Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[fabian]

Message on Gold sent to friends, if interested...


"Bearish sentiment towards gold has gotten been pretty heavy [the last 6 weeks especially.]
A lot of negative articles on golds prospects which is to be expected after a [max]19% correction.

But, that correction was from a well above trend peak at $1920 after a fast and furious run.
Gold finished the year ,despite the correction, up for the 11th or 12th year on a row [up over 10%] even as the SnP turned in a flat performance during the past decade [and a generally flat 2011 on most market averages]

Corrections on the way up [some steep] are part of every secular bull market that has ever occurred.
[think-stock market crash of 1987 which looking back, was just a blip on chart on the way to dow 14,000]

While I do not know if the recent low was THE low in gold, there is a fairly decent chance it was. Who knows, no one does really although many have opinions yes or no.
It is possible [I've thought at the start of each of these last 3 yrs] that gold could have a negative return for the year after being up such a long string of years in a row.
It has not occurred yet, who knows if this will be the year, but it seems like the reasons for golds bull market are intact and it's ultimate highs still lie ahead.

As to investor interest:
There seems to be a lot of sound, fury, and talk at the end of a big run like we had last year to $1900 plus,
But, the fact remains that few investors or institutions own gold [or any significant amount of gold], and it would be highly unusual for this bull market to be over with such lack of ending participation.

For bullish arguments in favor of gold,
One can hear some interviews on King World News if interested.
So far this year the SnP has gotten off to a good start.
Once again though, gold is outdistancing it, but the year is young, so we'll see
Mike

Some people tend to want to buy gold when it is going up and think they will do that when gold pulls back. Gold pulls back and the nerve it takes to buy those pullbacks wavers and it generally does not get bought.
Secular bull markets, once well underway and much higher than where they started from, tend to be hard to buy into. [except near the end when greed and euphoria overcome hesitancy that prevailed for years].
Even during the stiff pullbacks, [when negative articles come out of the woodwork and doubts are again heightened] it almost becomes harder than ever to buy as doubts go up accordingly.
.
Do I know the bull market is intact and will take gold to new highs?
No, but I think it's the higher probability bet and one should not take a limited view on the constraints on how high is possible. An open mind about it is a good thing.

It looks probable that gold will today vault above it's 200 day moving average. Technically, a positive development should it hold and gains beyond that take place for a little confirmation and cushion
It would improve the technical picture and possibly draw in sideline money from those who trade golds technicals. [especially in the futures -paper market for gold].

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

As Jessee Livermore said. He knew lots of traders who could sniff out tops or bottoms. Few ended up making big money out of the subsequent moves.
Getting on board was not the problem.
It was the sitting that was hard, much harder than appreciated."

Fabian