Oil prices may have further downside, in the short run, reflecting continued reduction in demand as growth slows. Production cuts by OPEC may not be effective as revenue strapped sovereign producers adjust volumes to generate cash flow. Ultimately, the laws of supply and demand, production costs and a finite, constrained resource will support the price.

The outlook for alternative energies is less sanguine. Most alternatives require high oil prices to be economic. Support for alternative cleaner energy is likely to wane as the GFC forces governments to defer climate change initiatives in the face of harsh economic conditions.

The dislocation in financial markets has benefited gold. The gold price has performed well reflecting increasing suspicion about "paper" money and lower interest rates. Governments continue to attempt to reflate domestic economies by traditional Keynesian spending, increasing concern about possible inflation providing support for gold. There is a fear of a return to a gold standard leading to hoarding of gold stock. Emerging market demand for gold, a traditional store of purchasing power, may be fuelled by the threat of increased social unrest.

Other precious metals, platinum, palladium and silver, are likely to be affected by decreased demand, especially the problems in the automobile sector globally.

Industrial metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc and tin) and bulk commodities (iron ore and coking coal) have been a major proxy for global economic growth, particularly demand from a rapidly industrialising and urbanising China and India. Slower growth and problems related to inventories and oversupply may mean a continuation of weakness.

The performance of agricultural prices is puzzling. After falling in line with commodities generally throughout 2008, in December agricultural products decoupled from other assets. For example, some grains rose sharply in prices by 10% to 20%.

Prices (adjusted for inflation) are around 40% below long run average prices. Grain inventory levels are low – around 2 months of global demand. Problems affecting financing of crops and trade, low prices and difficulty of hedging (increased in margins and hedging costs) have meant that plantings have been low. Major seed producers report a sharp decline in sales. The increased problems of food production from climate change also means the risk of supply disruption cannot be discounted.

Historically, agricultural products have performed well in economic recessions. Tightening supply, risk of supply shocks and the appeal of a recession resistance asset may underpin prices in relative terms.

Agricultural products that have been linked to oil prices (such as corn, palm oil, soybeans and rapeseed) will be dependent on the broader performance of energy prices.

Backwards and Forwards

The current realignment affects financial investments in commodities. The case for commodities as a separate investment asset class has been undermined. Commodities have proved to be highly correlated to other financial assets. The volatility of commodity prices, traditionally high, has proved to be extreme.

One significant change has been the shift in the relationship between spot (immediate) commodity prices and forward (or future) prices. Historically, commodity prices for some commodities, especially non-financial commodities like gold, have exhibited ‘backwardation’; that is, forward prices have traded below spot prices. This allowed investors to earn the ‘roll’; that is, they bought forward and then sold the commodity to accrue ‘the convenience yield’ as the contract shortened in maturity. This income, first explained by Keynes, has been a significant source of gain for financial investors.

As commodity prices fall as a result of reduced demand, the ‘backwardation’ changes into ‘contango’; that is, forward prices are above spot prices. The contango reflects the cost of holding the physical commodity adjusted for holding costs (storage, insurance, interest rates etc). Weak demand exacerbates the contango as excess supply goes into storage. Financial investors cannot benefit from the convenience yield reducing one of the sources of return. The long-term effect of these dislocations on financial investment in commodity markets is unknown.

Bridges to Nowhere & Velocity of Pigs

During commodity booms excesses abound. Oil rich countries enjoying rapid growth in commodity revenues embarked on grand and expensive projects. For example, in this cycle, Dubai undertook an ambitious expansion program based on real estate, luxury hotels, airlines, financial services and English premier league soccer clubs.

The excesses are notable. The recently opened Atlantis Hotel is at the end of the first (and so far only completed) Dubai Palm, a piece of reclaimed land designed to resemble a palm tree. The Atlantis has its own theme park next door, every shop and restaurant conceivable and a mammoth aquarium (featuring 65,000 marine animals). The Palazzo Versace hotel, currently under construction, features a beach with artificially cooled sand to save guests from the hot sand as they walk from water to the hotel.

The most emblematic project of this cycle is a project proposed by Tarek bin Laden, one of Osama bin Laden’s many half-brothers. The project entails twin cities on either side of the Bab al-Mandib (Gate of Tears) strait at the mouth of the Red Sea linked by a 29 km bridge across the strait. The project cost was estimated at $200 billion.

Recently an acquaintance in financial markets announced his retirement to a life of rustic simplicity in Umbria, Italy. He had acquired a farm and was restoring it with the help of local ‘serfs’ (his word not mine!). The farm would be self sufficient producing essentials of life - wheat, milk, wine and meat. The plan was to avoid the coming financial Armageddon in financial markets and the money economy.

The newly minted farmer was especially excited by the farm’s black pigs that reproduce three times each year. He referred to this as the ‘velocity’ of the pig population. The porcine velocity is much greater, ironically, than the current velocity of money in financial markets as the recession sets in and the implosion of the financial system becomes institutionalised.

Grandiose plans tend to be launched towards the end of the boom cycle. Pigs and food may be well be where the smart money heads in these troubled times.

Fundamental demand for food and energy may emerge as key investment drivers – everybody needs to eat and we are still a fossil fuel driven society.

© 2009 Satyajit Das

Satyajit Das is a risk consultant and author of a number of key reference works on derivatives and Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives (2006, FT-Prentice Hall).

martin m

http://www.victoradair.com/pdf/GM20090123.pdf

Any opinion on DBA/RJA...?

Henan warns against severe droughts
Henan, China's major grain producer, issued a red alert for drought Thursday. The provincial meteorological bureau said the drought is the worst since 1951.

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-01-31 10:38

China's largest crop producing province Henan Thursday issued the highest-level warning against continuing droughts in the coming week, the province's first such warning since June of 2007 when the warning system was established.

The provincial meteorological bureau of Henan said the province had received an average rainfall of 10.5 millimeters since November 2008, almost 80 percent less than in the same period of previous years.

The central Henan Province has a population of nearly 100 million, the largest in China. It has been the largest crop producing province for eight years.

The draught has affected about 63 percent of the province's growing wheat and is likely to expand for the next week, the provincial meteorological bureau said.

_________________
Severe drought in northern China has affected about 9.67 million hectares of crops, 2.7 million hectares more than the same period last winter, according to the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

Drought conditions have left 3.7 million people and 1.85 million livestock with no access to drinking water, according to sources in the office.

The agency has sent four relief teams to eight of the worst-hit crop-producing provinces, including Hebei, Shaanxi, Anhui and Jiangsu, to instruct farmers and local administrators on relief work.

E Jingping, secretary-general of the office, said Sunday at a working conference that local relief teams should fully assess the situation and work out solutions tailored for the specific conditions in their areas.

"The water resources allocation should be integrated to ensure equitable distribution," he was quoted as saying by Xinhua News Agency.

"Efforts should be made to ensure that all residents had enough drinking water and all efforts were to be made to expand the irrigation area," E added.

The Ministry of Finance has allocated 100 million yuan ($14.6 million) of emergency funding to help farmers fight the drought.

E Jingping also said that about 1.38 billion yuan had been used to fund relief work since the end of December. Some five million hectares of farmland has been irrigated, and drinking water shortages were eased for about 500,000 people and 280,000 livestock.

Local finance and water resource departments have allocated 509 million yuan for drought-relief efforts since December, and nearly 3.3 million hectares of wheat cropland have got sufficient water for irrigation by Sunday.

Fourteen supervision groups arrived at the drought-hit areas over the weekend as part of the relief campaign.

Henan Daily reported yesterday that the drought, which began in November, is the most severe since 1951.

Without rainfall for 105 days, more than 2.8 million hectares of wheat cropland, or 63 percent of the total wheat crop, is threatened.

Weather forecasts predict that rainfall will remain low this month.

Severe drought is also affecting 1.7 million hectares of farmland in Shandong province.

FWIW, I own U.to

uranium price has been ratcheting down a bit these last few weeks (from $55 to $51)

http://www.energystox.com/charts/image-precious.asp?mode=90%2Dday&focus=262144&w=180&h=114

I see the annotated chart on this referenced post...

China: follow the electricity consumption..., this is what Hendry suggested...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/115318-forecasting-the-global-impact-of-this-crisis

I really like Hugh Hendry, are you familiar with him?

I watched and taped this show on CNBC Europe on 1/12/09. Hendry is quite bearish on most everything, including China (thinks China has a 50:50 chance of having negative GDP this year). Here is a 9 minute clip from this 1 hour segment.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28616631 (video 2/3's down the page)

yes. Celente does offer an out of the box perspective...

have you considered goldmoney.com
http://www.goldmoney.com/en/why-goldmoney.php

"track who owns gold here in Canada, to buy it you need to fill out the paper work and they take you SIN too...and then there's always the threat that the government will make it illegal to own"

goldmoney is just like a bank account, and you do have to give your SS# and everything else just like you would with a bank account. but I believe Turk has set this up whereby it will be more difficult to confiscate, and whereby you receive fair value if confiscated...

martin m

http://www.victoradair.com/pdf/GM20090109.pdf

well, I have stayed away from oil stocks as you suggested...

but I am getting pretty close to pulling the trigger, if oil breaks $30-$35, I will be buying RJN (Rogers Energy ETN). I like oil much better than the US$. Have already purchased RJA (Rogers Agricultural ETN) for the same reason. I trust cash and gold/silver the most, especially in a safe, and then the Rogers RJA.

Oil & Gas will soon be a buy (i.e. the physical commodity), as long as drill rigs continue to fall. Demand may continue to fall BUT pretty soon the decline in Supply will be steeper than the fall in demand..., IMO.

Being an owner of several oil & gas royalty and working interest properties, I can tell you that the 1st year decline rates for new wells is 40% with the fracing technology. Wells that were drilled 5 years ago are now less than 10% of original production. Within 2 years maximum, price of oil will be rising again unless we are living in caves and walking to work...

ouch:
"$350 gold, $20 oil -- is my state of mind -- could even go lower."

do not know of any producers that will still be in business at those prices...

cyclepro

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm

thanks Frank. I rarely post on Ihub anymore and do not check for messages over here very often, am now over at siliconinvestor primarily. Here's my link:
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/profile.aspx?userid=9090707

the mostlygold board
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=57653

have been buying physical silver and gold here lately... next purchase will probably be some platinum if it gets hammered a bit more...

out of curiousity, assuming you are in cash, who are you trusting to hold it these days...? bank CD's, your brokerage money market, or US/Canada treasuries...?

hello Frank, just back from 12 day vacation...

let me know when the market is safe...

and Merry Christmas to you Frank!

here are a few Gold articles of interest...

Martin M

http://www.victoradair.com/pdf/GM20081212.pdf

"WRT backwardation, note that in the currency world high yielding currencies are always in backwardation against low yielding currencies – and there is the theory of interest rate parity to argue that it should be so. Ergo, when gold interest rates are higher than $ interest rates, gold will be in backwardation"

more reasoned articles on gold backwardation that merit your attention:

http://www.acting-man.com/2008/12/some-thoughts-on-recent-backwardation.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/06/why-does-fiat-money-seemingly-work.html

This article is also worthwhile:

http://newsmine.org/dbsrv/cabal-elite/international-banking/gold-scam/BehaviorofGold.pdf

thanks. I am more confident on the C$, surprised to see him think C$ exchange rate can move lower to US$.91

looks like MFN getting the ejido problem resolved without having to renegotiate the agreement

http://64.233.179.104/translate_c?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.vozenred.com/not_detalle.php%3Fid_n%3D17525&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2522Minera%2BDolores%2522%2Bsite:www.vozenred.com/%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26rls%3DGGLG,GGLG:2006-17,GGLG:en%26sa%3DN%26as_qdr%3Dall&usg=ALkJrhiVt91vCz_oU_PRcdKWOIuctLJprQ

NYMEX gold/oil real time quotes

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

NYMEX gold/oil real time quotes

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

martin m
http://www.murenbeeld.com/Downloads/Murenbeeld-CNBC.wmv

Martin M
http://www.murenbeeld.com/Downloads/Murenbeeld-CNBC.wmv