Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[fabian]

FCFS and groups/sectors...

sent to friends.

It sure has made a performance difference depending on group/sector

Have not sectors have done about nothing and "have" sectors have really been on a tear

I don't look at all sectors but of those I watch,
Biotechs BBH have been on fire
Homebuilders XHB
Regionial Banks KRE
strange bedfellows [and this is not a recommendation it's now time to jump in after they have run so much]


FCFS-Have not talked about it in a while because it's been plain to see looking at the chart for 10 seconds the last few months that the chart has a "compromised" look about it, ever since it fell quickly from an exuberant top over $50.
FCFS has continued to show "aww...do I have to go up??" action on good market days. There has been little buying strength and while sellers are not adamant they have outgunned the lesser number of low conviction buyers.

A constant stream of higher volume on down days than volume on up days.
That has to be turned around for the chart to shape up.
Volume needs to start coming in above the daily average on up days.
It's done that twice. The day FCFS announced the next stock buyback and the day of a brokerage firm upgrade.
Not enough.
I have thought since Dec late that FCFS has the "best" chance of producing a rare engs miss when they report engs [later this month] than they have had in the last 2 1/2 yrs. [why?--relates to gold going down quite a bit during the 4th quarter and I think that is a drag for 2 specific reasons].
By the numbers,
FCFS looks like a decent value once again based on likely 2012 engs [even if they miss a quarter or two].
Biggest stock holding here, Sold 29% the day of the top [why sell any other day?] and repurchased half those shares in the $39s [pop to $42 then wilt], and the other half in the $36s. Have been nervously sitting since. Nervous because of the possibility of an engs miss and because the chart action has been so insipid.
Today FCFS is up and volume is coming in high for a change. That is good and welcome but the price gain is not so robust as of this writing [+1.17%]which means it's a party today but someone forgot the coke.
Still, owners should be grateful...at least it's something technically positive for a change.
No reason to think that FCFS should not be an excellent return long term hold at it's current price.
If they do meet their engs est. with no miss....that would be most impressive. I don't see how they can avoid missing a bit but would love to be proven wrong. An engs miss might be built in but it might not and engs misses are generally met with some indigestion from those who are "surprised".
I may take a little off the table if the technicals don't start shaping up better before approx Jan 25th.
Today may be the start of better...we'll see, it will take more.
Fertilizers still look good on pullbacks, even minor ones like today. POT, IPI, MOS
Mike
One oil stock deserves mention. Old friend Continental Resources CLR [Bakken, plus other hot areas]. PE is high because their good positioning is well known but the chart continues to look robust and it's near all time highs. Looks like a technical buy on any decent pullback.

Bonus stock...
Randgold...GOD [known of it for a long time but only really looked under the hood yesterday ie, Due Diligence but not deep DD.
GOLD-what's to like?
Fast increasing production, technically superior to most gold miners being closer to its high.
Take a look at the engs est for 2011 and 2012. Eye Popping increase and very cheap on 2012 engs est if those engs come in close to expected, given the truly torrid increase in their sales and engs.
Like all the PM miners...if gold takes gas, Gold won't buy you that gold watch or mistress you've been eyeing.
If gold continues its recovery. There is a heck of a lot of leverage in GOLD from pe expansion potential and it's fast growth in sales and engs.
[mines in a politically secure area? Worth keeping in mind with any gold miner. RGLD, not sure]
Disclosure. I don't own GOLD preferring to keep my money in one's that will not make me rich cause rich would bring forth all sorts of evil temptations and I have no interest in doing the Devils Work. [subject to change]

Bonus interview--With Rob McEewen one of the most respected Mining executives who put togeher what is now Goldcorp [major home run] and is now running U.S. Gold UXG. Talks about how he is positioning UXG-his strategy.
It is clear, this guy knows exactly how to turn a small company and turn it into a big succesful company,. he explains how he is doing it. UXG is merging with Minera and he explains why. He will own 25% of the combined company...he put over $110 million of his own money in. [which is now worth $1/4 billion-he says he's "a little" in the money on that buy] . It is clear he plans on turning his stake into a $ billion.
The "problem" with the stock of UXG is that because of his huge reputation, investors bid UXG too high. [discounted way too much of the future]. The stock came way down, not due to any co problems.
I can't say if todays price is the time to buy but this is a good ceo interview if only from the standpoint of how a really top CEO thinks and operates. His long term strategic thinking.
http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo
F.