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Newly-just checked in. Consider this a restrained and polite request for you to refrain from calling me "boy" henceforth.
A sad and disgusting state of affairs...
...Is what it's been.
Gold going up and down in concert with COMMON stocks. Gold has lately been reduced to just another "Risk On-Risk Off" trade like a NASDAQ stock of inferior breeding.
This is most uncomfortable for us Proud Owners of Real Money. The King of metals, that soft golden glow of wealth for over 5,000 years rubbing elbows with the unwashed.
Unseemly and embarrassing. [Fabians been wearing sunglasses, a fedora, and a fake mustache while out in public ever since it began].
A feeling similar to what a Christian would have if he/she learned Billy Graham was drinking Scotch, smoking Swisher Sweets, and playing poker with "the Boys" on Sat night.
This ugly episode will pass.
As this is written, Real Money is appreciating nicely against a Doomed $Dollar while common stocks are mostly getting what they deserve.
On behalf of all those who have refined tastes in wine, women, autos, and art:
On Lucifers Stone,
Lets hope todays break from the Madding Crowd is
Golds re-ascention to the Place of Nobility high on the mount where it rightly Belongs.
And soon we can pass this "situation" off as an indiscretion like Jim Bakers "encounter" with Jessica Hahn... never to be repeated again.
[especially after Tammy found out]
Here's your weekend Flick:
http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/the_eyes_of_tammy_faye
Fabian
Thanks Mr. BDan, Hope you are well and while hoping...hope the recent lows in prec metals and stocks was THE low for a long time.
Frank F. Fabian
oh yea,
The Third!
Here's to wishing all on Zeev's a wonderful Memorial Day weekend
Very interesting...
Major bounce in both gold and general market stocks off the morning lows.
[all indices except the Dow held above last weeks low]
Nasdaq is green led by AAPL.
Gold still off $5 but way up from the lows..
So gold is acting in concert with stocks today....just another risk asset.
However....
As you know I've been somewhat pounding the table on gold miners of late. Deeming them especially attractive even against gold itself.
Historically cheap valuations vs. gold and absolutely hated...which is a contrarian alert to possible future out performance
Gold this morning nearly matched last weeks low.
Not so the miners. This mornings low was not really even close to the low they reached last week which as speculated, very well could be THE low for the beleaguered miners.
With gold still down $5 on the day at present, the Gold miners are up 4%.
To put it in perspective, that's equivalent to a +500 point move in the Dow while the commodity they are levered to for profits is actually down on the day.
That is high in potential significance and lends more credibility to the notion that last weeks low for the group may have been it.
No guarantee but nothing since last week has violated their potential for being in the upper 25% maybe upper 10% of best performers over the next 6 to 12 mo.
That is going far on a limb so we'll see.
Sometimes limbs break.
Fois gras re: I just read this on Trader Dans website"
What "this" are you referring to?
If you are suggesting I lifted the piece I wrote Mon. from Trader Dan, it would be one unbelievable co-incidence as I wrote that independently.
In fact, Below is a copy of all of Trader Dans blog posts since last Wed. [as far back as one can access].
Nothing there that could be construed as the one I wrote. Not even close. [and you said you "just read" it on Trader Dans"]
We happen to see eye to eye on many things but we write independently...as you can see:
Here's a link to my piece-
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75814872
Here is Trader Dan last Wed. through the present.
"Trader Dan's Market Views
Market Insights and News
This Blog Linked From Here
This Blog
Linked From Here
Monday, May 21, 2012Gold attempting to get to that "16" Handle
Gold put in a decent performance in today's session but was stymied at that psychological resistance level of $1600. It seems as if traders are basically standing around looking at each other to see who is going to commit first to buying it above this level.
Right now there is a general hesitation to get too aggressive as there is yet another, (sigh!) summit this week in Europe, this time in Brussels on Wednesday, where the market will have to digest whatever fodder these clowns want to utter. Look for more of the same talk that we got from this weekend's gathering in Chicago - namely - growth instead of austerity which translates to money printing.
At some point this will have the anticipated inflationary impact but not until we see something actually take place besides more talk. The moment, and I do mean the moment, we get confirmation that the ECB and the Fed are going to do the only thing that they can do, gold will move higher and start another leg in an uptrend. Until then we may have to be content with it marking some time here and allowing dip buyers to come in at appropriate moments barring some unexpected news.
I have not had to change the notations and resistance and support levels on the price chart as of yet but you can see where the resistance is located near the $1600 level. Above that, $1625 or so is next.
Downside support comes in at the $1575 - $1565 level.
Posted by Trader Dan at 4:56 PM 2 comments Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to FacebookLinks to this post
Whistling Pass the Proverbial Graveyard
Remember when you were a little child and had to walk past a graveyard or cemetery on the way home? The process was rather unnerving particularly if it was in the evening. So along comes the advice of your seniors..."Just strike up a pleasant tune and whistle it out loud. It will perk you up and chase away any fears".
I got the distinct impression that this is what occurred in today's S&P 500 futures pit. Oh I know what the "perma bulls" will tell us. "Equity prices had gotten too cheap. The economy is not as bad as the stock markets are indicating" and so on and so on. But the "whistling tune" I loved the best today was this one:
"European leaders are going to go at their problems by employing a 'GROWTH' strategy and are moving away from 'AUSTERITY'.
NOTE: INSERT MELODY HERE TO AID WOULD-BE WHISTLERS AS THE AIR RUSHES PAST THEIR LIPS".
Why not just cut the crap and state the obvious - these short-sighted politicians and monetary officials will do anything to prevent themselves from getting booted out of office by a public ADDICTED TO GOVERNMENT SPENDING. Look at what happened to Sarkozy. He was replaced by a Socialist who LOVES DEBT AND MORE TAXES to apparently try to fund it all.
Hard choices?! Forgeddabout it! That's for the poor chump stupid enough to think that the public will give him a chance to do so.
Either way, the result of this "pursuit of growth" instead of austerity was the supposed reason that we had an enormous short squeeze in the US equity markets today. My guess is that the powers that be made sure that they had their "pals" bid the market high enough to trip the algos into buying and then sat back and laughed at what they had managed to pull off once again.
With the FACEBOOK IPO smell still souring the air, one has to wonder how much more contempt these elites have for the general public whom they just led to the slaughter touting that piece of junk stock. Didn't matter however - today was "All these European problems are so overblown Dude - Day".
The timing of the big BULLISH OUTSIDE REVERSAL DAY just happened to coincide with a market approaching the critical 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level. That level also happens to not be very far away from the 200 day moving average. Surprise? I doubt that. Now we watch and wait to see how much, if any, staying power, today's contrived equity rally is going to have.
Posted by Trader Dan at 2:37 PM 1 comments Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to FacebookLinks to this post
China flips the Finger to Wall Street
The following article appeared today on Reuters which is well worth your read. In a move that illustrates the growing clout of China, approval was granted by the US Government for it to bid DIRECTLY through the auction system of the US Treasury, completely bypassing the PRIMARY DEALER BANKS.
My guess is that the Chinese were sick and tired of being front-run by these unscrupulous banks and issued a stern but quiet demand to either allow them to go this route, OR ELSE!
This further underscores the fact of the growing economic clout of China and just how utterly dependent our nation has become on its funding of our outrageous and downright contemptible indebtedness.
Exclusive: U.S. lets China bypass Wall Street for Treasury orders
By Emily Flitter
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/21/us-usa-treasuries-china-idUSBRE84K11720120521
NEW YORK | Mon May 21, 2012 3:35pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - China can now bypass Wall Street when buying U.S. government debt and go straight to the U.S. Treasury, in what is the Treasury's first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government, according to documents viewed by Reuters."
Commodity stocks...
Fairly good chance many or most finished what was a brutal bear market Feb to the end of last week.
Declines were horrific in so many instances.
Examples abound...Apache $111 to $80. A $31 or 28% decline
[I pick APA because it is a solid larger oil company-nothing exceptional about it that would make it subject to a huge decline of it's own doing. It is representative of so many others in the commodity space].
That decline in APA is
Equivalent to Dow going from 13,000 to 9,360.
Brutal bear market is not an exaggeration.
We've seen this during the washout lows of 1998 to March of '09 and the wash rince cycle has repeated since in commodity stocks.
The commodity stocks go up, go up more with the final hook being China's insatiable appetite for commodities, then they crash down based on slower growth expected in the world.
It all gets overdone on the upside and downside because institutions are in control, mainly hedge funds and speculators who are momentum traders and herd like... push grand macro risk on, risk off trades.
Value players have declined in importance the last few years so there are not the "normal" number of players to take the other sides of momentum funds [and algorithms] buying and selling, which means that mass momentum rules.
Which is cool because it means stocks get goosed higher than they ordinarily would [also fueled by QE's boost of animal spirits in an era of zero return on short term money],
Then they crash lower than they should.
I won't go through a big list of casualties as it's easy for anyone to do. Just call up group etf's or individual names in each sector. Their are wasted armies of victims.
How do we know this is the bottom? Of course we don't but sentiment got as bad as it has the last couple of times they bottomed.
There may be a natural floor of protection because the slower world growth should it continue or get worse [which would negatively impact the commodity companies future earnings of course], well, the markets have a friend at the Fed[s]. Whether future Fed action is called QE or something else.
[The Fed is likely to step in and help even if it's the ECB that finds itself in a real pickle]
With an overleveraged system both in Europe and in the U.S., Central banks including the U.S. simply can not let natural forces have their way. That is because deflationary forces remain strong and must continue to be fought with 'extraordinary measures" ie 'intervention'.
Think about this.
The U.S. [our Gov't] is spending 38% more than it is taking in in tax revenue. Just think of that for a minute.
That extra spending acts as a stimulus to growth. Despite that extraordinarily large deficit spending, economic growth in the U.S. remains historically very week and the unemployment rate remains very elevated.
Think what would happen if this country would balance it's books starting July 1st. Spend no more than it is taking in.
The U.S. would only briefly pass through the recession stage on its way to full blown depression.
Either world growth resumes higher which would boost commodity stocks... or [more likely], world growth remains weak which will call for yet more "extraordinary measures" from the central bank[s] to goose growth and there is no reason to believe those extraordinary measures will not yet again inflame speculative animal spirits and boost commodities and commodity stocks just as they have each time commodities and related stocks crashed before.
The commodity stocks won't wait around, they will discount either situation developing and I believe there is a good chance that discounting began last Friday. [ many will say, just a DCB, they are due and maybe this time really will be different...That really is possible but not the odds on bet going by precedent.]
We get somewhat used to the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in but it is truly bizarre.
1. 3rd year of Fed. Res. set near zero rates on short term money [with a promise to continue through 2014]
2. Fed buying 61% of all new Treasury bonds and notes this past year
3. Stimulative Fiscal policy running a deficit to the tune of spending 38% more than the Gov't takes in [as the National debt cruises past $16.4 Trillion [with..as yet, no whimpering from the bond market, quite the contrary as 10 treasuries at 1.75%/yr, 5 yrs, 2 yrs yielding almost nothing are seen as THE safe haven in a world no one quite understands fully.
And the result is 2% ish growth which seems month to month in some jeopardy..
Truly a bizarre situation no one could have ever imagined.
So far we have been able to borrow 38% more than we take in without negative repercussions. This country has been able to borrow more than $1 Trillion per year more than it takes in with no negative consequences. The Fed has printed money to buy 61% of the Treasury bonds needed to help fund this massive deficit...and to help drive long rates down to levels no one could have imagined. Not a whimper of protest from markets, bond or otherwise...
It must all be OK then right?
Why did the country not think of this decades ago. Borrow and spend whatever we want, then have the Fed print new money and buy most of the newly issues treasury bonds used to finance massive deficit spending and drive rates lower, keep them low.
Not worry or do a thing about a national debt that now amounts to $48,000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and... raise future generations obligations of indebtedness another $12,000/yr on top of the current $192,000 they are responsible for now. [for a family of 4]
Either theere truly is such a thing as a Free Lunch or....
words like Ponzi scheme...Unintended consequences..."in the end, there is no free lunch", comes to mind.
Thanks Cap'n Lee. Have a great weekend!
Ben Bernanke is the first Fed chief to explicity target and manipulate for a higher stock market as one of the stated Fed goals.
[which is a VERY liberal interpretation of the Fed's dual mandate seeing as how a higher stock market empiricially shows little causality when it comes to higher GDP growth or lower unemployment].
There is another reason, given the presidential election this fall, for Ben Bernanke to wish for and probably again manipulate for higher stock prices by election time.
His Job!
There is a high positive correlation between the stock market going up or down and the presidents re-election chances going up or down.
[Bespoke, second article down http://www.bespokeinvest.com/]
How does this relate to Ben Bernanke's job security?
If Obama wins, The Bernank will likely be his choice for a second term as head of the Federal Reserve [THE Plum job for an economist]
if Romney wins?
Romney has stated [April] that he intends to give The Bernank The Boot if he wins the presidency
It is possible that Mr. Bernanke is vaguely aware of this, and both he and President Obama may "act accordingly" before the votes are counted in Nov., and "act accordingly" may include doing what they can to see a rising stock market before election time.
Both have considerable tools at their disposal and Ben Bernake, as much or more than Obama, has shown a proclivity to employ them in search of higher stock prices..."for the greater good".
[Sorry salt of the earth sober savers who worked hard, did not get caught up in the debt and greed spiral, and who would like to after 3 1/2 long years, get more than zirp on their savings...
Continuing sacrifices must be made "for the greater good" It is your patriotic duty to continue to accept those sacrifices without complaint.
Someone's gotta do it.
[and it sure isn't going to be the banksters or wealthy investors]
F
Big opportunity in mid-tier gold producers...
I'm sure it has not escaped any of your attention that gold and silver stocks have been pummelled.
It has produced something extremely rare.
Mid tier gold mining companies, highly profitable, with fast growing production selling at valuations seldom seen.
I personally don't ever recall it happening but it may have. If so, quite rare.
These fast growing profitable gold miners are selling at very low PE ratios on the order of 10 give or take.
They normally sell at 20 to 30 or more PE's due to their growth and reserves of gold.
Of course the reason they have gotten so cheap is because gold has "crashed" all the way from $1923/oz to $1,540 per oz.
Never mind that when gold hit $1923, it was way above it's trend line for growth over the last 5 years,
I guess one could fairly say, never mind that at a Crash all the way down to the dismal price of $1540 an oz represents a price per oz that was only a dream HIGH price for anytime before the last year.
A price that even with fast escalating costs of mining is highly profitable for most gold mining companies.
These companies represent huge leverage to the upside in terms of stock price if one remains bullish on gold and is right about that, over the next 1-3 years.
AUQ is just one example out of many possible.
AuRico AUQ has a $2 Billion market cap. It is at $7.30 a share having touched a low of $6.70/sh on Wed. That is down from a high of $14 last August. No bad news from the co. since it hit $14. In fact, lots of news and all positive.
Eps for 2012 is currently pegged at $.67 a share and for 2013, the est is currently $.95 a share. [that will depend greatly on what gold averages in 2013]
Right or wrong, I'll take this company all day long at $7.30 a share over Facebook at the price it opens for trading today.
I won't go into further detail on AUQ as I don't want to make it sound like it's better than several of it's mid cap peers who all sell for really cheap historical valuations.
Of the mid tier, I own NGD, AUQ and it seems like one other. No matter. There are mid tier producers that I don't own just as good [or maybe better if you look into it]as those I do own.
This piece is intended to pique interest [not likely], not push one stock in this space over another.
Sure seems like a rare opportunity unless one is bearish on gold prices.
F
[opinion only-I think we'll see doubles and triples in some of these stocks over the next 2-3 years coming off these lows]
ABX [and PM miners]...
These comments are on ABX but also apply to other PM miners.
The performance of ABX and other PM stocks has been atrocious.
Sentiment disliking them is as negative as it's been since back in the crash days of late 2008.
Sentiment is very solid from a contrarian standpoint.
Sentiment was already set up good [contrarian], the pm stocks have declined a lot since "then", which has made sentiment even more negative.
How bad could sentiment get? No one knows of course but at least we have a reference point. As bad as it was during the crash days [which turned out to be an excellent buying opportunity.
Sentiment towards gold is negative but nothing close to as negative as it is on the miners]
Looking at the 10 year chart of gold and ABX.
in 2006, gold averaged little more then $600 an oz.
In 2006 ABX averaged barely more than $30 a share.
It is now higher $30s, Scant gain in price given that the product they sell was $600 an oz and is now close to $1600 an oz.
Part of the culprit is the cost of mining. Diesel fuel, machines, labor costs have all gone up dramatically more than "official" inflation numbers suggest. They have been running about 10% higher year over year recently.
The biggest part of the underperfomance vs gold [which really did not start until mid 2008] has been the collapse of their PE ratios.
Gold miners traditionally have had high pe ratios due to their substantial store of in the ground gold.
[yes it does take a lot of money to get it out of the ground and monetizee it but that's been the case yet pe's were for decades, high.]
Technically, this may be an important day, we'll see.
Gold is solidly down yet another day in this dismal week for the gold price, yet the GDX gold miners is solidly positive.
More than that it is a technical reversal day.
ABX was down to a new low early then turned up and is now up a buck or over 2% [holding near highs of the day] and volume today is running a good 50% more than normal. Reversal days on volume whether it is to the upside or downside can be significant.
While it would be foolish to declare loudly and boldly that today is THE bottom in a trend that has been going South for so long, I felt it is a significant enough day to say something about it.
More than that, I considered [last night] writing something about gold stocks today based on my reading of the extreme sentiment alone,
That was before knowing today was to be a reversal higher on volume day [on a day when gold is down]
Obviously, if gold is in for another several hundred dollar drop, there is little chance that todays low in gold stocks will be THE low in gold stocks.
If gold hangs around here at least or edges higher, this may be a special opportunity to buy PM mining companies like ABX which are trading historically very cheap with sentiment against them, near historic levels negative.
email sent to friends...ovesold commodity stocks...
"As Fly I-Bankcoin.com has pointed out so well the last 2 days. The commodity and energy stocks have been slammed.
Today they are bouncing up with real vigour.
I believe there is a trading opportunity for a few days-week.
take a look at a variety of commodity stocks but I'll just mention a few.
CAT, DE, coal stocks KOL, BTU,
Fertilizer- Mosaic MOS
SLW [or other silver and gold] may be included in above names but there are many possibilities within the commodity space
All of these are big companies that won't rip one for a big gap down openings on news. [might want to check to see when they report and avoid any that report over the next week, just to be sure. I think most commodity stocks report later].
It is always a dicey proposition for a trader to catch a falling knife. Best not to do it.
Much better to watch them fall and get oversold and nail them after a turn like today which is a robust turn which to me means stocks like those mentioned will likely move back up closer to their moving avg. That leaves ample room for a nice trade even after today's move up.
At least that is the way it has worked in the past with these commidity9 stocks which every year do fall out of favor and get quite stretched below their moving average.
If you follow up on this and make good money. Please do not send a check of appreciation to me as per usual.
I'd prefer all grateful "donations", go to the Home for Unwed Mothers. my favorite charity.
Mike
Gold stocks remain extremely cheap, a good long term contrarian bet if one believes gold will trend up. They are very very cheap vs. the metal.
If the above proposition holds true, there may be something in it for those who sell naked options in the April or May expiration"
Opinion only, do your own DD as usual.
F
Lee, sorry for the delayed reply. You picked out a good one in that ALLT.
Hope you are doing well. It still looks nice
Russell- new high after about a mo. consolidation.
QQQ, NAZ, Rut...are rocking.
Quite the spirited 6 mo rally and without exhuberance.
Gold about ready to come out of hibernation?
Sentiment a week ago got possibly, enough sour to create some upside.
What is about the most out of favor group?
How about Gold stocks
Not even gold bulls like them much due to their continued underperformance vs. not just the market, but also gold.
Valuation looks good, of course it also looked good 6 mo ago and they continued to underperform gold both up and down.
That may not be a permanent situation.
F
Analysis of 3 stocks that went W, gave a buy signal.
The first is Devon DVN which went W [buy signal] Feb 18th at $69 a share. Devon then quickly climbed to $75 over subsequent days.
As you can see by looking at the chart, Devon then went into a slow gentle correction with the low being $70. [rounding off these numbers]
It was easy for some to think that Devon was failing during that pullback. Not at all. What it did was quite normal, very similar to a Salmon which makes a furious run up a big waterfall, but then has to rest in quiet waters before heading upstream again.
What you will see during this correction is a gentle bowl shape and on much lower volume which is what should happen and means so far so good.
Devon, the last few days started forming the right side of the shallow bowl and is now back to $75 again with prospects indicating it's likely climb to new highs from here. [prospects, not certainty]
I more than doubled up on a Devon position during last weeks dip into the bowl.
Of course, I'd have done better buying it within minutes of it going W at $69 but frankly, it caught me by surprise and I did not even think to add more then. My mistake, but once done the next best thing to do was wait for the bowl and try to catch near the bottom of it.
Devon was not an upward momentum stock before it went W. me. [which was part of the surprise]
When stocks without upward momentum go W, they are more likely to need that rest and slight pullback period before resuming their climb
Example #2 is VVUS which went wildly W at $19 on massive volume. That opening trade was up roughly 90% from it's day before close.
VVUS was also not an upward momentum stock. If you look at the chart, it had follow through after going W, quickly getting up to $25 in a few days but then it went into the same type of shallow bowl pullback as Devon with the low being $20. So far VVUS is following the same pattern as it's now climbing up the other side of the shallow bowl. I also added to VVUS [small add] last week as it dipped into the shallow bowl.
Volume contracted nicely during the correction which is normal and good, what you want to see.
[VVUS is dicey, W or not. By the end of the month the FDA will determine a great deal of the stocks fate. They SHOULD go along with their advisory panels 22 to 2 recommendation to approve Qnexa, their weight loss drug, but it is the FDA and the FDA at times runs scared...especially when it comes to weight loss drugs because they have such potential for widespread use. So, We'll see how it goes but just taking it's behavior after going W, it's similar to Devon for the same reasons and so far so good]
The Third example is AAPL. AAPL gave another buy signal Feb 25th when it gap opened about $20 higher at $441 a share. AAPL was in a different position than Devon and VVUS. AAPL had upward momentum before going W. AAPL was essentially at all time highs the day before when it was $20 cheaper. That gap open $20 higher on big volume at $440 was the buy signal [went W].
AAPLs behavior subseqent to that has been different than VVUS or DVN. It barely consolidated a couple of days then started climbing reaching $600 in less than a month.
That is because AAPL was positioned more favorably before it went W. Those W stocks most likely to just keep on climbing without significant corrections are those with high relative strength, high EPS rank, and those who's stock is at or close to yearly highs, even better all time highs. They are tough to buy [emotionally]...$440 seemed so high...not only an all time high but $20 more than the close to all time high it closed the previous day.
High and low are always relative in markets. $440 does not seem so high with the stock trading at $600. That W buy signal was good for a cool $140 a share gain in mere weeks. A bit unusual but this gives you some idea of the pattern.
Stocks in a downtrend that go W, still eventually produce gains most of the time but they are far more susceptible to having a deep correction a week or two after going W. It's as if their is still a force field of downward momentum that wants to suck them back down.
That force field of course is overhead resistance and also a belief in investors minds that the stock is still a dog even though some news event made it explode higher on high volume.
I tend to avoid stocks going W that have been in solid downtrends. The buy effect is much better with stocks at least neutral and even better, those already close to highs and showing previous upwards momentum.
Thanks,
Fabian
FCFS today is rumbling higher after a 4 day consolidation at it's 200 day m/a after a big run.
Volume looks to be better than normal.
The stock is likely to continue to work higher should the market remain at least neutral overall.
It's chart looks solid.
The stock is up 19% this year and not quite the bargain it was in Dec but it's no worse than fairly valued. [$54 a share would give it a valuation of 20 X expected 2012 engs].
Given it's consistent growth over the years in sales and earnings, the stock can easily trade at a higher multiple on higher earnings.
Some think of fcfs as a company that may do well in a tough economy. While true, FCFS also does well in a good economy. That has always been part of its attraction.
During the 5 year period of 2002 to 2007, FCFS sales and engs growth continued as the stock went up 5 X in value It's 10 yr gain is now close to 1400% vs. -40% for Financials XLF
An excellent buy and hold stock that can give some good trading opportunities because of it's extra volatility vs. the market
Excellent management.
Fabian
Excellent start to the New Year for gold also. Handily outpacing what has been a good gain for the stock market.
Hi Belgie, Thanks but was Y truly bright enough to actually buy any then?
umm, no.
You are right, would not bet against McEwen.
NEVER bet against Belgie![g]
Have a great weekend Belgie and the rest of you Zeevers who have managed to stay one step ahead of the law...
so far.
F
FCFS reported results before the open. Just what they said they would be Tue of last week.
All built in right?
wrong.
It's as if institutions awoke from their slumber and FCFS is up 5.3% today on high volume and all based on their engs report. [that's only 1% less than AAPL's gain which was a true major upside surprise]
Talk about asleep at the switch on First Cash. They [institutions and investors] got the news a week or so ago from First Cash on what was to be said including what to expect for 2012. Nothing in the report today a surprise.
Stocks up $5 in the last 5 days with nearly half of that today.
The chart was tipping it's hand a week ago...subtly, but tipping it's hand nontheless.
sniff sniff....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=71110600
Fabian
FCFS...
sent out this morning.
"....Strong probability the stock will make significant gains this year. Very good reward vs risk.
Why I bought more yesterday:
chart:
9 week bottoming base was put in
There has been a subtle shift from distribution to accumulation starting Dec.28th.
No chance of a Jan 25th engs disappointment. They will beat est slightly. Blows me away in a positive way that the declining gold price in the 4th quarter did not affect their engs at all. That means business and results are very reliable with small chance of a major miss on engs.
Fundamentals:
At $35 it was 15 X engs with an 18% growth rate for 2012.
That is a cheap multiple given their steady growth and the predictability and reliability of that growth [and engs]. Companies like that are rare and deserve a premium multiple.
No buy in the market is guaranteed to turn out well but I feel very good about this.
It's not China, no evidence they are fraudsters fom the company's inception to now. Long, excellent track record in the corporate governance dept.
The New guy Obama slipped in under the radar during congress Christmas break will most likely end up cracking down on payday lenders.
Hes a tough guy and is not sitting quietly in the background.
Payday is only 9 to 10% of FCFs's business which is why i went with them again 1 1/2 yrs ago instead of their competitors more heavily exposed to payday lending.
And of course fear of this guy is part of why FCFS [and others in the industry] got as low as it did anyway. Market discounted future trouble which may not even have any [or minor] effect FCFS some day down the line.
First Cash opened 82 new stores in 2011 and expect to have another 85 to 90 by the end of 2012.
Mostly funded by cash flows.
Then there is the new stock buyback program also funded by cash flow".
"Spy went down and filled the 128.10 gap from a few days ago.
There is another down at 125.60 that likely will filled before Eminemm becomes President of the USA. or a dear friend [name withheld due to "sensitivities and proper decorum"] turns from Perma Bear to PermaNoBias.
Of course..todays open left a
"hanging chad"
Who knows, today just may be the start of...
something..
which would fulfill our yearly projection that stocks are likely to...
Fluctuate.
It is disappointing to see gold return to it's recent old ways of getting the 24 hr flu just because the stock market yuks up breakfast.
Gold simply must return to it's old- old ways of standing on it's own three feet and saying...
Att: Elitist Establishment Members bent on destroying your Peoples Fiat currency [Ben Bernank Honourary Chairman]............
'I piss on your Fiat"
FCFS acting pert day two, and diverging positively from the markets weep session and on decent volume for 8:30.
It might just do..
Something
If any part of this message did not meet your highest standards of insight or literacy.
Just remember how much you paid for it.
While other literary artists would say:
I piss on your subscription.
I refuse to"
F
Definitely OT--Cap'n Lee. May we humbly submit the following to the 2012 Quote of the year contest? [even though...an outsider]
Sadly, we were not clever enough to think of them [nor sadly..did we have the experiences that would call them to mind]
There's actually two quotes for submission...the planets got aligned.
Dominique Strauss:
"I Have No Idea If I Slept With Prostitutes At Those Orgies Because Everyone Was Naked"
Honorable mention goes to his defence lawyer:
"I defy you to tell the difference between a naked prostitute and any other naked woman,"
[There's such wonderful earthy pithiness to those quotes]
Sanya Khetani | Jan. 12, 2012, 2:03 PM | 5,838 | 20
In a new twist to the Dominique Strauss-Kahn saga, which has become a hunt for a prostitution ring operating out of Paris, his mobile phone records showed he had relationships with 10 women, allegedly all call girls, the Telegraph reports.
But DSK's lawyer has countered with perhaps the single most brilliant defense argument in modern history.
He said his client had no way of knowing the women at the swinger parties were prostitutes because they were "all naked at the time".
"I defy you to tell the difference between a naked prostitute and any other naked woman," lawyer Henri Leclerc said.
Prostitution is legal in France if the girl is over 18, but if the case expands to cover graft or procuring, Strauss-Kahn could face charges, the Telegraph reports. The new evidence could help police determine whether the erstwhile IMF chief knew the women he had sex with had been paid to do it, as they claim.
Despite being dogged by lawsuits and scandals galore, Strauss-Kahn has been tentatively seeking to return to public life, making recent appearances at an economic forum in China and in Sarcelles, the Paris suburb where he was mayor.
.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dsk-prostitutes-naked-orgy-2012-1#ixzz1jKIwLi3y
FCFS and groups/sectors...
sent to friends.
It sure has made a performance difference depending on group/sector
Have not sectors have done about nothing and "have" sectors have really been on a tear
I don't look at all sectors but of those I watch,
Biotechs BBH have been on fire
Homebuilders XHB
Regionial Banks KRE
strange bedfellows [and this is not a recommendation it's now time to jump in after they have run so much]
FCFS-Have not talked about it in a while because it's been plain to see looking at the chart for 10 seconds the last few months that the chart has a "compromised" look about it, ever since it fell quickly from an exuberant top over $50.
FCFS has continued to show "aww...do I have to go up??" action on good market days. There has been little buying strength and while sellers are not adamant they have outgunned the lesser number of low conviction buyers.
A constant stream of higher volume on down days than volume on up days.
That has to be turned around for the chart to shape up.
Volume needs to start coming in above the daily average on up days.
It's done that twice. The day FCFS announced the next stock buyback and the day of a brokerage firm upgrade.
Not enough.
I have thought since Dec late that FCFS has the "best" chance of producing a rare engs miss when they report engs [later this month] than they have had in the last 2 1/2 yrs. [why?--relates to gold going down quite a bit during the 4th quarter and I think that is a drag for 2 specific reasons].
By the numbers,
FCFS looks like a decent value once again based on likely 2012 engs [even if they miss a quarter or two].
Biggest stock holding here, Sold 29% the day of the top [why sell any other day?] and repurchased half those shares in the $39s [pop to $42 then wilt], and the other half in the $36s. Have been nervously sitting since. Nervous because of the possibility of an engs miss and because the chart action has been so insipid.
Today FCFS is up and volume is coming in high for a change. That is good and welcome but the price gain is not so robust as of this writing [+1.17%]which means it's a party today but someone forgot the coke.
Still, owners should be grateful...at least it's something technically positive for a change.
No reason to think that FCFS should not be an excellent return long term hold at it's current price.
If they do meet their engs est. with no miss....that would be most impressive. I don't see how they can avoid missing a bit but would love to be proven wrong. An engs miss might be built in but it might not and engs misses are generally met with some indigestion from those who are "surprised".
I may take a little off the table if the technicals don't start shaping up better before approx Jan 25th.
Today may be the start of better...we'll see, it will take more.
Fertilizers still look good on pullbacks, even minor ones like today. POT, IPI, MOS
Mike
One oil stock deserves mention. Old friend Continental Resources CLR [Bakken, plus other hot areas]. PE is high because their good positioning is well known but the chart continues to look robust and it's near all time highs. Looks like a technical buy on any decent pullback.
Bonus stock...
Randgold...GOD [known of it for a long time but only really looked under the hood yesterday ie, Due Diligence but not deep DD.
GOLD-what's to like?
Fast increasing production, technically superior to most gold miners being closer to its high.
Take a look at the engs est for 2011 and 2012. Eye Popping increase and very cheap on 2012 engs est if those engs come in close to expected, given the truly torrid increase in their sales and engs.
Like all the PM miners...if gold takes gas, Gold won't buy you that gold watch or mistress you've been eyeing.
If gold continues its recovery. There is a heck of a lot of leverage in GOLD from pe expansion potential and it's fast growth in sales and engs.
[mines in a politically secure area? Worth keeping in mind with any gold miner. RGLD, not sure]
Disclosure. I don't own GOLD preferring to keep my money in one's that will not make me rich cause rich would bring forth all sorts of evil temptations and I have no interest in doing the Devils Work. [subject to change]
Bonus interview--With Rob McEewen one of the most respected Mining executives who put togeher what is now Goldcorp [major home run] and is now running U.S. Gold UXG. Talks about how he is positioning UXG-his strategy.
It is clear, this guy knows exactly how to turn a small company and turn it into a big succesful company,. he explains how he is doing it. UXG is merging with Minera and he explains why. He will own 25% of the combined company...he put over $110 million of his own money in. [which is now worth $1/4 billion-he says he's "a little" in the money on that buy] . It is clear he plans on turning his stake into a $ billion.
The "problem" with the stock of UXG is that because of his huge reputation, investors bid UXG too high. [discounted way too much of the future]. The stock came way down, not due to any co problems.
I can't say if todays price is the time to buy but this is a good ceo interview if only from the standpoint of how a really top CEO thinks and operates. His long term strategic thinking.
http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo
F.
Message on Gold sent to friends, if interested...
"Bearish sentiment towards gold has gotten been pretty heavy [the last 6 weeks especially.]
A lot of negative articles on golds prospects which is to be expected after a [max]19% correction.
But, that correction was from a well above trend peak at $1920 after a fast and furious run.
Gold finished the year ,despite the correction, up for the 11th or 12th year on a row [up over 10%] even as the SnP turned in a flat performance during the past decade [and a generally flat 2011 on most market averages]
Corrections on the way up [some steep] are part of every secular bull market that has ever occurred.
[think-stock market crash of 1987 which looking back, was just a blip on chart on the way to dow 14,000]
While I do not know if the recent low was THE low in gold, there is a fairly decent chance it was. Who knows, no one does really although many have opinions yes or no.
It is possible [I've thought at the start of each of these last 3 yrs] that gold could have a negative return for the year after being up such a long string of years in a row.
It has not occurred yet, who knows if this will be the year, but it seems like the reasons for golds bull market are intact and it's ultimate highs still lie ahead.
As to investor interest:
There seems to be a lot of sound, fury, and talk at the end of a big run like we had last year to $1900 plus,
But, the fact remains that few investors or institutions own gold [or any significant amount of gold], and it would be highly unusual for this bull market to be over with such lack of ending participation.
For bullish arguments in favor of gold,
One can hear some interviews on King World News if interested.
So far this year the SnP has gotten off to a good start.
Once again though, gold is outdistancing it, but the year is young, so we'll see
Mike
Some people tend to want to buy gold when it is going up and think they will do that when gold pulls back. Gold pulls back and the nerve it takes to buy those pullbacks wavers and it generally does not get bought.
Secular bull markets, once well underway and much higher than where they started from, tend to be hard to buy into. [except near the end when greed and euphoria overcome hesitancy that prevailed for years].
Even during the stiff pullbacks, [when negative articles come out of the woodwork and doubts are again heightened] it almost becomes harder than ever to buy as doubts go up accordingly.
.
Do I know the bull market is intact and will take gold to new highs?
No, but I think it's the higher probability bet and one should not take a limited view on the constraints on how high is possible. An open mind about it is a good thing.
It looks probable that gold will today vault above it's 200 day moving average. Technically, a positive development should it hold and gains beyond that take place for a little confirmation and cushion
It would improve the technical picture and possibly draw in sideline money from those who trade golds technicals. [especially in the futures -paper market for gold].
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html
As Jessee Livermore said. He knew lots of traders who could sniff out tops or bottoms. Few ended up making big money out of the subsequent moves.
Getting on board was not the problem.
It was the sitting that was hard, much harder than appreciated."
Fabian
OT-Happy Friday! Hello Cap'n Lee and fellow Zeevers....
Word arrived via private courier that you requested a check in.
I hope you all had wonderful Holidays and wish you the best in this New Year.
Sorry to be out of touch for so long but the train kind of left the tracks 3 1/2 mo ago.
Not to bore you with the details
But...
What happened back then is...
If you recall, Ms. Newly2 again said no to merging our respective empires and tying the knot in Gillette Wyoming where we first met.
Wounded by her refusal, we sought solace in the company of hot local ladies. Got burned every time, 4 in a row.
We'd get snookered into believing they wanted Fabian for his mind, then it soon became apparent there was a hidden agenda. They wanted something else...
Fabian's body.
After 4 in a row, we got tired of being treated like a piece of Aged RibEye and decided to date a robust farm gal fresh in from Iowa.
You know, the down to earth kind you can trust.
While celebrating at home one evening sharing a bottle of MD 20/20, ol Fabian hoisted her across his shoulders just like carrying a small mule which we're used to doing to win bets.
Even though she was a hefty heffer, it would have been OK were it not for her kicking and the slippery carpet runner in the hall. Down we went with she on top and a trip to the hospital ensued. Fabian was in traction for most of Oct until just the other day.
Meanwhile, we put the firms trusty secretary Mandi in charge of running Fabian Group LLC. We figured that at age 20 with 9 mo experience, she had that right combination of youth and experience to ensure smooth operation and the usual flow of lush profits.
On New Years Eve the firms accountant came calling and said the firm did not have enough capital left to trade for another day.
Not only that, the Bentley Arnage got repossessed, the driver got repossessed, and Mandi had run off with our best trader back to his home country Ukraine.
Despite these unwelcome developments,
We remain optimistic about the future even though we're very out of touch and can only proffer this bit of wisdome as it pertains to markets.
They will fluctuate.
The Doctor said in due time, the back would be good as new but he banned carrying small mules or hefty farm gals for at least 6 months.
Fear not, we've experienced hard times before and will bounce back.
We'll show that Newly 2 she made a mistake which, she probably realizes already.
Is she still around? and has she gotten less prickly?
Never could figure her out. Smart enough, winsome, even fetching in low light, but she sure could get her claws out if the compliment wasn't phrased just so.
If it was her we had thrown over our shoulder that fateful night, none of this ever would have happened. It would take 3 of her to equal that farm gal. [who ended up going back to Iowa and marrying a preacher with his new double wide on 5 acres outside of Dubuque].
Better stop here,
Don't want to bore you with details,
all the best,
Fabian
How about that Father Fred,
Has he been checking in regularily to say he won't be back?
What does he expect for 2012?
Any of you guys know what the markets are going to do this year?
How about gold and silver? It appears they had a rough 4th quarter.
How about that Chart Reader. He ever come back?
Every time we turned on CNN while in the hospital and it showed the market up only 30 after an + 280 Dow point day, we could just imagine he was muttering...
"Bullz Have No Ballz"
We miss that Ms. Newly too in a twisted way.
Must have been that one night 18 mo ago in Gillette when the folks in room 114 called 911 thinking something was going wrong in room 112.
All the best Cap'n and Zeevers!
Holiday Greetings to All,
Mea Culpa....
Sorry for all the whining I did in the previous life [this past year].... about how the cost of things were going up so much. [and the Gov't would lie through its teeth and say that inflation was only 2.1%].
I now realize, that horrible inflation our family was experiencing, was only so because all I bought was food and fuel,
Aka...Necessities.
Screw those necessities!
Since I have expanded my horizons to include buying all those wonderful things not needed for a Vacation House [also not needed], it's been a transformational experience.
I've been, in a Consumer equivalent sense,
ReBorn!
Anything to do with Audio/Visual like TV, Receivers, speakers or anything made in China, India, or Pakistan [or is it Bangladesh]?
Vaccuum Cleaner...Brand new $50 [less than it was 6 yrs ago and it is a Fantastic Vaccuum cleaner...I want to buy a 3rd one I love it so much]
Christmas Trees!
Shoot folks,
On the way back from a wonderful hike UP and OUT of the CURSED Willamette Valley FO@#*G zone and INTO the Blessed SUN zone this afternoon, I stopped at our corner lot and the Christmas Tree Farmer who grew them said
"$5",
I went over to a pile of still baled 7 footers [cut within the last 24 hours!] and picked one out. ["Baled" to you Midwesterners, means it was cut, then put through a baler that cinches them with twine tighter than a fat lady from Omaha in an industrial grade titanium girdle].
Great for transport, great for setup.
So easy!
When home 80 seconds later, I opened the hatch of the van, put the stand in place on the exposed butt end [no homo], and cinched it up. Then I set it on the sidewalk to make fine tuning adjustments so it would stand straight, proud, and tall...
Zoom, it went into the house easy as can be since it was bound like a subservient Geisha, then set in it's proper place...like a subservient..never mind.
Stings were cut and the tree opened like a beautiful flower.
Gorgeous tree, Possibly the best we've ever had...$5, thanks to The Bernank and the Great Deflation [in things not truly needed].
Screw eggs, butter, meat, grains, flour, sugar, beans, gasoline, oil, electricity.
Let the Egyptians and Third world fight over them with their $2 a day wages.
You won't find me buying them anymore.
Not since I discovered what the great wide world offers in terms of deflationary bargains in:
"Things not needed"
Want a gorgeous all wool, all hand knotted, hand dyed yarn, pre-owned Persian rug for $300-$500??
Free pad included and free shipping??
Took the lady in Iran 3- 5 mo to make 45 yrs ago?
Just let me know your preferred colors.
No catches, the real deal! [I now own 2 of them]
Don't be a sap like I was and buy necessities.
That's what poor people do and that is, in good part...why they are Poor!
Screw all these silly 99% against 1% demonstrations going on in all the big cities...
That's like protesting high humidity in Baton Rouge Lousiana in July.
Good Luck!
If they had a functioning brain they would....
BOYCOTT NECESSITIES!
Buy smart, be happy, and remember what makes America GREAT...
"Ours is not to question Why.
Ours is just to Buy and Buy!"
No Cash?-- No Problem!
You aren't in Kansas anymore!
In That True Sprit of Christmas,
I say unto you,
Merry Christmas!
Mike
Special warm Holiday greetings go out to The Bernank and the Misses
P.S.
That 60" Mitsubishi TV I own and love so much???
Piffle!
Mitsubishi doesn't even make them anymore.
72" is the smallest they make on up to 92" [in 3 D, Internet Ready... of course!]
That my friends is what makes America The Greatest Country God has Ever cast his Benevolent Gaze upon.
P.S. 2
Boycott Eggnog.
It is made with MILK and EGGS!
Go buy a TV instead.
Newly, in reply to your Warmly Received PM [this for her eyes only,
Others who read this...Well, You know the routine,
You go to JAIL!]
Love and kisses to you too,
Have a wonderful weekend,
Until we are in each others arms again,
I remain proud yet humble,
and of coarse,
Forever yours,
Fabiam
Father Fred-With all due respect, Your work here is never done.
Roll up your robe sleeves and work with the common man. We'll put shoulder to the grindstone during the week then get drunk and cavort with loose women on weekends.
A mighty empire will get built but we need all hands on deck for dark enemies conspire to thwart our efforts.
The devils messengers will be defeated as they have in the past and victory will be ours.
We'll eat, drink, and shower together...in a very non-homo way of course.
Fabian
Yea Lee, and the thing is, she was star struck head over heels at foist.
What could have gone wrong?
Oh how we pine for those days, if only for a moment,
We look back fondly to where it all began..
http://www.americasbestvalueinn.com/bestv.cfm?idp=639&rcode=lcl10
Forlorn...
Fabian,
[the folks in unit 8 called 911.
They thought someone was getting hurt.
911 knocked on the door and said
What's wrong?
We winked and said,
No, the question is,
What could be going so darn right?
They smiled and left.
It's happened before. [g]]
Lee, No not in love, just lost in the wilderness of life.
Please sent Nubility to rescue asap.
NewPutter??
Send her on over. We'll putt er
Fabian
You may knot know this Lee but we offered Newly the biggist dowry we've ever offered to any chick..ahem, woman.
Father Fred had even agreed to hear those sacred vows and sprinkle his love dust [as if any more was necessary!]
She flat turned us down.
Smart gal that Newly.
That's why we wanted her. Any gal smart enough to say no to Fabian is a keeper.
Those dumb one's who said yes?
they turned into
Professional Stress Generators!
Now they are off "lighting up" others lives with about 4,000 stress candles of energy.
Father Fred-Thank you for letting us know that you have nothing to say and that is not likely to change.
[g]
Fabian
That compels us to to say that we have nothing to say and expect that to continue for the next 4 hours.
Given that...
Hope you are all doing great.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Cheers!
ps,
ChartReader is doing fine, golfing more, quarreling with the bull run no less than usual.
Remains a best friend.
ooops, We've said too much already
The dollar has appreciated strongly against gold the last couple of weeks, which is to say...Gold got whacked.
The dollar has appreciated strongly against the Euro.
What has not changed are the fundamentals for the U.S. dollar. I still believe that gold is the more desirable of its three main competetor currencies.
As we watch every day, it is easy to get caught up in the day to day and make it bigger than it is.
Stepping back to get a little perspective shows that.
1. Gold in dollar terms has appreciated 15% this year despite golds recent weakness. [The dollar has depreciated 15% against gold].
2. Looking at the long term chart. There is a trendline connecting pullback lows going back to about April 2009. Gold touched that trendline Tue on it's dramatic spike down. Since April of 1999, that trendline has contained pullbacks in gold.
3. Gold nearly touched it's 200 day m/a which is support
Looking at the longer term chart, it is apparent that gold simply got too far above it's long term steady trend as it rocketed up during the summer and briefly touched $1918 or so.
For what it's worth, I can't quantify why, that spike down to the mid $1500s earlier in the week felt like at least a short term low. It is obvious that golds movement the last few weeks is unrelated to physical demand. It's dramatic above trendline rise and more dramatic fall lately can I think mostly explained by hedge fund buying and liquidation. [and stops hit]. Sentiment near the top from short term timers also got very lopsided bullish [If I recall, over 95% bullish].
While one can't be certain intermediate term lows are in, I think there is a good chance they are in the mid $1500s.
A more bearish case for gold would be if deflation grips this country. Gold does a lot better than many other investments during deflation but it's not necessarily going to go up.
There is a bullish trump card out there. Should deflation appear close to a real threat, Ben Bernanke and crew will come out with some version of money printing whether it's called QE-3 or they call it by another name.
Bernanke fully undestandshow dangerous deflation would be and deflation would have him donning his pilots cap and getting the money helicopter airborn.
[Getting that money into he system is another matter and that's the recent discussion I tried to get started.
QE-2 involved a lot of money printing but it did not go into economic activity, the system, which is a problem for which the Fed has no real answer for at present].
More money printing means more dollar debasement, so the dollar should weaken against gold all else being equal. [which of course means gold rises in dollar terms].
Whether it [U.S. $] falls against the Euro or Yen is another matter. Which of the 3 fiat currencies is least weak changes from time to time with the dollar now being stronger against the Euro.
Of course the dollar is also benefiting from the fear trade and the dollar and Treasuries are impossible to match when it comes to liquidity.
In times of significant threat, big money requires big liquidity and Treasuries and the dollar have been benefiting. [Also, the U.S. has no funding issues or high risk of blowup issues for now]
While it is possible the bull market in gold is over, I think the odds are it is not and this is another back to trendine buying opportunity which happens at least once and often twice a year with gold.
The best behavior from a technical standpoint would be for volatility to gradually die down and for gold to trade in a range for a while. Zooming up towards it's $1900 high quickly is not likely and would not be particularly desirable.
Not everyone who is considering the buying of physical gold [here or in India-China] jumps all over gold when it drops so quickly to the $1500s.
That kind of volatility scares many prospective buyers and they are more prone to watch for gold to stabilize [not go to new lows], then go in and buy.
[of course there are those that know exactly what they want and they do jump in on volatile price weakness].
If gold stabilizes, with volatility getting back in the direction of normal, [what I'm guessing will happen] I think there will be robust physical demand coming out of India and Asia and they are the big gold buyers, especially this time of year with the big Indian wedding period coming up in 3-4 weeks.
If this scenario plays out as expected, as mentioned today. NEM looks particularity well positioned of the big miners from a chart and technical standpoint. Nothing wrong with just owning gold GLD as a cash stubstte for near zero earning sideline dollars.
[The biggest bullish factor remains in place which is a negative real yeild and short rates near zero.]
Nothing is written in stone. With gold [despite the recent drop] still 6 1/2 X the lows of 10-11 yrs ago, the game is not so easy to "game" as it used to be.
I was fortunte to sell all GLD held the morning gold topped and I will probably not get tricky timng it-just go ahead and buy it back at a nice discount tomorrow. It sure beat cash all to hell during the last holding period and its use was as a cash substitute. About a 38% gain for the GLD during that holding period vs I suspect 1/100th of a % interest on the cash had it remained.
regarding the stock market.
I'm getting slightly uncomfortable with the quantity and vociferousness of the bearish contingent. Crowds are not my thing and it's getting crowded.
Don't put me down as a bull yet, not with the real Euroland dangers but it pays to ask oneself from time to time.
Where is mass psychology aligned right now?
What is expected?
Lets put it a different way.
What do the majority least expect?
Answer,
Robust gains in the stock market between now and years end.
From a sentiment standpoint, the market is in pretty good shape.
Of course, it could always get better.
One chart that I call up frequently is [Dr]. copper. One of the most important charts around.
It gives it's world economic opinion daily and undiluted.
Mike
Little known minor detail of his private life Lee.
he'd say...
Do you want all or just .612 of it?
[ladies were puzzled]
F
Daing Lee, Shoulda known you would catch it. Almost went to Wiki first instead of guessing.
But the CONCEPT was so important and I figured, his 18th generation removed grandkids would not be muffed.
Oh no, but YOU were!
LOL
F
Mr, Leonardo Fibonaci...Yes, the now 400 year old man nailed another one
From Monday:
"Golds short term low this morning was $1538.
It's now at $1638. The fibo .382 retrace is to around $1682, so today's rally off the low was so vigorous, gold has already traversed a big chunk of it's .382 retrace."
And what was the high on gold yesterday??
That's right, almost exactly $1682.
And now it's $1604 and acting like it went swimming after eating a breakfast of fishing weights,
Crazy how often the .382 retrace especially and then secondarily, the .618 works.
Silver is back to sheeting the shower after a one day break.
We did say "dangerous chart" right?
F
Do we care, Do we care??/did we sell at $1682?? Did we even take time to watch it?? ....oh, of course not silly.
Hope and hold [despite our own scary technical evidence to the contrary] is a well proven stragegy
[for not having to deal with the problems rich people have to put up with.
We go forth with no fear. It's only the kids college and their dads retirement money.
The '87 Impala is almost paid and who cares if air conditioner doesn't work. That's what windows are for, so screw it.
Screw you too if you laff at the kids mis-[ed]fortune.
[g]
In and out of AAPL for $.02. A .85 sec. trade, too fast to post.
Working on getting the in/out faster. Want to compete with the Algo's-quants. Now gunning for PCLN at $513.23...Feel a $.01 scalp coming up. [g]
Yawnnnn!
F
You bet Newly's impressed!
[ps.for some...of course it's BS!]
ot Newly...Just noticed your lush and lavish PM. Thanks for taking the time. Will read it all when there are moments to fully savor it.
[you know how hectic it can be while TRADING [g]]
Have a great hike,
F
Cap'n. We'll copy your post and send it to him so he knows it's personal.
F
ot-a fine line between confidence and overconfidence...
Remember PermaBear Chart Readers "Bullz have no Ballz!", that used to send Fabian over the edge??
We've not heard that annoying phase [usually spoken when the market was melting up] in a LONG time... thankfully.
It's BAAACK!
Just got this:
"OK bulls--show me some follow-thru...... (GLD, SLV, NDX, SPX.....)
(shades of old "bullz have o ballz".....)"
Yes, from our good buddy formerly known as ChartReader
Groannnn!
Fabian
It's worse than having an old dog you can't break from chasing the chickens. [g]
Market....Rallies in downtrends are often sharp.
Remember the long climb out of last Sept's lows? Endless days of up 20, up 30 on the dow.
There were almost no 100 down up point days for a long time.
[yes, there can be upside volatility-we witnessed that the first few weeks blowing out of the March of 2009 lows-more the exception].
While welcome, [the rally today]...it does not change the big picture [longer term] of the Dow or SnP chart.
I've been saying for quite a while it would take over spy 126 to do that.
I'd say there is a new number to add to that.
While 126 is still very important, it would be positive to even get above 122.50.
If the market musters that, [what I think would be] a big fight at 126 is likely to take place.
Meanwhile, the longer term chart still looks dangerous from here.
F
Golds short term low this morning was $1538.
It's now at $1638. The fibo .382 retrace is to around $1682, so today's rally off the low was so vigorous, gold has already traversed a big chunk of it's .382 retrace.
Doesn't mean it can't do more but its a number to keep in mind.
by the way.
Have not heard any reports on it but it's a near sure bet that buying in India-physical buying has been hot and heavy. They tend to jump all over price weakness.
Best guess is that there has been a lot of physical buying with the decline.
Keep in mind, the dramatic price moves the last few days in gold and silver are from the futures market and hedge funds.
Not physical supply and demand.
Never forget the power of hedge funds to move things in the short to intermediate term and their tendency to group think and group act almost simultaneously.
That makes for extreme volatility.
Must Be Patient. Yes..A reply!! You get 2 stars. OK, read through what I wrote about the complications of trying to do that that is likely to result in a strangle worse than a fat man wearing a pair of 10 yr olds boys briefs. .
What is the workaround around that?
Those mentioned are specific and very tough constraints it would seem.
Come on you guys, Help us out here.
Maybe the answer is,
They can't.
Run your case as to how they can given the markets 320 lb market linebackers on crack [creditors and future required creditors] that would say NO.
Fabian
No Lee, The Frying pan is mad. It's compulsive and manic-depressive, It's pure pain lying in wait as it feigns sleeping.
The world is calm and sane at all times despite occaions when out of pure jealousy...it imitates the frying pan.
F
Wait...
Bong!
did I confuse the issue and describe the fairer sex?
I can't wait to get hitched a third time.
I swear I'm going to do it again...in 2085