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Interesting comment/trend: $UAL CEO: "There has been a permanent structural change in leisure demand because of the flexibility that hybrid work allows. With hybrid work, every weekend could be a holiday weekend. That’s why September, a normally off-peak month was the third strongest month in our history"
back in the regular market... One of the whippiest FOMC days. Travel names getting crushed on recession fears... Powell more or less acknowledged "below trend growth for 2 years" $AAL $DAL $UAL $JBLU $SAVE
maybe brings some focus to this area: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/explosion-rocks-bp-refinery-ohio
good story... you need the "h" in the link to get you there.
https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Nixon-refinery-benefits-from-Eagle-Ford-crude-4221647.php
Debt thoughts...
I had gotten into a small cap oil and gas awhile back $GTE, partly because I knew they were paying off debt. Nothing earth-shattering here, but an interesting marker, here is the CEO:
Commenting on the beat, Gary Guidry, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra, explained, “In this high oil price environment and with our high-quality asset base, we were able to reduce net debt by $298 million or 38% over the past two years…As we look forward to the third quarter of 2022, we are excited about spudding exploration wells in Colombia and Ecuador and increasing production in our core assets.”
I find it interesting that there was not a mega, wholesale payback on debt, although a nice chunk, and that they put it in a two-year timeframe.
If BDCO were to announce a simple working attitude towards the debt and getting it down, I think it would do wonders - it wouldn't even have to approach the mythical, frothy "they could pay EVERYTHING" off this quarter!!!" Also...my cynical self, mixed with my take on what I perceive to be their good 'ole boy actions makes me think they sometimes ask themselves... "Well, why should we pay off all this debt - it's OPM, the interest rate is lower than if we had to borrow again or anytime soon, maybe we work off a little, but let's not get crazy, boys."
Maybe the above just allows me to maintain some patience.
I'm at 5,000 shares now.
Just to add... I had previously said that I thought the true mover of the stock would be communication regarding their debt. As far as know, no communications have come forth. This is a good case of what is known is baked in and "not worth knowing." It's dandy that the profits are so great, that they are flush with cash... but again, as noted, I take them to be very old school and circumspect. Maybe it's this lack of communication that makes me think they are simply satisfied with the status quo. So until the status quo needle moves, I'm sitting on my hands. If I were to dwell on the above I'd be a seller, so I try to just keep this parked off to the side - I guess that leaves me neutral. Any other speculations are just Hope - a quality I strive to avoid in trades.
I think the stock would advance with more ease on company comments regarding debt retirement.
Actually like the safety comments - money (and time) well spent there.
My take on them is they don't think much of wall street, share prices etc, except perhaps as a piggy bank. They seem very old school to me, and I keep my expectations low.
I think I wait more for an outside influence than anything internal from them, but as long as they are not screwing things up, I can park some money here.
Yes, for $75 million, they bought a refinery from Shell - https://www.yahoo.com/video/shell-plc-shel-sells-mobile-150303919.html
The 91,000 barrel-per-day Mobile refinery is a strategically located asset, one capable of sourcing a flexible mix of cost-advantaged light-sweet domestic and international feedstocks. The Mobile refinery has the optionality to run as a stand-alone refinery and is also capable of producing base oils and chemicals feedstock. Approximately 70% of the refinery's current annual production is distillate, gasoline and jet fuel, with the remainder being vacuum gas oil, LPG and other products.
Another refiner I have owned and regularly follow is Vertex Energy, $VTNR. They are in the ballpark of costs etc, and came to be through an interesting set of acquisitions. They enjoyed a substantial run-up which has been largely given back. 2nd Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected 08/09/2022 before market open. With 5 analysts covering VTNR, the consensus EPS estimate is $1.24, and the high and low estimates are $1.74 and $0.98. Their 1st quarter report is here: https://www.accesswire.com/700704/press-release-distribution
From what I can tell $BDCO is a near cousin, and if they can achieve those valuations... we could get there too.
this is a day when the low volume actually favors the stock, as most other "regularly trade" oil type stocks are in the midst of a 20% correction... I guess we already had that lol.
btw, if of interest, I had searched out the OTC designation for the stock and this is a link to the OTCQX rules that govern the company on that exchange. I found it useful as a reference to understand notions of "the company should report" this or that, and knowing what they are bound to do or otherwise. Here: https://www.otcmarkets.com/files/OTCQX_Rules_for_International_Companies.pdf
My holdings are increased to 5,000 shares.
I have 4500. I just buy small lots down on the bid, the MM always descends to that and improves my average each time.
I'm wondering if they aren't chasing a new military jet fuel contract? Just seems that if you know the basic govt. route to get there, you would keep your irons in the fire for the next one... and they should be on a list to receive bid notices... and it would seem to have basic political support to "increase production"
In the glass half full... the volume may be low, but as I sit here with my bid at 1.64, you can tell there are no sellers either. .04 cent spread... doubt I'd find a seller in the next two cents, but might try to get under the ask before the end of the day.
Q1 2020 earnings were announced at 9AM prior to market open and subsequent conference call.
TOMI will hold its second quarter 2020 financial results conference call on Thursday, August 13th at 1:30 p.m PT, 4:30 p.m. ET.
To listen to the call, please dial 844-369-8770 or 862-298-0840. To listen to the webcast or view the press release, please visit the Investor Relations section of the TOMI website at: http://investor.tomimist.com/webcasts-and-events. The replay can be accessed for one week starting at 6:30 p.m. ET the day of the call by dialing 877-481-4010, replay access code #36590. A replay of the webcast will be available for at least 90 days on the company’s website, starting approximately one hour after the completion of the call.
Long, in-depth review of the case and anticipated Du decision. Don't think I have seen this in the feed thus far: https://medium.com/@persimmon.tree.investments/amarin-its-all-too-obvious-5404fbe66c3f
Interesting both for GILD, but also in terms of relaxing protocols... @CDCDirector in testimony just now: Gilead's "remdesivir is available right now on compassionate use;" says it's been used in a number of people in WA state. Expects to know by April whether it works. "That's important, bc that's a drug that can save lives if it works.
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/pharma-and-life-sciences/hundreds-of-corona-patients-allowed-to-try-gileads-ebola-drug
that's good - from what I can tell that's pretty much the best price to be had all day. I doubt we'll revisit this level.
I would expect a positive trial ruling on the two aspects of the case and a pop to 20+. I wouldn't be married much to the Calls, as I would expect any pop to get sold, although the maybe the Great Awakening to the compromised potential will begin to come through... I own 4/17/20 20C also.
best fill was 2.35, I'm bidding 2.40 now but doubt anything comes of it.... in the context of other carnage I see, AMRN is getting a little love I'd say...
FWIW during the Halt... chasing those 04/17/20 15C calls ( I was getting them at $3.20 last week)... It's such a game... the bid/ask spread was more $1.00, and I bid .20 above the low at 2.25, no good. I bumped up to 2.35, and then it halted. I know I'll never get them down there. It's a racket...
Also, the benefits of age maybe... but to me the real oil crisis was when OPEC formed and gas went from .25 to .50 almost overnite, and then a month later it went to about .75. Changed your life, especially if you had an El Camino... with a tow hitch ha. I think I felt that worse then this today... and, ironically, oil is headed in the opposite direction. So... I can deal with it I think.
JDR, I'd say Yes Yes, and Yes to your points. It's a pretty buttoned-up chart and reflects - interestingly - both the potential (selling, but not indiscriminate selling), and condition for resolution of outstanding issues - that litany of things that it has battled and overcome. In the context of the current market, it's not surprising to see this weakness - many babies have gone out with the bathwater right now. But, to me, that chart looked "reasonable." Hard to say when you inject the emotional elements here... but strip that out and the chart is nearly ordinary, and just biding time... Again, it's not a market moment when stocks are being saved or bought on technicals, but we are looking for some clarity here when lacking the crystal ball.
When I get concerned about price action and events, I like to go back to weekly charts, usually just 6 months, but it was interesting to look at the 2 year weekly chart. In the glass half full I'd say the stock is simply in a range and waiting for the event that will move it out of the range. More glass half full, I'd say there has not been a negative event in the market's mind to push this below the lower BBand - and for the really optimistic, you could say we are still making a higher low (in basic BBand theory, once you touch the lower band, your next move will be to touch the upper band). I've definitely thrown some dry powder at these sub 15 prices and feel slightly less foolish for having done so. Also been buying mostly April 15 calls - even through most of the volatility this week in the market and share price, they were remarkably consistent - I rarely got much of a "bargain" price even when the stock was looking more dramatically negative. I don't rank charting and technicals over game-changing fundamentals - especially in bios - but when I viewed this one, it was more heartening than I expected. Charts like this tell me there is a floor on this price action. Considering the drama of the market and the various sidebar stories here, that's not bad... If forced to extrapolate further, I'd say - based on previous movement - that we are in for a slight basing period here maybe not less than 3 days and as much as 12 market days (03/24/20) - target move to 24 in some fashion afterwards. Gee, that would fit in nicely with a Du tell.
COWEN initiates with outperform rating and price target of $23
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+Cowen+Starts+Amarin+Corporation+%28AMRN%29+at+Outperform/16552196.html
GILD might be coming into a lot of money... https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-27/china-grants-three-patents-to-gileads-remdesivir-as-hopes-rise-for-effective-treatment-101521002.html
WSB very recent pumps were SPCE, LL, and yesterday MIK. I don't know enough about "the leaders" in this site as to whose word might drive things. LL, as an example was picked up here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bunch-of-traders-just-bet-big-on-this-massive-turnaround-play-in-hopes-of-scoring-a-short-term-windfall-2020-02-20
AMRN up in AH and I think this might be why... This is like the bull version of various bearish garbage that has had to be endured, although this is totally ephemeral. Come post ER, for these folks, it will be AMRN who?
Very FWIW - a reddit pump site has turned in some pretty good picks recently - on a day trade basis - and someone seems to have picked up AMRN... Warning, colourful language herein. They are playing in front of the earnings, so expect hot money looking for quick return and then exit... 300+ comments in the thread, so it's a substantial group...
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/f7bvt6/amrn_earnings_play_67_upside_to_price_target/
The option activity on GILD - which is huge - is potentially related to coronavirus vaccine success, and maybe what China would pay up for the patent on that. In a bo, GILD could take Vascepa to GILD's new best buddy - China... wheels must be turning in a few heads.
Hello North,
Yes, here is the link to the NEJM referenced, 01/30/20, made in my GILD mention: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home
GILD traded huge volume, 35+ million. Frothy stuff though and news-driven. But maybe they can build on it. Technically, they've been in a long basing period, so maybe they'll get a leg up here. No position with them.
As BB pointed out GILD is making some headlines over it's HIV based coronavirus treatment. Although the stock has been somewhat lacklustre, it still shows higher lows, and is not that distant from 52 wk highs. My guess is this news will give them quite a lift - big need for Hope as of now. Just something to consider in suitor-land:
In a statement, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) Chief Medical Officer Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., says the company has supplied experimental antiviral remdesivir to a small number of patients infected with 2019-nCoV, the coronavirus causing the current outbreak, on an emergency basis since there are no approved treatments for the respiratory ailment.
It is working with Chinese health authorities on a clinical trial to determine the safety and efficacy of the nucleotide analog (it is being developed to treat infections from Ebola and Marburg viruses). It is also expediting laboratory testing of the drug against 2019-nCoV.
The New England Journal of Medicine reported that the first U.S. infected person, a man in Seattle, was treated with remdesivir on the seventh day of his hospitalization. Although he is still an in-patient, all symptoms, except his cough (which has improved), have resolved. The day after he received the drug, his temperature dropped from almost 103 degrees Fahrenheit to 99.1, reaching the normal range soon thereafter.
Notes from layperson @TheWyseKid, via ST:
Trial Hearing Notes Day 7 & 8 (Part 1) - Attended yesterday afternoon (1/27) for just over an hour. AMRN counsel Jeffrey Elikan questioning their witness Dr. Peter Toth. Subject mostly centered on V benefits & comparisons to Lovaza. Dr. Toth countered against Dr. Jay Heinecke statements of no nexus in benefits of Reduce It trial & effectiveness of V to reduce high TRIs. One note from yesterday, Judge Du asked for clarification on Niacin therapy & why it wasn’t a viable option. I wasn’t there for the earlier discussion on this so don’t have full context but Dr. Toth explained Niacin can cause liver toxicity. Judge Du said Dr. Toth’s reply answered her question. Today I stayed for the whole morning session, J. Elikan continued questioning of Dr. Toth on same matters from yesterday.
Trial Hearing Notes Day 8 (Part 2) - Opposing Counsel (OC) Charles Klein then cross examines Dr. Toth asserting AMRN used prior studies to arrive at obvious conclusions of 96% pure EPA efficacy. OC states that 1 year before Marine study results came out, AMRN filed patents in 2009 reasonably expecting to have success in reducing TRIs, Apo B & neutralizing LDL C based on the obvious conclusions of studies 2008 & prior. Dr. Toth states this cannot be concluded given AMRN did not include any clinical data as part of the patent application. Dr. Toth states most of those studies had incomplete & factually wrong info so would be impossible to conclude obviousness based on them. OC then switched topics to Dr. Toth longstanding business relationship with AMRN as a paid consultant. Quoting Dr. Toth’s reply, “Here we go, go ahead lay it on me”. He confirmed that he does speaking engagements giving benefits of V & co-authored 14 journal articles with AMRN reps.
Trial Hearing Notes (Part 3)- OC asked him to confirm if he was paid $140K during 2013-2018 & $70K for 2019, figures they obtained from cms.gov/. Dr. Toth said his own 1099s for 2016 & 2017 showed small amounts & he doubts the figures are that high but he also wasn’t sure of the total. AMRN counsel then objected to OC citing the cms.gov/ numbers stating they had not previously disclosed this as evidence (7K pages of Excel sheets) & that they had not had a chance to vet for accuracy. Also stated AMA & other medical boards state cms.gov/ often lists incorrect data. OC asked judge to allow admitting info as they plan to use to impeach some of AMRN’s witness statements, including Dr. Budoff who testified 2 weeks ago. Judge Du stated that she would likely allow CMS data on Dr. Toth, but AMRN counsel should provide his correct numbers if wrong.
Trial Hearing Notes (Part 4)- For Dr. Budoff she would likely not allow CMS payment data, as he is no longer there to confirm or clarify how much he received. As this all occurred right before lunch break, Judge stated she would give her final decision afterwards, but this was how she would likely rule so both counsel should try to rectify accordingly. While in the hallway waiting for the elevator, AMRN counsel (C. Sipes & J. Elikan) were having a contentious discussion with OC about trying to admit the CMS docs not previously disclosed. They stopped talking once they noticed others were looking & said let’s talk further downstairs. I ended up in the same elevator with them, they got off on the floor before mine & went into another room. I left for the rest of the day so was not able to hear how the judge ruled on the docs but would assume she would rule as she indicated. I think tomorrow is the last day of trial, so will try to make it some part of the hearing.
END
Hope Sam can be provided Bloomberg access as his analysis and formatting of script #s was very compelling and informative. IMHO we'll hit a dead air pocket here soon as the last of the major catalysts subsides and we enter a limbo waiting game for the judges final opinion. Scripts may play a larger role going forward.
Our layperson @TheWyseKid via ST observations on Day 5 (interesting he notes that he thinks he spotted Michael Yee/Jeffries in the courtroom)
Day 5 Hearing (Part 1) - Arrived to court today (1/21) at 1:38p at the very end of Opposing Counsel Charles Klein question their witness, Dr. Carl Peck. Not much I can report on this, the small bit I heard focused on effectiveness of V overall. Next witness was AMRN commercial success expert, Dr. Sean Nicholson, a Cornell University professor of Policy Mgmt focusing on economics of healthcare & biotech sectors. Dr. N analysis noted 5 main points: 1. Determines V is commercially successful based on # of scrips, # of sales, trend of sales, marketshare & trend lifecycle. He examined the bio marketplace &Confirmation that V is commercially successful. There is a clear nexus between success of V & its efficacy, therefore patents are not obvious.
(Part 2) 2. From 2008-2018 AMRN spent R&D costs of $465M to produce V via Marine & Reduce It studies. V scrips grew from 174K in 2013 to 1.3M by 2018, significant increases over time showing that V has value in marketplace. V captures large market share because patients & insurers willing to pay premium for its benefits. 3. Drug most comparable to V, Lovaza, begins to lose market share at same time V is gaining, even while generic Lovaza introduced in 2014. V market share in 2013 was 4%, while Lovaza was 96%. By 2018, generic Lovaza market share is 5%, clearly showing that demand to pay for V is high due to its effectiveness.
(Part 3) 4. Used net present value (NPV) to determine AMRN expenses & return of capital cost for producing V. States most BP use this method to find value of product costs. This method was in contrast to opposing counsel commercial success witness, Dr. Ivan Hoffman, who disagreed that AMRN would be harmed financially by having generic version of V. Dr. Hoffman used entire 6 year period (2013-2018) sales comparisons of V & competitors, rather than showing year by year performance. 5. Dr. N pointed out that AMRN could recoup its R&D costs of producing V & return positive value back to shareholders within exclusivity time of 10 yrs with patent. He concludes that this is rare in bio market, which further shows V viability as an effective product that patients/insurers are willing to pay for over any other comparable drug.
(Part 4) I wasn’t able to stay for Dr. N’s cross examination by opposing counsel but did find him to be a solid & knowledgeable witness who knows the economics of the bio/healthcare workplace. AMRN counsel seemingly pleased with Dr. N testimony, & confident in general. Interesting side note, 95% sure Michael Yee from Jeffries was there today taking notes. No further hearings for the rest of the week, court to resume on Monday 1/27.
END
Our layperson @TheWyseKid at ST provides a 1/17/20, Friday summary. I am liking these in order to contrast with the "professional" Jeffries account. Here 'tis:
Fri 1/17 Hearing Notes (Part 1): Arrived to court at 4p instead of usual midday, hoping to get a summary of how the day/week has gone & status of the coming week ahead. Witnessed AMRN counsel Christopher Sipes cross examining Dr. Fisher, opposing counsel’s witness. I came in on the end of Mr. Sipes cross, but much of it centered on Dr. Fisher’s expert advice on how best to treat patients with high triglycerides and the type of medication to be used. Dr. Fisher stated that he would only prescribe V to a patient who had only high TRIs & no other medical conditions. For a patient that was on statins & had other medical conditions, such as diabetes, he would not prescribe V, but instead prescribe a generic. Since I was not able to hear his prior testimony, I’m not sure how this affects the overall case but I imagine those of you who are more familiar with the medical side of V may have a good understanding.
(Part 2) A 5 minute break was taken after this, before opposing counsel did their re-direct of Mr. Fisher. During the break, I stayed in the court room & noticed the AMRN counsel used the time to have light hearted conversations. There were a lot of smiles & they seemed pretty loose. This was in stark contrast to opposing counsel, who were huddled in a far corner on their side, having what seemed to be serious & terse conversations. At first I thought it was because they were discussing what questions to follow up on re-direct with Dr. Fisher, but when the time came for this, the attorney that actually questioned Dr. Fisher was not part of the huddled group. I could not hear what was being discussed during the huddle but the body language of those attorneys appeared tense.
(Part 3) Opposing counsel questioning Dr. Fisher was an older woman, I was not able to get her name. She spent time clearing up a point which came up during Mr. Sipes cross, in which there seemed to be an issue with exactly how much time Dr. Fisher spent treating patients after 2011. It seems he was not in regular practice as he spent some years in Oxford, I assume in England. I did not hear the initial context this was brought up in during his initial testimony, but it seemed a matter that opposing counsel wanted to clear up, pointing out that he did return to practice to supervise other physicians. Remaining re-direct was spent on the old Vascepa label vs new label, and Dr. Fisher was asked why there was a difference between the wording of the two.
(Part 4) Opposing counsel struggled with this & there was a bit of pause while she conferred back with her legal team to ask another question. This led to another objection by Mr. Sipes & the judge sustained this as well. After a few other questions, opposing counsel then called for their commercial success witness, Ivan Hoffman to take the stand. I can’t recall if it was Mr. Sipes or the judge suggesting that could Mr. Hoffman’s examination start on Tuesday instead & for the court to recess early for the day. But both counsel stated that they were ahead of schedule in the trial overall, so having Mr. Hoffman start on Tuesday would not put them behind. This was agreed by both & the judge. Before ending for the day, the judge made one admonishment to AMRN counsel regarding their classification of highly confidential documents.
(Part 5) She noted that some of the docs entered as exhibits are public journal articles, so not confidential, & that this would lead to less being redacted at trial end. A final observation, which is IMO after spending 5 hours this week, is that there is a clear, stark difference between AMRN & opposing counsel. While Ms. Keane seems capable, I found Mr. Sipes to be extremely effective. It’s easier to witness than for me to explain but he has a strong command in the court room & is very sharp. There is a certain ease that can be felt during while he's on. Another note is the swag of AMRN counsel, a lot of expensive suits on the left side. By contrast opposing counsel is less so. Out of the 3 attorneys I saw perform this week, I found only one to be decently effective & able to be followed. They seem to be a more B rated counsel vs. AMRN counsel. Obviously as an investor I’m in support of AMRN but I think it would be clear to anyone which they would prefer to be represented by.
END
...additional new call buying, 4500 2/21 $18 calls for $3, another 2k added to the 2/21 20 calls.
...unusual call buying activity in April17 30 strike Calls (2,652), .85x1.01. Hmm, call it a $quarter million
Finished reading 75-100 msgs and didn't pick up any pasted in current layperson reportage via @TheWyseKid at ST. His observations of the day's proceedings, are limited to the amount of time he was able to spend there:
Hi AMRN Friends, Day 3 Hearing Notes (Part 1): Arrived at court today shortly after 1p to hear Opposing Counsel exam their witness Dr. Jay W. Heinecke. They provided a slide entitled "Potential Counter Arguments" in support of Vascepa’s approved methods of treatment are invalid as obvious. 3 bullet points listed:
1. Studies that found DHA did not increase LDL cholesterol:
Agren 1996, Conquer 1996, Rambjor 1996, Mori 2000, von Schacky 2006, Bays 2011 - Marine Study. Dr. Heinecke expounded on each study to show how AMRN relied on them to build its case & eventually arrive to Marine & Reduce It trials.
2. Potential Advantages of DHA over EPA - Dr. Heinecke states he finds that AMRN considered DHA more effective than EPA to reduce LDL levels.
(Part 2)
3. Prior art studies on whether purified EPA alone will lower TRIs above 500 mg. without lowering LDL cholesterol. He stated he found AMRN to conclude that both DHA & EPA are effective in treating above 500 mg & referenced the Jelis (sp?) study that confirmed that EPA would have significant cardiovascular benefits.
My observation is that Dr. Heinecke seems to be a knowledgeable witness but he did have trouble clarifying some details & had to backtrack a few times to explain his point. This may not necessarily mean anything but just my observation. He was also asked by the court reporter to slow down as he spoke really fast. Again probably means nothing but just my observation & somewhat amusing. I was able to stay for 1 hr 15 minutes to finish his examination with opposing counsel but had to leave before AMRN's attorneys cross examined him. Nothing else to note beyond this, seemingly a regular day. I won't be able to attend tomorrow's hearing but will on Friday.
And notes...
I'm going to see if I can attend half day on Friday, either morning or afternoon. I think this will hopefully get a better idea of how the week went for each side and what the upcoming week looks like.
And FYI it's MLK on Monday so expect no proceedings
From JP Morgan:
https://www.biospace.com/article/jp-morgan-preview-small-medium-and-large-with-a-lot-of-m-and-a-speculation
Another company that is the center of intense acquisition speculation is Amarin, which markets a fish-oil derivative, Vascepa, to lower triglycerides and lipids. The company’s been the speculation of acquisition rumors for a while, but the recent acquisition of The Medicines Company by Novartis reignited the rumors. Potential buyers include Pfizer and Amgen, who have a vested interest in the cardiovascular disease space, although Gilead would be a possibility as well.
Porges noted, “These newly restructured diversified specialty biopharma companies require a constant stream of new products, technologies and development programs to maintain investor confidence in the durability of the growth outlook in their core franchises.”
...yes yes, groans on "fish-oil derivative."
Max Pain - Pretty flat all over the 17 area... I think some latitude there. News could cancel that out similar to efforts at chart reading.