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How to Spot the Next Technology Breakthrough
Andrew Shipilov, INSEAD & Francesco Burelli , Arkwright Consulting AG 12 Mar 2024
My Summary, Highlights and Annotations[/b
In the summer of 2022, few people knew what Generative AI (GenAI) meant. Yet the launch of ChatGPT in November made everyone aware of this technology’s immense opportunities. Between the summer and fall of 2022, Gen AI passed an inflection point. High uncertainty about its performance gave way to increased confidence that the technology would affect businesses in a significant way.
From Uncertainty to Inflection Point to Confidence & Maturity
The evolution of new technologies follows an S-curve.
In the beginning, there is a long incubation period during which technological development and use are confined to basic science. This period is characterized by high uncertainty about the technology’s performance and there is virtually no confidence in the emergence of concrete business use cases. Eventually, there is an inflection point beyond which the performance and use cases of new technologies increase exponentially. At that time, uncertainty about their performance decreases rapidly while the confidence in their applications increases. Inflection points occur where old models and methods threaten to stifle innovation, change and growth, and require that new ways of working must be adopted.
Three simultaneous factors are required to reach the inflection point:
• Public attention: The public must be aware of the technology and what it can do.
• Investment: Funds must be spent on boosting the technology’s performance.
• Complements: These comprise products or services that combine with the technology to make it more valuable and augment its
performance. That is, there is a necessity, a mandate, to build a broad content ecosystem around the new technology.
System dynamics theory teaches that in complex systems, individual elements may mutually reinforce each other via feedback loops. In the case of technological transition, more attention may lead to more investment. More investment may then lead to even more attention, which will also make people look for new complements. These feedback loops can then push the technology forward, beyond the inflection point.
Rainmaker Worldwide Announces Formation of New Advisory Board
Peterborough, Ontario, Canada, March 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via NewMediaWire –
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rainmaker-worldwide-announces-formation-advisory-123100788.html
Rainmaker Worldwide Inc (OTC: RAKR), a global leader in innovative water technology solutions, is pleased to announce the formation of its new Advisory Board, comprising industry experts and seasoned executives. This advisory board will provide invaluable guidance as Rainmaker continues its mission to revolutionize the water industry and expand its global footprint.
https://mirandawater.com
Discovering Miranda’s Miracell® RBC (Rotating Biological Contactor): Environmental, Economic, Social, and Technological Advantages compared to Centralized Water Treatment Plants.
Michael Skinner CEO, Miranda Water Technologies. February 18, 2024
Executive Summary: Wastewater treatment is essential for protecting public health, preserving water resources, and maintaining environmental quality. Centralized water treatment plants have historically been the predominant approach for managing wastewater in urban and their adjacent rural areas. However, these plants face challenges related to energy consumption, infrastructure costs,…
Enhancing Energy Efficiency: A Deep Dive into Miranda Water Technologies’ RBC Systems vis-à-vis Traditional Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants.
John Gillis, Chair: Miranda Technology Advisory Committee. February 12, 2024
Executive Summary: Municipal wastewater treatment stands as a linchpin in safeguarding public health and environmental integrity. With a burgeoning focus on curbing operational costs and ecological impact, this paper delves into the energy efficiency of Rotating Bio-Contactors (RBC) pioneered by Miranda Water Technologies, juxtaposing them against conventional…
Quiet periods without press releases
I expect us to be relatively quiet as we execute on achieving our objectives. We will also continue to work on reducing expenses to give the Company the financial runway it needs to reach profitability. - anonymous
The rationale for the earlier divestiture and restructuring of RWI was to have RWI serve as a vehicle to acquire complementary technology and companies. As a private company, acquisitions, including the purchase of 100% of the common stock of Miranda, become easier to finance and operate.
The new majority owners significantly agreed to provide the necessary working capital to affect this and future transactions.
The Company has generated limited revenue up until the present time, and its operations for the past four years have been typically focused on business development, market research, technology research and development activities.
Management indicated on several occasions that they were all halted and suspended by the Covid-19 lockdown and its aftermath.
Bravo, well done
LWLG is a 1st mover tech company creating, from scratch, an electro-optical polymer semiconductor ecosystem that will allow the Internet to meet all its current and future needs without which it would become enfeebled by innumerable bottlenecks.
That's my elevator speech and I'm sticking with it.
CarlinNM - I came up with this list
LWLG Employees 6-23
Michael lebby, CEO
Jim Marcelli, President, COO
John Zyskind, Vice President of Engineering
Marwan Albarghouti, Director of Product Reliability
Reliability, Failure Analysis, Process Engineering, Statistics
Ginelle Ramann, Materials Team Manager
Felipe Lorenzo Della Lucia, Integrated Photonics Project Leader
Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brasil
Kaiyi Hou, Fabrication Process Engineer
ALD · Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) · Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) · UV/Vis Spectroscopy · Materials Testing · Research and Development (R&D) · MEMS · Semiconductor Industry · Silicon Photonics · Product Development · Photolithography · Process Design
Karteek Bejagam, Senior Research Scientist
Materials Science · Computational Modeling · DFT · Python (Programming Language) · Machine Learning
molecular-level structure and dynamics, establish structure-property relationships to train data-driven models for inverse materials design.
Hadi Rabbani, Photonic Integrated Circuit Specialist
Design and characterization of high-speed modulators based on a proprietary EO polymer
Gannon Kehe, Material Science Engineer
Polymer Chemistry · Materials Characterization
Patrick Riedel, Materials Science Engineer
Thin Film Characterization · Thin Film Coating
Mateo Powell Serrano, Photonics Test Engineer
Andres Damian, Photonics Test Engineer
Lee Gaherty, Microfabrication Process Engineer/Technician
Will (Duk Kyu) Yi, Synthetic Organic Chemist
Harvey Fulo, Synthetic Organic Chemist
Daniel R., Senior Mechanical Engineer
Jasper Drisko, Device Engineering Manager
Maeve Gray, Metrology Engineer
Zhiming Liu, Senior Photonics Microfabrication Device Engineer
Over 10 years of new product and process development in industrial settings
Ron Knapp, Facilities Manager
Mike Chen, Sr PI
Does anyone have a full listing of LWLG employees?
If so, please post.
Claudia Hössbacher has many keen insights applicable to the LWLG experience.
Another milestone in the slow but sure & steady commercialization of LWLG's E-O Polymer technology.
And all of this this is happening on the nano scale.
A typical atom is anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 nanometers in diameter.
Molecules are made up of atoms.
Nanoparticles are structures, 1-100 nanometres (nm) in size, containing only a few hundred atoms .
generative AI breakthroughs were decades in the making
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier?stcr=C9A75624B81C4A47AB66FFA090CEB42B&cid=other-eml-dre-mip-mck&hlkid=13ae1fd5d4c84f24885bc303be5e0efc&hctky=2579570&hdpid=adf0b84c-70f3-4eb7-985b-6540ee649c74#key-insights
generative AI breakthroughs were decades in the making
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier?stcr=C9A75624B81C4A47AB66FFA090CEB42B&cid=other-eml-dre-mip-mck&hlkid=13ae1fd5d4c84f24885bc303be5e0efc&hctky=2579570&hdpid=adf0b84c-70f3-4eb7-985b-6540ee649c74#key-insights
Tech hype is revolutionary change, tech reality is evolutionary progression.
Industries, not uncommonly, can move a bit slowly in the face of disruptive and transformative innovation.
Congratulations to the CalNano team for its partnership with Aerosint.
3D printing (aka additive manufacturing-AM) is one of the fundamental technologies of Industry 4.0. It saves time, cost and waste while creating radically new part architectures, representing the next frontier for industrial manufacturing.
New doors of opportunity will open for CalNano as it assists its partner to enhance their technologie
Check off the boxes
LWLG is a sunrise business and will be one for decades to come.
Check off the boxes.
? A sunrise industry is a new business or business sector showing potential for substantial and rapid growth.
? A sector that is growing rapidly and is expected to be a mainstay of the economy in the future.
? In sunrise industries, there is often a high degree of innovation.
? Creating an emerging growth sector that some believe will be the mainstay of the future economy..
? Developing a high-technology industry that holds promise of significant future development.
? An inherent concept that shows hope of a rapid boom for a developing sector or market in its infancy stage.
CalNano to Present at the LD Micro
California Nanotechnologies to Present at the LD Micro Invitational XIII
Newsfile Corp. Wed, May 24, 2023
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/california-nanotechnologies-present-ld-micro-120000151.html
The value of a business today is the sum of all the money it will make in the future.
When LWLG’s commercialization talks slow or stall the company innovates and obtains a patent to smooth over the technical sticking points.
Beware of FUD - Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt
Apparently all technological components and elements are in place and meet or exceed needed standards.
All await the signing of the first substantial contract.
Be still my heart.
a good summary by the good Dr.
Nanomaterial Technology Development and Usage
Nanotechnology creates nanoparticles with distinctive characteristics to meet the needs of the electronics, fabrics, cosmetics and biopharmaceutical industries. The assembly, manipulation, control and manufacture of nanoscale materials is considered to be the frontier of the 21st century in modern research. Nanotechnology has gained importance in the engineering and application of nanomaterials due to the fact that the physiochemical properties of materials are remarkably enhanced at nanoscale dimensions from their properties at their normal larger state.
The term “Nano” originates from a Greek word meaning “Dwarf” referring to a very small-sized object. It is also used as a prefix in science meaning 1 nm is equal to 1 millionth of mm or 1 billionth of m.
According to Precedence Research, the Nanomaterials Market Size will reach US$ 43B by 2030 with growth projected at a CAGR of 18.05% from 2022 to 2030. -June 17, 2022
By Application, key industries include:
• Aerospace
• Automotive
• Medical
• Energy & power
• Electronics
• Paints & Coatings
• Others
The aerospace application segment, for example, is expected to expand at a CAGR of 12.1% over the forecast period. Rising demand for lighter and more efficient aircraft has driven the rapid adoption of nanomaterials in aircraft and aerospace manufacturing.
Key Players include:
Strem Chemicals, Inc., American Elements, US Research Nanomaterials, Inc., Nanocomposix, Inc., Frontier Carbon Corporation, Nanoshel LLC, California Nanotechnologies Corp., SkySpring Nanomaterials, Inc., Nanophase Technologies Corporation, Cytodiagnostics, Inc., Quantum Materials Corp.
The U.S. market continues to grow due to increasing industry R&D activities. In addition, the U.S. government invests heavily in nanotechnology and coordinates work on nanomaterials with 20 government agencies.
A wide range of thermo-chemical methods are used to synthesize nanoparticles. In broad terms, the “Top-Down” approach utilizes physical manipulation and the “Bottom-Up” utilizes chemical transformation.
Another method, developed by a small company with major industry and government customers, combines Cryomilling and Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) technologies. It has recently gained industry notoriety due to notable successes that met and exceeded customers’ needs. Their proprietary cryomilling tech creates metallic and ceramic advanced powder systems. Applications for powders after cryomilling include Additive Manufacturing/3D printing, Advanced thermal spray coatings and making enhanced parts via Spark Plasma Sintering. In turn, their proprietary SPS technology reconstitutes powders to create high-performance materials with unique properties for advanced material research and manufacturing. This advanced consolidation technique allows for the rapid application of temperature and pressure via high-density pulsed current within a controlled atmosphere.
The company engages in the research, development & production of nanostructured components and materials. They are utilizing their unique technical expertise & vision to push the boundaries of applied material science for industry and US government agencies’ customers.
LWLG’s Sources and Uses of Cash for 2023
Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2022
MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.
LWLG’s Sources and Uses of Cash for 2023
• Increased spending in marketing as our products are introduced into the marketplace
• Partnering with commercial foundries to implement our electro-optic polymers into accepted PDKs by the foundries
It seems that just those two items speak volumes of past successes and successes to unfold in 2023.
Thermal Stability & Optical Performance Optimization Recap
LWLG E-O Polymers
LWLG E-O polymers are unique in their properties and have demonstrated thermal stability improvement each year between 2019 and 2022.
The Perkinamine (Pk) series average Figure of Merit (FOM 1) = r33 x thermal stability x photostability. The FOM 1 reflects the need for both high electro-optic activity and high stability for reliability.
And at the same time, LWLG is Maximizing Commercial FOM 1 for optical performance.
LWLG’s Perkinamine (Pk™) chromophores (an advanced type of dye) technology imparts electro-optical properties to its polymers.
Series 1, Series 2, Series 3, Series 4 and Series 5 Pk enhancements all maximized commercial FOM 1 for optical performance. LWLG’s Commercial Perkinamine™ series 5 Pk is the most advanced and performs better compared to earlier EO materials. In fact, It outperforms all previous chromophore designs significantly (high r33, thermal/photo stability).
The two developments have resulted in a powerful and durable nonlinear organic electro-optical (EO) material. This material is central to LWLG’s photonic device development work, currently on-going in foundries, to transmit data at higher speeds with less power.
LWLG’s Route to PDK acceptance
Foundry (small) -Flex PDKs (Fast cycle time)
Applied NanoTools (ANT)
SiEPIC Fab
LioniX Intl
Sandia national labs
Lignetic
Cornerstone
Microsystems
Leti cea tech
EUROPRACTICE IC Service
CompoundTek
Mosis
Foundry (large) -Std PDKs (Slow cycle time)
ST
Global foundries
TSMC
Tower conductor
Aim Photonics
Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF)
Imec
Partnering for success
• Partnering with foundries, packaging solution companies and module/transceiver manufacturers to position LWLG for future high-volume production
• Partnering with foundries using standard fabrication techniques to integrate polymer Process Development Kits (PDK)
• Generating technology evaluation & feedback
• Partnering with industry businesses to license the use of polymer materials that have been sourced, supplied and manufactured by LWLG
• Partnering with manufacturing facilities and foundries for fabrication and device design technology transfer
The polymer industry for fiber communications is growing quickly.
To have polymer modulators ubiquitous across the industry, key milestones are being achieved at record pace:
• advanced and mature electro-optic polymers are being created,
• simple and standard fabrication in large scale volume is evolving, and
• pluggable optical transceivers are incorporating packaged modulator devices
--to paraphrase Michael Lebby
"LWLG is not on the outside looking in. Everyone in the industry knows about LWLG and EO polymers. " --KCCO7913
Building out a Polymer SiPh Ecosystem is obviously taking longer than expected.
I look forward to some further clarification and specificity in this area from Dr. Michael Lebby.
Right on. LWLG is in the process of building and expanding a Polymer SiPh virtuous positive feedback loop that is the hallmark of great tech companies
Another way of stating your great explanation is to refer to the virtuous cycle of positive feedback, a complex chains of events that reinforce themselves through a feedback loop that generates favorable results.
AI, LWLG and SiPh GPU’s
Nvidia is the AI Engine
AI is becoming a GPT - general purpose tech
Does AI Lead to Kurzweil’s Singularity without Silicon Photonic GPUs
Jensen Huang and Michael Leeby are cut from similar tech molds and have a lot in common.
A momentous interview.
Comm’l-Class E-O chromophore enhanced Polymer Modulators
LWLG- The Tip of the SiPh Spear
CMOS foundries respond slowly to PIC platforms
Some say definitively that hybrid silicon photonics is far from a true CMOS play. Firstly, they point out, PDK libraries are incomplete and not optimized and foundries still expect users to characterize the building blocks.
Others give a more muted response. SiPh foundries are “pretty fixed in their PDKs and recipes because they run in CMOS,” says Michael Lebby. “When you’re a photonics company and have photonics dimensions, components, and designs, it doesn’t automatically fit. It’s actually difficult for the photonics industry to change their recipes/designs to fit the foundry PDKs? Sometimes it’s yes, sometimes it’s no.”
A big concern is whether silicon CMOS foundries are flexible enough for novel modulator/PIC platforms. “It’s an interesting question,” says Lebby. “We’ve seen foundries doing some good work. But this is the start and may require an effort to engineer through, or are we going to have problems?” Silicon foundries are attempting to take all of the new materials—like thin-film lithium niobate, barium titanate, plasmonics, indium phosphide, and others—and integrate them into CMOS platforms. “It’s not easy,” Lebby says.
Another point is that as an industry, silicon photonics still hasn’t clearly defined “hybrid.” For Lebby, it means it isn’t a pure play—it involves a different material. “It can be either frontend or backend,” he explains. “And the reason I say backend is if you look at the electronics industry, we’ve really gone to chip-scale packaging and the photonics industry is definitely heading in that direction. Chip-scale PICs, getting rid of the gold box packaging and the traditional package, chip-on-board and these types of directions are becoming increasingly important.” The packaging ecosystem doesn’t really exist in silicon photonics.
A further sticking point is that modeling software is “at best fair in silicon photonics,” Peter Winzer adds. Tape-outs are low in silicon photonics and it can take nine to 12 months to get chips back. MPWs (multi-project wafers) take even longer and it’s frustrating because it gets into a cycle of iteration, which is needed because there is no ‘first time is right’ design in silicon photonics.”
The IP vendor ecosystem that exists in digital CMOS and to some extent in analog CMOS doesn’t really exist in silicon photonics.
And finally, Winzer continues, “some of the foundries you tape-out with in silicon photonics, if you ask them: ‘Can I scale this up to several thousand wafers per year?’ They say: ‘not with me,’ and you’re stuck because you can’t transfer what you just developed with them to another foundry. You start from the very beginning, running test chips, running your test structures, and the whole development process starts from scratch.”
What has been LWLG’s role in this process and have they, in fact, facilitated solutions and worked passed these hurdles. LWLG’s E-O polymer modulators are compatible in Silicon, InP and GaAs foundries, although silicon offers the best opportunities to scale volume quickly and efficiently. The company is partnering with multiple foundries, packaging partners and module/transceiver partners to position LWLG for future high-volume production. They are also partnering to qualify polymer Process Development Kits (PDKs) with foundries using standard CMOS fabrication techniques. These deep activities with foundries for volume scaling appear to be bearing fruit as LWLG’s polymer slot modulator is in a CMOS/silicon compatible PDK.
Some wait with bated breath and the expectation that the answers will shortly be forthcoming, some just wait patiently .
The most important article I’ve read in the last twelve moths presenting the current state of SiPH and InP base materials and what obstacles hybrids and PICs face in CMOS foundries.