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Dan, WTZ/GLG cost basis question.
Did you hold on to GLG after the aquisition of WTZ? If so, have you figured out how to allocate the cost basis between GLG and the new copper company WRN.TO?
I know that for each share of WTZ we got 1 share of WRN and .688 shares of GLG. I assume trading started around May 15th. WRN shows its first trade on Yahoo on May 19th at $1.91 open and $1.90 close. GLG opened on the 15th @ $35.98 and closed @35.27.
My cost basis on WTZ was 8.08
Does it make a difference to IRS how the allocation is divided as long as the numbers all add up? I called GLG Investors Relations (Jim)and they don't seem to have a clue.
Investec Securities said the copper market now believes that China has closed out the 130,000-ton short position allegedly run up by trader Liu Qibing late last year. Qibing, who worked for China's State Reserve Bureau, disappeared after building the position and was later arrested in Beijing.
"Most of the bureau's short positions were closed in March and recent weeks. There are few positions left and they are not sufficient to have a big impact on the market," Investec quoted Yang Yinghui, head of metals trading at Cofco Futures, as saying.
On the supply side, copper inventories were down 520 short tons at 15,202 short tons as of late Friday, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The thought of shorting EXPE still sends shivers down my spine.
Oops. Did a no-no here. Instead of letting myself get stopped out of NG traders @ $15.50 I did a double down.
NG picked up a few traders at 15.66 will sell at 16.40 or be stopped out at 15.50
"At December 31, 2005, the company had approximately $35 million invested in the San Bartolome project. Such amount is insured by a risk insurance policy from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC). The policy is in the amount of $155 million and covers 85% of any loss arising from expropriation, political violence, or currency inconvertibility."
Dan,
I doubt the policy will protect them from increased taxes.
Tomorrow, at two minutes and three seconds after 1:00 in the morning, the time and date will be
01:02:03 04/05/06.
That won't happen again for another 100 years.
CPNLQ wasup?
That was way too wierd. I buy some morning traders in gold, go to the gym for an hour and a half, return to find the PoG down $10. Now I'm tempted to buy some GG longs and hope to later exit the NEM trraders for nil.
Ouch, just got back from the gym to find it down 2 bucks. No physical stop in place. NEM
Somebody get a 2x4. I just bought some NEM traders at $52.10.
SLW Dan, I'm beginning to see why you have SLW in your holdings. What little DD I've done so far indicates they are highly leveraged to the price of silver and they are a pure silver play. That's exactly what I have been looking for now that WTZ is being taken over. Those long term contracts with GG are very sweet (hindsight). I picked up a small position today just to get my feet wet and will look to add on a significant pull back.
Thanks again,
nwsailor
March 2, 2006, 9:16PM
Miners' strike falling apart
Most workers at large operations return to their jobs
By FRANK JACK DANIEL
Reuters News Service
MEXICO CITY - A nationwide wildcat strike at mines, refineries and steel mills collapsed Thursday with union members returning to work at all of Mexico's biggest operations.
The strikes began Tuesday in support of the beleaguered boss of Mexico's mine union, Napoleon Gomez Urrutia, who faces a leadership challenge and accusations of corruption.
After shutting down the entire mining industry for two days, most of the union's quarter of a million members went back to work at Mexico's main plants and mines Thursday, the companies and the union said.
Work resumed at Grupo Mexico's massive Cananea and La Caridad copper mines as well as its smaller units. The copper mines produced nearly 320,000 tons of copper last year.
Silver miner Penoles reopened all its units, including the Fresnillo silver mine, the world's largest.
Workers also got back on the job at Mexico's Lazaro Cardenas steel mill complex.
The union said it asked all its chapters to decide at a local level whether to continue with the stoppages.
The mining industry has been in turmoil since 65 workers were killed by an explosion at a coal mine owned by Grupo Mexico last week.
Gomez said Grupo Mexico had ignored safety fears and called the explosion "industrial homicide." He accuses the government and top mining companies of backing his rival Elias Morales Hernandez.
Gomez is accused by the government and Grupo Mexico of corruption and misusing union funds. Gomez has denied the charges. Grupo Mexico denies his charges of negligence and says the union had given the mine the all-clear on safety.
Dan, interesting charts, thanks.
I know you follow Silver Wheaton so I have another question of you. I take it they are primarily traders of silver rather than producers. IF the proposed ETF in silver goes thru as planned March 20th, would you expect that to help or hurt SLW?
It would be interesting to include GLD in that chart mix.
"The rapid rise in the price of Au, Ag and Cu has caused in-ground reserves to be worth considerably more money which, in turn, is being reflected in the pps of many/most PM stocks."
It seems, as in the case of NEM, the higher extraction costs due to energy expenses would indicate a 'relatively' lower value for in the ground reserves. Won't all companies, sooner or later, be reflecting those added energy expenses? If true, the price of gold could go up and the miners down. NEM seems to of had that experience this quarter as well as last.
Could be the report from NEM which stated higher energy costs were effecting profits.
RTK I outsmarted myself this time. Picked up some traders Friday on news of the 60Min segment on coal to liquids show last night. Stock is actually down this am. Sell the news?
Fewer commercials
Pulling a tooth like that would transcend dental medication.
60 minutes ought to be pretty interesting this week. In addition to the stem cell story, another one dealing with Fisher-Trophic clean coal applications will be discussed. I have both GERN and RTK. Looking forward to Sunday.
"Sixty Minutes to run story on Montana and "clean coal" process as major solution to energy needs. Story features the Fischer-Tropsch coal process"
Should also be good for RTK
Dan,
With WTZ being bought up here do you have any other silver plays that you like?
Hotter, Faster, Worser (Global Warming)
by John Atcheson
Over the past several months, the normally restrained voice of science has taken on a distinct note of panic when it comes to global warming.
How did we go from debating the "uncertainty" behind climate science to near hysterical warnings from normally sober scientists about irrevocable and catastrophic consequences? Two reasons.
First, there hasn’t been any real uncertainty in the scientific community for more than a decade. An unholy alliance of key fossil fuel corporations and conservative politicians have waged a sophisticated and well-funded misinformation campaign to create doubt and controversy in the face of nearly universal scientific consensus. In this, they were aided and abetted by a press which loved controversy more than truth, and by the Bush administration, which has systematically tried to distort the science and silence and intimidate government scientists who sought to speak out on global warming.
But the second reason is that the scientific community failed to adequately anticipate and model several positive feedback loops that profoundly amplify the rate and extent of human-induced climate change. And in the case of global warming, positive feedback loops can have some very negative consequences. The plain fact is, we are fast approaching – and perhaps well past – several tipping points which would make global warming irreversible.
In an editorial in the Baltimore Sun on December 15th, 2004 this author outlined one such tipping point: a self-reinforcing feedback loop in which higher temperatures caused methane – a powerful heat-trapping greenhouse gas (GHG) – to escape from ice-like structures called clathrates, which raised the temperature which caused more methane to be released and so on. Even though there was strong evidence that this mechanism had contributed to at least two extreme warming events in the geologic past, the scientific community hadn’t yet focused on methane ices in 2004. Even among the few pessimists who had, we believed – or hoped – that we had a decade or so before anything like it began happening again.
We were wrong.
In August of 2005 a team of scientists from Oxford and Tomsk University in Russia announced that a massive Siberian peat bog the size of Germany and France combined was melting, releasing billions of tons of methane as it did.
The last time it got warm enough to set off this feedback loop was 55 million years ago in a period known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum or PETM, when increased volcanic activity released enough GHGs to trigger a series of self-reinforcing methane burps. The resulting warming caused massive die-offs and it took more than a 100,000 years for the earth to recover.
It’s looks like we’re on the verge of triggering a far worse event. At a recent meeting of the American Academy for the Advancement of Sciences in St. Louis, James Zachos, foremost expert on the PETM reported that greenhouse gasses are accumulating in the atmosphere at thirty times the speed with which they did during the PETM.
We may have just witnessed the first salvo in what could prove to be an irreversible trip to hell on earth.
There are other positive feedback loops we’ve failed to anticipate. For example, the heat wave in Europe that killed 35,000 people in 2003 also damaged European woodlands, causing them to release more carbon dioxide, the main GHG, than they sequester – exactly the opposite of the assumptions built into our models, which treat forests as sponges that sop up excess carbon.
The same thing is happening to a number of other ecosystems that our models and scientists have treated as carbon sinks. The Amazon rainforest, the boreal forests (one of the largest terrestrial carbon sinks in the planet), and soils in temperate areas are all releasing more carbon than they are absorbing, due to global warming-induced droughts, diseases, pest activity, and metabolic changes. In short, many of the things we treat as carbon sponges in our models aren’t sopping up excess carbon; they’re being wrung out and releasing extra carbon.
The polar ice cap is also melting far faster than models predict, setting off another feedback loop. Less ice means more open water, which absorbs more heat which means less ice, and so on.
Even worse, we’ve substantially underestimated the rate at which continental glaciers are melting.
Climate change models predicted that it would take more than 1,000 years for Greenland’s ice sheet to melt. But at the AAAS meeting in St. Louis, NASA’s Eric Rignot outlined the results of a study that shows Greenland’s ice cover is breaking apart and flowing into the sea at rates far in excess of anything scientists predicted, and it’s accelerating each year. If (or when) Greenland’s ice cover melts, it will raise sea levels by 21 feet – enough to inundate nearly every sea port in America.
In the Antarctic seas, another potentially devastating feedback loop is taking place. Populations of krill have plummeted by 80% in the last few years due to loss of sea ice. Krill are the single most important species in the marine foodchain, and they also extract massive amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere. No one predicted their demise, but the ramifications for both global warming and the health of marine ecosystems are disastrous. This, too, will likely feed on itself, as less krill means more carbon stays in the atmosphere, which means warmer seas, which means less ice, which means less krill and so on in a massive negative spiral.
One of our preeminent planetary scientists, James Lovelock, believes that in the not too distant future humans will be restricted to a relatively few breeding pairs in Antarctica. It would be comfortable to dismiss Professor Lovelock as a doom and gloom crazy, but that would be a mistake. A little over a year ago at the conclusion of a global conference in Exeter England on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, scientists warned that if we allowed atmospheric concentrations of GHG to exceed 400 ppm, we could trigger serious and irreversible consequences. We passed that milestone in 2005 with little notice and no fanfare.
The scientific uncertainty in global warming isn’t about whether it’s occurring or whether it’s caused by human activity, or even if it will "cost" us too much to deal with it now. That’s all been settled. Scientists are now debating whether it’s too late to prevent planetary devastation, or whether we have yet a small window to forestall the worst effects of global warming.
Our children may forgive us the debts we’re passing on to them, they may forgive us if terrorism persists, they may forgive us for waging war instead of pursuing peace, they may even forgive us for squandering the opportunity to put the nuclear genie back in the bottle. But they will spit on our bones and curse our names if we pass on a world that is barely habitable when it was in our power to prevent it.
And they will be right to do so.
John Atcheson's writing has appeared in the Washington Post, the Baltimore Sun, the San Jose Mercury News, the Memphis Commercial Appeal, as well as in several wonk journals. Email to: atchman@comcast.net
ECA is that in loonies or dollars?
On the lighter side:
http://www.lookatentertainment.com/v/v-1346.htm
I also like SU for the oil sands. Both ECA and SU up today even though the OSX is down.
I haven't read it yet but he must have said buy gold.
ECA What's your opinion about all the hedging they do?
In edit:More than 90 percent of 2006 gas sales has floor price protection
To help assure strong financial performance, EnCana put in place, during the fourth quarter of 2006, put options on about 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of 2006 planned gas sales at an average strike price of NYMEX $8.42 per thousand cubic feet. All in, about 93 percent of EnCana's forecast 2006 gas sales is hedged with a combination of put options and fixed price hedges with an average price of NYMEX $7.30 per thousand cubic feet.
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"Solar Plays, a company like that in S.A. could kill all the others business overnight."
Before I run out and start shorting silicone type manufactures I would do a cafeful review of the source of that info. They seem to be sensationalists.
OT Advice to Cheney:
You shot him, you gotta clean him.
Energy sell off seems to be helping CPNLQ.
PM's and oil taking a good whuppin' here. I'm starting to look around for some new traders. SU, ECA, NEM, GG,WTZ lets see what the day brings.
BTK up nicely today despite AMGN.
NG stopped out 9.95. Next buy 9.50
(If my form holds true today, the bottom will be 9.94)
NG Picked up a few traders at 10.04 stop 9.95. We could see a bvisit to 9.50 here or a quick bounce to 10.40
13:59 NG NovaGold Resources announces it has filed a preliminary prospectus offering of 11 mln shares (10.13 -0.57)
Co announces it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus under the multi-jurisdictional disclosure system relating to a proposed public offering of 11 mln shares in the United States and Canada. The net proceeds from the offering will be used to fund exploration at, and construction of, the Rock Creek project, complete final feasibility studies for both the Galore Creek and the Donlin Creek projects, fund the 2006 option payment due with respect to the Galore Creek project, fund exploration on the co's other projects and for general corporate purposes.
13:59 NG NovaGold Resources announces it has filed a preliminary prospectus offering of 11 mln shares (10.13 -0.57)
Co announces it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus under the multi-jurisdictional disclosure system relating to a proposed public offering of 11 mln shares in the United States and Canada. The net proceeds from the offering will be used to fund exploration at, and construction of, the Rock Creek project, complete final feasibility studies for both the Galore Creek and the Donlin Creek projects, fund the 2006 option payment due with respect to the Galore Creek project, fund exploration on the co's other projects and for general corporate purposes.