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BIG MTF Breakdown:
Monthly: BIG @ is @ multi-year lows in single digits.
Weekly: A surgical short signal was noted June 2021 by the yellow bar with "R" above when the tape became saturated with chasers over $70.
Daily Pro (institutions & algos noted by blue bars) activity in the mid to low teens 3/2 to 3/13 was followed by exhaustion selling (red dot) 3/29 before bullish divergence (blue dot) as BIG made multi-year lows 4/21.
Hourly: 2 heavy pockets of short chasing activity 4/17 & 4/21 were followed by pro activity at multi-year lows before support discovery @ $8.42 noted by the thick green horizontal line, confirmed the short term higher low. All of which made the 4/26 flush price pattern (salmon dot), a long signal.
Gold MTF Breakdown:
Legend:
Blue bars note the activity of institutions & algos.
Yellow bars with "R" below note heavy pockets of retail sell chasing activity, and vice versa for yellow bars with "R" above.
Horizontal lines of varying thickness: Notable pivots, the thicker the more important.
Green Background: Demand Zone/Support area
Red Background: Supply Zone/Resistance area
Buy "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to upside in a demand zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical green lines
Sell "warning" - print when a key pivot breaks to the downside in a supply zone - shown by timestamped dotted vertical red lines
Thin red lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro shorts
Thin green lines: notable trailing stop levels of pro longs
The 18K tick shows the short-term up trend and current consolidation.
9K Tick: The latest bounce attempt needs to clear $2011.50, to confirm the 200 ema (aqua line) resistance break.
500 Tick: Shows yesterday's bounce was faded by the pros. Then the retail short chasers stepped below $2K, only to get wrong-footed.
250 Tick: The 250 Tick shows what is likely more pro profit-taking/shorting before the sell "warning" printed when gold broke a key pivot to the downside in a supply zone.
$2012.20: The noted trailing stop level of pro shorts. If broken, to the upside, could invalidate the sell "warning."
Gold Pivots:
Gold's in a short-term (less than a year) uptrend but my shorter TF charts have been printing topping/pullback warnings.
Notable Pivots:
$2019.30 is a big one, resistance from last month. To the downside all key emas & vwap are important dynamic support as well as the following static pivots:
$1993.30, short-term support formed a couple weeks ago
$1935.50, just below the 200 ema (aqua line). It is a notable launchpad of the latest leg of the upside move from last month
The 4.5K tick notes $2011.20 as short-term resistance.
The 1.5K tick shows yesterday's intra-day high @ $2015 as short-term resistance.
Quick Gold MTF Update:
My biggest clue what the pros (institutions & algos shown by blue bars) are up to any given moment is always the location of their activity.
The 4.5K tick shows pros were profit-taking/going short 4/12 & 4/13 before dip buying/short covering 4/19.
The 1.5K tick shows the pros were very active in the latest short-term top, likely taking profits/going short.
The 1K tick shows that pros have been active in short-term tops since yesterday afternoon.
Barry was pretty excited about the Natty Gas long set up in yesterday's video. I don't blame him he's been patiently waiting for it along with myself and many others.
I'm swinging the BOIL $4 5/19 calls @ .25.
The 15 minute notes the activity of institutions & algos (blue bars) into the dip 4/19 and today, as NG made a short-term higher low.
CDLX 500 Tick:
This is the name I'm most actively trading, the others are short-term call swings.
Surgical signals, both short & long
1) Twin bearish RAMBOs power hour 4/4
2) Twin bullish RAMBO triplets 4/5 with a flush pattern (salmon dot), combined for one of the strongest long signals produced by the Better Indis
6 names at the top of my watchlist:
EDIT
SAGE
VKTX
YEXT
AXSM
CDLX
Barry mentioned a possible long signal in crude and another in NG in his latest vid., I like the NG signal a lot more.
A quick look @ the hourly shows all 6 bounce attempts in April. The latest one notes the first time in months NG has actually held a majority of an upside move, specifically the 4/14 to 4/18 move.
Also of note is the tight cluster of emas, especially compared to late March, when the pros were stair stepping in short, shown by the red staircase which noted their trailing stop levels on the way down.
NASDAQ Futures 65K Tick:
I have reposted the 65K tick numerous times b/c of its high predictive value, the foundational reason I enjoy posting all my charts :)
From 3/6 to present:
1) Pro profit-taking 3/6
2) Retail shorts getting wrong-footed on the heels of the banking crisis 3/13
3) Pro profit-taking 3/31
4) Pro dip buying 4/6
5) Exhaustion price pattern (red) dot 4/12, an aggressive long signal on the back of the pro dip buying
6) Bullish divergence (blue dot) when testing the 200 ema (aqua line), 4/21 a more conservative long signal on the back of the pro dip duying.
Key Levels Above:
The tight cluster of emas above
Supply over $13.2K, needed to break to the upside to confirm the latest bull flag likely in progress now
Below:
Support formed AH 4/20 @ $13,021.50
200 ema (aqua line)
A key trailing stop level of the 4/6 pro dip buyers @ $12,953.25, a break below triggers a triple sell signal
CDLX 500 Tick:
1) The heads up to take profits was noted by twin yellow bars with "R" above, power hour 4/4 when the tape was getting saturated with long chasers.
2) Vice versa 4/5, the 6 yellow bars with "R" below note when the tape was dominated by retail short chasers, a very strong long signal, made stronger by the flush price pattern (salmon dot).
Gold MTF Breakdown:
The monthly and weekly show the short-term (less than a year) uptrend and the following:
1) Gold is below vwap (purple line) and above all key emas (10 - 200).
2) There is a notable supply zone b/w the March 2022 high just above $2155 & the August 2020 high just below $2200.
Gold is testing the 30 ema (red line) on the daily.
Gold is b/w the 10 ema (white line), below, & vwap, above, on the hourly.
$1982.20 is notable support made 4/19 then successfully tested 4/21.
The 15 minutes notes pros (blue bars) are net short with a trailing stop level @ $2009.30, a break above will print a buy "warning" such as the one 4/19 shown by the timestamped dotted vertical green line when gold broke a key level to the upside just under the 200 ema (aqua line).
AXSM
MTF Breakdown:
Monthly:
1) Pro (institutions & algos noted by blue bars) accumulation August 2022 to February 2023
2) Now above vwap and all key emas
3) December 2022 high of $82 is a key topside pivot
Weekly: The 50 ema (green line) was first support last month before 2 weeks ago, acting as a launchpad for the most recent move.
Daily: AXSM has a history of explosive bounces off the 200 ema (aqua line):
1) August 2022
2) October 2022
3) April 2023
Hourly: The green staircase notes key trailing stop levels of pro longs who helped power the most recent move by both accumulating under $60 then adding on the way up.
NASDAQ Futures 65K Tick:
Follow the blue (institutions & algos shown by blue bars) & fade the yellow (retail short chasers noted with yellow bars with "R" below & vice versa).
Areas of note the last 6 weeks:
1) Pro profit-taking 3/6
2) Retail short chasers getting wrong-footed on the heels of the banking crisis 3/13
3) Pro profit-taking 3/31
4) Pro dip buying 4/6
5) Exhaustion price pattern (red dot) 4/12, an aggressive long signal on the back of the pro dip buying
6) Support discovery @ $13,021.50 noted by the horizontal green line that started forming after hours
Other Key Levels:
200 ema (aqua line)
$12,953.25 shown by the horizontal green line which notes a key trailing stop level of the 4/6 pro dip buyers, a break below will print a triple signal sell alert (timestamped dotted vertical red line).
Indeed. I took another cut in some $3.50 calls expiring Friday @ .11. I like the odds of a bounce. $3.42 is just a nickel from where the breakout started as noted by the vertical line that printed pre-market 4/17 when $3.37 broke to the upside.
It coincides with the 200 ema (aqua line) retest on the NG hourly. The last foray over the 200 was the first one in months, on 4/9 that eventually failed when the 200 gave way 4/12. Then 4/16 NG gapped over the 200, popped, now the 200 retest.
Also, BOIL actually tracks the July contract closer than the May. In the July contract, there is notable pro activity at the lows and an absence of pro activity at the most recent short-term top over $2.70.
NASDAQ Futures 1.5K Tick:
Pros (institutions & algos shown by blue bars) playing the range amidst bullish consolidaiton.
First pro near low of session dip buying fueled the buy alert shown by the timestamped dotted vertical green line. Then power hour pro buying drove the reclamation of key emas. The last tranche of pro activity into the close and after hours is likely more profit-taking than shorting because immediately after the pro activity, retail (yellow bars) was again selling into major support.
BOIL
1.5K Tick:
The yellow bar with "R" below that noted the tape was saturated with short chasers pre-market 4/14 was the surgical long entry below $3, confirmed that afternoon by pro (institution and algo activity shown by the blue bars) accumulation right above the 200 ema (aqua line). Today, the long chasers joined the party as seen by the 3 yellow bars with "R" on top. However, the subsequent bounce off the 30 ema (red line) indicates a much higher likelihood of pullback than reversal. Overall, a strong bullish look.
I'm long again via the $4 4/28 calls @ .18 avg.
Looking to reload on dips. Looks strong so far.
Areas of Note the Last Month in NASDAQ Futures:
1) Pro (activity of institutions and algos shown by the blue bars) profit-taking 3/6
2) The yellow bar with "R" below shows retail shorts getting wrong-footed on the heels of the banking crisis 3/13
3) Pro profit-taking 3/31
4) Pro dip buying 4/6
5) $13,000 support retest then bounce signaled by exhaustion price pattern (red dot) 4/12
6) Now, topside bullish consolidation
Key Levels Below:
All key emas & vwap
Above: 4/14 high, just above the horizontal red line @ $13,247.25
MSTR
31 Tick:
I took a shot in puts but my timing was off, I was too early. I should have waited for the play to develop if you will: twin bearish RAMBOs 4/13 were the first topping warning then pro bars right afterwards confirmed the profit-taking, triggering the first sell alert less than 3 minutes before the close of the after-hours session 4/13 as shown by the timestamped dotted vertical red line. The following session 4/14 the pro profit-taking was immediate and 35 minutes after the opening bell the second sell alert @ $345 was triggered, that was the puts entry I SHOULD have patiently waited for.
EDIT
1.5K, 500 Tick & 5 Minute:
On the 1.5K tick, pros (institutions and algos shown by blue bars) were accumulating heavily 3/31 to 4/3 & again 4/6 to 4/10. Then shorts got overly aggressive and were forced to say "no mas" when trying to breach $6.50, as noted by the yellow bar with "R" below, a surgical long signal 4/12, confirmed on the 500 tick by the triple buy signal the following session, 4/13, noted by the timestamped dotted vertical green line less than an hour after open. Now on the 1.5K tick EDIT is threatening to break multi-month resistance shown by the thick horizontal green line. After the 200 ema (aqua line) @ $7.95, there is a lot of clean real estate to $9.50.
In addition to another confirmatory buy alert 40 minutes after open 4/13, the 5 minute notes a key hurdle of $7.76 on the way to the 200 ema @ $7.95 on the 1.5K tick.
Full disclosure, I'm long CDLX $7.50 4/21 high risk lottos since they expire Friday and also
EDIT $7.50 4/21 $7.50 & $8 calls.
1000% in 30 Minutes in BLK $700 4/14 Calls:
I actually spotted this opportunity pre-market but it went up so fast I stupidly held off because I thought I was chasing. Boy was that a mistake!
It again shows the best technical signals in the world are of little use without the requisite conviction, patience, and flawless execution. That's what makes what I'm trying to do so hard, but so fun, I love the challenge of constantly learning and striving to do better next time.